Altcoin surge hits selling wall

January 06, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

SUI and XRP ignite the rebound, but resistance and profit pressure loom

Key points:

  • SUI and XRP led the latest altcoin push as Bitcoin held above $93,000 and total crypto market cap rose to about $3.297 trillion.

  • SUI’s breakout and XRP’s ETF-driven bid look strong, but both tokens are pressing into zones where profit-taking has historically intensified.

News - Crypto markets kicked off 2026 with renewed momentum, adding about $250 billion in market value in under a week. As Bitcoin stayed above $93,000, SUI and XRP posted double-digit daily gains and stood out among the session’s top performers.

SUI: Breakout fuel meets a $2 stress test - SUI climbed roughly 37% over seven days, supported by a triple bottom near $1.30 and a reclaim of key EMAs on the 12-hour chart. 

Traders also latched onto research from Mysten Labs outlining how account-based chains could support privacy features using tools like zero-knowledge proofs, even though no product launch or timeline was announced. 

Still, warning signs followed the surge. Momentum cooled near $2, and spot exchange flows swung from net outflows to net inflows, suggesting profit-taking risk is rising as price pushes into resistance.

XRP: Institutional flows, mixed signals - XRP rallied to around $2.38 and has risen sharply since late December. U.S. spot XRP ETFs logged $48 million in daily inflows, taking cumulative inflows beyond $1 billion since their November 13 launch, while exchange balances fell to multi-year lows. 

Market views remain split: Bollinger Bands’ creator John Bollinger described XRP as more reactive than market leaders, while crypto analyst Peter Brandt has been watching a broad $1.5 to $3.5 range. 

Technically, attention is clustered near $2.40 to $2.41, a resistance zone tied to heavy prior positioning. A firm daily close above it would strengthen the bullish case, while rejection could trigger a controlled pullback.

US markets diverge as IPOs lag, debt swells, and crypto rebounds

Key points:

  • US IPOs underperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, weighed down by uneven crypto and AI debuts despite a broader market recovery.

  • Rising US debt and renewed crypto market momentum are reshaping risk appetite, with gains driven selectively rather than indiscriminately.

News - US financial markets opened 2026 with mixed signals. While crypto prices and related stocks rebounded sharply, data from last year showed that companies going public in 2025 lagged established benchmarks. US IPOs delivered a weighted average gain of 13.9%, trailing the S&P 500’s 16% rise, according to Bloomberg.

Crypto-linked listings played a notable role in that underperformance, with results varying widely after initial trading enthusiasm faded.

IPO enthusiasm cools as fundamentals take center stage - Circle’s $1.05 billion IPO stood out as one of the year’s strongest debuts, surging on its first day before retreating as Bitcoin fell from its October peak. 

Other crypto listings struggled more persistently. Gemini’s shares dropped more than 60% from their IPO price by year-end, while Bullish slid back toward its debut levels after an early spike.

Market participants described 2025 as a selective reopening rather than a full IPO revival. PwC’s US IPO lead noted that investors became more discerning, with mid-sized offerings lagging larger deals as fundamentals outweighed narrative-driven demand.

Debt pressures and crypto’s selective rebound - Macro pressures also intensified. US national debt climbed to $38.5 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio above 120% and driving annual interest costs beyond $1 trillion. 

Analysts warned such conditions can pressure policymakers to keep rates lower, a backdrop often viewed as supportive for assets like Bitcoin and gold.

That environment coincided with a crypto rebound. Major tokens hit multi-week highs, US-listed crypto stocks posted double-digit gains, and Glassnode observed reduced sell-side aggression alongside modestly improving liquidity.

Energy, mining, and longer-term shifts - Bitfinex analysts said US access to Venezuelan oil could eventually lower electricity costs for Bitcoin miners, though any meaningful impact would likely take years. For now, they cautioned that crypto prices remain driven more by macro risk appetite and positioning than energy fundamentals.

Looking ahead, analysts expect 2026 to test whether crypto infrastructure can support institutional-grade execution, as new regulatory frameworks across the US, Europe, and Asia concentrate liquidity into fewer venues and raise the bar on market structure resilience.

