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- Fed decision could jolt Bitcoin higher
Fed decision could jolt Bitcoin higher
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Fed rate cut looms: Can Bitcoin turn liquidity into gains?
Key points:
Markets assign over 90% odds of a September Fed rate cut, a move that could inject liquidity and shift capital flows toward risk assets like Bitcoin.
Experts remain split: some see easing as bullish for crypto, while others warn it risks credibility and may echo 2024’s volatile whipsaw.
News - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a rate cut at its September 17 meeting, with the CME FedWatch tool showing confidence near 92–99%.
Inflation has moved closer to the 2% target, while weaker job openings and softer labor data have fueled expectations of easier policy. Yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries have already dipped as markets price in lower rates.
For Bitcoin, the prospect of easing could be a double-edged sword. On one hand, cheaper borrowing costs and lower bond yields make risk assets more attractive. Liquidity injections tend to flow toward speculative markets, and crypto exchanges, DeFi protocols, and token projects often benefit in expansionary environments.
Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek even told Bloomberg he expects a Q4 rally if the cut goes ahead, citing last year’s 57% surge during a similar easing cycle.
Why it may backfire - Skeptics caution that fundamentals don’t justify the move. GDP growth remains at 3.3% and core PCE inflation is holding near 2.9%, signaling resilience.
Analysts warn the Fed risks repeating 2024, when a surprise cut first pumped altcoins before a sharp reversal wiped out up to 80% of their value. “The market wants cuts, but the data says no,” noted Ivory Hill’s Kurt Altrichter, stressing credibility is on the line.
What to watch - September’s payrolls report and Trump’s tariff policies are added wild cards, with the economy balancing slowing labor markets against political shocks. Whether the Fed prioritizes market sentiment or hard data may determine if Bitcoin’s next chapter is a breakout or another trap.
SEC weighs post-quantum roadmap for crypto security
Key points:
A 74-page Post-Quantum Financial Infrastructure Framework (PQFIF) was submitted to the SEC’s Crypto Assets Task Force, outlining a migration to quantum-resistant standards and immediate defenses against “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later.”
Experts are split on timelines. Some warn Q-Day could arrive before 2030, while recent lab demos cracked only toy keys, underscoring urgency without immediate panic.
News - The SEC’s Crypto Assets Task Force is reviewing a proposal by Daniel Bruno Corvelo Costa to quantum-proof the U.S. digital asset ecosystem.
The framework urges automated vulnerability assessments, prioritizing high-risk systems such as institutional wallets and exchanges, and a phased migration that blends classical and post-quantum cryptography. It references NIST’s 2024 standards and flags Harvest Now, Decrypt Later risks that could expose trillions in digital assets if today’s encryption falls.
Proponents argue early action is needed to protect Bitcoin, Ether, and broader market integrity.
How close is Q-Day? - Security leaders give differing clocks. David Carvalho warns quantum computers could threaten ECDSA in under five years, with attackers likely to target large dormant wallets first.
Other analysts point to Vitalik Buterin’s estimate of a 20% chance that modern cryptography could break by 2030, urging preparation even if the near-term threat is limited.
Signals from research and policy - Researchers using IBM’s 133-qubit hardware recently cracked a 6-bit ECC key. It was a symbolic demo, not a threat to ECC-256 used by Bitcoin and Ethereum, but it shows hardware progress.
On the policy front, PQFIF aligns with industry moves such as El Salvador distributing state BTC across multiple addresses to reduce exposure, and Bitcoin devs floating a BIP to sunset legacy signatures in favor of quantum-resistant schemes.
What a migration could look like:
Continuous, automated quantum risk scans across exchanges and custodians
Restricting sends to legacy-vulnerable addresses, then freezing them on a long timetable
Rolling adoption of NIST-backed post-quantum algorithms with clear cutover milestones
If adopted, the SEC-reviewed roadmap could set a template for regulators and institutions to harden crypto before quantum capabilities scale.
