Bitcoin on the brink: Support tested

October 14, 2025

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Market fragility deepens as Bitcoin nears key support

Key points:

  • Bitcoin hovered near the short-term holder support around $112,500 as U.S. spot ETF flows flipped to a $326.5 million outflow on October 13.

  • Analysts flagged downside risks toward $103,500 if support breaks, while Citi and on-chain signals show medium-term resilience..

News - Crypto markets pulled back as Bitcoin slipped to about $110,800 and Ethereum fell below $4,000, with total market cap down roughly 4.4% in 24 hours. Analysts highlighted $112,500 as a key short-term holder realized price; repeated tests have weakened this zone. If it fails, the next short-term holder level sits near $103,500.

At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a sharp reversal to $326.5 million in outflows on October 13 after strong inflows earlier in the week. Renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and tariff headlines kept risk sentiment fragile.

Eyes on Powell, ETFs, and the dollar - Fed Chair Jerome Powell has spoken at NABE in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Markets are fully pricing an October 25 bps cut and see high odds of another in December. A dovish tone could pressure the U.S. dollar, while a cautious stance may keep USD firm.

Citi noted last week’s leveraged liquidations were sparked by U.S.–China tensions but said ETF demand from newer, less levered buyers remains resilient, keeping year-end forecasts intact at $133,000 for BTC and $4,500 for ETH.

Key levels, sentiment, and “digital gold” - On-chain gauges show stabilization after the “Great Reset.” NUPL fell to 0.50, the lowest since April, while Holder Net Position Change improved 14%, hinting that long-term holders are edging back to accumulation.

Technically, BTC needs a daily close above $115,100 to regain momentum; a break above $125,800 would flip the structure bullish. Lose $111,100 and risk extends toward $104,500 to $103,500.

Options markets show lower implied volatility and long gamma positioning that can mute rallies near term. Meanwhile, BTC’s correlation with gold has climbed above 0.85 as gold hits fresh highs, reinforcing the store-of-value narrative even as traders brace for more volatility.

Ethereum ETF outflows deepen, but traders eye $10K breakout potential

Key points:

  • Ethereum fell 8% to $3,940, triggering $115 million in long liquidations and $428.5 million in ETF outflows, the largest in over a month.

  • Despite the pullback, traders point to bullish technical setups and a forming “bull flag” pattern targeting $10,000, provided $3,800 support holds.

News - Ethereum slumped below $4,000 as broader crypto markets reacted to fresh macro pressure, including renewed U.S.–China trade tensions and Friday’s historic $19 billion liquidation event.

Ether’s 8% daily decline triggered $114.5 million in long position liquidations, with the largest order worth $5.5 million on OKX. Bid clusters between $3,670 and $3,800 suggest strong buying interest, and analysts view this range as a potential rebound zone.

However, institutional sentiment softened as Ethereum ETFs recorded $428.5 million in outflows on October 13, their sharpest one-day withdrawal since early September.

BlackRock’s ETHA led the exit with $310 million, while Grayscale’s ETHE and Fidelity’s FETH saw smaller but notable redemptions. Analysts called the withdrawals a “macro reflex,” citing tariff-driven volatility rather than a structural retreat.

Technical setup and trader outlook - Market analysts such as Titan of Crypto and Michael van de Poppe described the correction as healthy consolidation, noting that ETH/BTC’s 0.032 level “held nicely” and could mark a turning point.

The weekly chart shows a bull flag formation, with resistance near $4,440 and upside targets extending toward $10,000 if momentum returns. Still, a daily close below $3,800 risks deeper retracements toward $3,700 and $3,500.

Fusaka progress and global adoption - Adding to Ethereum’s long-term momentum, developers launched the Fusaka upgrade on the Sepolia testnet, while Bhutan became the first nation to anchor its national digital ID system on Ethereum.

The combination of ongoing network innovation and institutional participation underscores why traders believe a sustained recovery may be “loading,” even as volatility tests conviction.

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Musk breaks silence, calls Bitcoin “energy-based” amid AI ‘debasement’ debate

Key points:

  • Elon Musk agreed that surging hard assets reflect currency debasement to fund an AI arms race, adding that “it is impossible to fake energy.”

  • Despite renewed comments, there is no indication of a policy change at Tesla, which still holds roughly 11,509 BTC.

News - After a long quiet spell on Bitcoin, Elon Musk weighed in on X, replying “True” to a post linking rallies in gold, silver, and Bitcoin to government spending for AI. He added that Bitcoin is “based on energy,” arguing fiat can be created at will while energy cannot be faked.

His remarks echo the proof-of-work model where securing the network requires real electricity, and revive debate over Bitcoin’s role in an era of large AI infrastructure outlays. Reports noted Musk had been largely silent on BTC since Tesla sold about 75% of its holdings in 2022.

What Musk said, exactly - Musk endorsed the view that AI is a new global arms race funded by governments and tied Bitcoin’s appeal to scarcity rooted in energy. He wrote that governments can issue “fake fiat currency,” but “it is impossible to fake energy.” Commentators framed the post as notable given his years of limited public engagement on BTC.

Tesla’s Bitcoin position and history - Tesla bought $1.5 billion in BTC in early 2021 and briefly accepted BTC for vehicles before suspending payments over mining’s energy mix. The company later sold most of its coins in 2022 during the market downturn.

