Ethereum eyes $5K, but whales wait

July 08, 2025

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Ethereum eyes $5K, but smart money and Genesis whales say ‘not yet’

Key points:

  • Ethereum trades near $2,550, but on-chain indicators and falling developer activity suggest muted momentum toward $5,000.

  • Institutional ETH accumulation is rising, yet dormant Genesis wallets have reawakened amid weakening long-term conviction.

News - Ethereum [ETH] may be gaining bullish chatter around a potential breakout toward $5,000, but current data shows the rally might be getting ahead of itself.

At press time, ETH trades around $2,550, roughly 3.5% higher week-on-week. However, developer activity has dropped by nearly 65% since May, according to Sentiment data, with GitHub commits falling from 71 to just over 25. Historically, such a plunge in core protocol contributions reflects lagging innovation, often a precursor to market hesitation.

Adding to the caution, HODL Waves show a decline in long-term ETH holders, with most wallets now falling in the 1–6 month range. This suggests many investors may be positioning for short-term gains rather than waiting for a true breakout.

Meanwhile, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains below the bullish 0.10 threshold, and On-Balance Volume (OBV) continues to drift near -2.12 million. These flat accumulation trends indicate that whales and institutions haven’t fully committed to the rally, yet.

Institutions quietly absorb ETH supply - Despite weak on-chain momentum, public companies like BitDigital and SharpLink Gaming are steadily buying up new ETH. Together, the firms have acquired over 82% of all ETH issued since the Merge in 2022, as Ethereum’s net issuance sits around just 300,000 ETH. Crypto analyst Pentoshi believes ETH’s supply-demand imbalance may soon turn it into a deflationary institutional asset.

Genesis wallets wake, hint at caution - On-chain watchers noted that two Ethereum Genesis wallets, dormant since Ethereum’s 2015 launch, moved a combined 1,140 ETH (~$2.9M) this week. Another 900 ETH wallet moved $2.2M, fueling speculation over long-term holder sentiment amid resistance near $2,647. ETH remains 48% below its 2021 ATH.

Without renewed dev activity or rising smart money flows, Ethereum may struggle to justify a $5K target, unless the institutional bid intensifies.

BONK surges as LetsBonk dominates, Pump.fun’s $600M TGE stalls

Key points:

  • BONK soared 66% in seven days and flipped TRUMP in market cap as LetsBonk overtook Pump.fun in Solana’s meme launchpad wars.

  • Pump.fun’s rumored $600M token sale was mysteriously removed from Gate.io, fueling doubts amid bot farming concerns.

News - Solana’s memecoin scene is heating up as BONK [BONK] leads a bullish revival, surging 66% over the past week and overtaking TRUMP to become the fourth-largest memecoin by market cap.

The breakout rally follows the rise of LetsBonk, a new meme token launchpad that has dethroned Pump.fun by grabbing over 55% market share, launching more than 22,000 tokens daily, and generating $1.23 million in daily revenue, per DefiLlama. BONK’s price hit a 7-day high of $0.000023, backed by $19 million in spot inflows, a positive BBTrend flip, and 11.2 billion units/min volume spikes.

But this meme-fueled surge comes at a cost for Pump.fun.

Pump.fun’s $600M token launch pulled last minute - Crypto exchange Gate.io published and then abruptly removed a launch page for Pump.fun’s first official token sale, pricing PUMP at $0.004 with a $600 million raise goal. The proposed $4 billion FDV rattled the community, especially since the platform had long denied any token plans.

Gate’s vague response only deepened the mystery: “Following negotiations… the page was removed.” No new launch date has been announced.

Bot woes and meme saturation cloud outlook - Adding fuel to the skepticism, Conor Grogan, Coinbase’s Head of Product, revealed that bots were launching the majority of tokens on both Pump.fun and LetsBonk. One wallet alone created nearly 500 tokens in a single day.

Even as BONK enjoys a run fueled by organic-fee burns, with Bonk.fun routing 58% of revenue to BONK buybacks, concerns remain over sustainability. The overall memecoin market cap has dropped 2.6% in 24 hours, falling to $54.7 billion.