Morgan Stanley pushes deeper into crypto with Bitcoin and Solana ETF filings

Key points:

  • Morgan Stanley has filed S-1 registration statements for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, marking a major step toward issuing its own crypto exchange-traded products.

  • The filings reflect rising institutional demand for regulated crypto exposure amid strong ETF inflows and a more supportive US regulatory backdrop.

News - Morgan Stanley has filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Bitcoin and Solana. 

The proposed products, named the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust and the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust, are structured as passive vehicles designed to closely track the price performance of their underlying assets.

The filings arrive as demand for regulated crypto exposure picked up at the start of 2026. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1.1 billion in inflows during the first two trading days of the year, while cumulative trading volume across US spot crypto ETFs has surpassed $2 trillion.

How the proposed ETFs are structured - According to the filings, the trusts will hold Bitcoin and Solana directly and calculate net asset value using pricing benchmarks derived from trading activity across major spot exchanges. 

Shares are expected to list on US securities exchanges, with creation and redemption handled by authorized participants in large blocks, either in cash or in kind.

Morgan Stanley Investment Management is listed as the sponsor. Custody details remain partial, though the bank said most private keys would be stored in cold wallets, with a smaller portion held in hot wallets. The trusts are not registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940, meaning traditional mutual fund protections do not apply.

Regulation and institutional momentum - Morgan Stanley’s move comes amid a shift in the US regulatory environment that has encouraged traditional finance firms to expand into digital assets. Recent changes to ETF listing standards and broader permissions for banks to engage with crypto products have lowered barriers to entry.

The filings also build on Morgan Stanley’s earlier decision to expand crypto access across client accounts, including retirement plans. 

The Solana trust includes a staking component, and issuing in-house ETFs allows the bank to integrate crypto products directly into its wealth platform while retaining fee revenue, signaling a higher-conviction commitment to digital assets.

Polymarket adds taker fees as bots, fast trades, and scrutiny collide

Key points:

  • Polymarket quietly introduced taker fees on its 15-minute crypto markets, redirecting all proceeds to liquidity providers rather than the platform.

  • The change comes as bots dominate short-term markets and recent high-profile bets sparked debate around fairness and market integrity.

News - Polymarket has updated its documentation to introduce taker-only fees on 15-minute crypto up or down markets, marking a targeted departure from its long-standing zero-fee model. The platform did not issue a formal announcement, and all other markets remain fee-free.

Under the new structure, only takers pay fees, with all collections redistributed daily in USDC to liquidity providers. The fee curve peaks when market odds sit near 50% and drops sharply as probabilities move toward 0% or 100%. 

Documentation examples show a 100-share taker trade at $0.50 incurring a fee of about $1.56, or just over 3% at the highest point of the curve.

Why Polymarket targeted fast crypto markets - Short duration crypto markets attract frequent taker orders, automated strategies, and high turnover. 

Community commentary framed the update as a market structure adjustment rather than a revenue move, aimed at supporting depth and discouraging exploitative activity. Small or directional trades near probability extremes face minimal friction, while high-frequency taker activity now faces higher costs.

Bots, arbitrage, and growing pressure on liquidity - Recent analysis has shown bots dominating Polymarket’s 15-minute crypto markets, exploiting latency and mispriced probabilities to generate outsized returns. 

Some automated strategies reportedly turned small starting capital into hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars through repeated arbitrage and high-frequency execution. These dynamics have strained passive liquidity and widened the gap between human traders and automated participants.

Scrutiny rises alongside structural changes - Polymarket has also faced scrutiny after profitable bets tied to the Nicolás Maduro market sparked insider trading speculation. 

Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps rejected claims linking the activity to a World Liberty Financial co-founder, calling the logic weak, while analysts involved emphasized that their findings were speculative rather than accusatory.

Taken together, the new fee model suggests Polymarket is testing whether targeted friction can improve liquidity depth and market quality in fast markets while preserving its broader zero-fee identity.

