ETH undervalued! Rebound incoming?

February 12, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Ethereum hits deep undervaluation zone: Poised for a rebound?

Key points:

  • Ethereum is in one of its most undervalued zones in years, with its ETH/BTC ratio down 47% over the past 12 months.

  • Analysts point to historical trends suggesting ETH could see a February rebound, despite macroeconomic and technical risks.

News - Ethereum has entered one of its deepest undervaluation phases in years, according to a report by Bitwise Asset Management. The firm’s analysts highlight that ETH has underperformed Bitcoin since late 2022, with its ETH/BTC ratio now at 0.027 BTC, down 47% year-over-year.

Why is ETH struggling?

  • Fragmented activity – The rise of Layer 2 solutions has dispersed user engagement, limiting direct demand for ETH on the mainnet.

  • Alternative narratives – The hype around AI, memecoins, and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has shifted investor focus to cheaper, high-growth alternatives.

  • Technical breakdown – ETH’s price has fallen below its 200-day moving average ($3,000), putting it at risk of further declines.

Despite these concerns, historical data suggests Ethereum could stage a comeback. Bitwise notes that ETH has delivered positive returns in February for seven of the last eight years, making this a key month to watch.

ETH price outlook: $2,400 or rebound? - Ethereum’s current resistance sits at $2,700. If ETH reclaims this level and the 200-day moving average, it could trigger a rally toward $2,900.

However, technical indicators paint a mixed picture:

  • A break below $2,400 could lead to another sharp decline, testing the $2,100 support zone.

  • The ETH futures market is cooling off, with fewer leveraged positions, which may reduce volatility and allow for a more stable recovery.

What’s next?

  • Macroeconomic headwinds persist – Inflation concerns and delayed Fed rate cuts could weigh on crypto markets.

  • ETH ETF demand lags behind Bitcoin – ETH ETFs hold just $10.15B compared to Bitcoin ETFs’ $115B, indicating a slower institutional adoption rate.

  • A potential February rally – If historical trends hold, ETH could recover, but it must reclaim key resistance levels to confirm a breakout.

For now, Ethereum remains at a critical juncture, with investors closely watching whether on-chain activity and macro trends can reignite buying pressure.

Solana faces key resistance at $201 as on-chain activity declines

Key points:

  • Solana’s price has dropped over 6% in 24 hours, struggling below $201 resistance, with support at $183.

  • On-chain activity and memecoin demand have weakened, contributing to lower network engagement and reduced SOL demand.

News - Solana (SOL) has slipped below $195, facing mounting resistance at $201 as investor sentiment weakens. A combination of macro pressures and on-chain declines has contributed to its bearish trajectory.

Key factors driving SOL’s decline:

  • Hawkish Federal Reserve stance – Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled no urgency for rate cuts, reducing investor appetite for risk assets like SOL.

  • Declining network activity – Solana’s daily transactions have dropped from 71,738 (January 23) to 23,835 (February 12), signaling reduced user engagement.

  • Memecoin slowdown – The market cap of Solana-based memecoins has fallen to $11.15 billion, with Trump (TRUMP) coin down 80% from its peak.

While SOL’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio at 1.40 suggests that the asset is not overvalued, cautious investor sentiment and declining inflows have kept buying pressure low.

SOL price outlook: Key levels to watch - Solana is testing key technical levels, with $183 serving as support:

  • A break above $201 could push SOL toward $221, but requires stronger market participation.

  • If $183 support fails, the head-and-shoulders pattern suggests a potential 40% drop to $109.

  • Short-term resistance at $195 remains critical—if SOL closes below this level, it could slide toward $175–$157 in the coming weeks.

What’s next?

  • Investor caution remains high – The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows continued outflows, suggesting weak bullish momentum.

  • Rate cut expectations are fading – With fewer than two Fed rate cuts expected in 2025, macro headwinds could keep risk assets under pressure.

