Harvard economist crushed as Bitcoin rallies

August 20, 2025

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Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff eats his words as Bitcoin surges

Key points:

  • Kenneth Rogoff admits his $100 Bitcoin prediction was wrong, citing three miscalculations.

  • Industry voices highlight how decentralization and adoption have outpaced traditional economic models.

News - Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff has publicly backtracked on his 2018 forecast that Bitcoin would fall to $100 rather than soar to $100,000. In a post on X, Rogoff acknowledged three key missteps: he was too optimistic about the US adopting “sensible” crypto regulation, he did not appreciate Bitcoin’s role in the roughly twenty-trillion dollar underground economy, and he did not anticipate regulators, including the “regulator in chief”, personally holding large amounts of crypto.

Since his prediction, Bitcoin has rallied more than 1,000%, recently trading above $115,000. Yet Rogoff has not turned bullish, cautioning that its long-term value still hinges on regulatory tolerance.

Industry reaction - Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued Rogoff “failed to imagine that a decentralized project without a single corporate sponsor could succeed at scale.” VanEck’s Matthew Sigel went further, placing Rogoff ninth in a tongue-in-cheek “Bitcoin Hall of Shame.”

Institutions shift the tide - Harvard University’s endowment has invested $116 million into BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, underscoring how establishment players are embracing crypto. Broader institutional momentum has helped fuel Bitcoin’s parabolic climb this cycle.

Policy lens - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman recently urged balanced rules and practical engagement, even suggesting staff hold de minimis crypto to understand functionality.

The clash between Rogoff’s reversal and the wave of institutional adoption highlights how quickly narratives can flip, and why the debate over Bitcoin’s legitimacy is far from settled.

Bitcoin wobbles near $113K as retail turns ultra bearish

Key points:

  • Bitcoin hovers around $113,000 with weak bounce signals and ETF outflows of $645 million.

  • Retail sentiment has flipped to “ultra bearish,” though analysts see historical parallels to prior bull-cycle pullbacks.

News - Bitcoin continues to struggle for direction after dipping to $112,600, its lowest level since August 3. A brief rebound stalled below $114,000 as volumes thinned and moving averages turned lower, signaling fragile momentum. Analysts warn that unless BTC can reclaim the 50-day SMA near $116,000, downside risks remain in play.

The pressure coincided with sharp outflows from Bitcoin ETFs. Fidelity’s FBTC shed $246.9 million on Tuesday, helping drive $645 million in redemptions over two sessions. Ethereum funds also saw more than $600 million withdrawn. Analysts attribute the pullback to tactical de-risking ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on August 22, where investors expect clarity on rate policy.

Retail panic, short‑term holders accumulate - Blockchain analytics firm Santiment flagged a surge in “ultra bearish” retail sentiment as social media negativity spiked to its highest since June. Historically, such crowd capitulation has preceded rebounds. Short-term holders also absorbed over 43,000 BTC during the selloff, even as they accepted losses, a setup that previously marked local bottoms.

Institutions and long-term outlook - Despite near-term turbulence, voices like SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci remain bullish, predicting Bitcoin could hit $180,000 to $200,000 by the end of 2025. He sees demand dynamics and ETF adoption by major institutions as key drivers. At the same time, retail accessibility is shrinking, with about 1 million wallets holding a full BTC and less than 4 million coins realistically available for retail acquisition, according to CoinGecko.

While the Fear & Greed Index has slipped to 44 (“Fear”), some analysts note that prior cycles saw pullbacks of about 36% in 2017 and 23% in 2021 before new highs. Whether history rhymes again may hinge on Powell’s tone at Jackson Hole.

From attack fears to Trump hype: Dogecoin’s wild week

Key points:

  • DOGE faces pressure after Qubic’s 51% attack plans, even as whales accumulate.

  • Trump-linked Thumzup Media’s $153.8M Dogehash deal aims to create the world’s largest DOGE miner.

News - Dogecoin slipped to around $0.21 after the Qubic blockchain community voted to direct hashpower toward DOGE, raising the risk of a potential 51% attack. The move comes just days after Qubic claimed responsibility for disrupting Monero’s network, a move widely reported as a staged media stunt. Traders reacted with caution, sending DOGE futures open interest down 8% while spot volumes spiked to double their average during the selloff.

Trump family enters Dogecoin mining - Amid the jitters, Thumzup Media, backed by Donald Trump Jr., announced a $153.8 million all-stock deal to acquire Dogehash Technologies. The merger will form Dogehash Technologies Holdings, Inc., to be listed on Nasdaq under the ticker XDOG. Dogehash operates 2,500 Scrypt ASIC miners across North America and plans further expansion with renewable-energy-powered data centers. The deal also integrates Dogecoin’s Layer-2 DogeOS protocol, aimed at boosting mining yields.

Whales buy, retail sells - On-chain data shows large holders absorbed more than 300 million DOGE during the correction, while short-term investors capitulated with over 270 million DOGE sold at a loss in mid-August. Experts say this signals a transfer from “weak hands” to long-term believers.

Still in a bull trend? - Despite near-term turbulence, analysts like Cantonese Cat argue DOGE’s higher-timeframe charts remain intact, with the 20-week and 20-month moving averages holding firm. He views the recent double bottom pattern as evidence of demand at support. For now, DOGE trades in a range between $0.21 support and $0.22 resistance, with the next breakout likely to dictate direction.

