Bitcoin’s golden cross sparks breakout hopes

May 20, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Solana rallies on DeFi surge, institutional buys, and a bold consensus proposal

Key points:

  • SOL rose 6.3% this week, driven by DeFi inflows, staking demand, and bullish price structure amid ETF delays.

  • Solana Labs spinout Anza proposed ‘Alpenglow,’ a new consensus design aiming for Web2-level speeds and real-time finality.

News - Solana (SOL) is bouncing back with confidence, racking up a 6.3% gain as investor appetite deepens across DeFi, staking, and long-term bets on the ecosystem. Despite the SEC delaying five pending Solana ETF decisions (including from VanEck, Bitwise, and Fidelity), the token shrugged off regulatory overhang, gaining 2.7% after the announcement and trading near $169.

ETF delay doesn’t shake sentiment - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission extended its review window on the five proposed Solana ETFs, citing the need for more public input and additional deliberation. While the odds of July approval have dropped to 16% on Polymarket, long-term optimism remains intact. Similar ETF delays have hit other altcoins like XRP and Litecoin.

Still, Solana’s market action didn’t blink. The 2.7% rise post-announcement suggests growing investor confidence, driven more by network activity and institutional flows than short-term ETF speculation.

DeFi, staking, and a momentum shift - Institutional signals are fueling the momentum. Over 65% of SOL’s supply is now staked, while DeFi Development Corp’s latest treasury update revealed SOL holdings surpassing $100M. Q1 2025 app revenue reached $1.2 billion, its best quarter in a year, and on-chain data shows realized cap inflows returning after a multi-month drought—potentially signaling a larger altcoin rotation ahead.

Alpenglow aims to redefine Solana’s core - Meanwhile, network-level innovation is taking center stage. Solana Labs spinout Anza unveiled Alpenglow, a proposed consensus system that could replace the current TowerBFT + proof-of-history structure. With a target of 150ms finality, Anza claims it would make Solana competitive with Web2 speeds—unlocking real-time dApp responsiveness for finance, gaming, and more.

Alpenglow integrates two systems: Votor (block finality logic) and Rotor (data dissemination). Finalization occurs when either of these reaches consensus, potentially enabling faster block completion even under degraded network conditions.

What’s next? - Despite regulatory delays, Solana is building bullish pressure across fundamentals, technicals, and innovation. If ETF approvals arrive later this year—and Alpenglow delivers on its promise—SOL could be positioning itself as the blockchain to lead the next altcoin wave.

Bitcoin breaks $105K as ETFs surge and golden cross signals $138K target

Key points:

  • Bitcoin formed a bullish golden cross on May 20, just as ETF inflows topped $667M and open interest hit record highs.

  • BTC now eyes a breakout to $138K from a textbook cup-and-handle formation, though RSI divergence suggests a possible retest first.

News - Bitcoin is flashing multiple bullish signals as it hovers around $105,500, with a perfect storm of technical, institutional, and macro drivers in play.

On May 20, BTC’s 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day—a golden cross that historically preceded rallies of 45–60%. The last golden cross in October 2023 triggered a 45% move, while past cycles saw up to 60% upside—though false signals like February 2020’s COVID-led selloff serve as cautionary tales.

This time, the backdrop is stronger. Bitcoin ETFs logged $667 million in net inflows on the same day, led by BlackRock’s IBIT ($305M) and Fidelity’s FBTC ($188M). ETF flows have been positive 18 of the last 21 days, pushing IBIT to become the #6 fund on Wall Street by total inflows—leapfrogging even gold’s SPDR GLD.

Technical momentum builds, but so does volatility - BTC briefly spiked to $107,148, forming a cup-and-handle pattern with a potential breakout target of $138,000. But the rally isn't without friction: RSI hit overbought territory earlier in May, and bearish divergence is building. Analysts warn of a potential pullback toward $92K–$95K if momentum cools.

Still, open interest is at an all-time high ($72.6B), and call option volume is surging—both signs of continued bullish conviction in the derivatives market.

What’s next? - Bitcoin is caught between technical exuberance and caution. If it can close above $106K neckline resistance, bulls could drive price discovery toward new all-time highs—while ETF momentum and macro liquidity keep the fuel flowing.

Binance disputes $1.76B FTX lawsuit in court

Key points:

  • Binance has filed a motion to dismiss FTX’s $1.76B clawback lawsuit, calling it legally flawed and blaming FTX’s leadership for the exchange’s collapse.

  • The lawsuit centers around a 2021 share buyback deal that FTX allegedly funded with customer assets, a claim Binance says is “conjecture.”

News - The Binance–FTX legal saga is heating up again. On May 16, Binance filed a motion in Delaware Bankruptcy Court to dismiss a $1.76 billion clawback lawsuit from the FTX estate. The lawsuit seeks to recover crypto assets tied to FTX’s 2021 share repurchase, where it bought back Binance’s 20% equity stake using BNB, BUSD, and FTT—assets the FTX estate now claims were misappropriated from customers.

Binance’s legal team rejected the claims, calling them a “legally deficient attempt to shift blame” for FTX’s collapse away from founder Sam Bankman-Fried, now serving a 25-year prison sentence. The motion argues FTX remained solvent for 16 months after the buyback and that there’s no evidence Binance or former CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) played a role in the platform’s failure.

The tweet heard around crypto - FTX’s suit also accuses CZ of triggering a panic through his November 6, 2022 tweet announcing the liquidation of Binance’s FTT holdings. Binance countered that the tweet was a response to a CoinDesk exposé on Alameda Research’s balance sheet, and that the timing was coincidental—not malicious.

