Ethereum's Q4 projections

July 12, 2024

Reading time: 5 minutes

Spot ETFs will push Ethereum to new ATH in Q4 - Analyst

Key points:

  • ETH anticipated to react positively to the launch of Spot ETFs.

  • Altcoin might ape Bitcoin’s price performance from earlier in the year.

News - Spot Ethereum ETFs are expected to go live any day now, with prospective issuers having already submitted their amended S-1s to the SEC after their feedback. When they do go live, how will ETH’s price react though?

According to MV Global’s Tom Dunleavy, the altcoin will react positively, even more so than expected. In fact, the exec is predicting these spot ETFs to generates billions in inflows too.

A good “base case” - Specifically, Dunleavy expects spot ETH ETFs to generate flows worth $5 - $10 billion. Here, it’s worth pointing out that these figures aren’t even close to spot Bitcoin ETFs’ numbers, which cumulatively manage approx. $15.9 billion right now.

These numbers will likely have an impact on the altcoin’s price too, with Dunleavy also claiming that these ETFs will push ETH to a new ATH in Q4 of 2024.

This may be the case because spot ETH ETFs are anticipated to attract around $1 billion per month as a “base case.” This number might rise in light of the fact that ETH’s spot price might be more responsive than BTC’s thanks to its lower availability across exchanges, among other reasons.

Bitcoin’s example - There is good reason to expect positive returns from the launch of spot Ethereum ETFs. Especially since Bitcoin’s example from earlier in the year is an interesting case study.

Consider this - The crypto’s price hiked by over 35% within the period between the launch of its first spot BTC ETF and its peak. As the world’s largest altcoin, similarly positive numbers are thus expected from the launch of spot ETH ETFs.

Donald Trump to attend Bitcoin conference in Nashville

Key points:

  • Former U.S President is expected to join the conference as a keynote speaker.

  • Move in sharp contrast to President Biden’s almost hostile position on cryptos.

News - In what is a major step towards reconciliation, former U.S President Donald Trump is all set to join and speak at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, scheduled for later in the month.

This move is expected to help crypto-holders in the United States view the former President more favorably. Especially since President Biden has been fairly critical of these assets in the past.

In fact, so has Trump. Back in 2019, the then-President called Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as scams and “not real money.”

Explaining the pivot - There are good reasons behind Trump’s pivot, even though some might simply call it a case of political expediency.

Unlike in previous elections, crypto is a major issue in 2024. And, it is a bipartisan one too. In fact, a survey by Paradigm recently found that crypto-ownership rates are higher among people of color and millennials - Biden’s primary voter demographic.

Even in the broader sense, 20% of voters across 6 key swing states see crypto as a major election issue.

In light of the fact that crypto Super PACs are expected to spend over $80 million in this election cycle and Trump himself made millions selling NFTs back in 2022, it is understandable why the former President is cozying up to the industry.

Good news for BTC? - As far as industry insiders are concerned, analysts are fairly optimistic about Bitcoin’s chances if Trump is re-elected.

Many of them actually predict BTC to climb as high as $100K or even $150K within the year, if the former President takes office again.

Justin Sun bets big on Ethereum with 1.6K ETH purchase

Key points:

  • TRON Founder’s purchase in anticipation of Spot ETH ETFs going live in the United States.

  • Altcoin expected to hit new ATH within months of these ETFs’ launch.

News - TRON’s Justin Sun is in the news again. This time, after he purchased $5 million worth of ETH with an average buying price of $3,097. This purchase was first revealed by on-chain analytics platform - Spot on chain - via a post on X (Formerly known as Twitter).

Sun’s latest purchase is just the latest in a long line of them, with wallet movements suggesting the exec may soon buy yet more ETH on the market.

Timing is key - Sun has a history of buying and accumulating ETH. Since February, for instance, the exec has bought nearly 362,751 ETH worth $1.11 billion at an average price of $3,047 through three wallets.

That’s not all either as at press time, TRON’s Founder had deposited USDT worth $45 million to Binance too. This deposit might precede yet another ETH purchase.

The timing of these purchases is worth looking at. Spot Ethereum ETFs are expected to launch any day now after prospective issuers submitted their amended S-1s to the SEC. Many expect their launch to have a positive impact on the altcoin’s price action over the long term.

