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- ETH ETF sees $370M outflow
ETH ETF sees $370M outflow
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US spot ETH ETFs bleed $370M in 12 days - Will staking offer relief?
Key points:
U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs bled $370M in the past 12 days.
BlackRock’s Robert Mitchnick stated that ETF staking could be a ‘huge step change’ for the products.
News - The U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs bled $370M in a 12-day outflow stretch, a weak demand that could derail ETH price recovery above $2K. But ETF staking interest surged as Bitwise sought SEC’s permission, while BlackRock projected that it could improve demand.
ETH ETF staking - The U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw record $370M outflows for the past 12 days. So far in March, investors have withdrawn $382.5M from the products per Soso Value data. This massive bleedout was on track to rival July 2024’s (debut month) $483M bleed-out.
ETH recovery could be capped if the current investors’ risk-off sentiment persisted. For the past nine days, the altcoin has toiled below $2K. It was down 47% from its January peak of $3.7K.
However, Robert Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets Research at BlackRock, noted that the lack of ETF staking held back the products. In a recent interview with CNBC, he said,
“If that (ETH ETF staking) can get figured out, then it’s going to be sort of a step change upward in terms of what we see the activity around those products is.”
Staking is a method investor could put their ETH into work by locking them up with node operators and getting passive rewards in return. Several issuers have sought the SEC’s nod for ETH ETF staking.
On Thursday, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) filed with the SEC to allow staking on Bitwise Ethereum ETF (ETHW). Last month, similar applications were filed for Grayscale and 21Shares Ethereum ETFs.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered recently downgraded ETH’s price outlook for 2025 by 60% to $4K.
Bad news for Bitcoin bulls? CryptoQuant CEO stands by bear market BTC call
Key points:
CryptoQuant CEO doubled down on his bear market call for BTC for the next 6-12 months.
He warned that retail was already in the market via BTC ETFs.
News - CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju doubled down on his BTC bear market call and slammed critics. Young Ju dismissed the argument that BTC hadn’t topped out because retail was not in the market. He projected that BTC could enter a sideway price action with a wide range.
Bitcoin bulls’ headache - According to Young Ju, the much-awaited retail, which marked BTC top in the past, was already in the market via BTC ETFs and controlled 80% of the flows.
“Retail is likely entering through ETF…The idea that the cycle isn’t over just because on-chain retail activity is absent needs reconsideration. About 80% of spot ETF flows are retail-driven.”
The executive’s counterargument followed a flurry of criticisms against his bear market call on March 18. Part of his statement read,
“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action…Every on-chain metric signals a bear market. With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.”
Macro headwinds - However, some analysts pointed out that BTC was driven by macro factors, especially Fed rate cuts and Trump’s tariffs.
In fact, Arthur Hayes, BitMEX founder and CIO at Maelstrom, projected that BTC might have bottomed out at $77K following the Fed’s plans to slow QT (quantitative tightening) from April.
However, Young Ju countered that macro uncertainty was hard to predict, and if it improved, it would reflect on-chain, but that wasn’t the case at press time. He added,
“If the macro environment had truly improved, new liquidity would already be showing. If uncertainty fades and rate cuts arrive, fresh liquidity will likely trigger the buy signal.”
That said, BTC slightly retraced from $87K to $84K after the Fed QT taper. However, as of Thursday, BTC ETFs recorded $661M inflows this week and could potentially break from the past five weeks’ stretch of outflows. Even so, it remains to be seen whether Ju’s projection will be validated.
Crypto will ‘expand US dollar dominance,’ says Trump
Key points:
Trump acknowledged crypto’s potential to drive ‘economic growth’ and US dollar dominance through stablecoins.
He reiterated his support for the sector, including regulatory rollbacks.
News - President Trump's speech at the Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) reinforced crypto’s importance as an economic driver and US dollar dominance. Contrary to market expectations on crypto tax updates, Trump only highlighted what the new regime has done to the sector.
Crypto and stablecoins - President Donald Trump highlighted the importance of dollar-backed stablecoins in driving US dollar dominance. He said,
“You (crypto) will unleash an explosion of economic growth, and with dollar-backed stablecoins, you will help expand the dominance of the US dollar.”
Trump added that collectively, they would make America the ‘undisputed Bitcoin superpower’ and ‘crypto capital’ of the world.
His statement on stablecoin echoed the rising dominance of Tether (USDT issuer) on US treasury bills. According to Tether’s founder, Paolo Ardoino, the firm was the seventh-largest buyer of US treasury bills in 2024, with $33.1B used to back its USDT stablecoin.
In addition, Trump called out crypto debanking, famously dubbed as ‘Operation ChokePoint’ and stated,
“We’re ending the last administration’s regulatory war on crypto and Bitcoin, and that includes stopping the lawless Operation Choke Point. Operation Choke Point went beyond regulation, and I mean far beyond.”
