Crypto trifecta hits: Fed, inflation, conflict

March 18, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Fed jitters, hot PPI, and Iran conflict jolt Bitcoin

Key points:

  • Bitcoin slipped toward $72K after Iran-linked escalation and hotter-than-expected U.S. producer inflation rattled risk sentiment.

  • With the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady, traders are watching Powell’s tone for clues on inflation, oil, and the path of cuts.

News - Bitcoin pulled back sharply after trading near $74K, with the sell-off accelerating as markets absorbed reports tied to Iran’s energy infrastructure and a stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI print. The move came just hours before the Federal Reserve’s March policy decision, turning attention toward how policymakers interpret rising oil prices and fresh inflation pressure.

The February PPI report rose 0.7% month-over-month versus expectations of 0.3%, adding to concerns that inflation may remain sticky even before the full market impact of higher energy prices is felt. That weighed on broader crypto sentiment, with Ether, Solana, and XRP also moving lower after Bitcoin’s retreat from levels near $76K earlier in the week.

Powell’s tone now matters more than the hold - Markets are overwhelmingly pricing in no rate change in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. That leaves the dot plot, economic projections, and Powell’s press conference as the main volatility triggers. Analysts say the jump in oil prices has made the case for rate cuts harder to defend, keeping the macro backdrop less supportive for crypto.

Rally strength meets cycle caution - Bitcoin’s latest run also comes after a rare multi-day winning streak, a pattern that has historically produced mixed outcomes. While such momentum has sometimes led to further gains, past cycles show it can also fade quickly during broader contraction phases. With resistance near $76K still intact and support in the low-$70K zone back in focus, traders are bracing for sharp swings.

Crypto regulation splits: Senate negotiates, SEC acts

Key points:

  • U.S. lawmakers signal fresh progress on a stalled crypto market structure bill amid negotiations over stablecoin yield payments.

  • At the same time, joint SEC-CFTC guidance declaring most crypto assets non-securities is reshaping the urgency of legislative action.

News - Momentum may be returning to long-delayed U.S. crypto legislation as Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott said lawmakers could soon review new draft language on the bill’s most disputed provision. Talks have centered on whether platforms should be allowed to offer yield on stablecoins, an issue that has divided banking groups and crypto industry advocates.

The Senate effort follows the House’s passage of the CLARITY Act last year. Negotiations are also continuing on other aspects of the framework, including ethics standards, anti-money-laundering measures and oversight of decentralized finance. Scott said recent discussions have helped move several sticking points closer to resolution.

Regulators move ahead with new framework - While Congress debates the details, U.S. regulators have already taken a major step by issuing joint interpretive guidance on digital assets. The SEC and CFTC framework classifies most crypto tokens outside securities law and introduces a taxonomy covering digital commodities, collectibles, tools, stablecoins, and digital securities.

The move has sparked debate about whether legislation remains essential. Some market participants argue regulators have delivered much of the clarity the bill aimed to provide. Others caution that guidance alone cannot create binding compliance pathways or long-term policy certainty.

Industry calls for formal rulemaking - Policy group Coin Center has urged regulators to focus on comprehensive rulemaking rather than case-by-case relief, warning that selective decisions can lead to fragmented oversight.

With negotiations continuing in Congress and regulators reshaping oversight in parallel, the direction of U.S. crypto policy remains in flux.

UK lawmakers push crypto donation ban over election fears

Key points:

  • A cross-party UK committee has urged an immediate moratorium on crypto political donations, citing risks to public trust and election integrity.

  • The debate has intensified as experts warn both about foreign interference risks and unintended cybersecurity consequences of tighter rules.

News - UK lawmakers are calling for a temporary halt on cryptocurrency donations to political parties, arguing that existing safeguards are insufficient to protect the political finance system. A parliamentary report warned that crypto’s speed and privacy features can make it harder to trace funding sources, raising concerns about foreign influence ahead of the next general election.

The Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy recommended embedding the moratorium into the Representation of the People Bill until clearer statutory guidance is issued. Proposals also include lowering disclosure thresholds for donations and establishing a Political Finance Enforcement Unit to strengthen oversight.

Crypto donations remain legal under current rules, and Reform UK became one of the first major political parties in the UK to accept crypto donations. The issue has drawn renewed attention after large contributions from crypto investors and growing political scrutiny over transparency in funding.

Risks of interference vs transparency debate - Lawmakers argue that tools such as mixers, privacy coins, and automated micro-donation strategies could allow large transfers to be split into smaller amounts below reporting thresholds. At the same time, some industry voices say regulated platforms can still provide traceability and compliance safeguards.

Ban could create new vulnerabilities - Cybersecurity experts have also cautioned that forcing parties to centralize donor data could introduce fresh risks. Critics warn that stricter controls may push crypto funding activity offshore rather than eliminate underlying concerns.

With political pressure building and regulatory proposals advancing, the future of crypto’s role in UK election financing is increasingly uncertain.

Lazarus-linked hack hits Bitrefill, exposes 18,500 records

Key points:

  • Crypto payments platform Bitrefill said a March 1 cyberattack tied to North Korea-linked hacking groups compromised hot wallets and exposed thousands of purchase records.

