ADA soars—Is an ETF coming?

February 11, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

ADA jumps 15% as Grayscale pushes for first Cardano ETF

Key points:

  • Grayscale has applied to list a Cardano (ADA) ETF on the NYSE, marking its first standalone ADA investment product.

  • ADA’s price surged 15% following the news, outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum, while trading volume jumped 60% to $1.25 billion.

News - Grayscale has officially filed for a spot Cardano ETF through NYSE Arca, signaling growing institutional interest in ADA. If approved, the ETF would trade under the ticker “GADA” and provide investors with regulated exposure to Cardano without the need for direct asset ownership.

This move follows Grayscale’s recent applications for Solana and XRP ETFs, indicating a broader shift toward altcoin-based investment products. The SEC’s evolving stance on crypto ETFs—especially under the Trump administration—has emboldened asset managers to push for regulatory approval.

ADA price reacts to ETF filing - Following the ETF announcement, ADA’s price spiked 15% to $0.797, leading the broader crypto market in daily gains. Trading volume surged by over 60% to $1.25 billion, boosting buying pressure.

Additional factors contributing to ADA’s rally include:

  • Massive short liquidations – Over $1.76 million in ADA short positions were wiped out, further fueling the price increase.

  • Technical momentum – ADA is forming a bull flag pattern, which historically signals the potential for a breakout toward $3.50 if key resistance levels hold.

What’s next?

  • If approved, Grayscale’s Cardano ETF could drive institutional adoption, bringing more liquidity into ADA.

  • Regulatory challenges remain—the SEC previously classified Cardano as a security, which could delay approval.

  • In the short term, ADA must hold above $0.75 to sustain its bullish momentum and continue its rebound.

As altcoin ETF approvals gain traction, market observers are watching whether ADA will follow Solana and XRP in securing regulatory approval.

Bitcoin’s supply on exchanges hits 3-year low: Is a supply shock incoming?

Key points:

  • Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to 2.5 million BTC, the lowest level since 2022, signaling potential supply constraints.

  • Long-term holders continue accumulating, while institutional demand from ETFs remains strong, adding pressure to BTC’s available supply.

News - Bitcoin’s supply on cryptocurrency exchanges has fallen to a three-year low of 2.5 million BTC, according to CryptoQuant data. This decline suggests that more BTC is being withdrawn into long-term storage, potentially setting the stage for a supply shock as demand remains steady.

Historically, a supply squeeze leads to price appreciation, as fewer BTC are available for trading while institutional and retail investors compete to buy. The ongoing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs—despite some fluctuations—are contributing to this tightening supply.

Institutional accumulation & market resilience - Despite the largest daily selling pressure since the Three Arrows Capital collapse in 2022, Bitcoin has shown resilience, holding firm above $95,000 support. Analysts suggest this is a sign of “seller exhaustion”, meaning bearish momentum may be fading.

However, short-term ETF inflows remain mixed, with $186 million in net outflows recorded on February 10, briefly reversing a prior day’s inflows of $171 million. This back-and-forth suggests ongoing market uncertainty, but with institutions like BlackRock and Strategy continuing to acquire BTC, demand remains strong.

What’s next?

  • If Bitcoin maintains $95,000 support, bullish momentum could push prices toward $100,000 and beyond.

  • A break below $95,000 could trigger $1.52 billion in liquidations, potentially leading to a deeper correction.

  • The long-term outlook remains positive, with analysts predicting a rally to $160,000–$180,000 by the end of 2025 as institutional accumulation outpaces new supply.

For now, Bitcoin’s shrinking exchange reserves and strong holder demand suggest a tightening supply, a scenario that historically precedes major price breakouts.

Analysts rank Dogecoin ETF above Solana and XRP: Here’s why

Key points:

  • Dogecoin is now considered more likely than Solana or XRP to receive SEC approval for an ETF, as analysts expect it to be classified as a commodity.

  • DOGE’s price jumped 7%, with holding time among investors increasing by 302%, signaling strong confidence and reduced selling pressure.

News - In a surprising turn, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas believe that Dogecoin has a higher chance of receiving an ETF approval than Solana or XRP. Their reasoning? The SEC’s new Crypto Task Force may classify Dogecoin as a commodity, putting it under CFTC jurisdiction, rather than labeling it a security.

This classification could ease regulatory scrutiny, improving DOGE’s chances of an ETF approval. In contrast, Solana and XRP face greater legal hurdles, with the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple still unresolved.

Meanwhile, asset managers like Grayscale and Bitwise are pushing for new altcoin ETFs, including one for Dogecoin, as institutional interest in memecoins rises.

Dogecoin’s price rallies amid bullish sentiment - Beyond ETF speculation, DOGE’s price climbed 7% in the last 24 hours, outperforming much of the market. This rally is backed by:

  • Holding time surge – DOGE’s average holding period increased by 302%, reducing selling pressure and indicating strong investor confidence.

  • Positive funding rates – Futures market sentiment remains bullish, with funding rates at 0.0040%, suggesting increased long positions.

  • Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) rising – A CMF score of 0.06 signals strong buying momentum, supporting DOGE’s uptrend.

What’s next?

  • If bullish momentum continues, DOGE could push toward $0.32, with strong market support.

  • If selling pressure returns, a drop to $0.24 or even $0.19 is possible.

  • The SEC’s evolving stance on crypto may determine whether a Dogecoin ETF sees the light of day, with analysts expecting more regulatory clarity in late 2025.

For now, investors are watching both DOGE’s ETF prospects and its growing price momentum, as memecoins gain renewed market traction.