Institutions pile into ETH as whales diverge, security watch rises
Key points:
Ethereum advocacy firm Etherealize raised $40 million led by Electric Capital and Paradigm to drive institutional adoption and build tokenization tooling. Public firms added roughly $1.2 billion of ETH this week.
On-chain shows divergent whale behavior and tightening exchange supply as treasuries and ETFs soak up coins, while researchers flag a new malware vector abusing Ethereum smart contracts.
News - Etherealize closed a $40 million round led by Electric Capital and Paradigm to market Ethereum to Wall Street and build institutional rails, including private settlement for tokenized assets and fixed income tooling. The raise lands in a week where public companies added about $1.26 billion of ETH, per Strategic ETH Reserve.
The Ether Machine accounted for 150,000 ETH (~$654 million), while BitMine Immersion Technologies disclosed over 150,000 ETH accumulated the prior week and a fresh $65 million spot buy executed via Galaxy’s OTC desk. BitMine says it now holds more than 1.5% of ETH supply and used no leverage.
Flows and supply: Setup into Q4 - Santiment data shows whales with 1,000–100,000 ETH have lifted holdings by 14% since April’s lows, while treasury balances approach ~3% of total supply. Exchange reserves sit at a three-year low, reinforcing the supply squeeze narrative.
Glassnode highlights a split: mega whales (≥10,000 ETH) accumulated ~2.2 million ETH through August before pausing, while 1,000–10,000 ETH wallets flipped back to accumulation with ~411,000 ETH.
Analysts argue sustained whale bids and stronger spot demand are needed to clear $5,000. Kaiko reported ETH spot volume briefly overtook BTC in early September, signaling rising institutional and retail interest.
BitMine’s “1971 moment” and price targets - BitMine chair Tom Lee reiterated a long-term $60,000 ETH target, calling Wall Street’s shift to crypto rails a “1971 moment” for Ethereum. Separate commentary pegs 44% odds of $6,000 by year-end, with Q4 catalysts including policy easing and continued treasury accumulation.
Security watch: Smart contracts abused in supply-chain malware - Researchers at ReversingLabs uncovered two malicious npm packages, “colortoolsv2” and “mimelib2,” that queried Ethereum smart contracts to fetch hidden URLs for second-stage malware, masking traffic as legitimate onchain activity. The campaign used fake GitHub repos and inflated stars, underscoring supply-chain risk for crypto developers.
XRP’s ETF hopes clash with supply pressure
Key points:
XRP bounced back above $2.80 after dipping to $2.70, weighed down by Ripple’s 100M token unlock and $1.9B in institutional liquidations.
Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin crossed $700M in supply and expanded into Africa, while October’s ETF decision looms as a potential turning point.
News - XRP faced heavy selling pressure this week, briefly sliding to $2.70, its lowest since July, before rebounding to $2.85. The drop followed Ripple’s routine 100 million token unlock, which coincided with fragile sentiment and nearly $500 million in whale transactions. Although most of the tokens were re-locked, the temporary supply surge unsettled traders.
Since July, institutional investors have liquidated close to $1.9 billion in XRP. Meanwhile, Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin supply has grown 16% over the past month to more than $700 million but has seen weaker activity in usage and trading volumes. On the technical side, whale accumulation of 340 million tokens has partially offset liquidations, while transaction volume on the XRP Ledger spiked above 2.1 billion tokens on September 1.
ETF catalyst ahead - Markets are now focused on October, when the SEC is expected to decide on Ripple’s ETF application. Analysts place approval odds above 80%, arguing that a green light could restore confidence and reverse recent losses. Resistance at $3.00 and $3.30 remains in focus for traders betting on a breakout.
Community impact - Beyond price action, Ripple’s regulatory battle left a mark. The “XRP Army” of tokenholders played a pivotal role in the SEC lawsuit, with Judge Torres citing their affidavits in her ruling that XRP itself is not a security. Ripple executives acknowledged the grassroots effort as invaluable in shaping the outcome.
