CBDC ban may become law tonight

July 10, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Bitcoin’s $64K rebound puts Strategy fears on trial

Key points:

  • Bitcoin recovered toward $64,400 as the Coinbase Premium reclaimed its 14-day moving average, pointing to renewed buying from U.S.-based whales.

  • The premium remains negative and $65,000 is still unresolved, while Standard Chartered says Strategy’s Bitcoin sales are mostly noise rather than a medium-term signal.

News - Bitcoin returned to roughly $64,400 on Friday, nearing a three-week high as crypto strengthened despite weaker U.S. equity futures. Lower oil prices, easing dollar strength, and improving derivatives positioning formed the backdrop to the move, but the rebound still faces an important confirmation test.

The U.S. bid supplied the spark - CryptoQuant linked Bitcoin’s climb from $58,000 to $64,000 to the Coinbase Premium recovering above its 14-day simple moving average. The index, however, remained near -0.08. U.S. whale demand is improving, but a move above zero is still needed before the shift can be treated as a broader market regime change.

Strategy’s selling scare lost some force - Strategy’s sale of 3,588 BTC to fund preferred-share dividends and top up its cash reserve unsettled the market. Standard Chartered called the move mostly noise and kept its $100,000 end-2026 Bitcoin forecast, arguing that clearer communication could reduce fears of wholesale selling.

The breakout still has to earn itself - Bitcoin’s immediate hurdle remains $65,000, with a clean break potentially reopening the path toward $67,250. About 6% of circulating supply last moved between $58,000 and $64,000, creating a potential support area below. 

Open interest also rose as trading volume declined, suggesting more deliberate positioning. Still, Bitcoin has spent 307 days inside the $60,000 to $70,000 band, making this one of its longest historical consolidations.

CBDC ban advances as CLARITY loses time

Key points:

  • A four-year ban on a Federal Reserve-issued digital dollar is set to become law at midnight unless President Donald Trump formally vetoes the housing bill.

  • Trump’s push to prioritize the SAVE America Act is squeezing the Senate calendar for the CLARITY Act, despite extensive crypto lobbying and campaign spending.

News - A temporary U.S. central bank digital currency ban is poised to take effect through an unrelated housing bill, even though Trump has refused to sign it. Under the Constitution, the legislation becomes law after the 10-day window closes unless he issues a formal veto, with the restriction running through the end of 2030.

One crypto victory needs no final signature - The provision blocks the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar, a policy supported by crypto and privacy advocates concerned about government surveillance and competition with private stablecoins. The Fed had repeatedly said it would not launch a CBDC without congressional authorization, making the ban more politically significant than operationally disruptive.

The same standoff raises CLARITY’s cost - Trump tied his refusal to sign the housing bill to the Senate’s failure to advance the SAVE America Act. That pressure forces the CLARITY Act to compete for limited floor time before the August recess. The bill still lacks a scheduled Senate vote, while ethics provisions and developer protections under Section 604 remain unresolved.

Money built influence, not certainty - Crypto-aligned groups have spent $189 million to shape the 2026 midterms, while Fairshake-backed candidates won 38 of 40 decided races examined in one analysis. Still, only 16 appeared competitive enough for the spending to have plausibly affected the outcome. 

Law enforcement groups have also split over CLARITY, showing that campaign power can create access and momentum, but coalition-building and legislative compromise remain essential to whether a bill advances.

Japan’s policy split gives Bitcoin two jobs

Key points:

  • Japan’s push to redirect public pension money into domestic assets, while the Bank of Japan tightens policy, could unsettle global markets and revive yen carry trade risks.

  • Meanwhile, CRYL and Metaplanet-led initiatives are pushing Bitcoin toward a broader role in Japan as collateral for loans and digital credit.

News - Japan is pulling Bitcoin in two directions. Government efforts to increase domestic investment could ripple across global bonds, equities, and crypto, while Japanese firms are launching and studying ways to use BTC to unlock credit without requiring a sale.

The macro risk begins with a possible rotation - Japan wants the world’s largest pension fund and other public pools to hold more local assets as the BOJ raises rates and reduces bond purchases. Even a modest shift away from foreign holdings could create market volatility. A renewed unwind of yen-funded trades could also pressure Bitcoin and other risk assets, as seen after the BOJ’s 2024 rate increase.

Bitcoin’s yen price is already diverging - A stronger yen left BTC/JPY up only 0.68%, compared with a 1.15% gain for a U.S. BTC/USD pair. In the longer term, directing savings toward domestic bonds while inflation remains elevated could strengthen the appeal of limited-supply assets such as Bitcoin and gold.

The domestic story is moving toward collateral - Japanese lender CRYL launched BTC-backed loans of up to 1 billion yen, allowing businesses and individuals to access fiat without selling their holdings. 

Separately, Metaplanet Securities, JPYC, and Progmat are studying Bitcoin-backed digital credit using stablecoin settlement and security tokens. The proposed structure could support around-the-clock settlement and daily interest accrual, but no product has been launched, and no issuance has been decided.

Circle’s bank charter turns trust into leverage

Key points:

  • Circle received final OCC approval to establish Circle National Trust, placing its new trust-bank custody operations under direct federal supervision.

