Altcoin season still not here

December 23, 2025

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Altcoin season remains elusive as market data points to a prolonged Bitcoin-led cycle

Key points:

  • Market data shows no meaningful signs of an altcoin revival, with Bitcoin dominance rising and altcoin breadth remaining weak.

  • Analysts increasingly expect capital to stay concentrated in Bitcoin and a small group of high-conviction assets through 2026.

News - Hopes for a broad altcoin comeback continue to fade as Bitcoin strengthens its hold over the crypto market. Multiple market indicators suggest that capital rotation into altcoins remains limited, with institutional flows and trader behavior reinforcing a prolonged Bitcoin-led cycle rather than a return to a traditional altcoin season.

The total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin, tracked through the TOTAL2 index, has fallen sharply since its October peak. After reaching $1.77 trillion, TOTAL2 has dropped to roughly $1.19 trillion, losing key technical support levels in the process. 

Analysts note that bearish signals across long-term indicators continue to dominate, pointing to further downside risk if current structures fail to hold.

Altcoin breadth remains compressed - Market participation across altcoins remains narrow. Only a small fraction of tokens are outperforming Bitcoin, and broad-based strength has yet to re-emerge. 

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index remains deep in Bitcoin territory, indicating that fewer than one-fifth of major altcoins have outperformed BTC over the past 90 days.

Ethereum’s underperformance has further reinforced this trend. Historically, sustained altcoin rallies have often relied on Ethereum leading relative gains. Its recent weakness compared with Bitcoin has weakened expectations for a wider recovery across the sector.

Institutions keep capital anchored to Bitcoin - Bitcoin dominance has been trending higher again after briefly cooling earlier in the year. Analysts attribute this shift largely to institutional behavior following the success of spot Bitcoin ETFs. 

Capital inflows have continued to favor Bitcoin due to its liquidity profile, regulatory clarity, and perceived resilience.

Several analysts now argue that future market cycles may look structurally different from past “rising tide” rallies. Rather than lifting the entire altcoin market, liquidity is expected to remain selective, favoring a smaller set of so-called blue-chip assets with established adoption.

Looking ahead to 2026 - While some forecasts project higher long-term Bitcoin prices, expectations for a broad altcoin season remain muted. Analysts suggest that liquidity conditions heading into 2026 are unlikely to support widespread speculative rotations, leaving many altcoins struggling to regain relative strength in a Bitcoin-dominated market.

Bitcoin lags as gold dominates the safe-haven trade

Key points:

  • Gold continues to outperform Bitcoin as retail and institutional capital gravitates toward traditional safe-haven assets.

  • Despite short-term weakness and heavy derivatives positioning, long-term institutional conviction in Bitcoin remains intact.

News - Bitcoin remained range-bound below $90,000 as gold pushed toward fresh all-time highs, highlighting a widening divergence between crypto and traditional safe-haven assets. 

While precious metals attracted sustained demand supported by gold-backed ETF inflows and defensive positioning, Bitcoin struggled to reclaim key resistance levels even as traders positioned for volatility amid thinning holiday liquidity.

Bitcoin slipped modestly during the latest session, with repeated rejections near $90,000 reinforcing near-term hesitation. Technical resistance from longer-term moving averages has capped upside attempts, while derivatives positioning remained active. 

A large whale opened substantial short positions across Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, signaling that downside risks remain in focus for some traders.

Gold pulls ahead as retail shifts away from crypto - Gold’s rally accelerated as prices approached the $4,500 level, supported by strong investment demand and renewed interest from younger buyers. 

Data from multiple regions showed first-time investors entering the gold market in growing numbers, favoring bars and coins over traditional jewelry. Search trends and import data reinforced the shift, pointing to stronger retail engagement in precious metals compared with cryptocurrencies.

Central banks have also contributed to the trend, with global gold reserves reaching multi-decade highs and monthly purchases accelerating. Analysts noted that gold’s strength reflects defensive positioning rather than speculative excess, driven by inflation concerns, geopolitical risk, and expectations of easier monetary policy.

Bitcoin divergences and institutional support - Despite price weakness, some traders highlighted bullish divergences forming on Bitcoin’s longer-term charts relative to both the US dollar and gold. These signals have previously preceded market bottoms, keeping dip-buying interest alive among technical analysts.

Institutional conviction has also remained firm. BlackRock continues to rank its spot Bitcoin ETF among its top investment themes for 2025, supported by strong cumulative inflows even as short-term ETF demand fluctuates. Futures markets reflected rising leverage and open interest, suggesting traders remain positioned for potential upside if sentiment improves.