China considers yuan stablecoin in major policy pivot

Key points:

  • Beijing is set to review a roadmap for yuan-backed stablecoins, marking a sharp reversal from its 2021 crypto ban.

  • Pilots in Hong Kong and Shanghai could accelerate yuan internationalisation as the U.S. cements its dominance in stablecoins.

News: Beijing signals reversal - China’s State Council will review a plan later this month that could legalize yuan-backed stablecoins, according to Reuters. If approved, it would end over a decade of restrictions on crypto activity, capped by the 2021 ban on trading and mining. The roadmap, expected to be unveiled at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin on August 31–September 1, outlines regulatory guidelines, usage targets, and risk controls.

Hong Kong and Shanghai lead rollout - Officials see Hong Kong and Shanghai as key testing grounds. Hong Kong’s new stablecoin ordinance, effective August 1, positions it as one of the first jurisdictions with clear rules for fiat-backed tokens. Shanghai is also setting up an international hub for digital yuan operations and has been tasked with preparing local regulators for stablecoin adoption.

Global backdrop and U.S. pressure - The push comes as dollar-pegged stablecoins dominate 99% of a $247–288 billion market, now central to global crypto trading and cross-border payments. President Donald Trump has prioritized stablecoin regulation through the GENIUS Act, giving the U.S. a clear head start. Chinese exporters already rely heavily on dollar-backed tokens, a trend Beijing sees as undercutting the yuan’s role in trade.

Capital controls remain the hurdle - Analysts note that yuan-backed stablecoins would remain under state oversight, unlike decentralized cryptocurrencies. While the move could boost the yuan’s visibility in Asia and beyond, strict capital controls may still limit its global reach. Still, PBOC advisors, including Huang Yiping, say an offshore yuan stablecoin in Hong Kong is “a possibility.”

Interesting facts

  • The U.S. Treasury Secretary is positioning stablecoins as a key buyer of U.S. Treasuries, targeting stablecoin issuers like Tether and Circle to help absorb rising short-term debt, with the market expected to grow from ~$250 billion to a projected $2 trillion.

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman proposed that central bank employees be allowed to own small, “de minimis” amounts of crypto, aiming to deepen firsthand regulatory understanding, comparing the insight gained to learning to ski rather than studying it from books.

  • Crypto whales are actively accumulating memecoins. The Little Pepe (LILPEPE) presale has exceeded $20 million, built on a Layer‑2 blockchain. This comes alongside strong whale interest in Dogecoin, Pepe, Pudgy Penguins, SPX6900, and Bonk.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Aerodrome Finance (AERO)

Key points:

  • At the time of writing, AERO traded at $1.32, up 9.40% in the past 24 hours, outperforming a broadly weaker market.

  • Price held above the Bollinger midline while CMF remained positive at 0.13, signaling capital inflows and continued buying interest.

What you should know:

AERO extended its bullish momentum, with candles staying firmly above the Bollinger mid-band and volatility expanding as the upper band stretched toward $1.60. Volume stayed healthy, reflecting strong demand, while CMF readings confirmed sustained inflows into the asset. This setup pointed to robust market participation even after a multi-day surge. On the news front, AERO gained traction after Coinbase integrated Aerodrome’s DEX into its app on August 8, unlocking access to 100M+ users. This boosted liquidity and cemented AERO’s position as the leading DEX on Coinbase’s Base chain. Derivatives inflows also rose, with open interest topping $100M, showing leveraged optimism. For now, the key level to monitor is $1.25 support; holding above it could keep bulls in control for a potential retest of the $1.46 resistance zone.

Key points:

  • AAVE was last seen trading at $290, up 4.89% in the past 24 hours despite broader market softness.

  • Price sat beneath the 9‑day SMA, while the Awesome Oscillator printed smaller red bars and volume stayed light.

What you should know:

AAVE bounced intraday but remained under its 9‑day SMA, which acted as near‑term overhead pressure. The Awesome Oscillator’s red bars shortened, indicating that bearish momentum had eased even as it stayed negative. Turnover was modest versus earlier August spikes, suggesting a cautious recovery rather than a high‑conviction surge. On the catalyst side, AaveDAO’s approval to license V3 for Kraken’s Ink L2 with a 5% revenue share supported sentiment, while anticipation around an upcoming Aave V4 public testnet added a speculative bid. For confirmation, bulls need to reclaim the 9‑day SMA near $303; if rejected, $289–$290 and the recent swing low near $276 are the supports to watch.

Toncoin (TON)

Key points:

  • At press time, TON was trading at $3.28, marking a 1.7% daily gain.

  • The Parabolic SAR stayed above the candles, while the RSI dipped below 50 and volumes remained muted.

What You Should Know:

Toncoin’s rebound came as it slightly outperformed the wider crypto market. The Parabolic SAR above price reflected ongoing downside pressure, even though the latest daily candle turned green. RSI slipped into the sub-50 zone, pointing to fading momentum, while volumes stayed low, suggesting limited conviction behind the bounce. On the fundamental side, news of Verb Technology’s $558M plan to accumulate TON as a treasury reserve asset added a strong institutional narrative, bolstering long-term confidence. Additional developments like Ledger Live’s staking integration improved retail access. TON now faces immediate resistance near $3.39, with support lying around $3.20. A decisive close above resistance could reignite bullish sentiment.

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