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- Bitcoin steadies as inflation boosts cut odds
Bitcoin steadies as inflation boosts cut odds
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Bitcoin holds near 119K as softer U.S. inflation lifts September cut odds
Key points:
U.S. CPI rose 2.7 percent year over year in July while Core CPI reached 3.1 percent, a mixed print versus expectations.
Bitcoin hovered just under 119K after the release, as Ethereum pushed above 4,400 alongside notable short liquidations.
News - July inflation landed close to forecasts. Headline CPI increased 0.2 percent month over month and 2.7 percent year over year, slightly below the 2.8 percent estimate. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 percent on the month and 3.1 percent on the year. Rate‑cut probabilities for September climbed from roughly 84 percent before the data to about 90 percent afterward, according to CME FedWatch.
Bitcoin edged higher to just below 119K following the print. Ethereum outperformed, touching the 4,400 area as roughly 40 million dollars of ETH shorts were liquidated over one hour. U.S. equity futures firmed, the dollar eased, and the 10‑year Treasury yield dipped. Analysts noted shelter inflation showed signs of moderating in July, though several desks continue to monitor the potential impact of recent tariffs on prices in the months ahead.
Positioning and flows - Analysts ahead of the release flagged 0.3 to 0.4 percent core inflation scenarios, with a rate cut still likely in September. If inflation had surprised higher, markets expected focus to shift to Jackson Hole for policy signals.
Treasuries and ETH accumulation - Japan’s Metaplanet and the U.K.’s Smarter Web Company disclosed nearly 100 million dollars of additional Bitcoin for corporate treasuries. On the Ether side, BitMine filed for a sizable at‑the‑market program and SharpLink completed a raise with the intent to acquire ETH. Separate reports highlight heavy whale buying, record ETF inflows, and elevated open interest as ETH trades near cycle highs.
XRP pulls back 8% post-SEC win, analysts eye $4 breakout, and $12.60 long-term
Key points:
XRP has fallen nearly 8% in four days to around $3.11, with support near $3.05–$3.15 and resistance at $3.42.
Analysts cite legal clarity from Ripple’s SEC settlement as a catalyst for potential moves toward $4 in the short term and up to $12.60 in the longer cycle.
News - XRP has retreated almost 8% over the past four sessions, sliding from above $3.40 to lows near $3.11. Analysts attribute the pullback to profit-taking after a strong rally, as well as caution ahead of the U.S. CPI release. Daily trading volumes remain elevated, with institutional interest intact despite the dip.
The drop follows Ripple Labs’ formal settlement with the SEC, ending a nearly five-year legal battle. The resolution has boosted trading volumes by 208% to $12.4 billion and opened the door to greater institutional participation. SEC officials, including Chair Paul Atkins, said the agency can now focus on creating a clear regulatory framework for digital assets.
Technical analysts highlight $3.42 as the key breakout level that could pave the way to $3.60–$4.00. Ali Chart points to a multi-year triangle breakout and the SEC win as the foundation for a potential surge to $12.60 this cycle. Trader forecasts vary widely, with some projecting $5.05 by end-2025 and others eyeing $27–$34 if ETF approvals and macro conditions align.
Corporate and whale accumulation - Hyperscale Data’s Sentinum unit added 8,150 XRP in early August, lifting its holdings to over 15,000 tokens. The company plans to purchase up to $10 million of XRP using a dollar-cost averaging strategy.
Valuation concerns - Despite optimism, some analysts warn XRP’s $190 billion market cap is 2,200 times its XRPL total value locked, signaling overvaluation risks. Bearish RSI divergence suggests a possible correction toward $2.32 if momentum fades, though others maintain targets as high as $10 in the coming months.
Circle stock jumps on 53% revenue surge and new Arc blockchain launch
Key points:
Circle’s Q2 revenue climbed 53% year over year to $658 million, driven by a 90% jump in USDC circulation to $65.6 billion.
The company unveiled Arc, an EVM-compatible layer-1 blockchain using USDC as its native gas token, set for public testnet launch this fall.
News - Circle (CRCL) shares rose over 11% in pre-market trading after the stablecoin issuer reported a 53% increase in year-over-year revenue to $658 million in Q2 2025. The growth was fueled by a sharp rise in USDC circulation, which reached $65.6 billion, and $5.9 trillion in on-chain transaction volume. Reserve income accounted for $634 million of total revenue.
The quarter marked Circle’s first earnings release since its June IPO, which raised $1.05 billion and briefly pushed shares to an all-time high of $292.80 before retreating to $161.17 by Monday’s close. The company posted a $482 million net loss, largely from non-cash IPO-linked expenses including $424 million in stock-based compensation and $167 million from a higher valuation of convertible debt. EBITDA rose 52% to $126 million.
Alongside its earnings, Circle announced Arc, an enterprise-focused blockchain designed for stablecoin payments, foreign exchange, and capital markets. Arc will be EVM-compatible, integrate a stablecoin FX engine, offer sub-second settlement, and feature opt-in privacy controls. USDC will serve as the chain’s native gas token, and the network will be fully integrated across Circle’s existing platforms while remaining interoperable with other supported blockchains.