Meme war isn’t over yet - While BONK thrives on LetsBonk’s tokenomics, community engagement, and potential ETF buzz, Pump.fun still boasts over 11 million tokens created and may pivot with new incentives to reclaim ground. For now, however, the meme crown belongs to BONK.

Japan’s bond shock: A crypto liquidity crunch looms?

Key points:

  • Japan’s 30-year bond yield soared past 3%, triggering volatility across global markets and risk assets like Bitcoin.

  • Traders brace for wider liquidity tightening as rising debt concerns, U.S. tariffs, and collapsing real wages unsettle investor sentiment.

News - Japan's 30-year government bond yield surged beyond 3% this week, a level not seen since 2000. While it might sound like a local market tremor, the spike is sending tremors through the global financial system, and the crypto market is no exception.

The selloff in Japanese bonds triggered sharp moves in U.S. and European yields, with long-dated U.S. Treasuries nearing 5%. Global investors, fearing a wave of fiscal borrowing and inflation, are dumping long-term bonds. Japan’s July 20 elections have only added fuel to the fire, as politicians promise costly handouts and tax cuts. Meanwhile, a fresh 25% U.S. tariff on Japanese goods kicks in August 1, further shaking investor confidence.

Risk assets enter the danger zone - Historically, crypto assets like Bitcoin have shown inverse correlations to rate volatility. With Japan no longer a haven for ultra-low rates, traditional liquidity channels are drying up. Analysts warn that this could mark the start of a broader liquidity squeeze, tightening conditions across equities, bonds, and crypto.

"This could be the Black Swan event of the cycle," said BitBull. The MOVE index, which tracks Treasury volatility, has spiked, which is a known precursor to Bitcoin market tops.

Real wages collapse, BOJ trapped - Japan's central bank is also stuck. Real wages dropped 2.9% in May, the steepest fall in 20 months, despite record nominal hikes. Inflation, now over 3.5%, continues to erode purchasing power. With GDP having contracted in Q1 2025, and export demand slowing, the Bank of Japan has little room to maneuver."

Bitcoin holds steady, for now - Despite the global turmoil, Bitcoin is holding firm above $108K. Institutional interest remains high, with firms like Genius Group boosting BTC treasury targets. Analysts suggest BTC’s current stability may attract risk-averse capital, but that calm may be short-lived if bond market chaos deepens.

Hong Kong’s stablecoin race: Fewer than 10 licenses, 40+ giants compete

Key points:

  • Hong Kong will grant fewer than 10 stablecoin licenses when new regulations go live on August 1, despite over 40 applicants including JD.com, Ant Group, and Standard Chartered.

  • The city’s selective approach has sparked cross-border tensions, with Shenzhen warning of rising stablecoin scams amid Hong Kong’s pro-crypto regulatory stance.

News - Hong Kong is set to launch its long-awaited stablecoin licensing regime on August 1, capping full licenses for fiat-referenced stablecoin issuers at fewer than ten. More than 40 financial giants and tech firms, including JD.com, Ant Group, and Standard Chartered, are already preparing their applications.

The new ordinance, passed in May, gives the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) sweeping oversight powers. The city is positioning itself as a global digital finance hub, prioritizing credibility, reserve backing, and anti-money laundering safeguards.

Most applicants are Chinese financial heavyweights or internet conglomerates. Still, only three firms have entered HKMA’s sandbox so far, indicating the narrow path to formal approval. Sandbox participation does not guarantee a license, but it offers early insights into compliance and risk management expectations.

Global momentum and local caution collide - While Hong Kong embraces regulated innovation, its approach contrasts sharply with nearby Shenzhen. Officials there issued public warnings this week about stablecoin-linked scams, urging citizens to report illegal promotions. JD.com itself had to clarify that any circulating “JD stablecoin” tokens are fake.

This divergence is notable—just a short walk separates the two jurisdictions. While Hong Kong courts institutional stablecoin adoption for cross-border payments, mainland regulators remain wary due to fraud risks and crypto bans.

