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- Bitcoin steady at $98K, $100K next
Bitcoin steady at $98K, $100K next
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Bitcoin holds $98K: Bulls target $100K amid Microsoft rejection
Key points:
Bitcoin has been seeking recovery near $98K after Microsoft declined corporate BTC treasury adoption.
Analysts have pointed to $98K as a key resistance level for bulls to break for a new $100K rally.
News - Bitcoin traded around $98,000 on December 11, 2024, rebounding after a rejection by Microsoft to integrate Bitcoin into its corporate treasury. The tech giant’s decision was criticized by crypto advocates, including MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who called it a missed opportunity for long-term value.
Despite this setback, BTC/USD showed resilience, gaining 1.5% intraday. Traders like Skew noted that the market equilibrium now hovers around $97K, with buyers needing to reclaim $98K to push the price toward $100K.
What’s next for Bitcoin? - According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin has been mirroring price action seen in December 2023. While another dip is possible, altcoins may soon see renewed bullish momentum. Additionally, the upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November could add macroeconomic volatility to the crypto market.
Skew warned that inflationary trends could spook investors, potentially affecting BTC’s trajectory in the short term.
Market outlook:
Bullish case - Breaking $98K resistance could pave the way for a rally beyond $100K.
Bearish case - Failing to hold above $96K may lead to further downside pressure, retesting lower support levels.
Derive predicts low probability for ETH to hit $5K by year-end
Key points:
Low probability - Onchain protocol Derive reported that Ethereum (ETH) has an 8% chance of hitting $5,000 by December 27, 2024.
Bullish sentiment - Daily ETF inflows hit $305M, sparking optimism among traders about ETH’s potential rally.
News - Ethereum’s price target of $5,000 by the end of 2024 seems increasingly unlikely, with Derive estimating the probability at just over 8%. This marks a decrease from the 16% peak probability recorded earlier in December, as highlighted by Derive’s head of research, Sean Dawson. To hit $5,000, ETH would require a 37% jump from its current price of $3,669.
Dawson also noted that trading activity for ETH options remains evenly distributed between calls and puts, reflecting neutral market sentiment.
ETF inflows signal optimism - Despite Derive’s cautious outlook, market participants remain bullish, pointing to significant daily inflows into Ether ETFs. On December 10, 2024, alone, Ether ETFs saw inflows of $305 million, with $202.2 million attributed to Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund. Ethereum advocate Eric Conner described this as a sign of a “supply-side crisis,” while educator Anthony Sassano observed, “TradFi is gobbling up the cheap ETH.”
Bullish calls persist - Some market participants remain confident that ETH will hit $5,000. Crypto trader CoinMamba reaffirmed their year-end price target for ETH in a December 10 post, despite Derive’s probability estimates. Meanwhile, Bankless podcast host Ryan Adams suggested Ether could reach a new all-time high of $4,878 within a week, bolstered by rising ETF flows.
What's next? - Ethereum’s path to $5,000 may hinge on continued institutional interest and ETF inflows. However, with neutral market sentiment and the current price far below the target, the journey appears challenging. Analysts will watch for structural shifts in market dynamics that could support a potential rally.
US inflation steady at 2.7%: Positive outlook for crypto market
Key points:
Stable inflation data - November CPI increased by 2.7% YoY, with Core CPI at 3.3%, aligning with forecasts and signaling economic stability.
Bullish sentiment for crypto - Controlled inflation supports liquidity, reducing the likelihood of aggressive policy shifts and maintaining investor confidence in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
News - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November rose 2.7% year-over-year, meeting market expectations. Similarly, Core CPI, excluding food and energy, recorded a 3.3% rise, also aligning with forecasts. These figures indicate stable inflation levels, reducing uncertainty in financial markets and fostering a supportive environment for risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies.
Following the announcement, Bitcoin maintained its price stability, reflecting the market’s confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage inflation without introducing rapid interest rate hikes.
Impact on crypto - Stable inflation data is considered a positive signal for cryptocurrencies, often seen as a hedge against inflation. Historical trends show that aligned inflation data reduces volatility and enhances liquidity, paving the way for continued bullish momentum in crypto markets. For instance, October’s CPI alignment contributed to Bitcoin’s surge to $92,000, underscoring the interplay between inflation and crypto price action.
Market dynamics - When inflation aligns with forecasts, it signals economic predictability and reduces the likelihood of disruptive monetary policy changes. Lower interest rate hikes ensure steady liquidity flows, encouraging capital allocation into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Investors are now optimistic that the current conditions will sustain a bullish crypto market cycle through December.
What's next? - As inflation remains controlled, the crypto market is poised for continued growth. However, investors should stay vigilant, keeping an eye on economic indicators and central bank actions, as these remain critical in shaping market dynamics in the coming months.
MicroStrategy’s Nasdaq-100 entry could ignite $2.1B ETF buying frenzy
Key points:
Upcoming inclusion - MicroStrategy is projected to join the Nasdaq-100, becoming the 40th largest holding with an estimated 0.47% weighting.
