Big money backs Bitcoin & XRP ETF in focus

February 18, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

XRP’s big moment? ETF buzz and Musk’s D.O.G.E. spark speculation

Key points:

  • XRP’s open interest has rebounded to $4.3 billion, signaling renewed bullish momentum.

  • Elon Musk’s D.O.G.E. initiative sparks speculation of increased SEC scrutiny, potentially impacting XRP’s regulatory outlook.

News - XRP has regained strong market interest, with its open interest climbing back to $4.3 billion after dropping nearly 50% to $3.4 billion earlier this month. The rebound follows XRP’s price surge to a one-week high of $2.50, fueling optimism among traders.

Crypto analyst Chad Steingraber noted on X that "XRP open interest is pumping up again", hinting at a possible bullish continuation. The increase in open interest suggests more traders are positioning for future gains, though regulatory uncertainty remains a key factor in determining XRP’s next move.

SEC scrutiny and the Musk factor - A new development stirring the XRP community is Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), which has reportedly turned its focus to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On February 17, a post from D.O.G.E.’s official X account called for users to report waste, fraud, and abuse related to the SEC. This has led to speculation that increased public scrutiny could expose potential regulatory misconduct, potentially influencing the SEC’s approach to its ongoing case against Ripple.

Can XRP reach $10? - With speculation around an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) gaining traction, analysts are debating its potential impact on the token’s price. Bloomberg ETF analysts have assigned a 65% chance of approval to an XRP ETF, citing Ripple’s ongoing legal battle as a major hurdle.

If approved, analysts at Foresight Ventures predict XRP could surge to $3–$10, fueled by institutional investment. However, some experts believe this estimate may be overly optimistic, given the SEC’s historical reluctance to approve altcoin-based ETFs.

At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.59, down 2.76% in the last 24 hours, as traders await further regulatory and market developments.

Ethereum bulls take charge: Is a major rebound on the horizon?

Key points:

  • Ethereum’s price surged past $2,700, outpacing most altcoins, with signs pointing to further gains.

  • ETH exchange balances hit an all-time low, signaling strong investor confidence and reduced selling pressure.

News - Ethereum (ETH) is showing strong signs of a potential rally as its price climbed above $2,700, outperforming Solana (SOL), XRP, and Binance Coin (BNB). Market analysts believe ETH’s recent bullish momentum could be just the beginning of a major rebound.

Santiment data highlights that 0.83% of Ethereum’s total supply moved off exchanges in the past two weeks, leaving only 6.38% of ETH supply on exchanges—the lowest since its genesis. This suggests investors are accumulating ETH for the long term, reducing the likelihood of a major sell-off.

Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs have recorded $393 million in inflows this month, sharply contrasting Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen $376 million in net outflows. The shift signals a growing preference for Ethereum among institutional investors.

What’s driving Ethereum’s potential rally? - Several factors are contributing to Ethereum’s renewed optimism:

Social dominance & rising interest:

  • Ethereum has become the most-discussed asset on Coinbase, surpassing Bitcoin for the first time since 2022.

  • 9.2% of all crypto discussions in February have been focused on ETH, suggesting growing market interest.

Ethereum’s gas fees & DeFi dominance:

  • Despite on-chain activity slowing down, Ethereum still leads in DeFi gas fees, generating over $1.68 billion in fees across all timeframes.

  • Ethereum transaction fees are at a four-year low, making it cheaper to use the network.

The Upcoming Pectra upgrade:

  • Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade is set to launch on Holesky testnet on February 24 and on Sepolia in early March.

  • Expected improvements include faster transactions and enhanced staking mechanics, helping Ethereum compete with Solana and other Layer-1s.

What’s next for Ethereum? - While Ethereum’s price has traded between $2,600 and $2,800 since early February, analysts expect a breakout soon.

Nick Forster of Derive.xyz believes Ethereum has a 30% chance of hitting $3,000 by the end of Q1 2024, up from 28% last week. He attributes this to network improvements and renewed institutional interest from Ethereum’s $120 million DeFi fund allocation.

