Binance flags Bitcoin’s next big turning point

March 12, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

US midterms could reset Bitcoin cycle says Binance as BTC holds $70K

Key points:

  • Binance Research highlighted the 2026 US midterm elections as a potential turning point for Bitcoin, citing historical rebounds once political uncertainty fades.

  • Near-term risks from oil shocks, rising derivatives leverage, and geopolitical tensions kept Bitcoin consolidating around the $70,000 zone.

News - Bitcoin remained pinned near $70,000 as traders navigated a mix of macro pressure and structural market shifts. A recent report from Binance Research pointed to the US midterm election cycle as a possible catalyst for the next major recovery phase, noting that risk assets have historically rallied after election outcomes reduce uncertainty.

In previous cycles, Bitcoin experienced steep declines during midterm years before rebounding strongly in the following period. Analysts said the same pattern could unfold again, although markets currently remain sensitive to global developments.

Fresh attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf briefly pushed Brent crude above $100, reinforcing inflation concerns and dampening expectations of near-term interest rate cuts. The escalation contributed to a broader wait-and-see mood across financial markets, leaving Bitcoin confined within a wide consolidation range.

Leverage surge adds volatility risk - Market structure signals also pointed to fragile conditions beneath the surface. On Binance, futures trading volume expanded to more than five times spot activity, suggesting leveraged positioning is increasingly driving short-term price action. Such dynamics can trigger sharp swings without establishing sustained trends.

On-chain indicators reflected mixed momentum. Derivatives data showed buyers gradually returning, while apparent demand remained negative and large holders trimmed positions into recent rallies. Retail traders also stepped in during dips below $70,000.

Resilience persists but breakout not confirmed - Despite weak sentiment, Bitcoin has outperformed several traditional assets since tensions in the Middle East intensified in late February. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded multiple consecutive inflow sessions, signaling continued institutional participation.

Several analysts noted that reclaiming the $78,000 level as support would be key to confirming a broader trend shift. Until clearer macro signals emerge, Bitcoin’s direction is likely to remain closely tied to geopolitical risks and election cycle expectations.

BlackRock bets on Ethereum yield with new staking ETF launch

Key points:

  • BlackRock launched the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF on Nasdaq, allowing investors to earn staking rewards alongside spot ETH exposure.

  • The product enters a growing race among asset managers to attract yield-seeking crypto investors as institutional allocations to digital assets remain relatively low.

News - BlackRock expanded its crypto investment lineup with the debut of the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF, trading under the ticker ETHB. The fund combines direct exposure to Ether’s price with staking rewards, reflecting rising demand for income-generating digital asset products within regulated structures.

The ETF carries a 0.25% sponsor fee, temporarily reduced to 0.12% on the first $2.5 billion in assets during its first year. BlackRock said the product aims to appeal to a broad investor base, including financial advisors, hedge funds, and family offices seeking diversified portfolio exposure to digital assets.

ETHB marks the firm’s first crypto fund to integrate staking and its third digital asset ETF overall, following the launches of its Bitcoin and spot Ethereum trusts. The vehicle will stake a portion of its Ether holdings on the network, enabling investors to participate in validation rewards while maintaining the operational simplicity of an exchange-traded product.

Yield competition intensifies across Ethereum funds - The launch adds competitive pressure in the expanding Ethereum ETF market. Other asset managers have already introduced staking-enabled funds, highlighting growing interest in combining price exposure with yield opportunities. BlackRock expects the feature could encourage some investors to shift from holding Ether directly or from existing non-staking funds into the new vehicle.

Staking rewards, often viewed as a yield-like return, may also help institutional investors evaluate Ethereum within traditional portfolio frameworks that prioritize cash-flow generation. Until recently, most spot Ether ETFs excluded staking functionality, which some market participants saw as limiting their appeal.

