700% crypto outflows after Iran strikes

March 02, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

War shock hits crypto: 700% Iran outflows, Bitcoin whipsaws on oil fears

Key points:

  • Crypto outflows from Iran’s largest exchange surged 700% within minutes of U.S.-Israeli strikes, signaling possible capital flight.

  • Bitcoin dropped toward $63,000 before rebounding above $68,000 as markets digested oil risks, liquidity stress, and debasement narratives.

News - Geopolitical shockwaves rippled across crypto markets over the weekend after coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered both immediate capital flight and sharp price volatility.

Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic reported that outgoing transactions from Iranian exchange Nobitex jumped 700% within minutes of the first strikes. Initial tracing suggests funds moved to overseas exchanges, potentially bypassing domestic banking controls. Nobitex, which processed $7.2 billion in crypto transactions in 2025 and claims more than 11 million users, has previously been linked to sanction-related flows and central bank efforts to support the rial.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin reacted in real time. BTC fell from roughly $65,500 to near $63,000 as the total crypto market cap shed $128 billion and $449 million in long positions were liquidated. Prices later rebounded above $68,000 before stabilizing around the mid-$66,000 range.

Oil climbed to a 15-month high of $79.84 as traders assessed risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor responsible for roughly 20% of global crude supply.

Oil, liquidity, and the $100 question - Market participants are now focused on whether crude could push toward $100. Analysts warn that sustained energy inflation could delay rate cuts, lift yields, and pressure liquidity-sensitive assets like Bitcoin. Historically, BTC has underperformed during initial oil spikes but recovered in subsequent months.

Panic online, patience on-chain - Despite “World War 3” chatter surging across crypto social platforms, on-chain data suggests limited capitulation. CryptoQuant data shows short-term holder sell pressure has faded since early February, with no significant spike in loss-driven exchange inflows during the latest dip.

Some analysts argue that prolonged conflict could revive the “debasement trade,” pushing investors toward scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin if central banks turn accommodative.

For now, crypto appears to be pricing contained escalation rather than systemic collapse.

Strategy buys $204M BTC as Pompliano averages down in market slump

Key points:

  • Strategy added 3,015 BTC for $204.1M, lifting total holdings to 720,737 BTC acquired for about $54.77B at an average cost of $75,985 per coin.

  • Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap bought 450 BTC and repurchased 782,408 shares, tightening its discount to NAV while lowering its cost basis.

News - Corporate Bitcoin accumulation did not slow during the latest market pullback.

Strategy completed its 101st Bitcoin purchase last week, acquiring 3,015 BTC at an average price of $67,700, according to an SEC filing. The $204.1 million buy increases its total holdings to 720,737 BTC, acquired for roughly $54.77 billion. The company’s aggregate average purchase price now stands near $75,985 per coin.

The purchase was funded through approximately $229.9 million in common stock sales and $7.1 million in net proceeds from its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, STRC.

Bitcoin traded around $66,000 on Monday morning, while MSTR shares were largely flat in early trading after rising from about $125 to nearly $130 during the prior week.

Separately, ProCap Financial purchased 450 BTC, lifting total holdings to 5,457 BTC and making it the 19th largest publicly traded corporate holder. The firm also repurchased 782,408 shares over the past 10 days at a significant discount to net asset value.

Buying below cost basis - Strategy’s latest acquisition was executed well below its $75,985 average cost basis. It marks one of a limited number of purchases made during periods when market prices traded under the firm’s cumulative entry level. A similar dynamic occurred during the 2022–2023 downturn.

ProCap framed its approach as dual capital discipline: averaging down on Bitcoin while buying back equity when mispriced relative to intrinsic value.

Preferred shares vs equity dilution - Strategy recently raised its STRC dividend to 11.50% for March 2026, up from 11.25%, marking the seventh increase since July 2025. The company prices STRC monthly to keep shares near $100 par value, offering a lower-volatility funding route compared to common equity.

With Bitcoin down nearly 24% year-to-date and MSTR lower by 14.77% over the same period, the accumulation model is now being tested under drawdown conditions.

