Bitcoin’s July breakout incoming?

July 01, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Bitcoin eyes July breakout: $110K before $200K?

Key points:

  • BTC hovered near $107K despite a shaky start to July, with historical trends, ETF inflows, and whale confidence pointing to an optimistic month.

  • Profit-taking risk remains elevated as 96% of supply sits in profit, while analysts project potential upside toward $110K and even $200K by year-end.

News - Bitcoin kicked off July with uncertainty, but traders remain bullish on its monthly performance. Historically, July has delivered consistent gains for the S&P 500, with Bitcoin often following suit. Despite initial dips to $106.5K, BTC’s losses have remained under 10%, a trend that has historically signaled strength.

Bitcoin ETFs saw $4.5 billion in inflows this month, boosting investor confidence. Over 574,000 BTC, worth more than $61 billion, were accumulated between $100K and $103K, making this a strong support zone. Institutional sentiment remains optimistic, with analysts expecting a breakout above $109K if support levels hold.

Historical trends vs. technical reality - Chart watchers point to a descending wedge and double-bottom formation, which could trigger an upside move. While July’s median return sits at 8.09%, short-term volatility may push BTC below $101K again before reclaiming $110K. Still, historical price behavior and bullish ETF inflows hint at a near-term rally.

Big players stack Bitcoin - Corporate treasuries are also fueling optimism. UK-based Smarter Web Company now holds over 773 BTC after a fresh $24.7M buy, while MARA Holdings nears the 50K BTC milestone. In Paris, The Blockchain Group raised $13M to grow its digital asset strategy, joined by notable investors like Adam Back. As institutional accumulation deepens, traders eye a long-term target of $200K, though short-term correction risks remain due to high profitability levels.

Musk vs Trump turns nuclear: DOGE threat, $10B xAI raise, and crypto tax clash

Key points:

  • Elon Musk’s xAI secured a $10 billion raise, even as his feud with President Trump rattled markets and DOGE led a crypto dip.

  • Senator Lummis introduced a pro-crypto tax amendment, while a rival bill to ban government crypto ownership was rejected.

News - Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence firm xAI has closed a massive $10 billion raise to accelerate development of its Grok chatbot and Memphis-based Colossus supercomputer. But the funding high was quickly dampened by a political low. Musk’s renewed feud with U.S. President Donald Trump sent tremors across the crypto market—DOGE plunged, Bitcoin faltered, and five of the top 10 tokens slipped into the red.

Trump lashed out at Musk on Truth Social, calling him the most subsidized human in history and proposing that the government’s cost-cutting watchdog, DOGE, ironically co-created by Musk, investigate his companies. “No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production,” Trump warned, suggesting Musk’s empire should be trimmed to save “BIG MONEY.”

Musk fired back on X, branding Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” a debt disaster and pledging to form a new “America Party” if it passes. His attacks on government overspending triggered broader concern, echoing June’s Musk-Trump spat that wiped $150 billion off Tesla’s market cap and sparked $1 billion in crypto liquidations.

A broken union, a divided market - DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency, was once a shared vision of disruption between Musk and Trump. Now, it’s the centerpiece of a bitter divorce playing out in full public view. Trump’s attacks on Musk’s federal support draw attention to Tesla’s $1.2B Bitcoin holdings and the duo’s tangled web of influence in crypto.

Crypto tax debate enters the fray - Meanwhile, Senator Cynthia Lummis is pushing for crypto-friendly tax reforms in Trump’s spending bill. Her amendment would waive taxes on sub-$300 transactions and defer taxation on mined or staked assets until sold. On the other side, a Democrat-led amendment banning crypto promotion by government officials, potentially impacting Musk, was voted down after backlash from crypto advocates.

Trump-backed Bitcoin miner raises $220M, eyes UAE expansion

Key points:

  • Trump-linked American Bitcoin raised $220M, $10M in BTC, to upgrade mining gear and boost its treasury.

  • Parent firm Hut 8 opened a Dubai office to expand crypto trading, despite political calls to keep crypto ‘Made in America.’

News - American Bitcoin, a Miami-based mining firm backed by Eric and Donald Trump Jr., has raised $220 million from accredited investors, surpassing its original $200M goal. Notably, $10 million of the total came in the form of Bitcoin, acquired at an average price of $104,000 per coin.

The company plans to deploy the funds toward upgrading its mining fleet and adding more BTC to its treasury, which stood at 215 BTC as of June 10. The private placement involved over 11 million shares, and after fees, netted $215M. American Bitcoin is currently 80% owned by Hut 8, which acquired a majority stake in March, while the Trump brothers retain 20%.

This fundraising push precedes American Bitcoin’s upcoming public listing via a stock merger with Nasdaq-listed Gryphon Digital Mining. Once finalized, Eric Trump will join the board of the newly formed entity.

Dubai moves add controversy - Meanwhile, Hut 8 has expanded into Dubai with a new trading-focused office under the name Hut 8 Investment Ltd. While the firm clarified this venture is separate from American Bitcoin, it highlights an ongoing trend: despite vocal U.S. pro-crypto stances, Trump-aligned firms are doubling down in overseas jurisdictions like the UAE.

The Dubai move reflects growing industry confidence in the region’s regulatory clarity, with leaders from Clearpool and Animoca Brands noting it enables deeper capital strategies, especially for firms managing large BTC reserves.

What’s next? - As the Trump-affiliated crypto ecosystem gains steam, the juxtaposition of domestic rhetoric and offshore action may shape broader debates on crypto policy, capital flight, and transparency.

Circle’s bank bid and Wall Street divide: Boom or bubble?