Institutional adoption still in early stages - Despite rapid growth in crypto investment products, digital assets continue to represent a small share of typical institutional portfolios. Allocations generally remain in the low single-digit range, underscoring the industry’s focus on product innovation to attract broader participation.

BlackRock’s latest offering shows that staking-enabled ETFs are becoming a more prominent part of efforts to broaden access to crypto investment products.

JPMorgan faces lawsuit over alleged $328M crypto ponzi links

Key points:

  • Investors filed a federal class action accusing JPMorgan of enabling fund flows tied to the alleged $328 million Goliath Ventures crypto Ponzi scheme.

  • The case could test how far banks may be held liable for anti-money laundering and oversight failures linked to crypto fraud operations.

News - JPMorgan is under fresh legal scrutiny after investors accused the bank of facilitating transactions connected to the collapse of Goliath Ventures, an alleged cryptocurrency Ponzi scheme that prosecutors say defrauded more than 2,000 participants nationwide.

The proposed class action, filed on March 10 in the US District Court for the Northern District of California, claims the bank processed large volumes of suspicious transfers that allowed the scheme to operate for years. Authorities allege the operation raised about $328 million between 2023 and early 2026.

Investigators said roughly $253 million flowed through JPMorgan accounts during that period, with around $123 million later transferred to digital wallets on Coinbase that were allegedly controlled by the scheme’s founder, Christopher Alexander Delgado. He was arrested in February on wire fraud and money laundering charges and faces a potential sentence of up to 30 years if convicted.

Banking oversight under the spotlight - Plaintiffs argue the bank ignored warning signs such as circular fund movements and unusually high transaction volumes, allowing Goliath Ventures to scale rapidly. The lawsuit also points to the firm’s public criticism of cryptocurrencies while continuing to process transfers linked to crypto investments.

Prosecutors described JPMorgan’s accounts as core infrastructure supporting the scheme’s financial flows. Legal filings also reference additional banking relationships, including a business account linked to Bank of America.

Broader push for accountability - The litigation forms part of a wider effort by investors to recover losses by targeting financial institutions and professional service providers connected to the alleged fraud. Parallel legal action has also expanded beyond JPMorgan, with other alleged enablers coming under scrutiny.

The case adds to growing scrutiny around how banks handle transactions tied to alleged crypto investment fraud.

Metaplanet expands Bitcoin strategy with new venture push

Key points:

  • Tokyo-listed Metaplanet is launching new subsidiaries and committing about $25 million to support Bitcoin infrastructure and digital asset startups.

  • The move signals an expansion of Metaplanet’s Bitcoin strategy beyond treasury accumulation, even as long-term holdings remain central to its approach.

News - Metaplanet is broadening its Bitcoin playbook with the creation of two wholly owned subsidiaries, Metaplanet Ventures and Metaplanet Asset Management, as the company seeks to accelerate development of regulated crypto financial infrastructure.

The firm plans to deploy roughly ¥4 billion, or about $25 million, over the next two to three years into projects spanning lending, payments, custody, derivatives, and compliance solutions. The initiative marks a strategic step beyond simply holding Bitcoin, even as the company maintains long-term accumulation as its core focus.

Metaplanet currently holds 35,102 BTC, positioning it among the largest corporate holders globally. Its new venture arm will support seed-stage through growth-stage startups, run an incubator for early-stage founders, and offer grants to open-source developers and educators building within the digital asset ecosystem.

First deal targets Japan’s stablecoin market - The subsidiary’s initial investment is expected to include up to ¥400 million, or about $2.6 million, in JPYC, a licensed yen-denominated stablecoin issuer. The company said the funding aligns with expectations that Japan may formally recognize Bitcoin as a regulated financial asset by 2028, a shift likely to require expanded domestic infrastructure.

Alongside its Japan-focused venture strategy, Metaplanet Asset Management will operate from Miami as a platform connecting Asian and Western investors across digital asset credit and capital markets opportunities.