Hong Kong taps Shanghai for blockchain trade rails as crypto ETFs slide

Key points:

  • Hong Kong and Shanghai authorities signed an MoU to study a blockchain-based cross-border platform linking cargo trade data, electronic bills of lading, and finance under Project Ensemble.

  • While Shanghai equities hit a 10-year high, Hong Kong-listed crypto ETFs fell 2% to 3%, highlighting diverging capital flows.

News - Hong Kong is advancing its digital infrastructure ambitions even as regional crypto markets face renewed pressure.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), the Shanghai Data Bureau, and the National Technology Innovation Center for Blockchain signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly study a blockchain-based cross-border platform for cargo trade and trade finance. The proposed system will interlink trade data, electronic bills of lading, and financing applications under the HKMA’s Project Ensemble framework.

The initiative will build on Hong Kong’s Commercial Data Interchange, launched in 2022, and Project CargoX to enhance data-sharing capabilities for institutional lending and cross-border trade services. Officials described the agreement as a milestone in digital cooperation aimed at strengthening integration between Shanghai’s supply chains and Hong Kong’s international-facing financial infrastructure.

In a separate policy track, Hong Kong’s Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury proposed expanding tax concessions to include digital assets held by investment funds and family offices, subject to approval.

A tale of two markets - The infrastructure push comes against a sharply divided market backdrop. Shanghai’s Composite Index closed at 4,182.6, its highest level since June 2015, with investors rotating into energy, gold, defense, and shipping stocks.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index dropped more than 2% to a two-month low. Spot crypto ETFs listed in the city declined across the board, with ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF down 2%, Bosera HashKey Bitcoin ETF off 2.3%, and Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF losing 2.4%.

Capital stays onshore - Mainland investors remain barred from directly accessing Hong Kong’s spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. With the National People’s Congress set to open March 5, investors are watching for policy signals as domestic equities rally.

Global crypto fund outflows have now stretched to five consecutive weeks, totaling $4 billion. Against that backdrop, Hong Kong’s blockchain trade rails signal long-term infrastructure ambition, even as near-term crypto flows remain constrained.

Korea’s tax agency exposes seed phrase, loses $4.8M in seized crypto

Key points:

  • South Korea’s National Tax Service lost roughly $4.8 million in seized PRTG tokens after publishing a photo that revealed a hardware wallet’s mnemonic seed phrase.

  • Deputy Prime Minister Koo Yun-cheol has ordered a cross-agency review of how seized digital assets are managed following repeated custody failures.

News - South Korea’s National Tax Service is facing scrutiny after a press release photo exposed the full recovery phrase of a seized hardware wallet, allowing unknown actors to drain approximately 4 million Pre-Retogeum (PRTG) tokens valued at about 6 billion won, or $4.8 million.

The image was distributed during a February 26 press event highlighting enforcement actions against high-value tax delinquents. Authorities later acknowledged that sensitive information had been included in the original photo and apologized, accepting full responsibility.

According to blockchain data and police reports cited in coverage of the incident, the wallet was accessed twice within 24 hours. One individual, who described himself as an ordinary investor, reportedly transferred the tokens and later returned the full balance. Coverage further stated that within hours of that return, a second actor moved the assets again to a wallet flagged for phishing activity.

The NTS has requested police assistance and pledged an external review of its security systems, along with an overhaul of procedures governing the seizure and sale of digital assets.

Not an isolated incident - The leak marks at least the second high-profile custody failure involving seized crypto in South Korea. In a separate case involving 22 BTC seized in connection with a hacking investigation, authorities lost access to the funds after relying on a third-party custodian and failing to retain control of private keys. The case drew scrutiny over how seized digital assets were handled.

Separate reporting has also noted that prosecutors temporarily lost control of 320 BTC in recent months, further intensifying concerns about custody safeguards.

Cross-agency reform ordered - Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol announced that the government, alongside the Financial Services Commission and Financial Supervisory Service, will inspect how digital assets are seized and managed across public institutions.

Koo emphasized that the state does not hold digital assets beyond those obtained through law enforcement actions and pledged to strengthen security controls to prevent recurrence.

The incident has intensified debate over whether public sector agencies are equipped to securely manage digital assets as crypto enforcement activity increases.

