Ethereum bulls: Time to panic?

July 02, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Ethereum faces breakdown risk as bulls retreat: Can $2,220 hold?

Key points:

  • Ethereum remained rangebound below $2,550, with multiple rejections at a key resistance zone signaling potential downside toward $2,220.

  • Rising exchange inflows, declining ETF demand, and a lack of bullish volume confirm short-term weakness, despite strong institutional interest.

News - Ethereum’s recent rally stalled at the $2,550 resistance zone, where it was rejected for the third time in just over a week. This zone aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, point of control (POC), and a critical high-timeframe resistance. The latest pullback formed a new local low—suggesting a structural breakdown—without any accompanying spike in volume, pointing to fading bullish momentum.

With ETH struggling to reclaim $2,430–$2,460 levels, attention now shifts to the $2,220 support region. This level holds historical significance as a demand zone and includes an unfilled fair value gap.

Institutional staking support vs on-chain weakness - Bit Digital’s $162.9 million public offering to expand its Ethereum staking strategy boosted confidence in ETH’s long-term value proposition. The company, transitioning from Bitcoin mining, now holds over 24,400 ETH and plans to allocate more funds into validator operations and ETH treasury accumulation.

Despite this, Ethereum saw over 100,000 ETH flow into exchanges on July 1—the highest daily inflow in a month. One whale transferred $165 million worth of unstaked ETH to CEXs at a loss, signaling stop-loss behavior and adding to short-term sell pressure.

ETF flows slow, Q3 history weighs - U.S. spot ETH ETFs are still seeing net inflows, but they’ve slowed sharply—from $240M on June 11 to just $40M on July 1. Combined with ETH’s historically weak Q3 average return of 0.59%, analysts expect further consolidation unless macro conditions or volume profiles improve.

Bitcoin ETFs lose steam as corporates take over: Bulls eye $135K–$140K next

Key points:

  • Bitcoin ETFs ended a 15-day inflow streak with $342M in outflows on 1 July, while Ethereum funds added $40.68M.

  • Public firms acquired more BTC than ETFs in Q2 2025, with bullish price targets from Standard Chartered and CryptoQuant.

News - Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $342.25 million in outflows on 1 July, snapping a 15-day inflow streak that brought in nearly $4.7 billion. Despite this, year-to-date inflows still total $13.4 billion, with ETF holdings now representing 6.23% of Bitcoin’s market cap.

Ethereum ETFs, meanwhile, extended their modest winning streak with $40.68 million in net inflows, pushing ETH fund assets to $9.95 billion. BlackRock’s ETHA led the day, while Fidelity’s FETH posted outflows.

Publicly traded companies are now proving to be even bigger BTC buyers. Q2 2025 saw corporate treasuries accumulate 131,000 BTC—beating ETF growth of 111,000 BTC. This marked the third straight quarter where companies outpaced funds. Today, public firms hold about 4% of all BTC, compared to 6.8% by ETFs.

Price projections and profit targets - Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin will hit $135,000 by Q3 and $200,000 by year-end, citing ETF momentum and rising corporate accumulation. The bank believes the current cycle may defy past halving corrections.

On-chain data from CryptoQuant supports this view. Their research suggests BTC must rally to $140,000 for long-term holders to reach profit levels seen in 2024, based on realized profit ratios.

Corporate confidence grows - Design software firm Figma disclosed $69.5 million in Bitcoin ETF holdings and $30 million in USDC for future BTC purchases in its IPO filing. It joins a growing list of firms adopting BTC treasury strategies, including Strategy (MicroStrategy), GameStop, and ProCap.

The corporate trend is gaining momentum amid a friendlier U.S. regulatory climate post-Trump’s re-election—making BTC holdings more attractive from both capital and reputational standpoints.

SOL slips 8% as ETF launch fails to spark rally

Key points:

  • Solana launched its first U.S.-listed ETF with staking rewards via REX-Osprey’s SSK product, but SOL still fell nearly 8% to $145.08.

  • SOL trades near the critical $144–$147 support cluster, with analysts warning of a possible 20% drop if it fails to hold above this level.

News - Solana’s long-anticipated ETF debut in the U.S. failed to ignite a sustained rally, as SOL slid 7.84% to $145.08 on July 1—ahead of the REX-Osprey SOL + Staking ETF (SSK) launch on July 2. The fund, structured under the 1940 Act, is the first U.S.-listed ETF to combine direct SOL exposure with native staking rewards, passing yield directly to investors.

Despite the product’s innovative design and institutional appeal, market reaction remained subdued. While SSK aims to hold up to 80% in SOL—half of which will be actively staked—SOL’s price erased its ETF-driven 5% surge to $160 within 24 hours.

Critical support zone faces pressure - Technical indicators suggest a precarious path ahead. The $144–$147 range, which holds 14.3% of SOL’s circulating supply, now acts as a pivotal support cluster. A decisive breakdown below this zone could expose the token to deeper declines toward $124 or even the $95–$100 region, where support is considerably thinner.

Solana’s bearish momentum is evident across multiple timeframes. Despite recent bullish break-of-structure formations, SOL has failed to reclaim the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, underscoring persistent structural weakness.

ETF launch overshadowed by price action - The ETF’s launch highlights growing institutional confidence, with firms like Grayscale and VanEck also pursuing SOL-based products. However, the sharp sell-off and muted options volatility suggest traders remain cautious. Analysts argue that a clean breakout above $152–$160, backed by volume, is necessary to flip sentiment.