Since taking office in January, the President signed two crypto executive orders to establish a digital asset working group and create a strategic BTC reserve. Over the same period, the new SEC made several regulatory rollbacks to various crypto firms, including Coinbase, Uniswap, MetaMask, and Ripple.
Solana DEX Wars-Can Pump.fun’s PumpSwap overtake Raydium?
Key points:
Pump.fun launched its PumpSwap DEX to migrate its graduated tokens instantly.
The move comes after Raydium unveiled a Pump.fun version called LaunchLabs.
News - After weeks of testing, Pump.fun finally unveiled its decentralized exchange (DEX) called PumpSwap. The Solana-based memecoin launchpad will ditch Raydium for its PumpSwap to provide liquidity for graduated tokens.
Raydium vs Pump.fun - In late February, Raydium’s RAY declined nearly 50% following the news of Pump.fun testing a competitor. This wasn’t surprising, given that Raydium’s volume was dominated by Pump.fun tokens (about 26% as of March 9).
However, the memecoin mania slowed, dragging Pump.fun volume on Raydium from $3B in January to $200M in March. That’s over 90% decline, a move that put Pump.fun’s lifeline at risk. For diversification, it opted for a DEX, PumpSwap.
Alen Cohen, Pump.fun founder, stated that the DEX was designed to escape the crypto bubble.
“Our goal from day one was to build a product that could escape the crypto bubble and capture the attention of millions of non-crypto natives.”
On its part, Raydium unveiled its memecoin launchpad, LaunchLab, but stated it was not meant to eat into Pump.fun share. According to Raydium contributor Infra, the move would ‘enrich Solana.’ He said,
“GTM (go to market)? Not about stealing Pump's users—it’s about enriching Solana. Targets teams (esp Web2) craving a plug-and-play launchpad and Pump users preferring Raydium’s AMM v4 over Pump’s new AMM. Neutral, seamless, not a zero-sum fight.”
That said, RAY declined 18% after PumpSwap was released, valued at $1.7 at the time of writing.
More stories from the crypto ecosystem
Crypto scams uncovered
Bybit’s $1.4B hacked funds are half of 2024 total stolen crypto funds ($3B). About 7.5% of the Bybit heist has gone dark, per CEO Ben Zhou, citing difficulty tracing the funds once they go through crypto mixers.
Renowned Web3 investigator ZachXBT has linked the mysterious Hyperliquid whale, who bagged $20M in high-leveraged trading, to casino exploits and phishing scams. The alleged trader (alias William Packover) stole $1M from casinos in Finland and was indicted in the UK in the 2010s for hacking and gambling.
In February 2022, just before crypto winter intensified, Wormhole Bridge lost 120K wrapped ETH (wETH) worth $325M at that time, to a hack. The attacker tricked Solana’s side of the Bridge and minted 120K wETH out of thin air without replacing it with an equivalent amount on Ethereum's side. The stolen funds were swapped to ETH and other assets and swiftly moved to hide the trail.
Top 3 coins of the day
PancakeSwap (CAKE)
Key points:
CAKE was in a bullish market structure at press time following a recent breakout.
However, the daily RSI cautioned that the rally could hit overheated levels soon.
What you should know:
PancakeSwap (CAKE) was one of the top weekly gainers, up nearly 70%. The upswing effectively marked out $1.4 as the bottom in February and March, making it a crucial support to watch. In addition, the altcoin fronted a bullish breakout from its downtrend channel and was above the upper range. While this reinforced the bull market edge, the daily RSI cautioned of a likely overheated market as it neared the overbought zone. Further rally could be confirmed if CAKE blasts above the resistance at $3 (red). That said, a retest at the moving averages or $1.4 support could offer new buying opportunities.
Toncoin (TON)
Key points:
TON was up 54% from March lows of $2.3 and was amongst the top weekly gainers.
Bulls appeared to be losing momentum below $4; can the rally be extended?
What you should know:
TON was amongst the top weekly gainers, up 54% from March lows. However, the recovery seemed to be losing steam at the daily chart's key moving average (50-EMA, blue). TON price has consolidated around the moving average for five days. Over the same period, the CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) tapered off slightly, signaling slowed inflows. This could derail an extended recovery. If so, the pullback to $2.5 or $3 could offer swing traders new buying opportunities. However, an extended uptrend could be feasible only if $3.6 was defended.
Berachain (BERA)
Key points:
BERA was a top daily gainer, up 5%, and was slightly away from the key supply zone.
Price action appeared to form a rising triangle pattern, which could be a bullish cue if validated.
What you should know:
BERA was a top daily gainer and logged 5% per CoinMarketCap data. Since March 10, the altcoin has formed higher lows and flat resistance around $7, chalking a rising triangle pattern that was yet to be validated. If confirmed, the bullish formation could push BERA to $7.5 - A potential 10% extra gain. However, demand was flat, as revealed by the 12-hour RSI, and inflows stagnated at the average levels per CMF. Simply put, there was no strong demand, at press time, to push BERA’s recovery. The immediate key level to watch was the supply zone at $7 (red).
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