Is Bitcoin winter finally over?

April 24, 2026

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South Africa’s crypto crackdown sparks self-custody fears

Key points:

  • South Africa’s draft capital flow rules could require declarations for qualifying crypto holdings, restrict cross-border transfers, and impose penalties of up to R1 million or five years in prison.

  • Proposed powers around key disclosures, asset sales, and mandatory use of authorized providers have sparked concerns over privacy, self-custody, and constitutional rights.

News - South Africa’s proposed crypto rules have sparked backlash over whether capital controls are crossing into self-custody restrictions. At the center of the debate are provisions that could require declarations for qualifying holdings, route larger transactions through approved intermediaries, and criminalize some unauthorized cross-border crypto activity.

In some cases, declared assets may need to be offered for sale to the state or approved dealers, a provision that has intensified criticism of the draft framework.

Privacy concerns grow - The most controversial provisions center on enforcement powers. Draft language suggests officials could compel disclosure of passwords or private keys and conduct search-and-seizure actions tied to suspected violations. Critics argue those measures may conflict with constitutional protections involving property rights, due process, and self-incrimination.

Industry voices have also warned the framework may blur the line between illicit capital controls and personal self-custody rights.

Why the debate matters - Supporters say the reforms modernize outdated exchange controls and strengthen oversight of illicit financial flows. Critics warn they could raise compliance burdens, hurt financial inclusion, and push activity into gray markets.

With public comment deadlines cited as May 18 and June 10, the consultation process itself has become contested as stakeholders push for revisions before any final rules take shape.

Saylor says Bitcoin winter is over, Metaplanet bets bigger

Key points:

  • Strategy stock climbed roughly 25% in a month, outpacing Bitcoin’s 9% gain, while Michael Saylor’s “winter’s over” call revived debate over whether BTC may have already bottomed.

  • Fresh treasury moves from Strategy and Metaplanet have added to the case that institutional conviction remains intact despite recent volatility.

News - A growing cluster of signals is reviving debate over whether the Bitcoin winter is truly over, with Michael Saylor’s market call and Metaplanet’s latest treasury expansion adding fresh fuel to that thesis. Strategy’s roughly 25% monthly gain, versus Bitcoin’s 9% rise, has also revived a historical pattern some traders associate with cycle bottoms and rising risk appetite.

That narrative gained momentum after Saylor declared “winter’s over” as Bitcoin held above $78,000, though analysts were more measured, describing the recent slump as a pullback within a broader bull market rather than a definitive regime shift.

Corporate treasuries keep pressing the bet - Beyond market signals, corporate accumulation continues to reinforce the bullish case. Strategy recently expanded its Bitcoin treasury to 780,897 BTC, while Japan’s Metaplanet raised $50 million in zero-interest bonds to fund additional purchases, extending a debt-fueled treasury model increasingly compared to Strategy’s playbook.

Some analysts argue these moves reflect a structural shift in demand, with corporate balance sheets absorbing supply even during volatile periods.

Is a new adoption phase forming? - Another layer to the thesis is the idea that institutional buying may be evolving into a broader sovereign trend. Some market observers point to nation-state reserve discussions as a potential next adoption phase, though others caution Bitcoin’s resilience has not fully translated to the wider altcoin market.

For now, the mix of MSTR outperformance, treasury expansion, and adoption narratives has strengthened the argument that recent weakness may have looked more like consolidation than capitulation.

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China expands crypto crackdown into online promotion

Key points:

  • China has widened its crypto restrictions by banning online promotion tied to virtual asset trading, extending scrutiny beyond exchanges to platforms, intermediaries, and financial influencers.

  • While traders have largely treated the move as regulatory noise, the measures could sharpen debate over how global regulators police crypto promotion.

News - China’s latest regulatory push is targeting not just crypto activity, but the digital channels used to promote it. New rules issued by the People’s Bank of China and seven other agencies classify virtual asset issuance and trading as illegal financial activity and prohibit related online marketing, including newer tactics such as algorithm-driven recommendations and livestream promotions.

Set to take effect on September 30, the framework limits online financial marketing to licensed institutions and authorized platforms, while signaling that intermediaries or content creators facilitating banned promotions may also face scrutiny.

Crackdown shifts toward the marketing layer - Unlike earlier restrictions focused on trading and mining, the latest measures widen enforcement to the promotional ecosystem around crypto. That has put added attention on financial influencers, social platforms, and the role online marketing plays in retail speculation.

Some observers view the move as part of a broader trend, with regulators in Europe, Australia, and the UK also stepping up action against misleading financial promotion.

Markets shrug, but policy signal matters - Despite the announcement, prediction market positioning cited in source reporting showed little sign of immediate panic, suggesting traders viewed the move as an extension of China’s existing stance rather than a fresh systemic shock.

Still, the rules reinforce Beijing’s hard line on crypto while adding a new front in the global debate over whether regulation should focus only on assets and platforms, or also on those shaping investor behavior online.

Morgan Stanley targets stablecoin boom with new reserve fund

Key points:

  • Morgan Stanley has launched a government money market fund tailored for stablecoin issuers, aligning with reserve standards proposed under the GENIUS Act.

