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- China–U.S. $13B Bitcoin feud fuels crypto tensions
China–U.S. $13B Bitcoin feud fuels crypto tensions
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Crypto cold war brews as China accuses U.S. of Bitcoin theft
Key points:
China’s CVERC alleged the U.S. executed or co-opted the 2020 LuBian drain and now controls about 127K BTC tied to the incident.
Open-source forensics and DOJ filings point to weak-key wallets, U.S. custody, and a civil forfeiture action, without independent proof naming a state actor for the 2020 exploit.
News - China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center published a technical report alleging the U.S. was behind, or later absorbed, the 2020 theft of roughly 127K BTC (around $13B) from LuBian. The report highlights that the coins sat dormant for nearly four years before large transfers in mid-2024 to wallets later tagged by Arkham as U.S. government controlled.
U.S. prosecutors have filed a civil forfeiture complaint covering about 127,271 BTC and say the assets are already in government custody tied to alleged fraud and laundering connected to Chen Zhi and Prince Group.
Independent researchers attribute the 2020 drain to weak-key wallets generated with low entropy, allowing brute-force sweeps across hundreds of addresses. Those teams, along with TRM, Elliptic, Arkham, and Blockscope, connect the 2020 outflows to the later consolidation and seizure but do not identify who executed the original exploit.
What the forensic record shows - CVE-2023-39910 and MilkSad’s work describe wallet creation flaws that reduce key space and make brute force feasible.
On-chain analysis documents coordinated withdrawals on December 28–29, 2020, long dormancy, and July 2024 consolidations that align with addresses cited in U.S. filings. This evidentiary trail supports weak-key exploitation and later U.S. custody, while attribution of the 2020 actor remains unresolved.
Why it matters - The dispute blends technical failure, criminal enforcement, and geopolitics. Beijing frames LuBian as a victim and alleges state-level hacking. Washington frames the BTC as forfeitable criminal proceeds. The gap centers on who controlled the keys in 2020 and how U.S. authorities later obtained access.
What to watch - Look for additional disclosures in U.S. court filings, further technical indicators tying infrastructure to a specific actor, and any official responses that clarify how the keys were acquired. Market sentiment may react to signals about potential liquidations, although no disposition plan has been announced in the sources provided.
Ethereum eyes $4K as whales accumulate and holders regain confidence
Key points:
Ethereum rebounded above $3,600, lifting most holders back into profit and fueling optimism for a breakout toward $4,000.
Long-term holders slowed their selling while whale accumulation and BitMine’s $12.5B ETH treasury strengthened market confidence.
News - Ethereum’s recovery past $3,600 has put the average holder back in profit, according to Glassnode data showing ETH now trading above its active realized price of $3,545.
Analysts note that this shift historically signals easing sell pressure as previously underwater wallets turn profitable and choose to hold. Resistance remains near $3,800, where cost-basis clusters could trigger short-term profit-taking.
At the same time, on-chain data shows Ethereum’s long-term holders (LTHs) reducing their selling activity, marking the lowest volume in a month. Weighted sentiment has hit a two-and-a-half-month high, according to Santiment, suggesting renewed confidence among investors.
Traders view a break above $3,607 as key to target $3,802 and potentially $3,950, while failure could push prices back below $3,489.
Institutional accumulation and whale support - BitMine Immersion Technologies expanded its ETH holdings by 110,288 coins last week, bringing its treasury to 3.5 million ETH worth roughly $12.5 billion. The firm aims to control 5% of total supply, reinforcing Wall Street’s growing exposure to tokenized assets.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows wallets holding 10,000–100,000 ETH increased balances by 52% since April, indicating whale-level accumulation even as retail traders trimmed positions.
What’s next - Analysts from MEXC Research and Fisher8 Capital said sustained whale activity and easing macro risks could form a local bottom near $3,200 ahead of December’s Fusaka upgrade, which will boost Layer 2 scalability and reduce transaction costs.