If ETH maintains its bullish momentum and ETF inflows continue, it could be positioned for a major price surge in the coming months.

Bitcoin’s bull run isn’t over: Institutions are still buying

Key points:

  • Bernstein analysts predict Bitcoin's bull run will continue as institutional demand surges.

  • Market volatility is at multi-year lows, signaling an impending breakout, with price targets ranging from $85,000 to $200,000.

News - Bitcoin's bull run may just be getting started as institutional investors continue pouring money into the market, according to a report from global investment firm Bernstein. Despite recent price stagnation, analysts believe Bitcoin (BTC) is positioning itself as a challenger to gold, with banks, corporations, and sovereign wealth funds ramping up adoption.

Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra, and Sanskar Chindalia pointed to Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth fund, which recently invested $436 million into BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF, as a sign that institutional interest remains strong. They also highlighted the participation of major players like Citadel Advisors, Jane Street Group, and Morgan Stanley, which have collectively poured hundreds of millions into BTC-backed investment vehicles.

The firm maintains its bullish price prediction of $200,000 per BTC by the end of 2025, fueled by continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and a shift in U.S. crypto regulations under the Trump administration.

Bitcoin’s volatility nears breaking point - While institutional demand is driving long-term optimism, market data suggests a major price move is imminent.

Research from CryptoQuant shows Bitcoin’s Choppiness Index—a measure of how stagnant an asset’s price has been—is at extreme levels, similar to August 2023, right before BTC surged in a multi-month uptrend. Analysts warn that BTC could see a liquidity grab, potentially dipping to $85,000 before resuming its rally.

Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s volatility is at its lowest in years, suggesting that the longer BTC trades within its tight range of $91,000 to $109,000, the bigger the eventual breakout will be. Historical patterns indicate the longer the compression, the more explosive the move—whether up or down.

What’s next? - Bitcoin’s price direction will likely depend on how the market reacts to its upcoming breakout.

  • If BTC holds key support levels, Bernstein’s prediction of $200,000 by 2025 could remain valid.

  • However, if selling pressure increases, a drop to $85,000 is possible before the next leg up.

With Bitcoin's volatility at historic lows and institutions continuing to accumulate, the crypto market may be on the verge of its next big move.

Milei distances himself from LIBRA, points finger at U.S. and China investors

Key points:

  • Argentine President Javier Milei denied promoting the LIBRA memecoin, claiming he only shared it in good faith and has since reassessed his accessibility.

  • Over 100 criminal complaints and multiple investigations—including from Argentina’s Anti-Corruption Office and U.S. prosecutors—are now targeting LIBRA's rapid collapse.

News - The controversy surrounding the LIBRA memecoin has taken another twist, with Argentine President Javier Milei breaking his silence to address allegations of his involvement. In a recent interview, Milei denied actively promoting LIBRA, stating that he only disseminated information about the project, believing it could benefit Argentine entrepreneurs. However, his post on X (formerly Twitter) contributed to LIBRA’s market cap skyrocketing to $4 billion before insider wallets liquidated over $100 million, triggering a massive crash.

Milei admitted that the event was a "slap in the face," leading him to reassess his accessibility as president. He insisted that only a handful of Argentinians lost money, claiming that most victims were American and Chinese investors familiar with volatility trading. Despite his defense, mounting legal challenges could test the president’s credibility.

Investigations and legal fallout - Argentina’s Anti-Corruption Office (OA) and U.S. prosecutors are actively investigating the LIBRA incident. Over 100 criminal complaints have been filed, with opposition lawmakers pushing for impeachment proceedings against Milei and his associates. The involvement of Hayden Davis, CEO of Kelsier Ventures and a key figure behind LIBRA, is also under scrutiny. Davis, an American citizen, has admitted to mismanagement but denied it was a rug pull.

Meanwhile, new accusations of price manipulation emerged after Milei reposted a tutorial on how to buy LIBRA, leading to a 60% price surge. Data from Lookonchain revealed that a trader exploited the surge, making nearly $500,000 in minutes—raising further concerns about potential insider trading.