Coinbase acquires Liquifi to streamline token launches and expand prime offering

Key points:

  • Coinbase has acquired token operations startup Liquifi, marking its fourth acquisition in 2025 after the $2.9B Deribit deal.

  • The move strengthens Coinbase Prime with token vesting, compliance, and cap table tools to support startups from pre-launch stages.

News - Coinbase has acquired San Francisco-based token management startup Liquifi in a bid to simplify and scale token launches across the crypto ecosystem. The acquisition—terms of which were not disclosed—follows the exchange’s $2.9 billion Deribit acquisition in May, and expands its 2025 M&A streak to four deals.

Liquifi offers automation for token vesting, cap table management, and regulatory workflows. Its platform currently serves over 100 crypto organizations, including Uniswap Foundation, Optimism (OP Labs), Ethena, and Zora, with more than $8.5 billion in token value under management. Last year alone, Liquifi processed $1.7 billion in token payouts globally.

Why Coinbase bought Liquifi - According to Greg Tusar, Coinbase’s VP of Institutional Product, token launches remain bogged down by fragmented legal, compliance, and liquidity challenges. “Liquifi solves these pain points by automating core workflows while reducing token launch risk,” he said.

The acquisition is designed to give builders institutional-grade tools earlier in their lifecycle—before a token even hits the market. Coinbase plans to integrate Liquifi’s features into Coinbase Prime, tightening its vertical stack across custody, issuance, trading, and financing for corporate clients.

Another strategic step toward onchain infrastructure - This marks Coinbase’s latest effort to expand its institutional infrastructure. Previous 2025 acquisitions include Spindl (Web3 ad attribution) and Iron Fish (privacy-focused tools). The Liquifi deal also positions Coinbase to compete more aggressively with rivals like Binance, which recently launched its own token incubation platform.

Liquifi, which raised $5 million in 2022 from backers like Dragonfly Capital and a16z veterans, called the acquisition “just the beginning” of building industry-grade token infrastructure.

Did you know?

  • Trump included five tokens in proposed U.S. crypto reserve: In March 2025, President Trump named Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, Solana, and Cardano as part of his vision for a national crypto reserve, sending prices of all five tokens surging.

  • BBVA recommends crypto allocation for private clients: Spanish lender BBVA is advising wealthier clients to invest between 3–7% of their portfolios in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting mainstream financial institutions’ increasing confidence in digital assets.

  • Blockchain advances sustainability through tokenized eco‑projects: Rising blockchain applications now support transparent funding for ocean cleanups and reforestation, using on‑chain tracking to verify impact — a growing intersection of crypto and environmental stewardship.

Top 3 coins of the day

Uniswap (UNI)

Key points:

  • At press time, UNI was trading at $7.06, reflecting a 7.22% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The 9-day SMA turned upward after a period of flattening, while the RSI hovered near the neutral zone at 51.44.

What you should know:

UNI rebounded after bouncing off the $6.00 support zone, reclaiming its 9-day SMA and rallying toward the $7.00 mark — a move that may seem counterintuitive given recent red candles, but reflects a higher close on the day. The RSI remained neutral at 51.44, while volume spiked to support the breakout. However, UNI continues to face strong resistance at $8.67 — a level it failed to breach multiple times in June. Recent headwinds from rising BNB Chain DEX dominance, driven by PancakeSwap’s $139B June volume, may be siphoning market share from Uniswap. Adding to bearish sentiment, a UNI whale reportedly moved $2.57 million to Coinbase on June 30, raising speculation of profit-taking. Unless bulls reclaim $8.67, the token may consolidate between $6.00 and $8.67. A breakdown below $6.80 could see it retest $5.79.

Arbitrum (ARB)

Key points:

  • At press time, ARB was trading at $0.34, reflecting a 3.91% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The Parabolic SAR flipped below the candles, and the MACD lines crossed above the signal line, hinting at renewed bullish momentum.

What you should know:

ARB rebounded from the $0.30 zone after a recent dip, reclaiming short-term momentum with a notable price spike. The Parabolic SAR flipped to a bullish signal, placing the dotted markers beneath the latest green candles. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram flipped positive as the MACD line crossed above the signal line — a potential sign of a fresh uptrend forming. Contributing to this rally was Robinhood’s launch of tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs on Arbitrum, positioning the network as key infrastructure for TradFi-DeFi integration. Trading volume spiked as buyers absorbed $148M in tokens during the rollout. If ARB breaks past $0.35 with sustained demand, a move toward $0.40 remains possible.

Kaspa (KAS)

Key points:

  • At press time, KAS was trading at $0.076, reflecting a 3.05% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The price hovered near the midline of the Bollinger Bands, while the Squeeze Momentum Indicator flashed its first green bar after weeks of bearish pressure.

What you should know:

Kaspa rebounded from the lower Bollinger Band near $0.066 in late June, with the price now retesting the midline resistance zone around $0.073. Volumes remained subdued, but the recent uptick in price coincided with a bullish shift in the Squeeze Momentum Indicator, printing its first green bar since early May. Additionally, speculative activity in Kaspa’s options market has intensified, with heavy call buying suggesting short-term optimism among traders. This derivatives-driven interest aligns with broader altcoin rotation as Bitcoin dominance eased slightly. If bulls manage to close above the upper Bollinger Band at $0.081, the rally could extend further. Conversely, failure to maintain above the midline may lead to another retest of the $0.070–$0.066 support zone.

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