Is Bitcoin nearing a liquidity crunch?

November 25, 2025

In partnership with

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

BlackRock’s Bitcoin transfer fuels liquidity warnings as market searches for a bottom

Key points:

  • BlackRock shifted $400 million in BTC to Coinbase Prime as IBIT logged over $2 billion in monthly outflows, raising fresh concerns about tightening US liquidity.

  • On-chain data shows rising spot volume, declining open interest, and historic supply rotation, reinforcing the case for a potential November bottom.

News - Bitcoin markets turned cautious after BlackRock quietly moved 4,471 BTC to Coinbase Prime, just hours before the US PPI report. This transfer landed during the worst month of outflows for BlackRock’s IBIT, which shed more than $2 billion. 

Arkham data also showed the firm’s tracked wallet falling from a $117 billion peak to $78.4 billion, a drop of over 30% across the month.

Analysts split sharply on the implications. Crypto Rover warned the transfer could intensify selling pressure, while VanEck’s Matthew Sigel attributed Bitcoin’s weakness to tightening US liquidity and widening credit spreads. Cathie Wood pushed back by arguing that the squeeze is temporary and likely to unwind soon.

Despite headlines about “record outflows,” ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted that IBIT had never experienced outflows before, meaning its “record” is only 3% of AUM. He stressed that 97% of holders remain in place.

Market signals point to bottom formation - Several on-chain indicators suggest November may have marked a significant market floor. The Whale vs Retail Delta has flipped to historically strong whale dominance for the first time. 

Rising spot volume on Binance, which stayed above $10 billion throughout the month, and a $5 billion decline in open interest indicate a reset from leverage toward spot accumulation.

More than 8% of the total Bitcoin supply also changed hands during the week, one of the biggest rotations in BTC history. Semler Scientific’s Joe Burnett noted that similar supply shifts in 2018 and 2020 marked bottoms ahead of major accumulation phases.

Treasuries stay aggressive despite volatility - Corporate and institutional buyers continue leaning into Bitcoin despite recent price swings. Tokyo-listed Metaplanet drew another $130 million in BTC-backed credit to scale its treasury strategy, even as the firm sits on nearly a 20% unrealized loss. 

The company said its reserves provide enough buffer to manage volatility, signaling that long-term strategic accumulation remains intact across some institutional treasuries.

Macro pressure keeps sentiment fragile - Analysts still warn that the current rebound could be a dead cat bounce. 

Bitcoin’s near-term direction now hinges on the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision. Markets are pricing an 82% chance of a 25 bps cut, and the outcome will determine whether BTC regains momentum or retests recent lows.

Solana’s ‘double disinflation’ plan meets yield boom and fragile derivatives

Key points:

  • Solana’s first corporate treasury backer has endorsed SIMD-0411, a proposal to double the network’s disinflation rate and cut future emissions by more than 22 million SOL as the token trades about 30% below last month’s highs.

  • At the same time, Solana staking ETFs have attracted $369 million in November and pushed the staked supply to 407 million SOL, even as derivatives metrics, TVL and fees signal cautious sentiment around a sustained move toward $160.

News - Solana’s monetary policy debate escalated after Solana Digital Asset Treasury DeFi Development Corp became the first treasury holder to back SIMD-0411. 

The proposal from Helius Labs would double Solana’s annual disinflation rate from 15% to 30%, bringing the network down to its 1.5% terminal inflation in three years instead of six and trimming more than 22 million SOL from projected emissions, worth roughly $3 billion at current modeling.

DeFi Development Corp holds nearly 2.2 million SOL, about $300 million at recent prices, making it the third largest corporate holder. Its endorsement lands as SOL fell from $197 on October 26 to around $136, leaving giants such as Forward Industries and Upexi with sizable unrealized losses. 

While DeFi Development Corp is still up about 26.6% on its position, the broader drawdown has added urgency to concerns over inflation and structural sell pressure.

Yield-hungry investors double down on SOL - Despite price weakness, capital is flowing into Solana yield plays. Staking ETFs pulled in $369 million between November 3 and November 24, even as Bitcoin and Ether ETFs suffered billions in redemptions. 

Everstake’s Bohdan Opryshko said investors are increasingly treating Solana as a yield-generating asset, supported by native staking rewards around 5% to 7%.

Network data shows 407 million SOL staked out of a circulating supply of roughly 559 million, while Coinbase estimates that 67% of all circulating SOL is staked. 

Retail delegators and Trezor users have continued to add stake, underscoring demand for productive exposure rather than pure speculation.

Regulation, activity, and derivatives send mixed signals - On the regulatory side, Solana’s ecosystem scored a win as the SEC issued a rare no-action letter for the Solana-based DePIN project Fuse, echoing an earlier letter to DoubleZero and signaling a more measured stance under the agency’s new leadership.

On-chain, Solana’s x402 protocol just processed more than 500,000 transactions and over $100,000 in volume over a single weekend, driving a 5.44% price move to $138.56 and highlighting the chain’s ability to host high-throughput applications. Yet derivatives and fee data show that the bullish case is not settled.