  • The move signals rising Wall Street interest in stablecoin infrastructure as firms position for broader adoption and possible regulatory tailwinds.

News - Morgan Stanley is moving deeper into digital asset plumbing with a new fund designed to hold reserves backing payment stablecoins. The Stablecoin Reserves Portfolio, or MSNXX, is structured to maintain a stable $1 net asset value through investments in cash, short-dated U.S. Treasuries, and Treasury-backed repurchase agreements.

The launch arrives as the GENIUS Act advances debate around reserve quality and regulated custody, positioning the firm early for a segment that could grow alongside clearer stablecoin rules.

Wall Street eyes the reserve layer - Unlike many crypto-focused products aimed at price exposure, this fund targets infrastructure. It is built around capital preservation, daily liquidity, and compliant reserve management for issuers, suggesting traditional finance is looking beyond trading products and toward the operational rails behind digital dollars.

Some observers see that as a sign stablecoins are increasingly being treated less as a niche crypto product and more as financial infrastructure.

Bigger push into digital assets - The launch also fits into a broader digital asset expansion at Morgan Stanley. Recent moves, including its Bitcoin Trust and tokenized fund-share initiatives cited in source reporting, suggest the firm is testing multiple entry points across the crypto-finance stack.

With stablecoin use expanding beyond trading into payments and cross-border transfers, the reserve management business itself may be emerging as a key opportunity, especially if legislation pushes issuers toward regulated vehicles.

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Crypto scams uncovered

  • Southeast Asian scam compounds are now tied to billions in crypto fraud losses: The DOJ said crypto investment fraud losses reported to IC3 rose to over $7.2 billion in 2025, with many schemes run from forced-labor scam compounds across Southeast Asia.

  • A fake gold-backed crypto coin ended with a 23-year prison sentence: Meta-1 Coin was marketed as being backed by billions in gold and famous artwork, but U.S. prosecutors said the claims were false and nearly 1,000 investors lost more than $20 million.

  • A crypto marketplace was sanctioned for feeding scam networks stolen data: The U.K. sanctioned Xinbi, a Chinese-language crypto marketplace accused of providing fraud networks with stolen personal data and satellite communication tools used in online scams.

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Top 3 coins of the day

DeXe (DEXE)

Key points:

  • DEXE climbed to $13.25 after rebounding from the $12.50 support region, with price pressing back toward the $13.50-$14 resistance band.

  • The AO stayed below zero with a fresh red bar, while volume-supported buying interest suggested accumulation persisted even as momentum confirmation lagged.

What you should know:

DEXE recovered after its Wave (4)-style pullback, but the move looked more like a rebound rebuilding structure than a fully confirmed breakout, especially with the Awesome Oscillator (AO) still negative. Holding above $12.50 keeps the constructive setup intact, while $13.50-$14 remains the immediate hurdle before a broader retest of prior highs near $16 comes into view. Beyond the chart, the recovery was helped by whale accumulation near the recent dip and continued interest in DeXe’s DAO infrastructure, while capital rotation into decentralized governance and AI-linked assets added secondary support. If volume stays firm while price defends support, buyers may keep probing higher, though weak momentum signals still leave room for consolidation.

Cosmos (ATOM)

Key points:

  • ATOM advanced to $1.93, approaching its projected $1.95-$1.97 Wave (5) target after extending from support near $1.75.

  • RSI pushed near overbought territory while volume-backed participation supported the rally, though late-stage Elliott Wave positioning hinted at possible consolidation risk.

What you should know:

ATOM pushed higher as its impulsive wave structure extended toward projected upside targets, while the $1.87-$1.85 retracement zone now acts as a support band worth monitoring. Unlike a purely speculative jump, the move coincided with rising open interest and positive funding rates, suggesting fresh capital entered alongside the rally. Positive staking flows and the Interchain Security revenue narrative also continued supporting sentiment by reinforcing supply tightening expectations. With RSI nearing overbought conditions, momentum remained constructive but somewhat stretched. If support holds, buyers may keep probing the upper Wave (5) zone, while loss of that support could trigger a cooling phase before another attempt higher.

Toncoin (TON)

Key points:

  • TON traded at $1.31, down over the past 24 hours as sell pressure followed the recent token unlock and price remained below the $1.35 zone.

  • Parabolic SAR stayed above the candles, while the Squeeze Momentum histogram remained below zero and deepened red, reflecting fading upside momentum.

What you should know:

TON weakened as supply-driven pressure from the April 23 token unlock met fading momentum, with red Squeeze bars and bearish SAR positioning reinforcing the softer structure. Volume during rebounds looked less convincing than during the prior selloff, suggesting buyers had not fully absorbed distribution pressure. Beyond the chart, an 18% decline in trading activity and relatively flat open interest pointed to limited fresh capital entering the move. Still, Catchain 2.0’s throughput upgrade offered a constructive fundamental counterweight even as sentiment remained cautious. If $1.30 holds, price may stabilize within a consolidation range, while losing that floor could expose a deeper pullback toward $1.22.

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