Industry reactions and ethical concerns - The LIBRA debacle has reignited discussions about ethical standards in the crypto space. Following the scandal, Ben Chow, co-founder of Solana-based DeFi platform Meteora, stepped down amid allegations that his team engaged in insider trading. Crypto leaders have since called for more transparency in token launches, with some warning that the industry is at a crossroads between speculative schemes and meaningful innovation.

“The people behind this project made substantial personal gains at the expense of many users, the ecosystem, and even an entire country. I hope the people responsible get what they deserve,” said Alon, founder of Pump.fun, a Solana meme coin launchpad.

As the LIBRA scandal continues unfolding, it remains to be seen whether the legal scrutiny and industry backlash will lead to meaningful changes or simply fade into yet another cautionary tale in the world of crypto.

Interesting facts

  • In 2023, Listen-to-Earn platforms like Fountain began rewarding users with Bitcoin for listening to podcasts, integrating cryptocurrency earnings with content consumption. This development highlights the innovative fusion of digital content engagement and cryptocurrency incentives.

  • North Korean hackers stole $1.34 billion through cryptocurrency hacks in 2024, accounting for two-thirds of global crypto thefts that year. This marked a significant escalation in state-sponsored cybercrime, with the stolen funds reportedly used to circumvent international sanctions and fund governmental activities.

  • In the fourth quarter of 2024, asset managers, including hedge funds and pension funds, significantly increased their investments in Bitcoin ETFs. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board more than doubled its holdings to 6 million shares, while Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Investment Co entered the market with an 8.2 million share stake.

Top 3 coins of the day

Maker (MKR)

Key points:

  • At press time, MKR was trading at $1,109, reflecting a 5.92% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The RSI climbed above 50, indicating growing bullish momentum, while the price moved closer to the midline of the Bollinger Bands.

What you should know:

MKR witnessed a notable recovery as it climbed above the $1,100 mark, posting nearly a 6% gain in the past 24 hours. The price bounced from the lower Bollinger Band and edged closer to the midline, signaling reduced selling pressure. The volume increase supported this rebound, indicating renewed buying interest. Moreover, the RSI hovered around 53, suggesting the asset was neither overbought nor oversold, but with room for further upside. If the bullish momentum continues, MKR could face resistance near $1,200, while support remains at the psychological $1,000 level. Traders should watch for increased volatility near the upper Bollinger Band, which may dictate the next directional move.

Mantle (MNT)

Key points:

  • At press time, MNT was trading at $1.09, reflecting a 2.57% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The price maintained support around $1.00, while the DMI suggested weak bullish momentum.

What you should know:

MNT has seen a modest price uptick, rising by 2.57% to trade at $1.09. The 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) trended close to the current price, indicating a consolidation phase after previous volatility. The price found support near the $1.00 mark, preventing further downside movement. Moreover, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) reflected a mixed trend, with the ADX line suggesting weak momentum. A potential price recovery could be in sight if the bulls manage to sustain volume inflows and push beyond the recent resistance levels near $1.15. Traders should monitor these levels to gauge whether MNT can establish a stronger bullish breakout.

Injective (INJ)

Key points:

  • At press time, INJ was trading at $14.01, reflecting a 6.35% decline over the last 24 hours.

  • The price movement showed bearish pressure as INJ faced resistance at the mid-Bollinger Band level, while the MACD remained in negative territory.

What you should know:

INJ experienced a notable decline in the past day, falling by 6.35% to $14.01. The Bollinger Bands indicated high volatility, with the price attempting to recover but still struggling below the midline resistance of the bands. A rejection at this level previously led to further declines, suggesting that INJ would need a stronger push to regain bullish momentum. The MACD signaled a bearish crossover, with the histogram in the negative zone and the signal line hovering below zero, reflecting continued selling pressure. Meanwhile, trading volume saw fluctuations, indicating that market participants remain active but uncertain. If buying momentum increases, INJ could attempt to test the $16 resistance level; otherwise, a downside move toward $12 support remains likely.

How was today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.