SOL remains down about 30% over the past 30 days, with persistent negative funding rates, a 27% drop in futures open interest and a basis rate that has slipped to 0%. Total value locked has fallen to $10.5 billion and weekly chain revenue sits at its lowest level since May. 

Analysts say a short squeeze toward $160 is still possible, but it would require a clear rebound in derivatives demand and stronger investor conviction than the market has shown so far.

Monad’s $3B+ low float debut puts FDV and airdrop hype to the test

Key points:

  • High performance L1 Monad launched mainnet and MON with a low float and a fully diluted valuation around the multi-billion dollar mark, anchoring a roughly $3.2 billion to $3.9 billion range despite a risk off Bitcoin backdrop.

  • A $105 million airdrop, exploitable claim portal, and one trader burning a full $112,700 MON allocation on failed transactions highlight how low float launches and airdrop farming can distort early trading and valuation signals.

News - Monad went live this week with one of the most closely watched L1 launches of the year. The chain pitches Ethereum-style development with higher throughput, low latency block times, and parallel execution inside an EVM-compatible environment. And it shipped with gaming, Telegram tools, wagering apps, and DeFi adjacent products on day one.

MON’s first trading session was volatile. The token swung between roughly $0.023 and $0.039, with early selling from airdrop recipients and intraday rebounds pushing its fully diluted valuation into the multi-billion dollar range. 

One analysis put MON’s debut FDV near $3.2 billion with just over 10.8 billion tokens circulating, about 10% of the eventual 100 billion supply.

The project earmarked 38.5% of supply, or around $1.15 billion at launch pricing, to fund ecosystem development. Only 3.3% from the airdrop and 7.5% from the public sale are in the float for now, with other buckets locked for at least a year, keeping circulating supply tight.

Airdrop farming, exploits and FDV optics - Monad’s launch also underlined the risks around airdrop speculation. Roughly 3.33 billion MON went to early users and community members, valuing the airdrop near $105 million at prices around $0.0316, yet one farmer wallet reportedly burned its entire $112,700 allocation on failed transactions.

Security firm SlowMist flagged a vulnerability in the claim portal that let attackers bind another user’s allocation to their own address, leaving some recipients without their expected tokens. 

At the same time, the token’s price traded close to a recent public sale level near $0.025, showing how thin floats can still create impressive looking FDVs without a large premium over sale prices.

Perps, price levels and what traders are watching - Derivative activity hints that MON’s strong opening may already be fading. 

Analysts tracking perpetual futures noted sharp cuts in net long exposure from the top 100 addresses, a swing into short bias among so-called Smart Money and weakening big money flow on lower timeframes as CMF and OBV fail to confirm sustained accumulation.

Price wise, MON now trades in a narrow band where structure matters. A close above $0.044 is seen as the first step toward a push to $0.049, while a drop below $0.029 would expose the prior base near $0.023. 

With more than 10.8 billion tokens already unlocked but much of the total supply still vested, Monad’s debut is shaping up as a live case study in how low float tokenomics, airdrops and macro fear can pull FDV expectations away from on-chain reality.

Upbit fights $25M penalty as Korea’s crypto rules tighten on all fronts

Key points:

  • Upbit’s operator Dunamu is weighing an appeal against a $25 million fine and a three-month freeze on new customer onboarding after regulators cited millions of KYC and AML violations.

  • South Korea is tightening crypto and broader retail trading rules at once, including stalled stablecoin frameworks and mandatory training for leveraged ETF traders after a record $7 billion October surge.

News - Dunamu, the operator behind Upbit, said it is reviewing whether to appeal the $25 million penalty and sanctions issued by South Korea’s Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). The regulator cited roughly 5.3 million violations of customer verification requirements and failures to report 15 suspicious transactions. 

Upbit is also barred from onboarding new customers for three months, while executives received warning notices.

A Dunamu spokesperson said the FIU has been proven wrong before, referencing a prior court reversal of a 2 billion won fine against Hanbitco. The company emphasized it has reinforced investor protection measures and remains committed to operating a safe platform.

The FIU’s action is part of a wider clampdown. It recently inspected Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and GOPAX, reporting multiple compliance failures across exchanges. The regulator is conducting reviews in a first-in, first-out sequence, beginning with Dunamu’s August 2024 assessment.

Stablecoin framework delayed amid regulatory divide - South Korea’s long-expected guidelines for won-backed stablecoins have stalled. The Bank of Korea insists that banks should hold at least 51% ownership in any issuer, while other regulators want a more open model. 

Three competing bills are now under review in the National Assembly, including disputes over whether issuers may pay interest on stablecoin holdings.

Meanwhile, Naver and Dunamu are accelerating stablecoin initiatives ahead of their proposed merger, with Naver Financial preparing a wallet launch next month.

Retail trading frenzy triggers new ETF rules - Authorities are also reining in the country’s most aggressive retail flows. The Financial Supervisory Service will require investors to complete a one-hour course and three-hour mock exam to trade foreign leveraged ETFs starting December 15.