If ETH holds above $3,500 and flips resistance near $3,800 into support, the path toward a $4,000 retest remains open.
Argentina freezes assets after Javier Milei’s selfie triggers crypto probe
Key points:
An Argentine federal court ordered a sweeping asset freeze against Libra token promoter Hayden Davis and two intermediaries, extending the $250M fraud probe across Buenos Aires and New York.
Investigators are probing $507,500 in crypto transfers made minutes after President Javier Milei’s selfie with Davis, raising questions about potential indirect payments to public officials.
News - Argentina’s judiciary has intensified its investigation into the collapsed Libra token scheme by freezing the assets of U.S. promoter Hayden Davis, Argentine operator Orlando Mellino, and Colombian trader Favio Rodríguez Blanco.
Judge Marcelo Martínez de Giorgi’s order covers bank accounts, digital wallets, and property holdings to prevent the dissipation of assets tied to an estimated $100–$120 million fraud. The measure follows a report from Argentina’s Secretariat for Financial Investigation and the General Directorate of Asset Confiscation.
The investigation found that Davis sent $507,500 through Bitget within 42 minutes of President Javier Milei’s January selfie with him, in which Milei described Davis as a blockchain and AI adviser.
Prosecutors say the timing may indicate “indirect payments to public officials,” though no evidence shows the funds reached Milei. Intermediaries allegedly moved cash through bank vaults and local entrepreneurs shortly after Libra’s collapse.
Political fallout and cross-border ties - The Libra token skyrocketed to a $4.5B valuation in February after Milei’s post before crashing over 90%, wiping out about $250M from investors.
U.S. and Argentine courts are now coordinating their probes, with Interpol issuing a red notice for Davis. Prosecutors also linked Davis’s operations to Benjamin Chow and the now-defunct Meteora exchange, both named in a U.S. RICO lawsuit.
Why it matters - The Libra case underscores how celebrity-linked memecoins can spiral into global fraud probes. Each new court order renews scrutiny of Milei’s crypto ties, even as he remains uncharged. For regulators, it signals a growing need for cross-border oversight of politically entangled token launches.
Bitcoin’s ‘quantum safe’ debate heats up as Willy Woo urges SegWit move
Key points:
Willy Woo told holders to shift coins from Taproot “bc1p” addresses to SegWit or legacy formats to reduce public key exposure until post-quantum upgrades arrive.
Developers and analysts are split on the plan’s value and timeline, with critiques that spending still reveals keys and that a network upgrade is the real fix.
News - On-chain analyst Willy Woo published a “dummies guide” urging Bitcoin users to move funds off Taproot addresses that embed public keys, and into SegWit “bc1q” or legacy formats where keys are masked behind hashes until spent. Woo frames this as an interim safety step while the ecosystem works toward post-quantum cryptography.
Former Bitcoin Core developer Jonas Schnelli agreed older formats buy “years of protection” for dormant UTXOs, yet cautioned that once a transaction is broadcast the public key becomes visible and is theoretically crackable before confirmation.
Criticism followed. Charles Edwards argued the approach is not truly quantum safe and called for a protocol-level upgrade on an accelerated schedule. Others downplayed near-term risk: Michael Saylor said the threat window is likely 10 to 20 years and warned that phishing on “quantum panic” is the more immediate danger.
Some research places the earliest risk sooner, with “Doomsday Clock” estimates suggesting capable machines within a couple of years, though that methodology is disputed.
What upgrades are on the table - Open BTC contributor Anakun pointed to BIP-360, which specifies ML-DSA signatures aligned with NIST’s 2024 post-quantum selections, and highlighted a phased migration proposal attributed to Jameson Lopp that would first halt payments to legacy formats, then later invalidate non-quantum signatures on a block schedule.
Anakun contrasted Bitcoin’s UTXO flexibility with Ethereum and Solana smart contracts that verify ECDSA at the contract layer, leaving older contracts exposed without bespoke fixes.