Interesting facts

  • Hedge funds are no longer just watching crypto, they’re invested: A 2025 industry survey found that 55% of global hedge funds now hold crypto-related assets, with the average allocation around 7% of their portfolio, signaling growing integration of digital assets into mainstream institutional strategies.

  • Gen Z just overtook millennials as India’s top crypto investor group: As per CoinSwitch’s Q3 2025 report, Gen Z (ages 18–25) edged past millennials (26–35) for the first time in India’s crypto market share, now making up roughly 37.6% of crypto investors, highlighting a distinct generational shift in digital asset participation.

  • Crypto ownership hit a new global milestone: By the end of 2024, the number of global cryptocurrency owners grew to about 659 million people, a 13% increase from the previous year, showing that retail participation continues rising even outside price rallies.

Top 3 coins of the day

Bittensor (TAO)

Key points:

  • TAO climbed to $286, extending its recent recovery as buyers reclaimed control above the Supertrend.

  • Directional strength improved as DMI flipped bullish, supported by a noticeable pickup in trading volume.

What you should know:

Bittensor’s price advanced after rebounding from its late-December base near the $220 zone, with recent candles forming a sequence of higher lows. The move reflected a shift in short-term structure following weeks of downside pressure, as TAO reclaimed the $260–$270 region that had previously capped upside attempts.

Trend conditions improved as price moved back above the Supertrend, signaling that bearish control had weakened. At the same time, the DMI showed strengthening directional bias, with the +DI crossing above the -DI and ADX rising, pointing to improving trend strength rather than a brief relief bounce.

Volume expanded alongside the advance, reinforcing the recovery and highlighting stronger participation compared to the low-activity consolidation seen through mid-December. Anticipation around Binance’s upcoming TAO/JPY spot listings appeared to support demand, alongside renewed interest across AI-focused tokens. 

Going forward, the $260–$270 zone remains immediate support, while the $300–$320 region stands as the next area to monitor.

Sui (SUI)

Key points:

  • SUI climbed sharply over the last session, breaking out of a multi-week consolidation with strong volume support.

  • Capital inflows turned positive as price pushed toward the upper Bollinger Band, signaling renewed bullish participation.

What you should know:

SUI staged a decisive move higher after spending much of late December trading sideways below the Bollinger mid-band. 

The latest daily candle closed near $1.97, marking a clean breakout from the $1.45–$1.55 consolidation zone. Price moved above the 20-day Bollinger basis and expanded toward the upper band, reflecting a volatility expansion phase rather than a slow grind.

Volume picked up notably during the breakout, confirming that the move was backed by participation rather than thin liquidity. At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow flipped back into positive territory, indicating fresh capital inflows following weeks of distribution pressure.

From a structural perspective, the $1.55–$1.60 region now acts as the key support zone to monitor, aligning with the Bollinger mid-band. 

On the upside, the $2.00–$2.05 region remains the immediate resistance area. Sustained closes above this zone would keep bullish momentum intact, while a slip back below the mid-band would weaken the breakout narrative.

XRP (XRP)

Key points:

  • XRP posted a strong daily recovery, reclaiming ground after weeks of downside pressure as buyers stepped back in with conviction.

  • Momentum flipped constructive, with the Supertrend turning bullish and the Awesome Oscillator shifting decisively into positive territory.

What you should know:

XRP closed the latest session near $2.39, extending its rebound from the late-December lows after a prolonged corrective phase. The move marked a clear shift in short-term structure, as price pushed above the Supertrend level, confirming a fresh bullish signal following weeks of sell-side control.

Momentum indicators supported the reversal. The Awesome Oscillator flipped green and moved above the zero line, reflecting strengthening upside momentum rather than a short-lived relief bounce. This change came after an extended stretch of negative readings, highlighting a broader momentum reset.

Volume expanded notably on the breakout candle, reinforcing the move with higher participation and suggesting renewed trader interest. This uptick aligned with improving sentiment across large-cap altcoins.

Beyond technicals, ETF-related demand narratives around XRP continued to underpin confidence, adding a longer-term accumulation angle to the recent price recovery.

Going forward, the Supertrend now acts as support, while sustained volume remains key to maintaining bullish traction.

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