Bitcoin faces June’s macro gamble

June 02, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Bitcoin's June gamble: Japan’s bonds, Metaplanet's $117M buy & profit tensions

Key points:

  • Bitcoin is hovering around $105,000, with $106,261 as immediate resistance and $102,732 as a key downside level.

  • Japanese bond yields are emerging as an unexpected macro anchor for Bitcoin, influencing price dynamics more than traditional U.S. markets.

News - Bitcoin is entering June with a cautious tone, stabilizing near the $105,000 mark after a sharp retreat from its record high of over $112,000 in May. This level now acts as a psychological floor, while resistance near $106,261 could define short-term momentum.

On-chain metrics like the MVRV Deviation Bands indicate that while Bitcoin is nearing overheated territory, it hasn't yet crossed the threshold that typically triggers mass profit-taking. The result is a delicate balance: short-term holders remain in profit, supporting price stability, but any aggressive sell-offs could shift sentiment quickly.

If BTC breaks above $106,261, a retest of $110,000 may follow. On the flip side, a slip below $105,000 could drag it down to $102,732 or lower, suggesting a deeper correction.

Japan’s yield curve: Bitcoin’s surprising ally? - In an unusual macro twist, Bitcoin’s recent movements have mirrored Japan’s 30-year government bond yields more closely than U.S. tech stocks or Treasury bonds. According to analyst Weston Nakamura, this suggests that Japanese financial dynamics may now be steering global crypto trends.

Some experts even propose that surging Japanese bond yields are indirectly influencing U.S. Treasury rates, reshaping broader market sentiment, and Bitcoin’s role within it.

Metaplanet’s $117M bet cements BTC crown in Asia - While global markets waver, Metaplanet is doubling down on Bitcoin. The Tokyo-based firm added 1,088 BTC, worth roughly $117.5 million, pushing its total holdings to 8,888 BTC. This leapfrogs both Galaxy Digital and Block Inc., positioning Metaplanet as the eighth-largest corporate holder globally and the biggest in Asia.

Its aggressive strategy has drawn attention beyond crypto circles. Analysts have raised eyebrows over the firm’s valuation, with Metaplanet’s stock trading at a steep premium to actual BTC prices, stoking talk of speculative froth.

South Korea’s crypto pivot: Spot ETFs, stablecoin plans, and institutional comeback

Key points:

  • South Korea is preparing to lift its ban on institutional crypto investments by Q3 2025, alongside new KYC and stablecoin regulations.

  • The country’s June 3 presidential election won’t derail progress, both leading candidates support crypto-friendly policies.

News - South Korea is embracing a sweeping crypto overhaul. On June 1, nonprofit World Vision Korea became the first to sell Ether on Upbit under new compliance rules, marking a symbolic shift after years of regulatory freeze.

This came after the Financial Services Commission (FSC) revealed plans to impose stricter Know Your Customer (KYC) standards and operational guardrails on exchanges. By Q3, publicly listed companies and professional investors could regain access to crypto trading, ending a seven-year ban imposed in 2017.

Simultaneously, the National Assembly is reviewing a bill on tokenized securities to legally integrate blockchain-based assets into traditional finance.

Political unity fuels crypto momentum - Even with President Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment triggering snap elections, South Korea’s crypto trajectory remains steady. Both leading candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo, are pushing pro-crypto platforms. Their shared support for spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional access reflects rare bipartisan unity.

Lee is even calling for the national pension fund to invest in crypto, while Kim echoes plans to ease banking rules, offering stability for investors regardless of who wins.

Stablecoin tug-of-war signals broader tensions - With 56.81 trillion won (~$41.2B) in Q1 outflows tied to USD-backed stablecoins, Seoul regulators are growing uneasy. Lee has floated a won-backed stablecoin to plug capital flight, but the Bank of Korea is pushing back, citing risks to monetary control. As global stablecoin debates heat up, South Korea may be setting the tone for how central banks reclaim balance.

Singapore’s crypto crackdown: Overseas firms face June 30 deadline

Key points:

  • Singapore’s MAS has ordered crypto firms with local ties serving only foreign users to get licensed or shut down by June 30.

  • The regulator rejected all grace period requests, citing AML/CFT risks and reputational concerns.

News - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has issued a hard deadline of June 30 for crypto businesses operating from within the country but targeting only foreign users. These companies must secure a Digital Token Service Provider (DTSP) license under Section 137 of the Financial Services and Markets Act, or face shutdown and potential penalties.

The order targets firms incorporated or staffed in Singapore, regardless of whether they serve domestic clients. According to MAS, there will be “no transitional arrangement”, violators could be fined up to SGD 250,000 (~$185,000) or imprisoned for up to three years.

Licenses rare, standards high - MAS has signaled that licenses will only be issued in rare cases, citing elevated risks tied to money laundering and terrorism financing. Applicants must re-onboard all users with new due diligence, meet FATF Travel Rule compliance, and hold at least SGD 250,000 in base capital.

The regulator also clarified that even freelancers or consultants based in Singapore may fall under this licensing scope, depending on their activities.

Pushback denied, global parallels emerge - Crypto industry participants had requested exemptions and grace periods during last year’s consultation. MAS denied those appeals, stressing that the four-week notice from May 30 provided sufficient preparation time. The agency emphasized that regulatory gaps must be closed to prevent abuse and preserve Singapore’s reputation.

The move echoes global crackdowns, including Australia’s recent AUSTRAC fine against Cointree for AML violations, highlighting a tightening compliance trend across major crypto hubs.

