Crypto fear index hits overdrive

November 21, 2025

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Bitcoin slides as leverage unwinds and fear spikes across markets

Key points:

  • Bitcoin’s retreat toward the low $80,000 range followed a wave of risk-off deleveraging and liquidation clusters that swept nearly every major crypto asset.

  • A flash crash on Hyperliquid and close to $2 billion in liquidations deepened market panic as broader financial markets also suffered sharp volatility.

News - Bitcoin’s latest decline is being shaped by a combination of heavy leverage, evaporating sentiment and widening volatility across global markets. 

Binance CEO Richard Teng argued during a media roundtable that Bitcoin’s recent slide mirrors a broader shift toward risk aversion, noting that most major asset classes are cycling through similar turbulence. He attributed the pullback to investors cutting exposure and unwinding leveraged positions amid a clear risk-off backdrop.

The stress was apparent across trading platforms. On Hyperliquid, Bitcoin plunged from $83,307 to $80,255 in under a minute before bouncing back, triggering five large liquidations and a single wipeout worth $36.78 million. Other centralized exchanges saw milder drops, though the market-wide impact remained severe.

Across the last 24 hours, nearly $2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, with Bitcoin alone accounting for roughly half of that amount. 

More than 390,000 traders were affected as long positions made up the bulk of the losses. Ethereum, Solana, XRP and other large-cap assets followed Bitcoin lower, with majors retracing 20 to 35% from their November highs.

Sentiment freefall - The Crypto Fear and Greed Index slid to 11, marking its lowest point since late 2022. Heavy ETF outflows, collapsing open interest, and a sharp downturn in global stocks added to the pressure, pulling market confidence to its weakest level this year.

Long-term bulls see a reset - Veteran trader Peter Brandt said the recent drop is a healthy reset rather than a sign of structural weakness. He noted that similar pullbacks have historically paved the way for stronger upside, describing the current downturn as the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin. 

Brandt expects the next major bull cycle to take Bitcoin toward $200,000, but not before Q3 2029.

Macro pressures intensify - The broader market backdrop remained unsupportive. A steep risk-off turn in equities, widening credit spreads, and lost confidence in near-term rate cuts contributed to a synchronized selloff across risk assets, reinforcing the volatility in crypto.

Crypto firms press Trump for fast-track rules

Key points:

  • A coalition of about 65 to 66 crypto organizations has urged President Donald Trump to use executive authority to quickly clarify U.S. digital asset rules, citing slow progress in Congress.

  • The group is pushing for immediate fixes on staking and mining taxes, DeFi developer protections, self custody rights, and clearer financial crime guidance.

News - A broad industry coalition led by the Solana Policy Institute has sent a letter to President Trump calling for swift executive action on crypto regulation. 

Signed by more than 65 firms and policy groups, the letter argues that federal agencies can issue meaningful guidance right away without waiting for a full market structure bill. The coalition says regulatory clarity, not deregulation, is the key to keeping the U.S. competitive as other regions move faster on digital asset frameworks.

The letter highlights recent wins from the Trump administration, including the nullification of the IRS Broker Rule and the passage of the GENIUS Act for stablecoins. Still, signatories say more urgent steps are needed to reduce uncertainty around enforcement, taxation, and DeFi innovation.

What firms want fixed first - On tax policy, the coalition asks the Treasury and the IRS to treat staking and mining rewards as self-created property, taxable only when sold or converted. It also calls for a de minimis exemption of up to $600 for everyday crypto payments, and requests confirmation that bridging and wrapping tokens are not taxable events. These priorities echo proposals already introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis.

Developer and DeFi protections - The coalition also urges the Justice Department to dismiss charges against Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm, arguing that publishing open source code should not be treated as a financial crime. The request follows recent prison sentences for Samourai Wallet developers and comes ahead of Storm’s December 18 sentencing. 

Beyond that, the group wants interim safe harbors from the SEC and CFTC to shield permissionless DeFi developers during ongoing rulemaking, along with updated FinCEN guidance confirming the Bank Secrecy Act does not apply to non-custodial software.

