JPMorgan warns—Crypto at risk!

February 06, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Crypto faces trade war shockwaves as JPMorgan warns of inflation risks in 2025

Key points:

  • Inflation and tariffs are expected to be the biggest market drivers in 2025, with 51% of traders citing them as key concerns, according to JPMorgan’s latest institutional survey.

  • Despite regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, 71% of institutional traders still have no plans to trade crypto this year, though interest is growing.

  • Market volatility is on the rise, with 41% of traders naming it their top concern, up from 28% last year.

News: JPMorgan traders brace for market shifts amid inflation, tariffs, and volatility - The global financial landscape is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, as inflation and tariffs take center stage in shaping market trends for 2025, according to JPMorgan’s latest survey of institutional traders.

The study, which polled 4,200 institutional clients across 60 global locations, found that 51% of respondents believe inflation and tariffs will have the most significant impact on markets this year—a notable increase from last year. The concern stems from US President Donald Trump’s recent trade policies, including a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10% levy on Chinese goods—some of which were temporarily paused after negotiations.

These economic pressures have already triggered volatility across traditional and crypto markets. Bitcoin rebounded after Trump delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, signaling the direct influence of trade policies on digital assets. Meanwhile, China’s retaliation with a 10% tariff on US crude oil and agricultural machinery reignited concerns, leading to fresh instability.

Institutional interest in crypto still lags, despite policy shifts - Despite shifting regulatory winds in favor of crypto, 71% of institutional traders surveyed by JPMorgan said they have no plans to trade digital assets this year—though this number has slightly improved from 78% in 2024.

However, there is a growing minority of institutional traders engaging with crypto, with 16% planning to enter the market and 13% already trading digital assets. While small, this represents an increase compared to the previous year.

The hesitancy among institutional investors persists even as the Trump administration scales back SEC crypto enforcement and explores pro-crypto policies. Notably, Trump recently signed an executive order establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, with speculation that it may include Bitcoin holdings.

Meanwhile, White House Crypto Czar David Sacks has publicly stated that the US aims to bring stablecoins onshore to extend the dollar’s global dominance.

What’s next? - JPMorgan’s findings highlight a financial landscape increasingly driven by macroeconomic policy, with tariffs, inflation, and volatility weighing on market sentiment. While institutional investors remain cautious about crypto, ongoing regulatory shifts under the new administration could accelerate adoption in the months ahead.

As traders navigate these uncertainties, crypto’s role as a hedge against market volatility remains a point of debate, with Bitcoin’s price movements increasingly tied to geopolitical and economic developments.

Bitcoin whales accumulate as BTC nears $100K—Breakout or bull trap?

Key points:

  • Bitcoin whales have accumulated over 150,000 BTC, reinforcing key support between $97,500 and $99,999, while retail traders exit.

  • BTC saw its largest exchange outflow since April 2024, with over 17,000 BTC ($1.6 billion) withdrawn, signaling institutional interest.

News: Whales accumulate as BTC faces $100K resistance - Bitcoin is showing signs of recovery as whale investors continue accumulating BTC amid market volatility. Over 150,000 BTC have been acquired at key support levels between $97,500 and $99,999, reinforcing price stability as smaller traders exit.

On-chain data also revealed that centralized exchanges recorded their biggest single-day outflow since April 2024, with 17,000 BTC withdrawn—a bullish sign that investors are moving coins into self-custody for long-term holding. Coinbase alone processed 15,000 BTC in withdrawals, which analysts suggest could be tied to institutional purchases or ETF inflows.

According to Bitwise Head of Research Andre Dragosch, “Whales are buying this dip,” hinting that larger investors are accumulating BTC despite market uncertainty.

BTC must break $100K for further upside - Bitcoin is currently forming an ascending wedge pattern, with $100,000 acting as the key resistance level. A successful breakout above $100K could trigger a 7% rally toward $106,100. However, failure to reclaim $100K may lead to a drop toward $95,668, potentially invalidating the bullish outlook.

Meanwhile, political developments have also impacted BTC’s price movement. Eric Trump encouraged the Trump-family-backed crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, to invest in Bitcoin, causing BTC to climb from $96,900 to $98,000. Additionally, Trump’s AI and crypto czar, David Sacks, recently revealed that the administration is evaluating the feasibility of a strategic Bitcoin reserve, though no immediate actions have been taken.