A split market heading into 2026 - The contrast between gold’s surge and Bitcoin’s consolidation underscores a broader divide in capital flows. While retail investors have favored tangible safe havens, Bitcoin’s next leg appears increasingly tied to liquidity conditions and institutional participation rather than traditional inflation-hedging narratives.

Midnight’s NIGHT slides as whale accumulation clashes with rising sell pressure

Key points:

  • Cardano-based Midnight’s NIGHT token led losses among the top 100 cryptocurrencies after a sharp pullback, even as large holders continued to accumulate.

  • Heavy exchange inflows and long-skewed derivatives positioning suggest near-term risk remains elevated despite ongoing whale interest.

News - Risk-off sentiment returned across crypto markets as Midnight Network’s governance token, NIGHT, posted one of the steepest declines among the top 100 tokens by market capitalization. 

The token dropped more than 20% over the past 24 hours, underperforming peers as Bitcoin slipped back below $88,000 and broader volatility loomed ahead of key US macro data.

The sell-off came despite NIGHT’s strong launch performance. While the token remains significantly above its post-listing lows, momentum has cooled rapidly, reflecting growing tension between profit-taking activity and continued accumulation by large holders.

Volume surge meets distribution pressure - NIGHT attracted unusually high trading volumes throughout December, briefly exceeding the combined spot activity of several major altcoins. Much of this activity has been linked to its airdrop distribution, with exchange balances rising sharply as early recipients moved tokens to centralized venues.

On-chain data showed exchange-held NIGHT balances climbing nearly 18% in a single day, signaling increased sell-side pressure. This trend has weighed on price action even as overall interest in the token remained elevated.

Whales accumulate as retail takes profits - At the same time, large wallets moved in the opposite direction. The top holder cohort increased its NIGHT exposure on both daily and weekly timeframes, adding millions of tokens during periods of price weakness. 

Capital flow indicators remained positive, suggesting that larger participants were absorbing supply rather than exiting positions.

Analysts pointed to this divergence as a key signal heading into early 2026. While short-term momentum indicators weakened and price slipped below volume-weighted averages, sustained whale accumulation has remained a stabilizing factor so far.

January outlook hinges on capital support - Looking ahead, NIGHT’s trajectory appears increasingly dependent on whether large holders maintain support as derivatives exposure remains skewed toward long positions. 

A failure to reclaim near-term resistance levels could trigger liquidation-driven volatility, while renewed capital inflows could help stabilize price action.

For now, NIGHT reflects a familiar post-launch pattern marked by strong early interest and rising distribution pressure, with market participants closely watching whether accumulation persists as exchange supply remains elevated.

Bybit to exit Japan as regulatory pressure forces gradual withdrawal

Key points:

  • Bybit will halt services for Japanese residents, with account restrictions beginning in 2026 following sustained pressure from regulators.

  • Analysts suggest the move could be a strategic retreat that leaves room for a regulated re-entry through acquisition.

News - Bybit will discontinue services for users in Japan, marking a significant retreat from one of Asia’s most tightly regulated crypto markets. The exchange has begun restricting access for Japanese residents, with services set to end for Japan-based users on January 22, 2026, alongside gradual account limitations rolling out through 2026.

The decision follows years of scrutiny from Japan’s Financial Services Agency, which requires crypto exchanges serving domestic users to hold local registration. Bybit, which is not registered with the FSA, has faced repeated warnings since 2021, culminating in its latest move to wind down operations in the country.

A gradual exit takes shape - Bybit’s withdrawal has been unfolding in stages. Earlier steps included removing its app from Japanese app stores and suspending new account registrations. 

Under the latest plan, users identified as Japanese residents will face phased restrictions unless they complete additional identity and proof-of-address checks by the January 2026 deadline.

The FSA has intensified enforcement against offshore platforms offering Japanese language services without approval. In recent years, similar regulatory pressure has pushed other major exchanges to exit or restructure their presence in Japan.

Japan’s regulation vs adoption paradox - The exit comes despite Japan’s growing crypto adoption. On-chain activity in the country has expanded rapidly over the past year, outpacing other major Asia-Pacific markets. 

At the same time, regulatory oversight has tightened across trading platforms, lending services, and digital asset firms, creating a challenging environment for overseas exchanges.

Tax complexity has also weighed on participation, with surveys showing that compliance burdens have driven some investors away despite continued interest in digital assets.

Possible return through regulation - Some analysts believe Bybit’s move may not signal a permanent departure. Binance previously exited Japan under regulatory pressure before re-entering via the acquisition of a licensed local exchange. Similar speculation suggests Bybit could pursue a compliant path back into the market if regulatory conditions allow.