Why it matters - The split is over operations versus consensus. Woo’s guidance can reduce immediate exposure for idle coins, but spending still reveals keys. Long term, the path points to a network-wide cryptographic upgrade, with timelines ranging from late decade targets to more urgent calls for action.
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More stories from the crypto ecosystem
Interesting facts
Governments eyeing crypto reserves - In 2025, Fidelity Investments reported that more national governments and central banks are preparing to become “significant” investors in Bitcoin, signaling a potential paradigm shift in state-level adoption of digital assets.
Wallets evolving into superapps - Crypto wallets in 2025 are no longer just key stores: they’re morphing into full-stack finance platforms offering swaps, staking, DeFi access and cross-chain tools, making them the central hub of Web3.
Crypto adoption surging in Bolivia amid crisis - After lifting its cryptocurrency ban in June 2024, Bolivia’s digital asset transaction volume jumped more than 530% in the first half of 2025 (from $46.5 m to $294 m) as citizens sought alternatives amid severe currency depreciation.
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Top 3 coins of the day
Aerodrome Finance (AERO)
Key points:
AERO was last seen trading near $1.23, climbing 4.1% over the past 24 hours as it crossed the upper Bollinger Band following a strong rebound from $0.90.
The CMF held positive at +0.10, reflecting steady capital inflows, while trading volume rose alongside price action, hinting at growing market participation.
What you should know:
AERO continued its recovery as buyers drove prices toward the upper Bollinger Band, signaling renewed volatility and momentum. The middle band around $0.97 now serves as an important support level, while the CMF’s positive reading indicates persistent accumulation pressure. Beyond chart dynamics, sentiment improved as the U.S. government funding extension reduced macro uncertainty, lifting risk assets across DeFi. Meanwhile, Aerodrome’s Public Goods Fund buybacks, which locked 1.84 million AERO, strengthened supply-side confidence and reinforced its deflationary token model. Traders are now watching $1.00–$1.05 for potential support and $1.30–$1.33 as the next resistance zone to monitor.
TRON (TRX)
Key points:
TRX was trading at $0.29 during press time, marking a 1% gain in 24 hours as it inched above its 9-day SMA, signaling early signs of trend recovery.
The Stochastic RSI hovered deep in the overbought region near 97, hinting that bullish momentum may be peaking even as volume improved moderately.
What you should know:
TRX extended its recent rebound as buyers pushed prices slightly above the 9-day simple moving average, turning short-term sentiment positive. The SMA’s gentle upward slope suggests momentum could continue if buying pressure holds, though the Stochastic RSI’s overbought reading warns of potential near-term cooling. Beyond technicals, Ledger’s integration of TRON into its hardware wallet suite supported confidence among institutional and retail users, while TRON’s dominance in USDT transactions continues to reinforce its network strength. Investors are now eyeing $0.28 as immediate support and $0.31 as the next resistance zone, levels that could shape the token’s next directional move.
Uniswap (UNI)
Key points:
UNI was last seen trading around $8.69, marking a 7% daily decline as the token cooled off after its sharp midweek rally that briefly tested the $10 mark.
The MA Ribbon remained supportive despite the pullback, while the DMI reflected a still-strong bullish trend with an ADX near 38, suggesting momentum is holding even as volatility eases.
What you should know:
UNI’s retracement followed an overheated run that had pushed prices well above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The coin continued to trade within a strong trend structure, with the MA Ribbon indicating resilience around $8.40–$8.50 support. The DMI showed the +DI still dominant over the -DI, confirming that buyers retained an upper hand despite the day’s red candle. Setting aside technicals, buying sentiment was underpinned by Uniswap’s “Fee Switch” proposal, which introduced deflationary tokenomics through buy-and-burn mechanisms, and whale activity that fueled recent volatility. Traders are now watching $8.40–$8.50 as near-term support and $9.30–$9.50 as immediate resistance to gauge UNI’s next move.
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