Dogecoin's next move

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Bitcoin miners face pressure as hashrate breaks 18-month uptrend

Key points:

  • Bitcoin's hashrate dipped after a long uptrend, raising capitulation concerns.

  • Data suggested minimal miner selling despite the hashrate drop.

News - Bitcoin's hashrate, a metric reflecting miners’ strength, has fallen after an 18-month uptrend, sparking concerns of miner capitulation.

Well, the true hashrate, currently around 600 exahashes per second (EH/s), is a key indicator of the processing power dedicated to securing the Bitcoin network.

What do analysts think? Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, suggested that this drop signifies potential selling by some miners. However, data reveals a different story. Bitcoin miner outflows to exchanges, which could indicate selling, have actually decreased significantly since May. This contradicts the traditional capitulation narrative.

Bitcoin’s price drop from $71,100 to $66,800 also doesn't correlate with increased miner selling. This suggests other factors might be at play.

So what are those factors? One explanation could be the retirement of older mining rigs. The recent Bitcoin halving has rendered these machines unprofitable. Miners are shutting them down, leading to the hashrate decline. According to Hashrate Index, some ASIC models become unprofitable when electricity costs exceed $0.07 per kilowatt-hour.

It’s interesting to note that this temporary dip in hasrate aligns with predictions made by CoinShares in April. Their report anticipates a hashrate rebound in 2025, followed by a potential 10% drop due to the continued shutdown of unprofitable ASICs. Rising electricity costs can also be considered one of the reasons behind a fall in hashrate.

94% of central banks are exploring a central bank digital currency, BIS survey finds

Key points:

  • Focus is on wholesale CBDCs for interbank transactions in the next six years.

  • China, Nigeria, and the Bahamas are early adopters of CBDCs.

News - The global movement towards central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is accelerating, according to a new survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The survey, published on Friday, revealed a significant increase in central banks exploring the potential of issuing digital versions of their national currencies.

Important details about the survey -

  • Among the 86 central banks participating in the survey, a whopping 94% indicated they are actively researching CBDCs. This marks a sharp rise compared to the previous BIS survey in 2021, where 90% of 81 respondents expressed interest in digital currencies.

  • The survey also sheds light on the type of CBDCs central banks are prioritizing. While both retail and wholesale versions are being considered, the focus appears to be on wholesale CBDCs for the next six years.

  • These digital currencies would be limited to use by banks and financial institutions for interbank transactions. Retail CBDCs, accessible to the general public for everyday transactions, seem to be a longer-term prospect.

What’s more? Interestingly, over half of the central banks considering this option are contemplating limitations on how much CBDC a user can hold, as well as ensuring interoperability with existing financial systems and providing offline functionality.

Additionally, the survey suggests that central banks are leaning towards offering no or minimal interest on retail CBDC holdings.

Market sentiment dampens Dogecoin's short-term prospects

Key points:

  • Dogecoin's price may stay above $0.10 despite a recent 12% decline.

  • On-chain support was observed at $0.11, this level also had good liquidity.

News - Despite a recent price dip, DOGE might find support that prevents it from falling below $0.10 in the coming weeks. This prediction is based on the Global In and Out of Money (GIOM) indicator, which considers the number of addresses holding DOGE at different price points.

The GIOM essentially identifies areas of on-chain support and resistance. A higher concentration of addresses buying DOGE at a specific price suggests a stronger support level, as these holders are unlikely to sell at a loss.

AMBCrypto’s analysis - In DOGE's case, analysis reveals a significant buying zone around $0.11, with roughly 45 billion DOGE purchased at that price. This large number of hodlers could act as a buffer, preventing the price from dropping further.

However, the outlook for significant upward movement appears limited. The GIOM also indicates a resistance level at $0.16, where another 20 billion DOGE were bought. Holders at this price point might be inclined to sell to break even if the price climbs higher, potentially stalling any rally.

Furthermore, Santiment's Mean Coin Age (MCA) metric, which reflects the average age of all DOGE on the blockchain, has increased. This suggests that older coins are being moved, potentially for selling purposes, which could put additional downward pressure on the price in the short term.