What’s next? - Bitcoin’s trajectory depends on whether it can break and hold above $100K in the coming days. Sustained whale accumulation and growing institutional interest could push BTC higher, while failure to sustain momentum may lead to a retest of support at $97K or lower.

With macroeconomic uncertainty and shifting market sentiment, Bitcoin’s next move could determine whether a new rally emerges or a deeper correction unfolds.

Ethereum eyes $3K as Pectra upgrade, ETF inflows boost bullish sentiment

Key points:

  • Ethereum is trading above $2,800, outperforming the crypto market with a 4% daily gain.

  • Bullish sentiment is driven by the upcoming Pectra upgrade, rising spot Ethereum ETF inflows, and improving technical indicators.

  • A breakout above $3,000 could trigger a rally toward $3,294, while failure to hold support at $2,553 may lead to further downside.

News - Ethereum (ETH) is showing signs of a potential breakout, fueled by rising ETF inflows and anticipation around the Pectra upgrade. The asset surged 4% in the past 24 hours, outperforming the broader crypto market, which saw a modest 0.65% increase in total capitalization.

The upcoming Pectra upgrade, slated for March 2025, is one of the major catalysts behind Ethereum’s price action. This upgrade aims to enhance scalability, transaction speed, and gas fee efficiency, making Ethereum more attractive to developers and investors. Ethereum researcher Justin Drake predicts that ETH supply could decrease post-upgrade, further driving bullish momentum.

Additionally, Ethereum ETFs have recorded five consecutive days of positive inflows, totaling $421.5 million. Year-to-date inflows have now reached $1.1 billion, with BlackRock’s ETHA fund leading purchases at $579 million. Analysts believe regulatory changes allowing staking for spot ETFs could further boost investment demand.

Market sentiment & technicals - Ethereum is currently facing resistance at $3,000, a key psychological and technical level. Historically, reclaiming this price zone as support has led to 20%-35% gains, putting $4,100 within reach.

On-chain indicators also support Ethereum’s recovery. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has turned positive at 0.14, signaling rising buying pressure despite recent price declines. Meanwhile, the funding rate flipped positive at 0.0046%, indicating growing demand for long positions.

Ethereum’s price has been trading within a descending channel, a pattern often associated with bearish trends. However, analysts note that a breakout above $3,000 could invalidate this pattern, propelling ETH toward $3,294.

If ETH fails to break past this level, a retest of $2,553 support remains possible. A loss of this zone could trigger a deeper correction, stalling Ethereum’s recovery.

What’s next? - Ethereum’s short-term trajectory depends on whether it can reclaim $3,000 as support. If successful, ETH could target $3,294-$4,100 in the coming weeks. However, failure to hold support at $2,553 may delay the anticipated bullish breakout. Investors are closely watching ETF inflows and Pectra upgrade developments to gauge Ethereum’s next move.

FTX Token (FTT) rises as creditor payouts near: Can bulls push it to $3?

Key points:

  • FTX Token (FTT) surged after the exchange announced creditor payments will begin on February 18.

  • The token must break resistance at $2.44 to target $3, but failure to sustain momentum could lead to a retest of $1.89 support.

News: FTT gains Amid FTX creditor repayments - FTX Token (FTT) is showing signs of recovery after the exchange confirmed plans to start creditor repayments on February 18. The token has rebounded from recent lows, with bullish sentiment returning to the market.

Despite this, FTT still faces challenges, as technical indicators suggest momentum is building but remains fragile. While buying pressure is increasing, the overall trend strength is not yet fully confirmed.

FTT’s trend strength remains unclear - The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows a notable shift in momentum. The +DI (bullish strength) has surged to 27.7, up from 14.1 in a single day, while -DI (bearish strength) has dropped to 15.3. This crossover signals that bullish momentum is taking control.

However, the Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength, has fallen to 23.4, down from 41 just four days ago. An ADX below 25 suggests weak or indecisive price action, meaning FTT’s current uptrend is not yet fully established.

If ADX rises above 25 again, FTT could see a stronger bullish continuation. However, if it drops below 20, consolidation may follow, limiting further gains.

RSI signals growing buying pressure - FTT’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 59.2, up from 22 just three days ago. This rapid increase reflects rising buying pressure, fueled by optimism around creditor repayments.

A reading above 60 could strengthen the bullish outlook, while a decline could indicate a temporary consolidation phase.

FTT price prediction: Will it hit $3? - FTT is approaching a critical resistance zone between $2.32 and $2.44. A breakout above these levels could send the token toward $2.77, with $3 becoming the next major target.