A high bar, few winners - The HKMA has stressed its commitment to high entry standards. Approved issuers must demonstrate strong reserve asset management, real redemption guarantees, and full AML compliance. A six-month transition period will allow existing operators to align with the new framework, or exit.

Hong Kong’s stablecoin law may well become the blueprint for other markets, especially as the U.S., UK, and South Korea race to finalize their own regulatory frameworks.

Interesting facts

  • The U.S. now holds nearly 200,000 BTC in its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, established by Trump’s executive order to retain seized crypto assets, making it one of the largest state-controlled BTC wallets globally.

  • Trump’s $TRUMP memecoin funded an exclusive dinner for top holders with the man himself. But the May 2025 event sparked outrage in Washington, with critics calling it “an orgy of corruption.”

  • A little-known crypto mining firm saw its stock surge 3,000% in a week after announcing a $250M raise to buy Ethereum for its treasury, marking one of the first major corporate treasury plays to favor ETH over Bitcoin.

Top 3 coins of the day

Stellar (XLM)

Key points:

  • At press time, XLM was trading at $0.251, reflecting a 1.37% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The price moved above the 9-day SMA, while the Awesome Oscillator stayed green, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

What you should know:

XLM saw modest gains after recovering from its monthly low near $0.23 and climbing back above the short-term moving average. The 9-day SMA, which acted as dynamic resistance for most of June, was breached as price action formed higher lows across early July. The Awesome Oscillator remained green for several sessions, confirming ongoing bullish momentum. Volume also picked up slightly, hinting at a gradual return of market interest. Part of this rally was driven by short-term traders rotating out of XRP into XLM, seeking quicker upside potential. Meanwhile, Stellar’s on-chain activity surged, processing over 197 million operations in June, and its stablecoin supply hit a record $667 million. Hype also grew around the upcoming integration of PayPal’s PYUSD, expected to bolster cross-border payments. A close above $0.265 could open the door to $0.275–$0.28, while $0.241–$0.245 remains the key support zone.

Solana (SOL)

Key points:

  • At press time, SOL was trading at $150, reflecting a 1.05% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The Parabolic SAR dots trailed below the candles, while the MACD line hovered above the signal line, indicating ongoing bullish momentum.

What you should know:

Solana extended its consolidation just above the $148 support zone after recording a mild 1% daily gain. Price action stayed comfortably above the Parabolic SAR baseline, which has remained in bullish alignment since the start of July, indicating sustained upward pressure despite muted volatility. The MACD line continued to track above the signal line with a slightly fading bullish histogram, suggesting that buying momentum was still in play, though losing strength. Daily trading volumes remained on the lower side, pointing to a lack of conviction from either bulls or bears. Still, Solana recorded 14.63 million active addresses in a single day, marking its highest in months. It also led the blockchain sector in Q2 network revenue with $271 million, reflecting continued utility and adoption. A sustained move above the $155–$158 resistance zone could open the path to $165 and beyond, while $140–$145 remains the key support band to defend.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

Key points:

  • At press time, BCH was trading at $498, reflecting a 0.40% rise over the last 24 hours.

  • The Supertrend indicator remained in a buy zone, while the DMI showed bullish strength with the +DI above the -DI and ADX above 25.

What you should know:

Bitcoin Cash traded just under the $500 level after recording steady gains over the past few sessions. The Supertrend indicator remained firmly in bullish territory, having flipped green in April and sustained the trend through multiple consolidation phases since. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) reflected bullish dominance, with the +DI line holding above the -DI and the ADX at 25, indicating a strengthening trend. Despite a slight dip in daily volume, the price continued to post higher lows, supporting a broader upward structure. A recent 10,000 BCH transfer worth $5M, linked to an $8.5B dormant BTC wallet activation, sparked speculation over legacy key access and drew attention to Bitcoin Cash. Separately, BCH’s rising use in crypto gambling platforms due to its $0.01 fees and speed has also bolstered investor interest. A breakout above $520 could extend gains, while $475 remains key support.

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