  • The company has restored most operations and will absorb financial losses while tightening internal security controls.

News - Crypto gift card and payments provider Bitrefill disclosed details of a cybersecurity breach that escalated from a compromised employee laptop into wider access to parts of its infrastructure. The company said attackers used malware and reused digital infrastructure associated with North Korea-linked Lazarus and Bluenoroff groups to drain funds from certain hot wallets and probe internal systems.

The incident affected roughly 18,500 purchase records containing limited customer information such as email addresses, crypto payment addresses, and IP-related metadata. Around 1,000 of those records included encrypted name data that Bitrefill is treating as potentially exposed. The firm said it detected unusual supplier purchasing activity before taking systems offline to contain the attack.

Financial motive and limited data exposure - According to Bitrefill, there is no evidence that attackers extracted its entire database. Logs suggested targeted queries focused on cryptocurrency holdings and gift card inventory, reinforcing the view that the primary objective was financial gain. Affected users were notified directly, and the company advised vigilance against suspicious communications.

Security overhaul after major breach - Most services including payments, stock, and customer accounts have since returned to normal, with sales volumes recovering. Bitrefill said it will cover losses from operational capital and is working with law enforcement, security researchers, and incident response teams to strengthen defenses. Measures include tighter access controls, enhanced monitoring systems, and broader penetration-testing efforts.

Did you know?

  • Ethereum staking withdrawals only became possible in 2023: The Shapella upgrade in April 2023 enabled validators to finally withdraw staked ETH, ending a lock-up period that had lasted since the Beacon Chain launch in 2020.

  • Crypto exchange reserves have been trending lower since 2020: On-chain data shows a multi-year decline in Bitcoin balances held on centralized exchanges, suggesting growing long-term holding behavior among investors.

  • A U.S. court once ruled that Bitcoin qualifies as “money”: In 2013, a federal judge in Texas stated that Bitcoin could be treated as a form of currency under securities law, marking one of the earliest legal recognitions of crypto in the United States.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Zcash (ZEC)

Key points:

  • Buying momentum lifted ZEC toward $283, with the latest candle briefly closing above the upper Bollinger Band after a sharp rebound from the $210 zone.

  • The Squeeze Momentum bars flipped positive alongside a pickup in trading volume, pointing to renewed upside conviction in the short term.

What you should know:

After spending several weeks drifting lower, ZEC staged a strong upside push and reclaimed the $260 region, signaling a shift in near-term sentiment. The move was accompanied by rising volume and expanding volatility, with price pressing against the upper Bollinger Band near $285, a level that may act as an immediate reaction zone.

Recent ecosystem developments helped reinforce bullish interest. Confidence improved following reports of a $25M funding round backing the Zcash Open Development Lab, alongside continued growth in shielded transaction adoption. Institutional validation narratives also strengthened after profitability disclosures from ZEC-focused investment firms, while plans by Foundry Digital to introduce a compliant Zcash mining pool further supported long-term infrastructure confidence. 

Going ahead, the mid-band area around $250 remains a key support zone to track, while sustained momentum above $285 could encourage further upside attempts.

Cosmos (ATOM)

Key points:

  • ATOM traded near $2.01 after recovering from recent lows, forming a sequence of higher lows while still facing structural resistance near $2.10.

  • The DMI showed strengthening buying pressure, with the +DI rising above the -DI as volume gradually improved during the latest upswing.

What you should know:

ATOM moved higher after defending the $1.70–$1.75 demand zone, with buyers gradually regaining control through a series of higher lows. The latest advance pushed price toward the $2.05–$2.10 resistance region, an area that has capped recent rallies. Volume expanded during the rebound, indicating improving participation.

Momentum also strengthened as the DMI shifted in favor of bulls, suggesting trend pressure is stabilizing. Fundamentally, sentiment improved following Osmosis governance discussions around OSMO-to-ATOM conversion, renewed optimism around IBC integrations with Solana and Ethereum Layer 2 networks, and continued interest after the February roadmap update focused on network speed improvements. Sustained strength above $2.10 may open room toward $2.30, while $1.85 remains a key support to monitor.

Bonk (BONK)

Key points:

  • BONK traded near $0.0000067 after rebounding from recent lows, with price reclaiming the 9-day SMA during the latest upswing.

  • The Stochastic RSI remained deep in overbought territory, while volume expanded on green candles, reflecting stronger buying participation.

What you should know:

BONK showed signs of stabilization after holding above the $0.0000060 support zone, gradually pushing toward the $0.0000069 resistance level. The recovery followed weeks of lower highs and declining momentum before short-term sentiment improved. Rising volume during upward sessions indicated renewed speculative interest, while the oscillator’s elevated reading highlighted strong but stretched momentum.

Market narratives also supported the move. Optimism increased after regulatory clarity around Solana’s commodity classification, which lifted sentiment across ecosystem tokens. Traders also rotated capital back into memecoins amid a broader risk-on backdrop linked to Bitcoin strength, while ongoing expectations around a community-led trillion-token burn milestone continued to shape bullish positioning.

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