Regulatory tailwinds - Circle’s expansion comes after the U.S. GENIUS Act created a federal framework for payment stablecoins, positioning the company to benefit as demand grows.
Competition emerging - Arc enters a crowded field of new blockchain launches from both crypto and traditional finance players, including projects from Stripe, Robinhood, and Shopify targeting payment and tokenization markets.
Qubic’s Monero takeover claim sparks 51% attack debate and price drop
Key points:
Qubic founder Sergey Ivancheglo says his network reached majority control of Monero’s hashrate, triggering a six-block chain reorganization and industry warnings.
Monero’s price fell over 8% to about $248, while developers dispute whether the event was a full 51% attack or a lucky reorganization.
News - Layer-1 blockchain Qubic claims it has achieved 51% control of Monero’s global hashrate, concluding a month-long effort that coincided with a six-block-deep chain reorganization. The move has reignited concerns about one of crypto’s most disruptive threats, a 51% attack, which, if sustained, could allow block reorganizations, transaction censorship, and potential double-spending.
Qubic’s “useful proof-of-work” model routes mining power toward Monero’s RandomX algorithm, converts the mined XMR into USDT, and uses the proceeds to buy and burn QUBIC tokens. From May to late July, its estimated share of Monero’s hashrate jumped from under 2% to above 25%, at times topping pool rankings before the alleged push to majority control.
Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet warned that Monero “appears to be in the midst of a successful 51% attack,” estimating dominance could cost about $75 million per day. Others, including SeraiDEX lead developer Luke Parker, countered that the six-block reorganization may simply reflect luck by a high-hash adversary, not sustained control. SlowMist founder Yu Xian questioned the economics of maintaining majority hashrate and the lack of verifiable pool data after Qubic stopped public reporting.
Monero network impact - The reorganization reportedly discarded 60 previously valid blocks, with orphaned blocks appearing across the network. The Monero community has attempted countermeasures, including a distributed denial-of-service attack on Qubic’s pool in late July.
Market reaction - Monero’s price fell more than 8% in 24 hours and 16% over the week. QUBIC traded near $0.0000023, with a market cap of roughly $280 million.
More stories from the crypto ecosystem
Interesting Facts
Over the weekend, Treasuries held at a DTCC subsidiary were tokenized and used as collateral to borrow USDC in a live repo trade, showing how repo can run 24/7 on‑chain.
Almost 8% of Ethereum’s total supply now sits in ETFs or company reserves, up from about 3% in April; ETFs alone account for over 5% of circulating ETH.
After the new U.S. stablecoin law took effect, multiple companies are preparing stablecoins, though experts flag capital, supervision,and banking hurdles before launches.
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Top 3 coins of the day
Tezos (XTZ)
Key points:
XTZ traded at $0.90, marking a 10.42% daily rise, outpacing the broader market.
The Parabolic SAR flipped bullish, while the Awesome Oscillator showed rising positive momentum.
What you should know:
XTZ’s latest surge came alongside bullish catalysts in its ecosystem. On August 12, Hex Trust launched custody support for xU3O8, a tokenized uranium asset on Tezos’ Etherlink L2, reinforcing its position in regulated RWA tokenization. Etherlink also saw its DeFi total value locked (TVL) hit $47.7M, aided by Curve Finance’s recent deployment and a $3M incentive program, driving a 189% QoQ spike in transactions. On the chart, the Parabolic SAR dots shifted below the candles, signaling an upward trend, while the Awesome Oscillator moved further into green territory, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. If buyers hold momentum, immediate resistance lies at $0.93, with stronger upside potential toward $1.04. On the downside, support rests at $0.84.
Ethereum (ETH)
Key points:
ETH traded at $4,408, climbing 4.31% in the last 24 hours and extending its recent bullish run.
The Supertrend maintained a buy signal, while the EWO stayed firmly in positive territory.
What you should know:
ETH’s latest rally was supported by multiple bullish drivers. July’s U.S. CPI came in at 2.7% YoY versus the expected 2.8%, increasing the probability of a September Fed rate cut to 82.5%. ETF flows also surged, with BlackRock’s ETHA posting a record $639M single-day inflow, contributing to over $1B in total ETH ETF inflows on August 12. On the chart, the Supertrend line remained well below the candles, reinforcing the prevailing uptrend, while the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) stayed strong in the green, signaling sustained bullish momentum. Volume activity also reflected heightened buying pressure. If momentum persists, ETH could test resistance near $4,500, while support sits at $4,155.
Uniswap (UNI)
Key points:
UNI was priced at $11.34, gaining 2.77% over the past 24 hours while sustaining its bullish structure.
The Parabolic SAR dots stayed below the candles, with the MACD line holding above the signal line.
What you should know:
UNI’s latest price movement was supported by governance optimism and solid technicals. The Uniswap Foundation proposed forming a Wyoming-based legal entity under the DUNA framework, which would shield governance participants from liability and pave the way for activating the protocol fee switch, potentially generating $90M per month at current volumes. On the chart, the Parabolic SAR maintained its bullish alignment, while the MACD line remained above the signal line, indicating continued upward momentum. Trading volume also showed increased buying activity. If momentum persists, UNI could challenge resistance at $11.60, while $10.54 remains a key support zone to watch.
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