  • The bank will initially serve Circle and its affiliates, while future reserve management and institutional custody could deepen USDC’s regulated financial footprint.

News - Circle’s stock rallied after the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) granted final approval for its national trust bank. Shares rose roughly 14% to 16% in pre-market trading and remained 8.4% higher after the opening bell, while growing stablecoin competition remained in view.

The charter is narrower than a commercial bank - Circle National Trust can provide fiduciary custody services but cannot accept consumer deposits or issue loans like a traditional bank. Its initial scope covers Circle and affiliated companies, although the approved plan leaves room to serve a limited group of institutional clients if demand develops.

USDC gains a federal option, not an instant overhaul - The charter could eventually bring management of USDC’s roughly $73 billion reserve under OCC supervision, but Circle described that as a future capability. For now, the approval strengthens its custody infrastructure and adds a unified federal framework for the trust bank alongside Circle’s wider regulatory footprint.

Regulation is becoming a competitive weapon - Circle’s rally followed weeks of pressure after more than 140 financial and technology firms, including Coinbase, Mastercard, and BlackRock, backed rival stablecoin Open USD. 

Coinbase still praised Circle’s approval despite supporting that challenger. Meanwhile, ARK Invest bought about $13.7 million in Circle shares one day before the rally. The reaction suggests investors see federal supervision as a possible advantage as crypto firms compete for institutional trust, custody business, and stablecoin distribution.

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Crypto scams uncovered

  • Hong Kong is treating login codes as a phishing weak spot: The SFC told licensed crypto platforms and internet brokers to adopt phishing-resistant authentication within 12 months, saying one-time passwords should no longer be used for client login and device binding. 

  • A Telegram staking pitch hid behind stolen influencer trust: A New York man was sentenced in June 2026 after prosecutors said he impersonated popular crypto influencers on Telegram, promoted fake staking and investment opportunities with guaranteed returns, and obtained at least $1.4 million before disappearing with victims’ crypto. 

  • Some crypto scam victims are rescued before they know they are trapped: DOJ said Operation Level Up had notified 8,935 cryptocurrency investment fraud victims as of March 2026, with 77% of them unaware they were being scammed and an estimated $562.7 million saved from further losses.

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Top 3 coins of the day

DeXe (DEXE)

Key points:

  • DEXE extended its 4H breakout near $36 after clearing $34, with $36 as immediate price-discovery resistance and $34-$34.50 as first support.

  • The Madrid Ribbon stayed fully green and stacked below price, while EWO climbed to 15.388 and volume reached 101.03K, confirming aggressive trend momentum.

What you should know:

DEXE’s rally looked like a positioning squeeze turning into price discovery. Spot buyers reportedly dominated for eight straight days, with positive spot delta above 1M tokens, while open interest climbed 18% to $160M and derivatives volume jumped 146% to $210M as shorts were forced to cover. That demand matched the chart, where price pushed from the $28-$29 area into a high near $36. The Madrid Ribbon stayed fully green and layered below price, while EWO expanded to 15.388 and volume reached 101.03K. $36 is the resistance to clear next, while $34-$34.50 is first support and $30-$32 is the broader trend cushion.

Pepe (PEPE)

Key points:

  • PEPE rebounded near $0.00000275 after holding above the Parabolic SAR near $0.00000255, putting $0.0000028-$0.00000285 back in focus.

  • Stochastic RSI jumped to 89.73 and 83.53, while volume reached 2.03T, showing a strong but stretched memecoin bounce.

What you should know:

PEPE’s move read like a sentiment-led rebound chasing meme-sector momentum. Canary Capital’s Spot PEPE ETF S-1 filing kept an institutional-legitimacy hook alive, while PEPE’s reported $96M-$111M in 24-hour turnover supported its high-beta rotation story. On the chart, price recovered from the $0.0000023-$0.0000024 base and pushed near $0.00000275, with Parabolic SAR trailing below at $0.00000255. Stochastic RSI at 89.73 and 83.53 showed buyers had momentum, but the setup was already stretched. Volume reached 2.03T, confirming active participation without looking like a blowoff. $0.0000028-$0.00000285 is the resistance zone to clear, while $0.00000255-$0.0000026 is first support.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

Key points:

  • PUMP slipped near $0.00145 after losing the Madrid Ribbon cluster around $0.00148-$0.00153, turning that area into the first reclaim zone.

  • Stochastic RSI cooled to 44.21 and 61.46, while volume rose to 869.5M, showing active selling behind the latest breakdown.

What you should know:

PUMP’s chart seemed like a supply-overhang trade spilling through support. Ahead of the July 12 unlock, 82.5B PUMP tokens worth roughly $127M-$130M are set to enter circulation for teams and early investors, pushing traders into pre-unlock de-risking. Price lost the Madrid Ribbon cluster around $0.00148-$0.00153 and slid near $0.00145, turning that band into the first reclaim zone. Stochastic RSI cooled to 44.21 and 61.46, showing momentum had weakened without reaching clean exhaustion, while volume rose to 869.5M on the red candle. The pressure also had a fundamentals layer, with reported active user engagement down 80% over the last month. $0.00140-$0.00144 is support, while $0.00160-$0.00165 is upper resistance.

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