Crypto prediction markets enter hyper-growth as Polymarket outpaces TradFi rivals

Key points:

  • Crypto-native Polymarket and CFTC-regulated Kalshi are now driving one of 2025’s biggest on-chain adoption waves, with valuations soaring into the tens of billions.

  • Weekly trading volumes across blockchain prediction markets are setting new records as new entrants like Coinbase and Truth Social prepare to join the sector.

News - Crypto prediction markets have erupted into one of this year’s most explosive growth stories as Polymarket and Kalshi race ahead with billion-dollar valuations and unprecedented on-chain activity. 

Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction venue, is reportedly in talks to raise funding at a valuation between $12 billion and $15 billion, more than ten times its level just four months ago. The platform recently recorded over $2 billion in weekly volume and has re-entered the U.S. market after securing approval to operate domestically again.

Kalshi, meanwhile, has become a key bridge between crypto, event-based trading and traditional finance. The CFTC-regulated exchange closed a $1 billion round that lifted its valuation to $11 billion, with cumulative trading volume surpassing $17 billion and access now extended to more than 140 countries. 

Both platforms have helped push total notional prediction market volume to record highs of $3.3 billion in early November.

How prediction markets boost crypto adoption - On-chain prediction markets are rapidly turning into one of crypto’s strongest consumer funnels. Platforms like Polymarket are onboarding users who may not realize they are interacting with blockchain infrastructure, a design choice that mirrors successful Web3 adoption paths seen in gaming and payments. 

Sector-wide data shows more than 30 million prediction contracts generated in Q3 2025, a clear sign of growing mainstream participation.

A new wave of competition - Coinbase is developing its own Polymarket-style interface, according to uncovered internal screenshots, while Trump Media plans to introduce a prediction market inside Truth Social. New decentralized players like Opinion are already challenging incumbents on volume. 

With regulated and crypto-native models expanding in parallel, prediction markets are emerging as a major on-chain entry point for new users.

JPMorgan flags index risk for Strategy as Bitcoin slide deepens

Key points:

  • JPMorgan warned that Strategy could face about $2.8 billion in passive outflows if MSCI removes it from key equity indices, with total index-linked selling risk rising to roughly $11.6 billion if others follow.

  • The threat comes as Strategy’s stock has fallen sharply alongside Bitcoin, compressing its premium to net asset value and raising questions about how BTC-heavy public firms should be classified.

News - Strategy is facing a fresh wave of pressure after JPMorgan flagged the company’s growing risk of being excluded from major equity benchmarks. 

MSCI is consulting on whether to remove firms with digital assets making up 50% or more of total assets, a rule that would likely capture Strategy given its Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet. A final MSCI decision is due on January 15, 2026, and JPMorgan estimates that exclusion from MSCI alone could trigger about $2.8 billion in passive fund outflows. 

If other index providers such as the Nasdaq 100 or broader benchmark families take similar steps, the bank sees another $8.8 billion at risk.

The concern is landing at an ugly moment for the stock. Strategy is down about 68% from its $543 high set a year ago, tracking Bitcoin’s drop from October’s record near $126,000 to lows around $81,000. 

The company’s valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings has also slid toward parity, weakening the capital-raise flywheel that has powered its accumulation playbook.

Why index access matters - Passive index inclusion has been a major pipeline for institutional capital into Strategy. 

JPMorgan noted that about $9 billion of Strategy’s market cap sits in index-tracking vehicles. Losing that embedded demand could hurt liquidity, push the stock closer to being valued purely as a Bitcoin holding vehicle, and make future equity or debt raises more difficult.

Still buying through the drawdown - Despite the warnings and the market downturn, Strategy kept accumulating Bitcoin. The firm added 8,178 BTC worth about $835 million recently, lifting its average cost to roughly $74,430 per coin. 

