Crypto holds firm as tensions rise

June 23, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

$1.2B flows into crypto despite U.S.–Iran tensions, whale bets soar

Key points:

  • Digital asset funds saw $1.24 billion in inflows last week, marking 10 straight weeks of gains led by Bitcoin and Ethereum.

  • Institutional demand remained strong even as U.S. airstrikes on Iran triggered market volatility and spurred aggressive whale trading.

News - Digital asset investment products recorded $1.24 billion in net inflows last week, according to CoinShares, cementing the 10th consecutive week of positive flows. Bitcoin claimed the lion’s share with $1.1 billion, while Ethereum posted its ninth straight week of inflows, adding $124 million.

The momentum persisted despite growing geopolitical tensions. U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites over the weekend, part of “Operation Midnight Hammer,” prompted market-wide turbulence and a short-lived drop in Bitcoin below $100K. Notably, even as prices dipped, short-Bitcoin products saw only $1.4 million in outflows, suggesting limited bearish conviction.

Whales go bold amid chaos - Ethereum whales shrugged off macro fears, opening over $100 million in long positions, including one $101M leveraged bet at 25x. Others withdrew millions in ETH from exchanges, signaling potential accumulation. Meanwhile, top traders like Gambler 0x51d9 and Abraxas Capital reaped millions in profits shorting major tokens using high leverage, despite widespread liquidations earlier in the week.

Regional trends and ETF signals - U.S. investors dominated global inflows at $1.25 billion, while Hong Kong and Switzerland saw outflows. BlackRock alone drew $1.3 billion in ETF inflows, pushing its BTC exposure past 3% of total supply. In contrast, ARK and Fidelity saw net outflows.

Sentiment swings but structure holds - Though the Crypto Fear & Greed Index briefly dipped to “Fear,” overall market behavior reflected continued institutional confidence. Year-to-date inflows now stand at $15.1 billion, a historic high.

Bitcoin’s volatility falls, but corporate treasury FOMO surges

Key points:

  • Bitcoin’s 60-day volatility fell below S&P 500 levels, even amid Iran–Israel tensions and a weekend price drop.

  • Long-term holder supply hit a record 14.53M BTC, while public firms now control nearly 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

News - Bitcoin has entered a new phase of market maturity as its 60-day realized volatility dropped to 27%, below the S&P 500 (~30%) and Nasdaq 100 (~35%), despite geopolitical shockwaves from the U.S.–Iran conflict. This is a stark contrast to early 2022, when Bitcoin’s volatility spiked to 65% during the Russia–Ukraine war.

Alongside this newfound price stability, long-term holders now control 14.53 million BTC, or nearly 70% of the total supply. Data from Glassnode and Bitwise’s André Dragosch suggests that the shrinking circulating supply, paired with sustained institutional demand, is helping anchor Bitcoin’s trajectory above $100K.

Corporate treasury craze heats up - Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, called the ongoing Bitcoin accumulation trend the “new altseason for speculators,” urging traders to dump altcoins and pivot to BTC-holding firms. At least 240 public companies now hold Bitcoin, up from 124 in early June, accounting for 3.96% of all BTC.

Among the notable additions:

  • Metaplanet added 1,111 BTC, inching closer to Tesla’s holdings of 11,509 BTC.

  • Cardone Capital announced a $100M BTC buy, with plans to add 3,000 more coins.

  • Strategy (Michael Saylor’s firm) acquired another 245 BTC despite a weekend price dip.

  • Sequans raised $384M for a BTC treasury plan, joining the swelling list of corporate adopters.

Why it matters - This wave of institutional buys, despite volatility and price dips, signals strong conviction in Bitcoin as a macro hedge and premier reserve asset. Analysts like Arthur Hayes expect this long-term confidence, combined with ETF inflows and fiscal stimulus, to drive BTC above $150K by 2025.

OKX eyes U.S. IPO after regulatory pivot

Key points:

  • OKX is considering a U.S. IPO following its April relaunch, boosting its OKB token by over 5%.

  • The move comes amid a wider crypto IPO wave, fueled by Circle’s NYSE debut and favorable U.S. regulations.

News - Crypto exchange OKX is weighing an initial public offering (IPO) in the United States, signaling growing confidence in its U.S. operations just months after a major regulatory settlement. Chief Marketing Officer Haider Rafique confirmed in an interview that a U.S. listing is firmly on the table, stating, “We will absolutely consider an IPO in the future… likely in the U.S.”

The report triggered a 5.39% surge in OKX’s native token OKB, which rose to $55.11 before retracing slightly. The token's rally stood out against a broader market slump, highlighting investor optimism around OKX’s U.S. expansion.

OKX reentered the U.S. in April after settling a $504 million penalty with the Department of Justice for operating without a money transmitter license. Since then, it has reopened centralized exchange and wallet services, set up headquarters in San Jose, and appointed former Barclays exec Roshan Robert as U.S. CEO.

IPO buzz meets regulatory momentum - OKX joins a growing list of crypto firms exploring public listings, inspired by Circle’s blockbuster NYSE debut earlier this month. Circle’s stock (CRCL) surged nearly 250% post-IPO, while other players like Gemini, Bullish, and FalconX are also pursuing U.S. listings amid friendlier regulations.

OKX’s compliance push goes beyond U.S. borders too. The exchange recently aligned with Europe’s MiCA framework and overhauled KYC protocols as part of its global legitimacy drive.

Asian hurdles and U.S. opportunity - Despite its U.S. progress, OKX still faces regulatory headwinds elsewhere. Thailand’s SEC plans to block the exchange along with four others. Yet, its pivot toward IPO readiness underscores a strategic shift: regulatory compliance as a pathway to institutional legitimacy and investor trust.