  • Market sentiment needs to shift – A resurgence in on-chain activity or memecoin hype could help stabilize Solana’s price action.

For now, SOL remains at a make-or-break point, with $201 resistance and $183 support shaping its next big move.

Bitcoin drops below $95K as CPI data and Fed stance weigh on markets

Key points:

  • U.S. inflation data came in higher than expected, with CPI rising 3.0% YoY, leading to a sell-off in crypto and traditional markets.

  • Bitcoin fell below $95,000, facing strong resistance at $98,000; whales and key support levels at $90K–$92K could determine its next move.

News - Bitcoin’s downward trend intensified after U.S. inflation data for January came in hotter than expected, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates.

Key inflation data:

  • CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year, higher than the expected 2.9%.

  • Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, climbed 3.3% YoY, compared to expectations of 3.1%.

  • The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.63%, reducing demand for risk assets like Bitcoin.

Markets reacted quickly, with Bitcoin dropping below $95,000 and U.S. stock futures slipping 1%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that interest rate cuts are not imminent, further dampening investor sentiment.

Bitcoin’s technical setup: Key levels to watch - Bitcoin is now testing critical support zones amid selling pressure:

  • $98,000 resistance (50-day EMA) – BTC has failed to break above this level since February 5, making it a major obstacle for a rebound.

  • $90,000–$92,000 support – Whale accumulation at $89.2K–$92K suggests that large holders are unlikely to sell at a loss, making this a potential floor.

  • Breakdown risks – If Bitcoin loses the $90K level, it could trigger a deeper correction toward $88K or lower.

What’s next?

  • Short-term holders are panicking – Glassnode data shows that traders who bought BTC in the past month have realized $834M in losses, adding to selling pressure.

  • Institutional whales may step in – Analysts suggest that “seller exhaustion” is underway, meaning a potential trend reversal could emerge soon.

  • Fed’s March 19 meeting in focus – The market is now pricing in no rate cuts until September, which could keep Bitcoin’s upside momentum limited in the near term.

For now, Bitcoin’s battle between $90K support and $98K resistance will determine its next move. If whales hold firm, BTC could recover, but if macro fears persist, a retest of $88K remains a possibility.

SEC’s Hester Peirce says memecoins are outside agency’s jurisdiction

Key points:

  • SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce clarified that memecoins like TRUMP and MELANIA likely do not fall under the SEC’s jurisdiction, suggesting that Congress or the CFTC may be responsible for regulating them.

  • TRUMP memecoin investors have lost over $2 billion since its peak in January, with its price down 80% from its all-time high.

News - Memecoins have been a major driver of crypto market speculation, but according to SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, many of them fall outside the agency’s jurisdiction. In a recent Bloomberg interview, Peirce stated that the SEC’s current regulations do not adequately cover memecoins, making them more of a Congressional or CFTC concern.

Her remarks come as TRUMP memecoin has crashed 80% from its all-time high of $72.60, leading to over $2 billion in investor losses. Despite the downturn, Trump’s organization and its partners have reportedly made $100 million in trading fees.

Peirce’s perspective:

  • Memecoins function more like collectibles, rather than securities.

  • The SEC should not regulate assets that do not fit its existing framework.

  • Government should not hinder innovation, but instead promote a regulatory environment that encourages experimentation.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci echoed Peirce’s thoughts, stating that memecoins are more akin to collectibles rather than investment securities.

Memecoin market reaction:

  • The total memecoin market cap fell 1% in the past 24 hours to $75.6 billion, as investors reassess their risk appetite.

  • Dogwifhat (WIF) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) led the losses, reflecting a cooling-off period in speculative trading.

  • Celebrity-backed memecoins like TRUMP and MELANIA have struggled, with traders shifting toward projects that offer real-world utility.

What’s next?

  • Memecoins are unlikely to face immediate SEC action, but future regulations from Congress or the CFTC could provide more clarity.