Market impact - The inclusion could prompt $2.1 billion in ETF share purchases, potentially influencing trading volumes significantly.
News - MicroStrategy, the leading crypto-focused enterprise, is poised for a pivotal moment in mainstream finance. According to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the company's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index could trigger significant ETF inflows, totaling $2.1 billion.
This inclusion is expected to make MicroStrategy the 40th largest holding in the index, with a weighting of approximately 0.47%. Analysts anticipate an official announcement on December 13, 2024, with the implementation slated for December 23, 2024. If realized, this shift could represent 20% of MicroStrategy’s daily trading volume.
A milestone for crypto integration - The Nasdaq-100 indexes the largest non-financial companies on the Nasdaq exchange, influencing sectors like technology and consumer services. It also underpins investment products such as the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, a crucial mechanism for institutional and retail participation.
MicroStrategy's addition would mark a significant milestone for crypto-focused companies entering mainstream finance. With $550 billion in ETF assets tracking the Nasdaq-100, the inclusion is set to reshape portfolio strategies, boosting trading volumes and market sentiment.
Broader context - MicroStrategy’s inclusion aligns with its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition strategy. Earlier this week, the company purchased an additional 21,550 BTC for $2.1 billion, bringing its holdings to 423,650 BTC, valued at roughly $42 billion. This purchase follows the company’s fifth consecutive buy, further cementing its role as a leader in crypto adoption.
The market has responded positively. MicroStrategy shares have surged over 450% in 2024, vastly outpacing Bitcoin's 110% rise during the same period. This trend underscores traditional investors’ growing interest in gaining crypto exposure through equity markets.
What’s next? - While the inclusion in the S&P 500 remains challenging due to profitability requirements, analysts suggest upcoming Bitcoin accounting changes could pave the way by 2025. For now, MicroStrategy’s entry into the Nasdaq-100 is a critical step in its journey toward integrating cryptocurrency into traditional financial ecosystems.
More stories from the crypto ecosystem
Did you know?
Bitcoin's first block (the "genesis block") contained a hidden message from Satoshi Nakamoto: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." This was a commentary on the financial crisis of 2008 and the motivation behind Bitcoin’s creation.
In 2018, a cryptocurrency called "PizzaCoin" was launched as a tribute to the famous 10,000 BTC pizza purchase by Laszlo Hanyecz. PizzaCoin aimed to create a loyalty program for pizza lovers, leveraging blockchain for reward systems in the pizza industry.
Crypto mining can take place in unconventional locations. In 2018, Iceland’s cool climate and cheap energy led to a surge in crypto mining farms. The country became a hub for mining, with some farms consuming as much electricity as all of Iceland's households combined.
Top 3 coins of the day
Raydium (RAY)
Key points:
At press time, RAY was trading at $5.59, reflecting an approximate 14.22% increase over the last 24 hours.
It was one of the biggest gainers in the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap's data.
What you should know:
The daily chart demonstrated a strong bullish resurgence for RAY. Moreover, the price moved above the SMA 9, suggesting sustained bullish momentum. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) transitioned from a bearish phase to green bars, indicating renewed positive momentum. Additionally, the trading volume surged, reinforcing heightened interest in the token. Immediate resistance is seen at $6.00, while support can be found near $5.00. A sustained break above the resistance level could propel RAY to test higher levels, while a dip below support might suggest a temporary pause in the uptrend.
Ethereum (ETH)
Key points:
At press time, ETH was trading at $3,772, increasing by 3.97% over the last 24 hours.
It was one of the top trending cryptocurrencies in the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap.
What you should know:
Ethereum was seen to be experiencing an upward momentum on the daily chart, supported by key technical indicators. The Bollinger Bands were diverging, indicating heightened volatility. The price was trading close to the upper band, signaling possible overbought conditions. Meanwhile, the MACD showed bullish momentum, with the MACD line remaining above the signal line, though a slight convergence was visible, suggesting a potential weakening in bullish strength. Trading volume was substantial, reflecting strong market participation. Traders should monitor the $3,800 level as potential resistance, with support seen near $3,650. A breakout above the resistance could pave the way for further gains, while a pullback might lead to consolidation.
Mog Coin (MOG)
Key points:
At press time, MOG was trading at $0.000003252.
Declining by approximately 2.55% over the last 24 hours, it was one of the biggest losers, according to CoinMarketCap.
What you should know:
On the daily timeframe, MOG exhibited a slight bearish trend. The Parabolic SAR dots positioned above the price action indicated a downtrend. Additionally, the RSI was hovering at 58.66, close to the neutral zone, suggesting the coin was neither overbought nor oversold. However, it signaled a weakening bullish momentum. Volume decreased slightly, reflecting reduced market activity and investor interest. Traders should keep an eye on the $0.000003000 level as potential support, with resistance near $0.000003440, the intraday high. A sustained drop below the support could trigger further declines. Conversely, breaking the resistance might indicate a reversal.
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