Speculation surrounding a potential pardon for FTX co-founder Sam Bankman-Fried could also drive volatility, possibly pushing FTT toward $3 or even $4.

On the downside, failure to maintain momentum could see FTT retesting support at $1.89. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish thesis, potentially sending FTT toward $1.50.

With FTT’s trend still unconfirmed, traders should watch for key breakouts or signs of weakening momentum in the coming days.

Interesting facts

  • Stablecoins outpaced Visa and Mastercard in transaction volume in 2024. According to ARK Invest, stablecoins like USDT and USDC recorded $15.6 trillion in on-chain transactions, surpassing Visa’s transaction volume by 119% and Mastercard’s by 200%. This milestone highlights the increasing role of stablecoins in global finance, cross-border payments, and digital transactions.

  • Ethereum handles more daily transactions than Bitcoin. With the rise of DeFi, NFTs, and layer-2 scaling solutions, Ethereum has consistently processed more transactions per day than Bitcoin, proving its increasing utility beyond just a store of value.

  • The Central African Republic briefly adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2022 but later reversed course. While it was the second country after El Salvador to legalize Bitcoin, its Sango Coin initiative faced legal challenges. By 2023, the government reaffirmed the Central African CFA franc as its official currency, effectively ending Bitcoin’s legal tender status.

Top 3 coins of the day

Bitget Token (BGB)

Key points:

  • At press time, BGB was trading at $6.76, reflecting a 3.26% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The token displayed notable activity, supported by a trading volume of 16.7K, as per CoinMarketCap data.

What you should know:

BGB’s price closed at $6.76, trading slightly above the SMA 9, which was positioned at $6.68, indicating potential bullish momentum in the short term. The RSI (14) was recorded at 51.99, reflecting a neutral trend with neither overbought nor oversold conditions. Additionally, trading volume showed moderate activity, suggesting balanced participation between buyers and sellers. Immediate support lies near the SMA 9 level of $6.68, which may act as a floor for the price if bearish pressure emerges, while resistance at $7.00 could test bullish sentiment. A sustained move above the $7.00 resistance could push the price toward new highs, signaling a continuation of the upward trajectory. However, if the price falls below the $6.68 support, a retracement toward $6.50 may occur. Traders should closely monitor the RSI movement for potential shifts into overbought territory, which could trigger short-term profit-taking.

TRON (TRX)

Key points:

  • At press time, TRX was trading at $0.2281, reflecting a 2.52% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • It registered significant daily trading activity, as per CoinMarketCap’s data.

What you should know:

TRX exhibited a modest recovery, closing at $0.2281 after bouncing off its intraday low of $0.2215. The price was below the SMA (9) level of $0.2355, indicating bearish dominance despite the recent uptick. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) displayed a mix of green and red bars, suggesting inconsistent momentum and a potential lack of strong directional bias in the short term. Trading volume surged to 483.83M, reflecting heightened market activity. Immediate resistance lies near the SMA at $0.2355, while the $0.2215 level acts as the nearest support. A sustained move above the SMA could pave the way for further recovery toward $0.2400. Conversely, if selling pressure intensifies, the price might retest the $0.2150 zone. Traders should closely monitor the Awesome Oscillator for signs of strengthening bullish momentum or a shift in sentiment toward the downside. Additionally, the price's interaction with the SMA will serve as a key indicator of TRX's short-term direction.

Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL)

Key points:

  • At press time, VIRTUAL was trading at $1.202, reflecting a 6.68% decline over the last 24 hours.

  • The token exhibited significant bearish momentum and traded near the lower Bollinger Band.

What you should know:

VIRTUAL remained under consistent bearish pressure, evidenced by its position near the lower Bollinger Band at $1.077, which acts as immediate support. The upper Bollinger Band was positioned at $2.306, serving as resistance. The token’s movement within the bands suggested that bearish sentiment dominated, with limited signs of recovery. Moreover, the MACD reflected sustained selling pressure, as the MACD line stayed below the signal line, with red histogram bars persisting. However, the decreasing size of these bars hinted at a potential slowdown in bearish momentum. Trading volume had shown moderate activity, with sellers maintaining dominance. However, buyers appeared to be testing support levels near $1.077. If the price breaches this support, further declines toward $1.000 could occur. Conversely, a rebound past $1.500 might indicate a recovery toward the resistance at $2.306. Traders should monitor the MACD closely for any potential bullish crossover and watch the Bollinger Bands for indications of a breakout or continued downward movement.

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