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- Hayes calls $3.4M BTC
Hayes calls $3.4M BTC
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Bitcoin at $112K, but Arthur Hayes predicts $3.4M by 2028
Key points:
Bitcoin dipped, but institutional and corporate demand has driven price pressure so far.
On-chain data seemed to be hinting at accumulation, and by extension, a potential rebound.
News - Bitcoin dipped to $112,491.92 at press time, marking an 8.8% decline from its 13 August high of $123.8K. Needless to say, this has put investor confidence to the test. On-chain metrics, however, suggest the market may still have underlying strength. In fact, former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to hit $3.4 million by 2028.
Hayes and Saylor on Bitcoin’s way ahead - Hayes is basing this forecast on potential yield curve control policies from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. This, he believes, could lead to extensive money creation and what he describes as a “once in a century shift in the global monetary system.”
Hayes predicts this could redirect $34 trillion in global deposits, including Eurodollars and emerging market retail funds, into compliant stablecoins, creating unprecedented demand for U.S. Treasury bills.
Echoing similar sentiments, Michael Saylor, Strategy’s executive chairman, also claimed that Bitcoin is expected to rebound towards the year-end as growing corporate and institutional interest tightens supply.
Companies are reportedly buying more Bitcoin than miners produce, around 1,755 BTC daily compared to miners’ 900. All while ETFs are acquiring an additional 1,430 BTC per day in 2025. This strong demand is creating upward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
What does on-chain data suggest? - Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has turned negative, signaling undervaluation, while whale activity has been steady and exchange reserves continue to decline.
Network health indicators, such as a 38% drop in the NVT ratio, could allude to stronger transaction activity relative to market cap - A sign of more sustainable growth. Sentiment has been rebounding from deep negatives too, with Open Interest climbing by 1.47% to $41.97 billion, showing traders are holding positions despite volatility.
Vitalik Buterin defends Base L2 amid centralization criticism
Key points:
Regulatory concerns have arisen over centralized sequencing in Base L2.
Base L2’s TVL has climbed from $500M to nearly $5 billion.
News - Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has addressed concerns over Base, a Layer 2 solution, amid claims it could be “centralized” due to Coinbase operating as the primary sequencer. Critics believe that this could classify Base as an unlicensed securities exchange.
However, Buterin pushed back. He emphasized,
“Base does not have custody over your funds; they cannot steal funds or stop you from withdrawing funds. The security that L2s provide reflects concrete properties that protect you as a user from being rugged.”
He also claimed that the L2’s security mechanisms provide concrete protections, ensuring users are safeguarded even if Base shuts down.
A growing concern - SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce raised concerns that centralized transaction sequencing could potentially classify Layer 2 networks as exchanges, subjecting them to SEC oversight. However, she also clarified that non-securities asset matching falls outside the SEC’s jurisdiction.
Additionally, Base co-founder Jesse Pollak noted sequencers only order transactions, not match trades. On the other hand, Coinbase’s Paul Grewal likened Base to AWS, hosting code without acting as an exchange.
Coinbase’s Base L2 growth and more - Launched in August 2023, Coinbase’s Base L2 has quickly grown, with the TVL rising from $500M to nearly $5 billion since early 2024. Outpacing Ethereum mainnet in fees and revenue, Base recorded $146K in fees and $141.7K revenue, while L1 revenues fell by 92%. Buterin rated it a “stage 1” L2, noting that user assets remain safe.
Altcoin Season Index at 71, but will weak ETH rotation affect it?
Key points:
The wider crypto market retraced to its early September levels, with the F&G Index flashing signs of fear.
ASTER surged by 200% after CZ’s tweet, but its TVL dropped sharply after.
News - With just a week left in Q4, the crypto market has retraced to its early September levels. The Fear & Greed Index has dipped back into “fear,” with Bitcoin trading only 4% above its $108K monthly open.
The total market cap, at press time, was hovering at around $3.89 trillion - Roughly 3% above its $3.70 trillion base. Altcoins are taking the brunt of the pullback, with the ex-BTC market cap (TOTAL2) down 4.43%, nearly twice Bitcoin’s losses, after facing rejection at key resistance. Meanwhile, the altcoin index stood at 71 - A sign that altseason may be underway.
Altcoins falter as BTC holds ground - Unlike Q2 and early Q3, when Ethereum dominance (ETH.D) surged to 15% and TOTAL2 (altcoin market cap ex-BTC) spiked 30%, this time ETH.D is trending down, signaling weaker rotation into altcoins. Since its mid-August peak, ETH.D has steadily declined, while TOTAL2 topped $1.73 trillion, meaning altcoins aren’t benefiting from ETH inflows as before.
Even with the ETH.D sidelined, the Altcoin Season Index briefly hit 100 after ASTER’s launch. However, it soon fell to 69, just 10% above September’s open, showing gains were largely speculative. BTC.D rose by 1.01% while the ETH.D dropped 2.86%, signaling rotation back into BTC.
What’s the catch? - Celebrity-driven pumps, like ASTER’s 200% surge after CZ’s tweet, have proven volatile so far. The token hit $1.67 with $2.26 billion volume, and yet TVL fell from $2 billion to $450M in 48 hours.