Binance further argues that U.S. courts lack jurisdiction, since the named entities are based offshore, and that bankruptcy “safe harbor” rules protect the 2021 transaction.

What’s next? - If the court grants the motion, the case ends here. If denied, it heads into discovery—where Binance could face further legal exposure or settle. Either way, this case is a litmus test for how far the FTX estate can go in clawing back funds for billions in unpaid creditor claims.

India’s Supreme Court slams government over crypto policy vacuum

Key points:

  • The Supreme Court of India criticized the government for taxing crypto without offering regulatory clarity, calling the situation “a danger to the economy.”

  • Justices compared Bitcoin trading to illegal hawala systems and demanded the government explain its prolonged inaction.

News - India’s long-running crypto regulatory limbo just received a public rebuke from the country’s highest court. The Supreme Court of India recently questioned why the central government has failed to publish a comprehensive crypto policy, despite imposing a 30% tax on digital asset profits.

The critique came during a bail hearing for Shailesh Babulal Bhatt, a Gujarat resident accused of crypto-related fraud. Justices Surya Kant and N. Kotiswar Singh used the case to spotlight broader systemic risks, warning that unregulated crypto markets could create a “parallel under-market” capable of undermining India’s formal economy.

Justice Kant didn’t mince words, likening Bitcoin trading to a hawala operation—a term used for informal and often illegal money transfers, which are banned in India. “If you can tax it, regulate it,” the justices urged, calling out the contradiction at the heart of the government’s current stance.

Policy delays and empty promises - The government had promised a discussion paper by September 2024 outlining its crypto policy stance. That deadline came and went without action. In court, Additional Solicitor General Aishwarya Bhati could only say that the administration would “seek instructions” on the matter, signaling yet another delay.

The court’s remarks echo a growing sentiment among Indian investors and legal experts: taxing crypto while refusing to regulate it is unsustainable—and legally inconsistent.

What’s next? - As India prepares to scale its CBDC and watches other global powers firm up crypto laws, pressure is mounting for New Delhi to act. If the Supreme Court's push gains traction, India’s long-delayed regulatory reckoning might finally arrive.

Interesting facts

  • Bitcoin nears all-time high amid institutional surge: Bitcoin is trading above $106,000 today, approaching its all-time high, driven by increased institutional interest and favorable regulatory developments, even as the market shrugs off a recent U.S. credit downgrade.

  • U.S. Senate advances landmark stablecoin regulation: The U.S. Senate has advanced the GENIUS Act with a 66–32 vote, aiming to establish the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, marking a significant milestone for the crypto industry.

  • JPMorgan embraces Bitcoin despite CEO's past skepticism: In a notable policy shift, JPMorgan Chase announced it will allow clients to purchase Bitcoin, reflecting a broader wave of institutional adoption in 2025, despite CEO Jamie Dimon's previous criticism of the cryptocurrency.

Top 3 coins of the day

Aave (AAVE)

Key points:

  • At press time, AAVE was trading at $260, up 5.27% over the last 24 hours.

  • It was among the day’s top gainers, climbing above the $260 mark for the first time in months.

What you should know:

AAVE continued its breakout rally, gaining over 5% on the day and breaching the $260 zone. The bullish momentum was fueled by the U.S. Senate advancing the GENIUS Act—a stablecoin regulation bill seen as a major boost for DeFi protocols like Aave. The token also benefited from the launch of Aave v3 on the Aptos blockchain, which expanded cross-chain lending capabilities and contributed to a 42% surge in open interest. Whale accumulation added to the momentum, with a single investor reportedly buying $7.45 million worth of AAVE in just two days. The token stayed above its 9-day SMA, while the Awesome Oscillator flashed expanding green bars, confirming sustained buying pressure. If bullish sentiment holds, AAVE could next test resistance near $280. On the downside, $233—close to the 9-day SMA—remains a key support level.

Bittensor (TAO)

Key points:

  • At press time, TAO was trading at $413, up 0.54% over the last 24 hours.

  • It traded near the midline of its Bollinger Bands after correcting from May highs above $480.

What You Should Know:

TAO posted a modest gain on the day as it attempted to stabilize above $410. The token recently pulled back from a strong rally that peaked above $480, cooling off near the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Despite the consolidation, the bullish structure remained intact, with price staying above the 20-day SMA and within the upper half of the band range. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) hovered in positive territory, suggesting that capital inflows remained steady even as momentum slowed. Volume, however, showed no major spikes—indicating reduced speculative pressure. If buyers regain control, TAO could attempt to retest the $440–$460 resistance zone. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band near $334 could act as the next key support if sentiment weakens.

Litecoin (LTC)

Key points:

  • At press time, LTC was trading at $92, down 5.71% over the last 24 hours.

  • It was one of the day’s top losers, falling below the 9-day SMA for the first time in over two weeks.

What You Should Know:

Litecoin slipped nearly 6% as bearish pressure pushed the price below the 9-day SMA, snapping its short-term uptrend. The drop followed a failed attempt to sustain above the $100 level, signaling increased selling around that psychological resistance zone. The decline came despite renewed buzz in the community following speculation about a potential collaboration between Cardano and Litecoin. Charles Hoskinson’s public praise for the LTC community and hints of a DeFi link via Cardano’s ‘Midnight’ sidechain sparked optimism, though no formal roadmap has been announced. The Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) turned lower, with a weakening green histogram suggesting fading bullish momentum. Volume remained steady without any signs of panic exits. If the pullback deepens, LTC may revisit support around the $85–$88 range. Conversely, reclaiming $95–$98 could help restore short-term bullish control.

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