While DOGE's price might recover in the long run, the immediate future seems uncertain.

Tax charges dropped against Binance executives by Nigerian authorities

Key points:

  • Tax charges against Binance executives Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla have been dropped by the Nigerian authorities.

  • Only the cryptocurrency exchange remains named as the defendant in the revised charges.

News - Nigerian tax charges against two Binance executives, Tigran Gambaryan and Nadeem Anjarwalla, have been withdrawn, according to a statement from a family spokesperson.

The charges stemmed from the country's investigation into the cryptocurrency exchange.

The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has revised the case to focus solely on Binance, represented by its local branch. Gambaryan, who is currently battling illness, will no longer be required to appear in court for the tax case.

Binance argued that Gambaryan, the head of their financial crime compliance division, lacks decision-making authority and shouldn't have been charged.

The backstory - Gambaryan and Anjarwalla (who escaped shortly after their detention in February) were initially accused of money laundering and tax evasion. The family spokesperson maintains they were wrongly detained, highlighting their non-decision-making roles within the crypto exchange.

The next hearing in the money laundering case is set for 19 June, with the trial resuming on 20 June. Gambaryan remains detained at Kuje prison despite a court order mandating his hospitalization.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • BitConnect lured users with promises of high returns on unbeatable trading but turned out to be a $4 billion Ponzi scheme. Users lent crypto, received investment payments, and then watched it all crash. They even launched a second scam, BitconnectX, before disappearing.

  • Inspired by Squid Game, $SQUID promised play-to-earn riches. But like a real-life rug pull," creators cashed out, leaving investors with worthless tokens after a meteoric rise and crash. In merely seconds, the fraudsters ran away with $3.3 million.

  • Quadriga, Canada's once-trusted crypto giant, crashed amidst fraud accusations. Founder Cotten, holding sole access to $250M in user funds, died mysteriously in India. Most people don’t believe he died and accuse that he spread misinformation about his death.

Top 3 coins of the day

Solana (SOL)

Key points:

  • At press time, SOL was trading at $147.87 with bears in charge.

  • Its social dominance metric took a hit in the past few days.

What you should know - On a higher timeframe, SOL has been trading within a descending channel. The lower line of the descending channel has been acting as a good support level, especially the $144 level which has prevented the coin from dropping to its month-long support of $138. On the upper side, SOL has had quite a difficult time surpassing the $187; it was a price level last seen on 4 April. Selling pressure was dominant, at the time of writing. RSI stood at the 38 mark facing southward, this went on to reveal that buying pressure could be further away for a couple of more days. This, until RSI enters oversold territory and initiates a trend reversal.

Toncoin (TON)

Key points:

  • TON defied the broader market trend in the past seven days.

  • The bullish momentum could continue for a few more trading sessions.

What you should know - Despite the global crypto market’s ongoing struggles to bounce back, TON reached an all-time-high (ATH) of $8.13 on 14 June. In the next few trading sessions, traders are expecting the coin to push past the $10 psychological resistance. Well, this could be possible since the technical indicator MACD supported the bullish momentum, at the time of this analysis. However, if massive profit-taking gives an edge to sellers, TON might dip to its near-term support zone of $5.64-$5 within a week. It’s also important to note that the trade volume has fallen in the last day. Now, this could be an area of concern for the short-term investors.

Uniswap (UNI)

Key points:

  • At press time, UNI was trading at $10.90 with massive buying pressure.

  • It registered an upside of close to 9% in the last 24 hours.

What you should know - Unlike most top 20 cryptocurrencies, Uniswap's UNI token defied the recent downturn, recording gains in both the last 24 hours and the past week. This bullish performance was accompanied by a decrease in volatility compared to May. Interestingly, UNI's correlation with Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, has strengthened over the past month. At press time, UNI faced resistance around $12, but strong support with ample liquidity sat at $8.68. UNI has also seen an impressive 87% gain since its 13 April low of $5.96. Market sentiment remained positive and in favor of buyers, at the time of writing.

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