SEC and Binance agree to 60-day pause: Crypto regulation in flux

Key points:

  • The SEC and Binance have jointly filed for a 60-day pause in their legal case, citing the impact of the newly launched SEC Crypto Task Force.

  • This move signals a potential shift from aggressive enforcement to clearer regulations, with other crypto firms like Ripple, Coinbase, and Kraken expected to follow suit.

News - In a landmark development, the SEC and Binance have agreed to pause their ongoing legal battle for 60 days, marking the first major break in crypto litigation since Mark Uyeda took over as acting SEC chair.

The Crypto Task Force, led by SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, is expected to play a key role in shaping clearer regulatory guidelines for digital assets, shifting away from the heavy-handed enforcement approach seen under former SEC Chair Gary Gensler.

A joint statement from Binance and the SEC suggests that the task force’s work could influence the resolution of this case, potentially setting a precedent for future crypto lawsuits.

What this means for the crypto industry:

  • Potential precedent for other cases – Analysts believe that Ripple, Coinbase, and Kraken could file similar motions, seeking resolution under this evolving regulatory framework.

  • Shifting market sentiment – The SEC’s decision to pause this case aligns with broader policy shifts, including President Donald Trump’s recent executive order favoring crypto-friendly regulations.

  • Regulatory uncertainty remains – While the task force aims to provide clarity, the SEC has not yet indicated how altcoins like XRP, SOL, and ADA will be classified under its new framework.

What’s next?

  • After 60 days, the SEC and Binance will issue a joint report assessing whether further legal action is necessary.

  • If this shift continues, crypto firms may face fewer legal battles and more structured regulations moving forward.

  • Crypto industry leaders, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have called for the SEC to drop “frivolous cases”—a sentiment that could gain traction with this new regulatory shift.

For now, the pause in enforcement suggests that the SEC’s stance on crypto may be evolving, potentially paving the way for a more collaborative approach to regulation.

Interesting facts

  • Despite facing increased regulatory scrutiny and market volatility in 2023, Bitcoin demonstrated resilience by maintaining its position as the leading cryptocurrency. Its sustained adoption and integration into various financial systems underscored its enduring appeal and adaptability.

  • In November 2024, a U.S. appeals court ruled that the Treasury Department overstepped its authority by sanctioning Tornado Cash, a cryptocurrency mixer accused of facilitating money laundering. The court determined that Tornado Cash's immutable smart contracts do not constitute property subject to regulation under existing laws, marking a significant decision in the realm of crypto regulation.

  • In early 2025, discussions emerged about the U.S. government potentially creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, similar to its oil reserves. This proposal aims to position the U.S. as a leading Bitcoin power and reflects the growing institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies.

Top 3 coins of the day

Cardano (ADA)

Key points:

  • ADA ranked among the top gainers today, surging 13.86% and signaling a resurgence in bullish sentiment.

  • A strong rebound from recent lows, coupled with rising trading volume, suggested renewed investor confidence.

What you should know:

ADA experienced a 13.86% jump, climbing from a low of $0.71 to a high of $0.82 before settling at $0.81. The Bollinger Bands expansion highlighted increased volatility, with the price rebounding from the lower band, indicating strong accumulation. The Awesome Oscillator (AO), which had been in negative territory, showed early signs of shifting momentum as green bars emerged, hinting at a potential bullish crossover. Moreover, the significant increase in trading volume reflected renewed investor interest, reinforcing the strength of the recovery. If this momentum persists, ADA could challenge the $0.84 resistance level, with a breakout potentially driving the price toward $1.06, a key psychological barrier. However, if buying pressure weakens, the price might consolidate near the $0.75–$0.78 range before making another decisive move. A failure to hold above $0.71 could expose ADA to further downside risks, with support near $0.62 coming into play.

Helium (HNT)

Key points:

  • At press time, HNT was trading at $4.05, reflecting an 8.99% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • It was among the top gainers in today's market, signaling renewed bullish sentiment.

What you should know:

HNT saw a strong upward move, surging past the $4 mark after a prolonged period of downward momentum. The bounce from recent lows suggested a resurgence in buyer interest, as indicated by the rising volume. The 9-day SMA flipped into a support zone, aiding the recovery. Moreover, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed a strengthening trend, with the +DI line gaining dominance over the -DI line, hinting at growing bullish momentum. However, for sustained growth, HNT needs to hold above the 9-day SMA, currently at $3.51, to maintain upward traction. On the resistance side, $4.20 is the next hurdle, aligning with a previous rejection point. A successful breakout above this could fuel further gains toward $5.00. Conversely, falling below $3.80 might indicate weakness, potentially leading to a retest of the $3.50 support level. Traders should closely monitor DMI strength and volume trends for confirmation of continued bullish pressure.

Mantra (OM)

Key points:

  • At press time, OM was trading at $5.99, reflecting a 1.20% decline over the last 24 hours.

  • Despite the dip, OM has been on a strong upward trajectory, with the RSI hovering near 65, indicating strong momentum but approaching overbought levels.

What you should know:

OM encountered a slight correction after reaching an intra-day high of $6.13, but the broader trend has remained bullish. The Parabolic SAR dots positioned below the price candles confirmed the continuation of the uptrend, reinforcing the asset's strength in the market. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 65.53 suggested that buying pressure had been strong, but the token was nearing an overbought zone, which could trigger a slowdown or consolidation in the short term. Additionally, the trading volume remained relatively high, reflecting sustained investor interest despite the recent dip. Moving forward, $6.50 could act as the next resistance level to watch, while $5.50 may serve as an immediate support zone. A breach above the resistance could validate further bullish continuation, whereas failure to hold the support might lead to short-term profit-taking.

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