Therefore, the altcoin market may be showing signs of early fatigue, with hype-driven tokens like ASTER offering short-term gains. True potential lies in utility-focused projects.
With BTC steady, fading ETH rotation, and a capped TOTAL2, Q4 might favor early positioning in high-utility, AI-powered, community-backed altcoins over speculative pumps.
CFTC explores stablecoins as collateral to boost U.S derivatives markets
Key points:
Crypto leaders from Circle, Tether, Ripple, Coinbase, and Crypto.com support the initiative.
Initiative builds on the CFTC’s crypto sprint and CEO Forum recommendations.
News - The U.S Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is exploring the use of tokenized assets, including stablecoins, as collateral in derivatives markets. Acting Chair Caroline Pham announced that the agency will consult stakeholders and is seeking public feedback on the plan until 20 October.
If implemented, stablecoins like USDC and USDT could be treated similarly to traditional collateral, paving the way for broader adoption in regulated trading. The move could democratize access to complex derivatives markets, allowing retail traders to leverage assets they already hold.
Industry reactions - The plan has already received strong support from crypto leaders. Executives from Circle, Tether, Ripple, Coinbase, and Crypto.com have highlighted its potential to lower costs, reduce risk, and unlock 24/7 global liquidity.
Circle’s Heath Tarbert, for instance, claimed that the GENIUS Act allows licensed U.S stablecoins to operate in traditional markets, while Coinbase’s Paul Grewal emphasized that tokenized collateral could enhance U.S derivatives competitiveness.
Ripple’s Jack McDonald added that clear rules around valuation, custody, and settlement would improve efficiency, transparency, and trust in regulated markets.
More details - This initiative builds on the CFTC’s ongoing efforts to integrate digital assets into mainstream finance. It follows the Crypto CEO Forum and the agency’s “crypto sprint” to implement recommendations from the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets.
More stories from the crypto ecosystem
Did you know?
The world’s first central bank digital currency (CBDC) didn’t come from China but from a small island nation. In 2020, The Bahamas launched the Sand Dollar, a digital version of its national currency, making it the pioneer in rolling out a fully operational CBDC.
Before Ethereum’s major upgrade in 2022, a single transaction on its network could use more energy than an average U.S household consumes in an entire week. This changed dramatically with the switch to Proof-of-Stake, which slashed Ethereum’s energy usage by more than 99%, making it far more sustainable.
Charles Hoskinson, one of the original co-founders of Ethereum, left the project early on due to differing visions for its future. While Ethereum focused on rapid development and widespread adoption, Hoskinson wanted a blockchain grounded in formal research and academic rigor. This vision led him to create Cardano.
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Top 3 coins of the day
Binance Coin (BNB)
Key points:
BNB’s price was trading above $1k after a hike of over 8% over the past week.
Signs of entering the overbought zone indicate a potential upcoming pullback.
What you should know:
BNB has reclaimed four-digit territory, currently trading at $1,033.33 after a 2.92% gain over the past 24 hours. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) supports this bullish momentum, standing at 68.87, just below the overbought threshold it recently retracted from, signaling strong buying interest.
Traders should watch the key resistance level at $1,033.19 closely. A break above this point could push BNB into the overbought zone, which might trigger a short-term pullback. On the other hand, if the price sustains momentum between the support at $950.51 and the resistance at $1,033.19, BNB could continue its upward trajectory, suggesting continued bullish conditions in the near term.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
Key points:
At the time of writing, HYPE was trading at $44.38.
HYPE saw a double-digit drop of $19.6% over the past week.
What you should know:
Hyperliquid has emerged as the leading blockchain in network fee generation over the past 24 hours, surpassing major competitors such as BNB Chain, Solana, and Tron.
Despite this surge in network usage, Hyperliquid’s token, HYPE, was trading at $44.38, down 7.75% in the past 24 hours. Technical indicators point to bearish pressure: the MACD line is below the signal line, accompanied by a red histogram beneath the neutral line, suggesting that bears currently have the upper hand.
For HYPE to shift momentum and enter a bullish phase, the token needs a significant upward move, with key resistance lying between $44.79 and $51.81. Sustained trading above this range could signal renewed bullish sentiment and potentially attract more buying interest.
Aster (ASTER)
Key points:
ASTER’s upward trend continued with a hike of 2000% over the past week.
Technical indicators suggested that bullish momentum has been dominant.
What you should know:
ASTER has experienced a staggering surge of 2,574.58% over the past week, marking one of the most remarkable rallies in the crypto market. In the past 24 hours alone, the token jumped 35.07%, highlighting continued bullish momentum.
Technical indicators support this optimism. As per the 1-hour time frame, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is in the positive zone, sitting above the neutral level at 0.05, suggesting strong buying pressure and favoring bulls.
However, such rapid gains also raise caution. With prices climbing quickly, a pullback remains possible, especially if ASTER fails to sustain levels above the $2.40 resistance mark. Traders should watch this key level closely, as a break below it could signal profit-taking and temporary bearish pressure.
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