ZachXBT outs $11.5M BitoPro hack, Tornado Cash in the mix

Key points:

  • Taiwan-based BitoPro confirmed a $11.5M hot wallet exploit weeks after the May 8 breach, blaming an old wallet during internal upgrades.

  • Despite the hack, the exchange insists user withdrawals remain unaffected, though transparency concerns linger.

News - Taiwan’s leading crypto exchange BitoPro has acknowledged a security breach that resulted in the theft of over $11.5 million in digital assets across Ethereum, Tron, Solana, and Polygon. The attack occurred on May 8 during a wallet system upgrade, but BitoPro only confirmed the incident on June 2, after blockchain investigator ZachXBT flagged suspicious outflows.

The stolen funds were funneled through decentralized exchanges and laundered via Tornado Cash, Thorchain, and Wasabi Wallet, tools commonly used by hackers to obfuscate transaction trails. BitoPro said the attacker exploited an “old hot wallet” during internal asset reallocation.

Despite the delay in disclosure, the exchange has maintained that user withdrawals and deposits remain unaffected, and that it holds sufficient reserves. Trading operations are reportedly running as usual.

Transparency lapses raise red flags - BitoPro’s failure to promptly disclose the hack triggered user backlash. After ZachXBT’s findings went public, users demanded answers in the exchange’s Telegram group, prompting BitoPro to release an official Chinese-language statement several hours later. The delayed response and lack of immediate public communication have raised concerns about the platform’s transparency and incident management protocols.

DeFi hacks persist across the sector - The BitoPro incident follows a string of DeFi-related exploits. On May 22, DEX platform Cetus lost $220 million before recovering a portion of the funds via validator intervention. Just days later, Nervos Network was targeted in a $3 million exploit. According to blockchain security firm Hacken, access control failures remain one of the top threats to Web3 infrastructure.

Did you know?

  • London Stock Exchange-listed IG Group lets UK retail clients trade crypto primarily via CFDs, offering price exposure without actual token ownership. FCA data shows UK crypto ownership rose from 4.4% in 2021 to 12% in 2023.

  • In March 2024, U.S. authorities seized approximately $1.4 million in Tether (USDT) from a tech support scam that deceived elderly victims into converting their savings into cryptocurrency. Tether assisted by freezing the funds and transferring them to a government-controlled wallet.

  • Cybercriminals have been targeting Mac users with fake Ledger Live apps, stealing seed phrases through phishing prompts. Since August 2024, four campaigns have spread counterfeit versions that mimic the real app and trick users during login.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Flare (FLR)

Key points:

  • At press time, FLR was trading at $0.019, down 0.26% over the last 24 hours.

  • The Parabolic SAR flipped below the candles, while the Awesome Oscillator neared the zero line.

What you should know:

FLR attempted a recovery bounce after consolidating near the $0.016–$0.017 range, with slight bullish pressure evident on the daily chart. The Awesome Oscillator’s histogram bars flipped green and inched toward the zero line, indicating a potential momentum shift. Simultaneously, the Parabolic SAR dots flipped below the price candles for the first time in two weeks, hinting at a short-term trend reversal attempt. One of the key drivers behind FLR’s recent uptick was the announcement of a new DeFi integration for XRP holders within the Flare ecosystem. This June 1 update allows XRP users to tap into high-yield DeFi opportunities directly on Flare, potentially boosting adoption and on-chain activity. The resulting interest may have contributed to growing volume and short-term bullish sentiment. If buyers manage to sustain this trend, FLR could retest the $0.020–$0.021 resistance zone. However, rejection near this level or weakening volume could trigger another dip toward the $0.017 support. The current structure remains fragile, requiring stronger confirmation before declaring a sustained uptrend.

Mask Network (MASK)

Key points:

  • At press time, MASK was trading at $2.57, down 5.75% over the last 24 hours.

  • The RSI hovered just above 71, while the Supertrend indicator continued to flash a buy signal.

What you should know:

MASK extended its bullish streak earlier this week but saw a pullback after failing to breach the $2.80–$2.90 resistance zone. The price remained well above the Supertrend baseline, reflecting a strong uptrend still in play despite the latest red candle. Meanwhile, the RSI cooled slightly from the overbought region, suggesting potential for sideways consolidation or a minor correction in the short term. Volume spikes over the past few sessions confirmed renewed market interest, supported by sustained high trading activity and growing investor optimism around MASK’s role in the evolving Web3 and decentralized identity space. The bullish trend structure has remained intact above the $2.30 support. If this support holds, bulls may attempt another rally toward the $3.00 psychological mark. A breakdown below the Supertrend flip zone, however, could invite deeper retracement toward $2.00–$2.10.

Bittensor (TAO)

Key points:

  • At press time, TAO was trading at $405, down 2.08% over the last 24 hours.

  • Price slipped below the midline of the Bollinger Bands as CMF dropped to -0.11, signaling weakening buyer pressure.

What you should know:

TAO lost momentum after facing resistance near the $440 mark, triggering a pullback that sent the price below the 20-day SMA midline. The Bollinger Bands began to narrow, hinting at declining volatility, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) slipped into negative territory for the first time in weeks, signaling capital outflows and weakening bullish conviction. Despite the retracement, TAO still trades within the broader uptrend structure that began in mid-April. A bounce from the lower Bollinger Band near $385 could provide temporary relief. However, failure to reclaim the $420 zone may result in further downside toward $370 or even $350. On the flip side, reclaiming the midline with strong volume could revive bullish hopes for a move back to $440–$460.

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