Did you know?

  • Geopolitical shockwaves are visibly shaping crypto market sentiment in real time: Amid ongoing Middle East tensions in early March 2026, Bitcoin and major altcoins like Ethereum and XRP saw sharp volatility, dipping then rebounding, as investors grappled with whether crypto behaves as a risk asset or safe haven during geopolitical escalations.

  • Bitcoin derivatives markets are signaling a renewed broader price narrative: Options traders across major exchanges are increasingly positioning for a potential $90,000 Bitcoin rebound, with analytical data indicating early signs of a market base forming after recent volatility, evidence that institutional and derivative-led sentiment is actively shaping crypto outlooks.

  • Pakistan’s crypto policy is entering a make-or-break legislative phase: In February 2026, Pakistan’s Senate standing committee approved a draft Virtual Asset Act, a bill that would formally legalize crypto trading and empower the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) to license and supervise exchanges, pushing the country closer to officially regulated crypto markets after years of informal use.

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Top 3 coins of the day

XDC Network (XDC)

Key points:

  • XDC advanced to $0.0339 after posting a 5.44% daily gain, bouncing from the $0.0322 support region while still trading within a broader declining structure.

  • Parabolic SAR stayed above price and -DI remained ahead of +DI on the DMI, signaling that sellers retain directional control despite the rebound.

What you should know:

On the daily timeframe, XDC rebounded after multiple tests of the $0.0322 area. The latest candle pushed toward the $0.0345 swing high, which now acts as immediate resistance within the recent consolidation band.

However, the broader structure has continued to form lower highs since December. The Parabolic SAR remains above the candles, indicating that downside pressure has not fully faded. On the DMI, -DI at 25.02 stayed above +DI at 19.08, while ADX near 14.94 reflected weak trend strength rather than a confirmed breakout. Volume improved but did not show aggressive expansion.

The move aligned with renewed social attention around XDC’s participation at the RWA & Stablecoins London Summit 2026, alongside a reported 40% jump in trading activity. Resistance stands at $0.0345, while $0.0322 remains the level to monitor for support.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

Key points:

  • After reclaiming ground above $1.15, NEAR traded around $1.20 following a 4.09% daily climb, building on its recovery from the $1.09 region.

  • Candles gravitated toward the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, while CMF held at 0.09, reflecting sustained but measured buying pressure.

What you should know:

The daily structure showed NEAR attempting to rebuild momentum after February’s sharp decline toward $1.00. Recent sessions formed a sequence of higher lows, and the latest candle stretched to roughly $1.23 before easing slightly, suggesting buyers maintained control into the close.

Bollinger Bands indicated price transitioning from lower-band compression into a mid-band reclaim phase. This shift typically signals improving stability rather than immediate breakout conditions. The CMF remained positive at 0.09, confirming that capital inflows have outweighed outflows over the recent window. Volume expanded gradually compared to the mid-February trough, supporting the recovery attempt.

The advance appeared tied to broader altcoin rotation rather than coin-specific developments. Resistance is positioned near $1.23, while $1.14 acts as near-term support and $1.09 anchors the broader base.

Morpho (MORPHO)

Key points:

  • Morpho traded near $1.81 after gaining 4.01% on the daily chart, extending its rally from the $1.10 base formed in mid-February.

  • Price tracked along the upper Bollinger Band while the Squeeze Momentum histogram continued expanding in green, signaling sustained upside strength supported by firm volume.

What you should know:

Momentum in MORPHO did not stall after its recent breakout phase. The latest daily session briefly tested $1.82 before holding above $1.80, keeping the asset near the upper end of its recent expansion range. The advance followed a decisive push away from the $1.10 pivot that marked February’s inflection point.

Instead of retracing toward the mid-band, price stayed close to the upper Bollinger Band, a behavior often seen in strong directional phases. At the same time, the Squeeze Momentum histogram continued building taller green bars, suggesting that upside pressure is still strengthening rather than flattening. Trading activity also stayed firm relative to the earlier consolidation period, supporting the persistence of the move.

The next ceiling sits at $1.82, while $1.70 operates as the first layer of support and $1.60 anchors the broader structure.

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