Hack, war, sanctions sink Iran’s crypto

August 27, 2025

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Iran’s crypto flows plunge as war, hack, and sanctions bite

Key points

  • Iranian crypto flows fell 11% to $3.7B between January and July 2025, hit by conflict, the $90M Nobitex hack, and Tether freezes.

  • Users shifted from USDT to DAI on Polygon as blacklisted wallets deepened liquidity shortages.

News - Iran’s digital asset economy has been rattled by a mix of geopolitical and financial shocks this year.

According to TRM Labs, flows involving Iranian entities dropped to $3.7 billion in the first seven months of 2025, an 11% decline compared with 2024. The steepest downturns came in June and July, when inflows collapsed by 50% and 76% year-on-year.

The slump coincided with a 12-day conflict with Israel beginning June 13, which triggered power blackouts across Iran and forced government-imposed service restrictions.

Days later, on June 18, Nobitex, the country’s largest exchange, handling over 87% of domestic transactions, lost $90 million in a cyberattack claimed by pro-Israel group Predatory Sparrow. Liquidity evaporated as anxious users pulled funds toward offshore platforms.

Tether freeze deepens liquidity crunch - In July, Tether froze 42 Iran-linked wallets, many tied to Nobitex and sanctioned groups. The move cut off key access to stablecoins, forcing users to switch into DAI on the Polygon network. While USDT had been the backbone of Iranian trading, the freeze exposed the fragility of local infrastructure and reliance on censorship-prone tokens.

Regulation and resilience - Despite the setbacks, crypto continues to serve as a hedge for inflation and a vehicle for capital flight. Outbound flows remain stable as Iranians use digital assets to bypass banking restrictions.

In August, the government introduced a new capital gains tax law treating crypto like gold and real estate, signaling efforts to regulate the sector. Still, TRM reports that crypto is also used to procure drone parts, AI chips, and other sanctioned goods, underlining how critical yet vulnerable Iran’s crypto market has become.

Ethereum rotation heats up as whales buy $456M in ETH

Key points:

  • Nine whale addresses acquired $456 million in ETH from custodians, highlighting a profit rotation out of Bitcoin into altcoins.

  • ETH outpaced BTC during the week, up about 11% versus Bitcoin’s 1.6% decline, as exchange outflows and institutional rotation supported momentum toward the $4,623 to $5,000 zone.

News - Ethereum drew fresh attention as big wallets and institutions shifted capital from Bitcoin. Arkham flagged nine “massive” addresses that purchased a combined $456 million in ETH sourced from BitGo and Galaxy Digital. Nansen’s Nicolai Sondergaard framed the move as a natural rotation, with investors locking in gains from Bitcoin and redeploying into assets with perceived upside.

Willy Woo noted ETH’s daily inflows near $0.9 billion, now approaching Bitcoin’s, coinciding with accumulation by BitMine, an emerging ETH treasury heavyweight. The rotation narrative was also reinforced by a recent transfer where a large Bitcoin holder exited billions in BTC and built sizable spot and perpetual ETH exposure on Hyperliquid.

Smart money and altcoins - On Nansen, top “smart money” accounts accumulated large caps such as Chainlink, Ethena, and Lido DAO. That said, the biggest ticket remains ETH itself, including a dormant whale returning to buy roughly $28 million. LINK interest has been aided by a fresh ETF filing, but the dominant flow still sits with Ether.

Market context - While Bitcoin hovered above $111,000 with sub-1% gains over 24 hours, broader indexes rose more than 3%. ETH showed relative strength in recent sessions, supported by one of the largest exchange outflow days since July and reports of institutions rotating close to $892 million from BTC into ETH.

What’s next for ETH - Fundstrat’s Tom Lee sees room for $5,500 in the near term, with some analysts eyeing higher targets into year-end. Others caution that overbought signals could invite consolidation. For now, the focus is on whether buyers can clear resistance around $4,623, then $4,749, and the psychological $5,000 mark.

Trump Media’s $6.4B deal sends CRO soaring, but risks loom

Key points:

  • Cronos (CRO) surged more than 40% after Trump Media, Crypto.com, and Yorkville launched a $6.4 billion treasury venture.

  • Analysts flagged CRO’s overbought signals and crowded long positions, warning of potential liquidation risks.

News - U.S. President Donald Trump’s media company unveiled its latest crypto move, announcing a $6.4 billion Cronos treasury partnership with Crypto.com and Yorkville Acquisition. The plan includes $1 billion in CRO tokens, $200 million in cash, $220 million in warrants, and a $5 billion equity credit line.

Trump Media will also roll out a CRO-based rewards system on Truth Social and purchase $105 million in CRO, while Crypto.com takes a $50 million equity stake in Trump Media.

The announcement triggered a sharp rally in CRO, which climbed from $0.16 to above $0.23, its highest level since May 2022. Trading volume soared toward $1 billion, pushing market capitalization past $7.8 billion.

Eric Trump is also scheduled to travel to Asia this month, with stops at Bitcoin Asia in Hong Kong and Metaplanet’s shareholder meeting in Japan, highlighting the family’s deepening crypto involvement.

Overheated momentum - Despite the rally, market signals hint at fragility. CRO’s relative strength index (RSI) surged above 80, deep into overbought territory. Coinglass data shows a spike in the long/short ratio as traders piled into bullish positions, leaving the market exposed to sudden liquidations if prices turn.

CRO vs. Bitcoin - While Bitcoin steadied near $111,000, CRO has vastly outperformed. The CRO/BTC pair has jumped 165% since July, with analysts crediting Trump-linked catalysts, Cronos v2 upgrades, and plans for a US-compliant stablecoin in Q3.

Some suggest CRO could target $0.27–$0.33 if momentum holds, but warn political hype and retail euphoria could amplify volatility.