Coinbase surges ahead: Benchmark boost, EU license, and CLARITY Act fuel growth

Key points:

  • Benchmark raised Coinbase’s price target to $421, citing regulatory clarity and product expansion as key drivers.

  • COIN stock surged over 23% last week after securing a MiCA license and riding optimism around U.S. crypto legislation.

News - Coinbase (COIN) is once again commanding the crypto spotlight. After a 23% surge last week, Benchmark upgraded its price target from $301 to $421, reaffirming a Buy rating and calling it a “transformational year” for the exchange. The momentum follows a series of bullish headlines — from Coinbase securing a MiCA license in Luxembourg to its growing influence in U.S. regulatory conversations.

Benchmark’s analyst Mark Palmer highlighted the significance of the CLARITY Act, a proposed framework for digital asset regulation in the U.S. If passed, it could catalyze institutional adoption and boost Coinbase’s staking and infrastructure services. The firm’s new valuation is based on 35x its estimated FY2026 EPS of $12.03, with the comparison drawn to Robinhood’s 47.1x multiple.

Europe expansion, Shopify tie-in, and payments push - Coinbase’s MiCA license, obtained via Luxembourg, opens doors to all 27 EU member states — a strategic leap that consolidates its earlier licenses in France, Germany, Ireland, and others. It also recently rolled out Coinbase Payments in partnership with Shopify, letting merchants accept global USDC payments with faster settlement and lower fees.

Crypto stocks shine amid macro volatility - While broader crypto markets stumbled due to Middle East tensions, Coinbase’s stock held firm alongside Circle and Strategy (MSTR). Analysts say this resilience signals growing investor confidence in crypto equities, especially those with regulatory tailwinds and strong infrastructure plays.

Did you know?

  • Bitcoin Pizza Day — 10,000 BTC bought two pizzas in 2010: On May 22, 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz made the first-ever commercial Bitcoin transaction, spending 10,000 BTC on two Papa John’s pizzas, today worth over $1 billion.

  • Rare Bitcoin satoshis become collectibles: Since the introduction of Bitcoin Ordinals in January 2023, unique satoshis (tiny units of Bitcoin) have been treated like digital trading cards, with collectors hunting rare serial-numbered sats using specialized tools.

  • Over 37 million unique cryptocurrencies exist: As of June 2025, more than 37 million distinct cryptocurrencies have been created, up from fewer than 500 in 2014, with projections reaching 100 million by year’s end.

Top 3 coins of the day

Movement (MOVE)

Key points:

  • At press time, MOVE was trading at $0.15, up by 28.91% over the past 24 hours.

  • The price closed above its 9-day SMA ($0.13), while the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) remained deeply negative at -14.75, hinting at lingering bearish pressure.

What you should know:

MOVE surprised the market with a near 29% intraday jump, breaking a persistent downtrend that had dominated since mid-March. The rally was triggered by a technical breakout from a four-month downtrend, confirmed by a 401% surge in 24-hour trading volume to over $200 million. Adding fuel to the momentum were bullish social media narratives and over 25% in short liquidations, which likely forced bears to exit, intensifying the price spike. Despite the rebound, the Elliott Wave Oscillator still printed red bars with no bullish divergence, implying that bearish momentum hasn’t fully reversed. MOVE has faced consistent lower highs and lower lows for months, and while this breakout may mark an inflection point, risks remain. Traders should watch for sustained support above $0.13 and a clean break past $0.17. However, concentrated token supply (90%) and unresolved governance concerns stemming from recent scandals still cloud MOVE’s long-term outlook.

Kaspa (KAS)

Key points:

  • At press time, KAS was trading at $0.065, reflecting a 2.37% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The price hovered near the lower Bollinger Band, while the CMF remained negative at -0.03, reflecting sustained capital outflows.

What you should know:

KAS struggled to recover above $0.07 after a multi-week downtrend that began in early May. Despite a minor 2.3% uptick, the token continued to face pressure near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating persistent bearish volatility. The price briefly dipped below $0.06 before rebounding, but failed to test the midline resistance around $0.077. Volume activity was relatively muted compared to May’s peaks, suggesting a lack of strong buying conviction. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remained in negative territory at -0.03, confirming that capital outflows dominated despite the slight price recovery. The short-term bounce followed renewed retail attention driven by positive coverage of Kaspa’s GHOSTDAG protocol and strong miner support, which helped stabilize sentiment despite lingering sell pressure. While this relief rally may offer temporary support, a sustained move above $0.077 is still needed to shift the overall bearish trend.

Kaia (KAIA)

Key points:

  • At press time, KAIA was trading at $0.18, down 1.01% over the last 24 hours.

  • The RSI hovered near the overbought threshold at 68.27, while the Supertrend remained in bullish territory following a recent 'Buy' signal.

What you should know:

KAIA extended its explosive June rally after flipping its Supertrend to a bullish signal earlier this month. The price surged from under $0.11 to nearly $0.21 in less than two weeks before facing minor rejection. Despite the brief dip, the Supertrend indicator continued to flash green, signaling persistent bullish momentum. Volume soared significantly during the initial leg of the rally, pointing to strong interest from traders chasing the breakout. However, the momentum cooled slightly in recent sessions, with a mild decline in daily volume. The RSI climbed to 68.27, approaching overbought conditions, which often precede short-term corrections. While this doesn’t invalidate the broader uptrend, it suggests that bulls may slow down unless a fresh catalyst emerges. Kaia’s recent listing of Tether (USDT), plans for a South Korean won stablecoin, and Japan Blockchain Association membership have also boosted social sentiment and fueled ecosystem growth. If buyers manage to sustain pressure above the $0.17 zone, KAIA could retest the recent high near $0.21. A breakdown below the Supertrend baseline (~$0.15) might shift sentiment and trigger profit-taking.

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