For now, the exchange’s Japan exit highlights the growing divide between crypto adoption and regulatory access, with compliance increasingly shaping where and how global platforms operate.

The Headlines Traders Need Before the Bell

Tired of missing the trades that actually move?

In under five minutes, Elite Trade Club delivers the top stories, market-moving headlines, and stocks to watch — before the open.

Join 200K+ traders who start with a plan, not a scroll.

Interesting facts

  • A Pacific nation is testing UBI via a crypto wallet: In December 2025, the Marshall Islands launched what it described as the world’s first nationwide universal basic income (UBI) program with an option to receive quarterly or annual payments through a government-backed digital wallet using a U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin.

  • Stablecoins are now settling payments at Visa scale: Visa disclosed that it has processed more than $3.5 billion in stablecoin settlement volume using USDC across public blockchains, underscoring how payment giants are quietly testing crypto rails for real transaction flows, not experiments.

  • Banks are being pushed deeper into crypto risk disclosure: In 2025, global regulators under the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision required banks to publicly disclose their crypto asset exposures, forcing traditional lenders to formally account for digital asset risk on balance sheets rather than treating it as off-book experimentation.

Fact-based news without bias awaits. Make 1440 your choice today.

Overwhelmed by biased news? Cut through the clutter and get straight facts with your daily 1440 digest. From politics to sports, join millions who start their day informed.

Top 3 coins of the day

Pippin (PIPPIN)

Key points:

  • PIPPIN climbed to $0.43, posting a near 20% daily gain, as aggressive buying followed a prolonged consolidation phase.

  • The rally was supported by strong DMI trend readings and a sharp volume expansion during the breakout.

What you should know:

PIPPIN staged a sharp upside move after spending weeks trading in a narrow range, with price accelerating once buyers regained control above the short-term structure. The token remained firmly above its 9-day SMA, which continued to slope upward, highlighting sustained short-term momentum. 

During the advance, volume surged noticeably, confirming that the move was driven by participation rather than thin liquidity alone.

The DMI reinforced this strength, with +DI staying well above –DI while ADX remained elevated, signaling that the trend carried conviction instead of erratic volatility. That said, volume eased slightly after the initial breakout, suggesting some cooling as price hovered near recent highs.

From a structure perspective, the $0.40–$0.41 zone now acts as immediate support to monitor, while the $0.48–$0.50 region stands as the next resistance area. Externally, concentrated buying activity, futures-led positioning, and improved retail access likely amplified the move, adding fuel to an already momentum-driven setup.

Humanity Protocol (H)

Key points:

  • H traded near $0.18 after a sharp pullback, posting a steep daily decline while broader participation stayed elevated.

  • Momentum indicators leaned constructive, with Parabolic SAR flipping below price and the MACD histogram expanding on the upside.

What you should know:

Humanity Protocol saw heightened volatility after its recent surge, with price retracing toward the $0.17–$0.18 zone following aggressive intraday selling. Despite the pullback, Parabolic SAR dots shifted below the candles, suggesting buyers had begun regaining short-term control.

The MACD histogram grew larger on the positive side, indicating strengthening bullish momentum rather than exhaustion. This shift came alongside sustained volume, reflecting continued trader engagement rather than a sharp drop in interest.

Derivatives activity previously accelerated, while fresh exchange listings expanded accessibility, both of which likely amplified recent price swings. However, upcoming token unlocks scheduled later this week remain an overhang, keeping volatility elevated.

Going forward, $0.16 acts as immediate support, while follow-through depends on whether SAR stays below price and the MACD histogram continues to build.

TRON (TRX)

Key points:

  • TRX was hovering around $0.28 and was almost flat on the day, after attempting to stabilize from its late-November dip.

  • Parabolic SAR flipped below the candles, while the Awesome Oscillator stayed green and the latest bars ticked just above zero.

What you should know:

TRX hovered near $0.28 and was almost unchanged over the last 24 hours, after trying to base following its late-November dip. 

The Parabolic SAR dots had flipped beneath recent candles, hinting that short-term control was shifting back toward buyers. Awesome Oscillator bars stayed green and the latest two prints pushed slightly above the zero line, showing that upside momentum was beginning to rebuild. Trading volume looked steady on the day.

Catalyst-wise, TRON-based USDT gaining regulatory recognition in Abu Dhabi likely helped sentiment, while headlines around Justin Sun-linked WLFI wallet freezes added a risk note. 

For key levels, $0.27 remains the area to defend, while $0.29 to $0.30 is the overhead zone to reclaim. Watch for SAR staying below price and AO holding above zero to keep the rebound case intact.

How was today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.