Key points:

  • Circle’s stock has surged nearly 490% since its IPO, but Ark Invest and JPMorgan see downside risk amid valuation concerns.

  • Meanwhile, Circle has applied for a national trust bank license, aiming to oversee its own USDC reserves under OCC oversight.

News - Circle’s post-IPO high may be facing its first real test. After an explosive 490% rally from its $31 offering price to a $299 peak, the stablecoin issuer’s stock has come under pressure, sliding to $181 as of Monday’s close. The volatility hasn’t gone unnoticed: Ark Invest sold over $110 million worth of Circle shares in recent weeks, while JPMorgan slapped an “underweight” rating on the stock, forecasting a drop to $80 by end-2026.

But not everyone is bearish. Citi initiated coverage with a “buy” rating and a $243 price target, citing Circle’s stablecoin neutrality, potential operating leverage, and “winner takes most” market position. According to the bank, Circle could emerge as the key facilitator of global stablecoin adoption.

A bank of its own - In a strategic pivot, Circle has applied to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) for a national trust bank license. If approved, the newly proposed First National Digital Currency Bank would directly manage USDC’s $61B+ reserves. While the trust charter wouldn’t permit lending or taking deposits, it would align Circle with the GENIUS Act’s compliance framework, marking a milestone in its long-term regulatory roadmap.

Sell signal or sector rebalancing? - While Ark’s $110M sell-off raises red flags for some, others see it as a simple profit-taking move following crypto stocks’ 119% rally this year. Ark’s rotation into tech names like AMD and Shopify may also signal a broader shift toward lower-risk equities, especially as analysts remain split on whether Circle’s valuation reflects future potential or frothy momentum.

Interesting facts

  • Bolivians turn to crypto amid economic crisis: Crypto transactions in Bolivia surged over 530% between H1 2024 and H1 2025, with a record $68 million processed in May, as small businesses and residents seek refuge from inflation and plunging reserves.

  • $TRUMP memecoin skyrocketed to billions overnight: Launched in January 2025 on Solana, the $TRUMP memecoin surged in value by over 300% in one night, briefly becoming one of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap and generating $350 million in early token sales for Trump-affiliated entities.

  • Nobitex ETH hack hits $90 million: In June 2025, hackers, allegedly tied to the group “Predatory Sparrow”, exploited Iran’s largest exchange Nobitex, making off with around $90 million in digital assets days after Israeli missile strikes.

Top 3 coins of the day

Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

Key points:

  • At press time, BCH was trading at $516, reflecting a 2.10% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The Awesome Oscillator showed continued green bars, while the Supertrend indicator flashed a clear buy signal.

What you should know:

Bitcoin Cash continued its upward climb, breaking past the $510 level with consistent bullish momentum. The price has been riding above the Supertrend line since late April, and this indicator remained in buy mode throughout June, reinforcing bullish conviction. Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator displayed strong positive momentum, with a sustained series of green bars climbing higher. This suggested growing market strength and a potential continuation of the uptrend. Externally, a $12.6M short squeeze pushed BCH higher as it crossed $515, while social sentiment also turned upbeat—retail mentions rose 40% over the week. On the macro front, speculation of a July Fed rate cut and Metaplanet’s $108M BTC purchase further boosted crypto risk appetite. As long as BCH holds above the $500 psychological mark, the bullish structure remains intact. However, traders should watch the $530–$550 range, which may act as resistance due to past accumulation zones and possible profit-taking.

Kaia (KAIA)

Key points:

  • At press time, KAIA was trading at $0.16, reflecting a modest 0.94% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The 9-day SMA stayed above the latest candlesticks, while the DMI suggested waning bullish strength amid declining volumes.

What you should know:

After briefly approaching the $0.22 level last week, KAIA began pulling back, registering multiple red candles in recent days. The short-term trend weakened as prices fell below the 9-day SMA, signaling fading bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the DMI’s +DI line was holding just above the -DI, indicating buyers still maintained slight control, though the gap has narrowed. The ADX hovered near 30, reflecting a still-strong but waning trend. Interestingly, Kaia’s mild rebound from its June 30 low coincided with GroundX (Kakao’s blockchain arm) stepping down from its governance council — a move perceived by the market as a decentralization milestone. This news sparked a sharp 43% spike in daily trading volume to over $82 million, confirming renewed coin-specific interest despite a broader market dip. Unless KAIA reclaims the 9-day SMA and sees continued volume strength, further downside toward the $0.15 zone remains likely. Reclaiming the $0.18–$0.20 range would be key to reviving bullish sentiment.

Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)

Key points:

  • At press time, PENGU was trading at $0.014, marking a mild 0.29% dip over the last 24 hours.

  • The price hovered near the upper Bollinger Band, while the RSI lingered just below the overbought threshold at 69.7.

What you should know:

PENGU surged over the past few sessions, breaking past its mid-June resistance near $0.012 and rallying toward $0.015. The breakout was accompanied by a sharp rise in trading volume and speculation around the CBOE’s filing to list the Canary PENGU ETF — a first-of-its-kind product that would hold both the token and Pudgy Penguins NFTs. This narrative, paired with bullish sentiment, drove a 7% daily gain and $550M+ in volume. Currently, the price hovers near the upper Bollinger Band, a region that often signals short-term reversals. The widening bands also suggest increasing volatility. Meanwhile, the RSI lingered just below 70, reflecting strong buyer momentum that hasn’t yet turned overheated. If bulls manage a close above $0.016, the rally could extend. But failure to hold $0.014 may trigger a pullback to the $0.012–$0.013 support zone.

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