Justin Sun seems to buying into that theory too, accumulating in the hope that ETH climbs higher on the charts after these ETFs are launched.

And, he isn’t the only one either, with another ETH whale - Golem - recently staking ETH worth $124.6 million.

Taken together, these whale actions can be seen as a sign that investors expect the altcoin to hit a new ATH over the course of the next few months.

U.K Law Commission says No to DAO-specific blanket law

Key points:

  • Observation made through a scoping paper on DAOs published by the Law Commission.

  • Paper highlighted the lack of consensus around the characteristics of DAOs.

News - United Kingdom’s Law Commission, a statutory body dedicated to proposing legal reforms, recently covered DAOs or Decentralized Autonomous Organizations and whether there is a need for a distinct law or entity to govern the same.

According to the Commission, the answer is a resounding no. Especially since even now, there is little consensus about what a DAO is and what its characteristics are. This, in light of the fact that most DAOs today are exceedingly complex and exist on a spectrum.

More recommendations - The statutory body found that as it stands, DAOs don’t require or warrant separate legal oversight. Instead, they should be accommodated within the scope of existing laws in place - Both financial and tax-related.

The Commission also recognized the inherent complexity of how DAOs operate.

Instead, the Law Commission recommended a review of the Companies Act of 2006 so that DAOs may be overseen as limited liability partnerships. It also called for an expansion to the scope of existing AML laws for such an oversight.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • Forsage was a DeFi platform operating on the Ethereum and Tron blockchains. It promoted itself as a profitable investment opportunity, one with a built-in reward system. The platform’s founders were later indicted for running a $340 million Ponzi scheme. A DoJ report found that over 80% of investors received fewer ETH than what they invested. 

  • Turkish crypto exchange Thodex shut down for an “emergency 6-hour maintenance period.” The shutdown lasted for over 5 days though and the exchange’s founder Faruk Fatih Özer escaped to Albania after defrauding 10K customers of over $2 billion. 

  • Bitclub Network was a mining investment platform that operated from 2014 to 2019. It claimed to offer investors shares in crypto mining pools, even though it never operated any. The platform also shared fraudulent earnings reports with its investors on a regular basis. In total, the platform conned $722 million in Bitcoin from its investors.

Top 3 coins of the day

Maker (MKR)

Key points:

  • MKR’s downtrend has been consistent since April, despite brief bouts of price appreciation.

  • Altcoin hiked by over 14% in under a week.

What you should know - MKR hit a local high of over $3,900 back in April. However, it has been all downhill from there, with the crypto trading at $2,411 at press time. While its downtrend hasn’t been as steep as the ones noted by other altcoins in the market, bearishness still remains the dominant sentiment for MKR. In the short-term, however, things might change for the better thanks to its 14% hike, with the same underlined by the alt’s bullish indicators. While the Moving Average was positioned just under the price candles, the MACD line crept just above the Signal line.

Bonk (BONK)

Key points:

  • At press time, BONK was trading at $0.00002264.

  • Altcoin fell by over 13% in 48 hours.

What you should know - Until a few days ago, the Solana-based memecoin was one of the market’s best performers. In fact, such was the scale of its performance that it flipped WIF in the rankings to emerge as the fourth-largest memecoin. That changed over the last 48 hours though as the crypto lost almost 14% of its value. It’s worth noting though that at the time of writing, the altcoin’s decline had stalled, something evidenced by the Bollinger Bands tightening around its price candles. The Chaikin Money Flow did drop below zero after the aforementioned decline though - A sign of positive capital outflows.

Akash Network (AKT) 

Key points:

  • AKT’s price action has been very volatile lately.

  • Altcoin hiked by almost 20% on the price charts, before losing 10% of its value.

What you should know - The 89th-largest crypto in the market, AKT has fallen significantly since its March and May levels. Its downtrend has stalled somewhat since mid-June though, with the altcoin noting consecutive periods of price appreciation and depreciation. Thanks to the same, AKT is now trading within a tight price band on the charts. While its indicators flashed bullish signs at press time, it remains too soon to say whether this can spur a reversal in market trends. In AKT’s case, while the Parabolic SAR’s dotted markers were found below the price candles, the RSI was close to equilibrium and pointed to buying and selling pressure evening out.

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