Strategy shift amid financial pressure - The expansion comes during a period of financial strain linked to Bitcoin’s price swings. The firm disclosed significant losses in its latest fiscal year, while its stock has also declined in recent months.

Despite these challenges, the company said the new initiatives aim to broaden its role in developing Bitcoin-related financial infrastructure.

Interesting facts

  • A stablecoin issuer became one of the world’s biggest buyers of U.S. government debt: Tether was the seventh-largest net purchaser of U.S. Treasury bills in 2024, acquiring over $33B in new debt and bringing its total holdings to more than $94B by year-end. This shows how deeply crypto’s biggest dollar token is now tied to traditional finance.

  • One of the most famous NFT sales in history lost nearly all of its resale heat: Jack Dorsey’s first tweet sold as an NFT for just over $2.9M in March 2021, but when the buyer tried to resell it in 2022, the highest bid was only about $6,800.

  • The internet once tried to buy the U.S. Constitution with crypto: In 2021, ConstitutionDAO raised $47M worth of ETH from 17,437 contributors in under a week to bid on a rare copy of the U.S. Constitution, turning one auction into one of crypto’s most memorable experiments in collective fundraising.

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Top 3 coins of the day

River (RIVER)

Key points:

  • RIVER advanced toward $17.84 after maintaining a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.

  • The EWO remained in positive territory, indicating sustained bullish momentum.

What you should know:

RIVER traded around $17.84 after breaking above the earlier $15–16 range, extending its recovery from the sharp February decline toward the $7–8 area. Price action gradually shifted into a constructive structure, with the Higher High Lower Low pattern confirming improving trend strength over recent sessions. Momentum stayed supportive as the EWO histogram held green readings, even though the pace of gains moderated slightly following the initial surge.

Activity increased during the breakout phase, with stronger turnover compared to the preceding consolidation period. Market sentiment also appeared to benefit from ecosystem-focused developments such as a $1 million staking milestone and a 250,000 RIVER user airdrop. The key level to monitor now is the $16 support zone, while a continuation higher could bring the $20 region back into focus.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

Key points:

  • HYPE climbed toward the $37 region after a strong bullish push that carried price above the upper Bollinger Band, signaling expanding upside momentum.

  • The Squeeze Momentum Indicator flipped decisively positive while volume improved during the breakout phase, reflecting strengthening buyer conviction.

What you should know:

Hyperliquid built higher from late-February lows and accelerated this week as bullish momentum intensified. The latest candles stretched beyond the upper Bollinger Band, highlighting a volatility expansion phase rather than range-bound trading. Participation increased during the advance, with stronger turnover compared to the prior consolidation structure.

Market sentiment also appeared to benefit from a surge in activity on Hyperliquid’s oil-linked perpetual markets amid geopolitical uncertainty, alongside anticipation around upcoming platform upgrades.

For now, the $34–35 zone acts as the immediate support cluster, while sustained strength could bring the $40 psychological region back into focus. Traders should watch whether volatility bands continue widening and if momentum readings remain positive to confirm trend continuation.

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

Key points:

  • SHIB traded near $0.00000585 at press time after posting a modest daily gain, reflecting a mild recovery from its recent downtrend.

  • The DMI structure showed weakening bearish dominance, while price action began forming a higher low on rising turnover.

What you should know:

SHIB edged higher after stabilizing near its early-March base, with price gradually reclaiming ground following a sequence of lower highs. 

The latest move came alongside improving activity levels, suggesting renewed participation after a prolonged period of consolidation. Market sentiment also appeared to draw support from ecosystem developments, including a reported surge in Shibarium network transactions that signaled fresh engagement across the layer-2 environment. 

Structurally, the formation of a higher low hinted at short-term resilience, although the broader trend remained cautious as the token continued to trade below earlier swing highs.

From a technical perspective, the $0.00000507 zone now acts as a key support to monitor, while a sustained push higher could bring $0.00000670–$0.00000680 back into view as the next area of interest.

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