Data providers estimate Tesla still holds about 11,509 BTC, valued around $1.27 to $1.29 billion at recent prices. Musk’s latest remarks do not signal any official update on payments or treasury policy, but they underscore that he is still watching Bitcoin’s macro narrative.

Key points:

  • S&P Global Ratings is publishing its Stablecoin Stability Assessments (SSAs) directly on blockchains through Chainlink’s DataLink service, scoring stablecoins from 1 (very strong) to 5 (weak).

  • The onchain launch on Base enables DeFi protocols and institutions to automate risk management and access real-time stability data.

News - S&P Global Ratings has teamed up with Chainlink to make its Stablecoin Stability Assessments (SSAs) available directly on blockchain networks, starting with Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 Base. The collaboration marks a milestone for decentralized finance by providing traditional market-grade risk data to smart contracts and DeFi platforms.

The SSAs rate stablecoins based on their ability to maintain parity with fiat currencies, evaluating asset quality, liquidity, governance, and regulatory status.

Unlike credit ratings, the assessments focus on operational resilience and peg reliability. Chainlink’s DataLink infrastructure allows this information to be published onchain, where DeFi protocols and institutions can automatically reference and update risk profiles without relying on offchain feeds.

Chuck Mounts, Chief DeFi Officer at S&P Global, said the move “meets clients where they are,” while Chainlink co-founder Sergey Nazarov described it as a “critical bridge” connecting traditional market standards with onchain systems.

Institutional confidence and real-time risk automation - The new integration enables automated decision-making across lending and liquidity platforms, letting risk officers and developers incorporate S&P’s data directly into smart contracts.

The SSA framework currently covers 10 leading stablecoins, including USDT, USDC, and Sky Protocol’s USDS/DAI.

Expanding Chainlink’s TradFi footprint - The partnership extends Chainlink’s growing list of collaborations with major financial institutions such as Swift, JPMorgan, and Mastercard.

With the stablecoin market exceeding $300 billion and expected to reach $2 trillion by 2028, onchain ratings could help shape the next phase of institutional DeFi adoption.

Interesting facts

  • The Asia-Pacific region led global crypto growth in 2025, with on-chain value received rising ~69% year-over-year. APAC now outpaces North America in growth velocity.

  • Public companies in 2025 have already purchased 7× more Bitcoin than the total new supply mined this year, signaling outsized institutional demand.

  • The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has proposed allowing asset managers to “tokenise” their funds on public blockchains (e.g. Ethereum) to lower costs and modernise settlement.

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Top 3 coins of the day

OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP)

Key points:

  • TRUMP changed hands at $6.19, slipping 5.47% over the last 24 hours as bearish sentiment persisted following a failed rebound.

  • The Supertrend remained above the candles, signaling a sustained downtrend, while the EWO stayed in negative territory with deep red bars, confirming strong bearish momentum.

What you should know:

TRUMP extended its recent losses as traders continued to doubt the project’s proposed $200 million Digital Asset Treasury, which aimed to stabilize its token supply. The lack of progress on the plan weighed heavily on investor confidence. In parallel, regulatory uncertainty surrounding political tokens kept sentiment cautious, with the SEC still reviewing ETF-related filings linked to the asset. From a technical perspective, selling pressure dominated, with fading trading volume hinting at waning buyer conviction. The $6 level currently acts as a key psychological support, while a recovery above $7 could indicate a short-term shift in momentum.

Key points:

  • DOGE traded at $0.19, falling 7.48% in the last 24 hours as bearish sentiment deepened across the broader market.

  • The Parabolic SAR stayed above the candles, while the MACD histogram extended its red bars, indicating persistent downside pressure despite easing volume.

What you should know:

Dogecoin’s price slipped again after a brief recovery attempt, mirroring the broader crypto market’s risk-off mood. Traders largely reacted to ongoing macro uncertainty and whale short positions, both of which amplified volatility. Whales reportedly added sizable shorts during the downturn, betting on extended weakness ahead of key U.S. economic updates. On the chart, momentum indicators remained bearish, with fading trading activity reflecting reduced buyer conviction. DOGE’s immediate support is around $0.18, while resistance near $0.21 will be crucial to watch if buying pressure returns. Sustained closes below support could invite further downside in the short term.

PancakeSwap (CAKE)

Key points:

  • CAKE changed hands at $3.37, marking a 7.49% daily decline as traders locked in profits after its early-October rally.

  • The MA Ribbon began to flatten while the RSI hovered near 53, showing neutral momentum amid steady but cooling trading volumes.

What you should know:

PancakeSwap’s retracement followed a broader market-wide correction, with traders rotating out of high-performing altcoins after last week’s recovery. The downturn also coincided with rising attention around PancakeSwap’s staking migration deadline on October 23, prompting some early withdrawals from legacy pools. From a technical standpoint, CAKE’s price moved closer to the midline of its moving average ribbon, reflecting fading short-term momentum after a strong rebound phase. The token now faces support near $3.00, with resistance at $3.50 likely to test buying strength if sentiment improves. Broader market stability and smooth staking transitions will determine whether CAKE can regain momentum.

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