What’s next? - CRO’s near-term outlook hinges on whether buyers can sustain inflows without triggering a correction. For now, the Trump-Cronos tie-up has placed CRO firmly in the spotlight, but the market remains sensitive to sharp reversals.

Venezuela turns to stablecoins as Bolívar collapses

Key points:

  • Venezuela’s inflation surged to 229% by May 2025, with the Bolívar losing more than 70% of its value since October, driving citizens to USDT and other stablecoins.

  • Chainalysis ranked Venezuela 13th in global adoption, with crypto usage rising 110% year-over-year, making digital assets part of daily payments, salaries, and savings.

News - As Venezuela’s economy crumbles, crypto has moved from the margins to the mainstream. The Bolívar’s 70% plunge and triple-digit inflation have left citizens turning to digital assets as a lifeline. Stablecoins such as USDT are now widely used for shopping in family-owned stores, national retail chains, and even for salary payments.

According to Chainalysis, Venezuela ranked 13th globally in its 2024 Crypto Adoption Index, with a 110% surge in activity. Platforms like Binance and Airtm process routine transactions, while several universities have introduced blockchain courses, embedding digital finance into education.

Sanctions and suppression - The shift has not been without hurdles. U.S. sanctions have restricted Venezuelans’ access to platforms and banks, with Binance curbing services tied to sanctioned entities.

Meanwhile, the Maduro government cracked down on black-market exchange rate websites and suspended independent inflation reporting, moves that further pushed citizens into stablecoins to safeguard their savings.

Remittances and resilience - Crypto-based remittances are also rising, accounting for $461 million, or 9% of the $5.4 billion sent to Venezuela in 2023. Families bypass costly traditional transfer services, instead relying on stablecoins to move money across borders.

Despite inconsistent government policy and the failed petro experiment, digital assets have become an essential hedge against inflation, low wages, and currency shortages.

What’s next? - With shops, salaries, and savings now increasingly tied to crypto, Venezuela offers a case study in necessity-driven adoption. The country’s experience shows how digital assets can evolve into parallel financial infrastructure when fiat and institutions falter.

Did you know?

  • As of Q2 2024, the share of Bitcoin payments processed via the Lightning Network at CoinGate more than doubled to 16.6%, up from just 6.5% in Q2 2022, highlighting rapid growth in real‑world Lightning adoption.

  • On July 4, 2025, eight Satoshi‑era Bitcoin wallets, each holding 10,000 BTC, activated after 14+ years, moving a total of 80,000 BTC (worth over $8.6 billion). The transfers occurred to SegWit addresses, likely as a security upgrade rather than a market sell‑off.

  • Around 20% of Zcash coins have been stored in fully "shielded" (private) pools as of July 2025. Zcash remains the only major blockchain with default zero-knowledge privacy, and only about one-fifth of its total coins are currently held in shielded (encrypted) addresses.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Solana (SOL)

Key points:

  • SOL traded at $204, marking a 4.38% daily gain after retesting the $200 region.

  • The Supertrend stayed in buy territory while the EWO held positive momentum at +8.01, supported by higher trading volumes.

What you should know:

Solana’s rally pushed it back above the $200 threshold after a volatile August, with intraday highs touching $205. The Supertrend indicator continues to signal a buy trend, placing strong support near the $199–200 range. Meanwhile, the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) has remained firmly in green territory, reflecting growing bullish pressure, while volume activity climbed to 3.08 million SOL, higher than July’s consolidation levels. Beyond the charts, a key driver has been Robinhood’s launch of micro futures for SOL, which expanded retail derivatives access and added liquidity to the market. At the same time, capital rotation out of Bitcoin and Ethereum has favored high-beta altcoins like Solana. Traders will now watch whether SOL can maintain support at $200 while testing the $210 zone as its next resistance.

Key points:

  • RAY traded at $3.58, posting a 3.88% gain on the day while holding firm above its 9-day SMA at $3.40.

  • RSI hovered at 56.80 in neutral-bullish territory, supported by steady trading volumes of 2.85M.

What you should know:

Raydium climbed to $3.69 at its intraday high before settling near $3.58, sustaining its uptrend from June’s lows. The 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has acted as dynamic support, with candles staying above it since mid-August. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained stable in the mid-50s, signaling moderate bullish momentum, and daily volume held at 2.85 million. On the fundamentals side, Raydium’s $200M token buyback program has already removed millions of RAY from circulation, introducing deflationary pressure. In parallel, its role as Solana’s leading DEX, processing more than $40B in July volume, has reinforced confidence across the ecosystem. Traders now look to see if RAY can defend $3.40 support while challenging the $3.70 resistance zone in the sessions ahead.

Jupiter (JUP)

Key points:

  • JUP traded at $0.49, climbing 3.65% on the day while holding above its recent $0.46 support zone.

  • The Bollinger Bands placed resistance near $0.51, while the SQZMOM printed a taller red bar, signaling renewed bearish momentum despite rising volume.

What you should know:

Jupiter’s price tested an intraday high before settling near $0.49, extending its range-bound movement between $0.45 and $0.53. The Bollinger midline at $0.50 continues to cap upside attempts, while the lower band near $0.46 has acted as strong support. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator (SQZMOM) shifted slightly, with the latest red bar taller than the previous one, reflecting a mild uptick in bearish pressure. Meanwhile, daily trading volume spiked to 7.57 million, suggesting heightened participation. Recent sentiment has been influenced by the anticipated August 28 token unlock of 53.47M JUP alongside Jupiter’s ecosystem expansion, such as the Jupiter Lend beta launch and broader Solana DeFi activity. Traders now eye the $0.50–0.51 resistance zone for a breakout, while $0.46 remains a crucial support level to monitor.

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