Donald Trump boosts Bitcoin

July 15, 2024

Reading time: 5 minutes

Volatility surges in Bitcoin market following Trump's assassination attempt

Key points:

  • Bitcoin jumped 7% to $62,500 following an attempted assassination of Trump.

  • The crypto market is signaling positive momentum.

News - Financial markets have experienced notable volatility following an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend.

The incident has led to a sharp rally in Bitcoin, which surged 7% to $62,500, as investors anticipate a boost in Trump's chances of winning the 4th November election. According to Polymarket, the probability of Trump’s victory has risen to 70% now.

What’s happening on the technical side? The price of Bitcoin has also exceeded its crucial 200-day simple moving average, indicating a positive shift in market momentum.

Trump's recent embrace of cryptocurrency appears to be a strategic move to appeal to the crypto community, which seeks more favorable regulatory conditions. He is scheduled to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville on 27 July, further boosting market sentiment.

In contrast, the Chinese yuan has weakened against the U.S. dollar amid fears of increased trade tariffs if Trump returns to power. Treasury futures have fallen, suggesting potential higher yields and increased budget deficits. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are slightly up, reflecting a cautiously optimistic market outlook despite broader concerns.

South Korea's ruling party proposes delay in crypto tax implementation

Key points:

  • The party has proposed delaying the crypto gains tax until 1 January 2028.

  • The original tax start date was 1 January 2025, but has been postponed several times.

News - South Korea’s ruling party The People's Power Party officially proposed postponing the tax, citing unfavorable market conditions and the need for regulations first.

Originally slated for January 2025, the tax could now be delayed until 2028. This aligns with the party's pre-election promise of a two-year postponement.

On July 12, the party submitted a proposal arguing that the current sentiment towards digital assets wasn’t unfavorable, and enforcing such a tax now was “not advisable.”

What’s more? Originally, the tax on crypto gains was scheduled to commence on 1 January 2025. However, if the proposal is accepted, this implementation could be postponed until 1 January 2028.

The party emphasizes the need for a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies before tax measures are applied. Unlike stock exchanges, there is currently no regulatory body overseeing crypto transactions, making it crucial to develop such a system over the next two years.

This proposed delay would mean that the crypto tax implementation could be postponed by nearly seven years from its initial 2021 schedule, reflecting ongoing concerns from industry stakeholders and investor interests.

Lazarus Group launders $305 million from DMM Bitcoin breach

Key points:

  • Hackers stole $305 million in Bitcoin from DMM exchange in May.

  • Over $35 million is suspected to be laundered through Huione Guarantee, a Cambodian marketplace.

News - Hackers responsible for the massive $305 million DMM Bitcoin hack in May are suspected to be laundering stolen funds through an online marketplace in Cambodia.

Cryptocurrency investigator ZachXBT reported that over $35 million has been funneled to Huione Guarantee, a Cambodian marketplace linked to the country's ruling family.

More details - According to blockchain forensics firm Elliptic, Huione has a history of transacting billions obtained through hacks and scams. Investigators suspect the Lazarus Group, a notorious hacking group, is behind the laundering operation based on signature techniques used.

The laundering process involves converting stolen Bitcoin into privacy coins, then bridging them to other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Avalanche. Finally, the funds are converted into Tether (USDT) and transferred to Tron before reaching Huione.

However, Tether blacklisted a Tron wallet address associated with Huione, preventing the transfer of $28.2 million. This wallet is believed to be responsible for receiving $14 million from the DMM hack within just three days of the hack.

Crypto crime on the rise in Australia: Regulators urge tighter controls

Key points:

  • AUSTRAC report warns of a rise in money laundering using cryptocurrencies.

  • Cash, real estate, and luxury goods remain the top methods for large-scale money laundering.

News - Australia's financial intelligence agency, AUSTRAC, has raised concerns about the increasing use of cryptocurrencies and related services for money laundering. Their latest Money Laundering National Risk Assessment highlights a significant rise in criminal activity involving digital assets.

While cash, real estate, and luxury goods remain the most preferred methods for large-scale money laundering, the report warns of a potential shift towards cryptocurrencies. AUSTRAC cites the anonymity and speed of crypto transactions as factors that could attract criminals.

The report assigns a "very high" risk factor to traditional money laundering methods, while cryptocurrencies receive a "high" risk rating. However, AUSTRAC anticipates this risk to rise significantly in the future.

To combat this growing threat, AUSTRAC emphasizes the need for stricter regulations. The agency reiterates the requirement for crypto exchanges to register under Australia's Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act (AML/CTF). This move aims to increase transparency and make it harder for criminals to exploit the crypto space.

The report also stresses the importance of international cooperation and continual adaptation of regulations to stay ahead of evolving money laundering techniques involving digital assets.

Did you know?

  • Unlike traditional stock markets, crypto markets operate 24/7. This allows global participation and quicker reaction times to market events and news. However, it also means prices can fluctuate significantly outside regular trading hours.

  • The first Bitcoin transaction involved two pizzas from Papa Jones, worth 10,000 BTC in 2010. Today, the same 10,000 BTC would be worth over $600 million, highlighting the massive appreciation of BTC within 15 years.

  • The identity of the pseudonymous Bitcoin creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, remains unknown. And yet, Nakamoto has some of the largest BTC holdings, estimated at 1.1 million BTC. That’s over $60 billion based on current market prices.

Top 3 coins of the day

Ethereum (ETH)

Key points:

  • At the time of writing, ETH was changing hands at $3,352.

  • ETH’s open interest increased 5.66% over the last few days.

What you should know - Ethereum has recently mirrored Bitcoin's reversal from bearish trends, marking a significant recovery. Over the past week, ETH surged by 10.37%, with a notable 5.37% gain in the last 24 hours. On July 8, ETH surpassed its previous resistance level of $3,084, trading at $3,352. Should the bullish momentum persist, ETH could potentially test its resistance zone between $3,566 and $3,927 within the coming week. Conversely, if the price fails to breach the $3,437 resistance, a decline toward the $2,866 to $2,652 range could occur. However, such a drop seems unlikely given the RSI's current reading of 54.52, indicating a positive trend.

XRP

Key points:

  • At press time, XRP was trading 20.80% up over the last seven days.

  • On a macro-frame, the momentum seems to be on the bullish side.

What you should know - XRP has emerged as one of the top performers among the top 10 cryptocurrencies over the past week. After trading sideways since 14 April, XRP fell below its support level of $0.4658 on 3 July, reaching a low of $0.3852 by 5 July. However, bullish momentum quickly reversed the decline, propelling XRP to $0.5666. Currently, the Awesome Oscillator is displaying a bullish histogram below the neutral line, suggesting strengthening bullish momentum. This technical indicator supports the potential for further gains, although caution is warranted as the market could still experience fluctuations. With the current positive signal from the AO, XRP seems positioned for continued upward movement if the bullish trend persists.

Near Protocol (NEAR)

Key points:

  • At press time, NEAR was trading at $5.57 with bulls in charge.

  • The altcoin registered a 7-day increase of 19.13%.

What you should know - NEAR Protocol (NEAR) has seen a substantial 35.68% increase since 8 July, driven by significant buy pressure. Currently, NEAR is approaching its near-term resistance level of $6.38. If Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum, NEAR could test the $7 resistance in the near future. The RSI stands at 55, indicating that NEAR has room for further growth before reaching overbought conditions. This positive RSI reading supports the potential for continued gains, provided that broader market conditions remain favorable. Overall, NEAR’s recent performance and technical indicators suggest a bullish outlook.

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