  • The SEC’s stance on crypto is evolving, as Peirce’s leadership of the new SEC Crypto Task Force suggests a potential shift away from enforcement-first policies.

  • Despite the volatility, memecoins continue to attract investor interest, though Peirce’s comments highlight regulatory uncertainties that could impact their future.

Did you know?

  • South Korean police confirmed that North Korean hackers linked to the country's intelligence agency were responsible for a 2019 theft of 342,000 Ethereum tokens, valued at approximately $41.5 million at the time. The stolen assets were laundered through various cryptocurrency exchanges. 

  • BBC broadcaster Nick Robinson's X (formerly Twitter) account was hacked, leading to a false announcement about launching a cryptocurrency named "$TODAY" on the Solana platform. Robinson cautioned listeners against clicking on suspicious links and clarified that he was still locked out of his account.

  • In July 2024, Indian cryptocurrency exchange WazirX suffered acyberattack resulting in the theft of approximately $235 million worth of crypto assets. The breach was attributed to North Korea's Lazarus Group. Following the attack, WazirX suspended trading activities and initiated legal proceedings to recover the lost funds. In January 2025, the Singapore High Court approved WazirX's restructuring plan, enabling the repayment of affected users.

Top 3 coins of the day

Jito (JTO)

Key points:

  • At press time, JTO was trading at $2.68, reflecting a 2.02% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The MACD histogram showed diminishing red bars, hinting at a potential bullish crossover, while the Parabolic SAR indicated an uptrend continuation.

What you should know:

JTO witnessed a moderate recovery, climbing to $2.68 after a recent downturn. The price action showed resilience as buyers re-entered the market near the $2.40 zone. The Parabolic SAR dots aligned below the price candles, suggesting a continuation of the upward momentum. Additionally, the MACD line appeared poised to cross above the signal line, which could further solidify a bullish outlook if sustained buying pressure continues. However, the coin still faced resistance around the $2.80 mark, which acted as a ceiling in previous sessions. If bulls manage to push beyond this level, JTO could see a retest of the $3.00 zone. Conversely, a rejection at resistance could drive prices back toward the $2.50 region. Traders should keep an eye on the MACD crossover and volume activity to gauge the strength of this recovery trend.

XDC Network (XDC)

Key points:

  • At press time, XDC was trading at $0.090, reflecting a slight decline of 0.26% over the last 24 hours.

  • The price remained below the 9-day EMA, indicating bearish momentum, while the RSI hovered at 42.30, suggesting weak buying pressure.

What you should know:

XDC faced a downward trajectory, with selling pressure keeping it below the 9-day EMA of $0.092. The lack of bullish momentum kept buyers on the sidelines, reflected in the RSI reading of 42.30, which suggested that the asset remained in a weak consolidation phase. However, a key support zone emerged near $0.085, which could act as a potential floor if the downtrend persists. On the upside, the resistance between $0.095 and $0.100 remains crucial for any meaningful recovery. If buyers manage to push the price above this level, it could signal a potential shift in momentum. For now, the technical indicators favor the bears, though a rebound remains possible if the broader market sentiment improves.

Ethena (ENA)

Key points:

  • At press time, ENA was trading at $0.41, reflecting a 6.08% decline over the last 24 hours.

  • It was one of the biggest losers in today's market, indicating persistent selling pressure.

What you should know:

ENA's price action showed a consistent downtrend, with the 9-day SMA ($0.49) acting as dynamic resistance. The asset struggled to sustain bullish momentum, experiencing a sharp decline after peaking above $1.20 in January. Moreover, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) at -0.25 signaled strong capital outflows, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Volume analysis suggested increased trading activity, possibly from panic selling. If the downward pressure continues, support at $0.40 remains a key level to watch. A break below this could extend losses toward $0.35, while a bounce-back above the SMA may indicate a reversal attempt. Traders should monitor the CMF for any shift towards positive territory as a potential signal of buying strength.

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