Bitcoin's 25% odds

July 09, 2024

Reading time: 5 minutes

‘25%’ - Odds of Bitcoin hitting new ATH in Q3 of 2024

Key points:

  • BTC recovered after hitting $53,000 for the first time since February.

  • Analyst claimed odds depend on Bitcoin finishing July higher than $50,000.

News - Following a disappointing week that saw the world’s largest cryptocurrency drop to $53,000, BTC recovered a little to trade at around $57,000 on the charts.

This recovery coincided with some whale action, with many of them accumulating at this price level in expectation of a price hike in the future. This was highlighted by the crypto’s long/short ratio too.

There are still questions about the scale of this recovery though, with many unsure about BTC hitting its old highs anytime soon. Popular author and crypto analyst Timothy Peterson discussed these odds recently.

Percentages and more percentages - According to Peterson, Bitcoin’s performance over the next three months depends on it finishing July with a value higher than $50,000. In fact, his statistical model suggested that since the crypto is now down over 25% from its ATH, there’s a 60% chance that it will climb higher in the next three months.

He went on to say that as far as a new ATH is concerned, there’s only a 25% chance of that happening.

That’s not all either, with Peterson concluding that Bitcoin to $100,000 only has a 10% chance.

More recovery odds - Outside of these projections, there are other factors in favour of BTC too. For example, at the time of writing, the crypto was testing its Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) on the charts.

In 2023, 2016, and 2013, Bitcoin rallied significantly on the charts after it tested this long-term indicator.

Here, it’s worth noting that on the contrary, this wasn’t the case back in 2019.

Ethereum announces ‘attackathon’ to ‘enhance security’ before Pectra

Key points:

  • “Attackathon” will be the first-of-its-kind launched by Ethereum.

  • It will have a slated reward pool of over $2 million.

News - With the much-anticipated Pectra upgrade (A combination of the Prague and Electra upgrades) expected sometime in late 2024, the need for security is paramount. In light of this pressing need, Ethereum protocol will host the “largest crowdsourced security audit” of the blockchain’s codebase.

More details - Advertised as an “attackathon” and in collaboration with Immunefi, the event will have a slated reward pool of +$2 million. According to a statement released by the EPS Research Team,

“We plan to host similar Ethereum protocol security challenges at every hard fork covering changes to the codebase.”

The timing of this announcement is particularly interesting, especially in light of the fact that the crypto-space hasn’t been immune to hacks and exploits this year. Hackathons and audits such as these allow any such security loopholes to be patched up, before they are exploited.

Pectra is coming - The upgrade will be one of Ethereum’s most-awaited in a long time, with the same expected to add a few new and unique features to the blockchain.

A Social Recovery feature, for instance, is expected to do away with the need to remember a long private wallet key. Similarly, the upgrade is anticipated to give wallets smart contracts-like characteristics too.

Solana leads crypto-adoption charge in Africa

Key points:

  • Crypto adoption rates across Africa have been among the fastest in the world.

  • Macro economic factors partially behind the surge in crypto adoption.

News - Most of the world may be focused on the United States and the expected launch of Spot Ethereum ETFs. However, that’s not the market where the highest crypto adoption rates are. In fact, Africa takes that cake.

From Kenya to Nigeria to South Africa, the continent has seen a surge in crypto interest, sparked by a host of external and internal factors. While several cryptos have gained some popularity in this market, Solana has specially profited from all the hype and attention.

Leading the way - Solana’s community is among the most-active on the continent, something that has served the altcoin well lately. That’s not all either, with Solana also partnering with several grassroots-level organizations such as Nigeria’s Crypto Farm in an effort to bolster adoption.

A similar agreement was signed between Solana and Flincap recently too.

Siding with crypto - One of the primary reasons behind the sharp hike in crypto adoption across Africa is the general trend of weakening domestic currencies. Most of these currencies are especially prone to bouts of devaluation and volatility.

Many in Africa see cryptos as assets that might be able to deal with inflation, without losing any of its own value. While cryptos like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana have obviously profited, so have stablecoins like USDT and USDC.

Australia’s ASX to list its second Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund

Key points:

  • DigitalX is the latest to get regulatory approval for its ETF product.

  • ETF will go live on 12 July and will trade under the ticker BTXX.

News - On the back of the United States approving and launching a host of Spot Bitcoin ETF products, it would seem that now, Australia is stepping up the pace too. Within weeks of its first such approval, the Australian Securities Exchange or ASX has now approved another ETF.

DigitalX is behind the latest ETF product. Soon after the approval came through, CEO Lisa Wade claimed,

“The DigitalX Bitcoin ETF is a spot ETF product that provides ASX customers with direct access to Bitcoin via a regulated and liquid fund structure.”

Not the first time - The ASX had approved its first Spot Bitcoin ETF on 15 June, with VanEck’s product going live by 20 June. At the time, this was seen as a watershed development, despite the fact that its volumes were much lower than expected and well below their American counterparts.

Even so, asset managers haven’t been deterred from launching more such products. In fact, like VanEck and DigitalX before it, Australia’s Betashares is also pursuing a Spot Bitcoin ETF of its own.

Interesting facts

  • Back in 2021, SpaceChain launched the first Ethereum node in space. According to the project, this experiment was intended to enhance the security and resilience of Ethereum’s blockchain, while reducing its reliance on centralized infrastructure.

  • Bitcoin has recorded over 1.037 billion transactions since its inception back in 2009. 

  • According to CoinGecko’s research report from March 2024, Solana has been the “most popular” blockchain in 2024, enjoying a share of over 49% in “global crypto investor interest in chain-specific narratives.”

Top 3 coins of the day

Bonk (BONK)

Key points:

  • BONK regained some bullish momentum on the back of Bitcoin’s recovery.

  • Memecoin climbed by over 25% in just over 48 hours.

What you should know - The popular memecoin hasn’t had a good few weeks, with BONK going on a steep downtrend after it hit a local high in May. While the last week of June and early July did see this downtrend stall, at the time of writing, BONK was still trading within a tight price range. This, despite its 25% hike in 48 hours. Sustaining this hike over a longer period will be the key to initiating a new uptrend. The same was highlighted by the crypto’s technical indicators as while the MACD was just creeping above the Signal Line, the Parabolic SAR’s dotted markers had turned freshly bullish.

Jupiter (JUP)

Key points:

  • At press time, JUP was trading at $0.78 on the charts.

  • Altcoin appreciated by just under 15% in just over 48 hours.

What you should know - Like BONK, JUP too put on some brakes to its own downtrend that had taken hold all the way back in April. While Bitcoin’s depreciation below $60,000 did have an impact on JUP, so did its lukewarm recovery, with the altcoin gaining by over 14%. This wasn’t enough to reverse its fortunes remarkably though, with the indicators implying that there was still significant bearish pressure in the market. For example, while the moving Average was positioned well above the price candles, the RSI was yet to hit a point of equilibrium on the charts.

Fantom (FTM) 

Key points:

  • FTM has seen major losses on the weekly charts lately.

  • Altcoin down over 50% since May.

What you should know - Ranked 68th on the price charts, the last few weeks have been difficult for FTM. While the months of March and April saw the altcoin hit local highs, May and June reversed those gains into losses. In fact, at the time of writing, FTM had lost 50% of its value in just 2 months, with the crypto now at the head of a steep downtrend that would need some stopping. This might not happen soon though as the Bollinger Bands were wide enough to account for some more volatility in the market. Similarly, the Chaikin Money Flow was close to zero - A sign of minimal capital inflows.

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