Executive chair Michael Saylor has dismissed talk of selling and reiterated that the company is built to withstand deep drawdowns, framing volatility as part of the long game.

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Crypto scams uncovered

  • “Free NFT airdrops” are still emptying wallets in 2025 - The FBI has warned that scammers are sending unsolicited NFT airdrops that link to fake sites, tricking users into signing malicious approvals that drain their wallets in seconds.

  • Scam compounds just lost their internet lifeline - US authorities secured seizure warrants to disable Starlink terminals used at Myanmar scam centers, saying the satellite internet gear was a key enabler for crypto “pig butchering” and laundering operations targeting Americans.

  • Crypto ATMs are becoming crime’s favorite cash-out pipe - Federal prosecutors indicted the founder of a US crypto ATM firm for allegedly laundering at least $10M in wire fraud and drug proceeds through kiosks, a crackdown that comes as ATM scams keep spiking nationwide.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Zcash (ZEC)

Key points:

  • ZEC traded at $676 at press time after gaining 3.17% in the last session, extending its strong multi-week climb.

  • The Supertrend line stayed firmly below the latest candles while DMI kept the +DI above the -DI, showing buyers still had the upper hand.

What you should know:

Zcash continued its upward stretch in the latest session as the price pushed higher from its recent consolidation, keeping its broader rally intact. The Supertrend band stayed beneath the candles, indicating that upward bias remained active on the daily chart. Meanwhile, the DMI preserved a positive structure, with the +DI line holding above the -DI even as the ADX softened slightly. This suggested that bullish momentum persisted, although its strength had cooled compared to early November. Volume also rose marginally compared to the previous day, hinting at renewed participation from buyers after a brief slowdown. A recent wave of institutional accumulation and ongoing halving expectations helped sustain interest in ZEC despite volatility across the broader market. For traders, the region near $690 stands as the next resistance zone to monitor, while a slip toward the $640–$650 band could expose ZEC to short-term pullbacks.

OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMP)

Key points:

  • TRUMP changed hands at $6.31 at press time after sliding 5.25% over the past day, extending the pullback seen across mid-cap memecoins.

  • The 9-day SMA continued to slope downward while the RSI hovered near 40, reflecting ongoing weakness and limited buyer follow-through.

What you should know:

TRUMP spent the last session drifting lower as sellers retained control, dragging the price further beneath its short-term trendline. The 9-day SMA kept leaning over the latest candles, a signal that momentum stayed tilted to the downside. Meanwhile, the RSI settled near the 40 mark, showing that bearish pressure persisted without yet pushing conditions into deep oversold territory. Volume also remained muted compared to last week’s spikes, underscoring hesitation among new buyers following the recent unraveling of political token sentiment. Ongoing concerns around token unlocks and lawsuit-driven speculation have heightened caution, even as broader market volatility continues to influence short-term flows. For now, traders will watch whether TRUMP can stabilize above the $6 zone, which remains an important psychological level. Any recovery attempt needs stronger volume to challenge overhead resistance near $6.90–$7.00, where the 9-day SMA currently sits.

AIOZ Network (AIOZ)

Key points:

  • AIOZ was last seen trading near $0.113, slipping 7.08% over the last session as sellers kept control of the short-term trend.

  • The Parabolic SAR stayed positioned above the latest candles, while the RSI hovered around 30, signaling persistent downside pressure despite oversold territory.

What you should know:

AIOZ extended its decline in the latest session as the price moved deeper into its downtrend, with the Parabolic SAR continuing to trail above each candle and reinforcing bearish momentum. The RSI lingered close to the oversold mark, indicating that sellers had kept the upper hand without triggering a decisive rebound attempt. Volume held relatively steady compared to recent days, showing no strong pickup in dip-buying interest. Broader market weakness also played a role, adding pressure across DePIN-linked tokens and weighing on sentiment around AIOZ. As of now, traders will be watching whether the price can stabilize above the $0.11 region, while a sustained recovery would require stronger volume alongside a shift in SAR positioning.

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