The shift follows a record $7 billion pumped into US leveraged ETFs in October and $30 billion year-to-date. Korean retail investors purchased 10 trillion won of US stocks in October and another 8.3 trillion won in November, helping push the won into the mid-to-high 1,400 range. 

Regulators warn that leveraged ETF mispricing, volatility decay and heavy margin use now pose systemic risks.

Stay ahead of the Market

Markets don’t wait — and neither should you.

Elite Trade Club gives you a daily edge with clear, no-fluff market insights delivered before Wall Street opens.

Spend less than 5 minutes and get smarter about what’s moving, why it matters, and how other traders are reacting — all in one quick morning email.

Join 200K+ traders already reading before the bell and never start your trading day blind again.

Interesting facts

  • A Nasdaq-listed company just put its shares on-chain - Galaxy Digital and Superstate have launched tokenized GLXY stock on Solana, calling it the first SEC-registered public equity tokenized directly on a major blockchain, with legal ownership tracked on-chain by the official transfer agent.

  • Commercial paper is now being issued and settled on blockchain in minutes - OCBC set up a $1 billion digital US commercial paper program where issuance, settlement, and lifecycle record-keeping happen on-chain, letting the bank receive funds within minutes instead of through legacy rails.

  • A German state bank issued a regulated “crypto bond” under national law - KfW, one of Germany’s biggest public lenders, issued its first blockchain-based digital bond on July 4, 2024, under the Electronic Securities Act, making it one of the earliest German banks to sell a fully regulated crypto security.

AI You’ll Actually Understand

Cut through the noise. The AI Report makes AI clear, practical, and useful—without needing a technical background.

Join 400,000+ professionals mastering AI in minutes a day.

Stay informed. Stay ahead.

No fluff—just results.

Top 3 coins of the day

Kaspa (KAS)

Key points:

  • KAS climbed toward $0.049 after staging a sharp rebound from earlier weekly lows, marking one of today’s stronger mid cap moves.

  • Price pushed above the 20 MA while the RSI continued rising, and the 50 MA now acts as the next overhead level to monitor.

What you should know:

Kaspa rallied strongly after recovering from the $0.040 zone, with a wide green candle signaling renewed strength in the market. The price moved above its 20 day moving average for the first time in several weeks, although the 50 day average remained positioned above it and continued to reflect a broader downtrend. Volume spiked noticeably during the upswing, pointing to heavy participation behind the move. The RSI advanced toward the mid 50s, indicating improving momentum without showing overbought conditions. Beyond the chart, whale activity provided an additional lift as large wallets accumulated sizable amounts of KAS over the past several days. Kaspa’s ongoing shift toward a smart contract-enabled Layer 1 through Kasplex also contributed to improving sentiment. Resistance around the 50 MA near $0.052 to $0.053 remains the next key hurdle.

Quant (QNT)

Key points:

  • QNT traded near $84 after extending its recovery from the $70 region, posting one of the stronger gains among large cap assets today.

  • The Parabolic SAR remained above the latest candles while the Awesome Oscillator continued rising toward the zero line, hinting at improving but still early momentum.

What you should know:

Quant moved higher for a second consecutive session, building on its rebound from earlier monthly lows. The Parabolic SAR stayed above the candles, showing that the broader trend was still tilted to the downside even as buyers attempted to regain control. Recent price action was supported by steady green volume bars, suggesting that market participation picked up during the latest move. The Awesome Oscillator also shifted upward with a series of stronger green bars, reflecting a gradual improvement in short term momentum. On the fundamental side, sentiment around QNT continued to benefit from Quant’s involvement in SWIFT’s ISO 20022 migration and early traction for QuantNet and Fusion. These developments strengthened its narrative in institutional blockchain adoption. Immediate resistance sits near the $88 to $90 region, with support around $78.

Ethena (ENA)

Key points:

  • ENA traded near $0.27 after prolonging its bounce from the $0.24 level, securing another solid gain in today’s session.

  • Price moved toward the midline of the Bollinger Bands while the CMF trended upward, reflecting improving capital flows.

What you should know:

Ethena continued its recovery after stabilizing above the $0.22 support zone earlier this month. The price advanced toward the middle band of the Bollinger setup, a level it had struggled to reclaim through the downtrend. Volume also held firm through the recent lift, showing stronger buy side participation as the market attempted to build a floor. The CMF climbed from deeply negative territory, signaling that selling pressure had eased and accumulation had started returning, although it remained below zero. Fundamentally, ENA gained additional support from Ethena’s partnership with Hyperliquid, which boosted sentiment around its synthetic dollar ecosystem. Whale buying also contributed to reduced circulating supply and reinforced confidence in the rebound. Resistance near the upper Bollinger Band around $0.34 to $0.35 remains the key zone to watch from here.

All the stories worth knowing—all in one place.

Business. Tech. Finance. Culture. If it’s worth knowing, it’s in the Brew.

Morning Brew’s free daily newsletter keeps 4+ million readers in the loop with stories that are smart, quick, and actually fun to read. You’ll learn something new every morning — and maybe even flex your brain with one of our crosswords or quizzes while you’re at it.

Get the news that makes you think, laugh, and maybe even brag about how informed you are.

How was today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.