More stories from the crypto ecosystem
Interesting facts
Galaxy Digital tokenizes its U.S. stock on Solana - Galaxy Digital has become the latest to embrace blockchain innovation by tokenizing its registered U.S. common stock on the Solana blockchain, granting direct legal and economic ownership to investors, though full AMM integration awaits SEC approval.
BitMEX’s pre‑pardon U.S. lobbying expenditure revealed - Recently de-pardoned crypto exchange BitMEX invested heavily in U.S. lobbying efforts prior to its executive pardon: a startling look at how political influence intersects with regulatory relief in the crypto industry.
U.S. markets cleared for spot BTC & ETH trading - In a seismic shift, the SEC and CFTC have given the green light for spot trading of Bitcoin and Ethereum on major U.S. exchanges like NYSE and Nasdaq, marking a turning point for on-ramp accessibility and institutional adoption.
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Top 3 coins of the day
Ethereum (ETH)
Key points:
ETH was trading at $4,385 at press time, down 1.5% in the last 24 hours.
The Madrid Ribbon stayed green, while the RSI hovered near 52, showing a neutral trend despite the pullback.
What you should know:
Ethereum slipped from $4,484 to $4,359 before closing near $4,385, with daily volume at 6.18K, lower than prior peaks. Despite the dip, the Madrid Ribbon remained green, indicating broader trend strength as ETH trades above layered support around $3,640–$4,080. The RSI stayed at 52, confirming balanced momentum without signs of overextension. Resistance is present near $4,450–$4,480, while the ribbon zone provides strong support to monitor. Beyond technicals, sentiment was reinforced by sustained ETF inflows totaling $533M in a single day, alongside whale accumulation of 138K ETH worth over $500M in a week. Looking ahead, anticipation of the Fusaka hard fork in November, focused on scaling improvements, adds to long-term optimism. Holding above $4,080 will be key for ETH to aim toward $4,800.
Cronos (CRO)
Key points:
CRO was last seen at $0.272, down 3.3% in the past day.
The Supertrend stayed in buy mode, while the DMI showed +DI well above -DI with a strong ADX reading near 52.
What You Should Know:
Cronos fell from $0.281 to $0.266 before closing near $0.272, giving back some of its late-August gains. Despite the pullback, the Supertrend indicator remained in buy territory with support around $0.228, while the DMI highlighted a strong uptrend as +DI stayed dominant over -DI. Volume reached 3.97M, notably lower than the spikes that drove the recent rally, suggesting waning short-term momentum. Resistance is now seen near $0.280–$0.285, with the $0.228 zone serving as critical support. Beyond the chart, optimism has been supported by ETF speculation after Trump Media’s proposed fund allocated a share to CRO, the July POS v6 upgrade that boosted DeFi activity, and corporate adoption moves including Trump Media’s $6.4B purchase. For now, sustaining trade above $0.23 is vital to keep the broader bullish trend intact.
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)
Key points:
VIRTUAL was last seen trading at $1.07, slipping 4.9% over the past day.
The token stayed below the 9-day SMA, while the Awesome Oscillator remained in negative territory with persistent red bars.
What you should know:
VIRTUAL dropped from $1.13 to $1.06 before closing near $1.07, signaling continued downside pressure. Price action stayed under the 9-day SMA at $1.11, reflecting weak short-term momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator maintained red bars below the zero line, confirming that bearish momentum has yet to fade. Daily volume stood at 5.35M, roughly in line with recent sessions, indicating no major shift in trading activity. Resistance is currently seen around $1.12, while $1.00 serves as a psychological support level to monitor. On the fundamentals side, the Genesis upgrade introduced new staking tiers to encourage long-term holding, while USDC integration for AI agents expanded the protocol’s transactional utility. Still, with technicals tilted bearish, holding above $1.00 will be critical to prevent further losses in the near term.
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