Kraken wins, Trump bets, Bitcoin swings

March 03, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Kraken triumphs as SEC drops lawsuit: What it means for crypto

Key points:

  • The SEC has agreed to dismiss its lawsuit against Kraken with prejudice, meaning it cannot refile the case with the same claims.

  • The decision is part of a broader shift, with the SEC dropping multiple cases against crypto firms, signaling a change in regulatory approach.

News - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially dropped its lawsuit against crypto exchange Kraken, marking a significant legal and regulatory win for the company. This move, which comes with no penalties or required changes to Kraken’s business, follows increasing pressure on the SEC to rethink its aggressive enforcement strategy against crypto firms.

Kraken had been accused of operating as an unregistered securities exchange, a claim that the company consistently denied. The lawsuit, filed in November 2023, alleged that Kraken violated securities laws by acting as a broker, dealer, and clearing agency without proper registration. However, with no clear regulatory framework for digital assets, Kraken argued that the SEC’s case was unfounded and politically motivated.

In response to the lawsuit’s dismissal, Kraken released a statement celebrating the decision as a “turning point for the future of crypto in the U.S.” The company emphasized that the SEC’s case lacked merit and that its resolution removes a cloud of uncertainty that has hindered investment and innovation in the industry.

A broader shift in SEC’s crypto enforcement - Kraken’s victory is not an isolated case. The SEC has recently dropped at least six lawsuits against major crypto entities, including Coinbase, MetaMask, and Robinhood. Additionally, the agency has halted investigations into multiple projects while working to establish a clearer regulatory framework for crypto assets through its newly formed Crypto Task Force.

Industry leaders see this as a sign that the SEC is shifting away from its previous “regulation-by-enforcement” strategy under former leadership. Instead, there is growing optimism that a more transparent and structured approach to crypto regulation may emerge.

What’s next? - With the SEC retreating from multiple legal battles, the focus now shifts to how U.S. regulators will define the future of crypto policy. Kraken and other industry players are advocating for stable, predictable regulations that foster innovation while protecting investors.

As the dust settles, one key question remains: Will the SEC’s shift in stance impact its ongoing lawsuit against Ripple (XRP)? Given the recent developments, some speculate that this case could also be dismissed in the near future.

For now, the dismissal of the Kraken lawsuit reinforces optimism in the crypto industry, setting a precedent for other firms that have long fought regulatory uncertainty.

Trump’s crypto reserve plan triggers market surge, but analysts warn of hurdles

Key points:

  • President Trump’s crypto reserve plan includes XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA), sparking a market rally.

  • Analysts warn that congressional approval is required, which may slow down progress and introduce volatility.

  • The upcoming White House Crypto Summit on March 7 could provide further clarity on the plan’s feasibility.

News - The cryptocurrency market saw a significant uptick following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a potential strategic crypto reserve. On March 2, Trump stated that his Working Group on Digital Assets had been directed to include three altcoins—XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano’s ADA—in the proposed U.S. crypto reserve. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are also expected to be part of the reserve, Trump confirmed in a follow-up post on Truth Social.

The announcement triggered a widespread market rally, with the global crypto market cap jumping nearly 7% to $3.04 trillion. Bitcoin surged past the $95,000 mark with a 7.7% intraday gain, while ADA led altcoin gains with a 43% rise, followed by XRP and SOL, which saw 15% and 12% gains, respectively.

Analysts caution: Congressional approval required - Despite the market’s enthusiastic response, analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of the reserve. Aurelie Barthere, a principal research analyst at Nansen, highlighted that the establishment of a national crypto reserve would require congressional approval, making it a complex and time-consuming process.

Nicolai Sondergaard, another Nansen research analyst, warned that market volatility could persist as investors weigh the political and regulatory challenges ahead. "Regardless of how long these gains will last, it is momentarily positive for the market, but the question for the future will be if any of it will come to fruition. If not, it will likely be a negative news point for crypto," Sondergaard noted.

Industry leaders react to the crypto reserve proposal - The announcement has sparked mixed reactions from industry leaders.

  • Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, praised the plan, saying it represents a shift towards recognizing the importance of blockchain beyond Bitcoin. "Maximalism is the enemy of the industry’s progress. Glad to see POTUS recognizing we live in a multichain world and that we’re finally moving past Bill Hinman and the Biden administration's SEC’s very broken thinking," he stated.

  • Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, expressed a preference for a Bitcoin-only reserve but remained open to broader discussions. "If folks wanted more variety, you could do a market cap weighted index of crypto assets to keep it unbiased," Armstrong suggested.

  • Peter Schiff, a gold proponent and Bitcoin critic, questioned the rationale for including XRP, stating, "Why the hell would we need that?"

What’s next? White House Crypto Summit - While Trump’s strategic reserve proposal has fueled optimism, key details remain unclear. The first White House Crypto Summit, scheduled for March 7, is expected to address major regulatory concerns, including stablecoin policies and the crypto reserve framework. Industry participants will be watching closely to gauge the administration’s commitment to implementing the initiative.

For now, traders are advised to stay cautious as regulatory hurdles and political opposition could lead to increased market turbulence. Whether Trump’s plan materializes or remains a political gesture will largely depend on the upcoming congressional deliberations and stakeholder engagement in the summit.

Bitcoin whiplash: Wild rally stalls as traders brace for volatility

Key points:

  • Bitcoin surged past $95K following Trump's crypto reserve announcement but retraced to $89.5K amid profit-taking.

  • Analysts caution regulatory hurdles and market sentiment shifts could fuel further volatility.

News - Bitcoin experienced a wild price swing over the past 24 hours, initially soaring above $95,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans for a strategic crypto reserve. However, the rally was short-lived, with BTC dipping back below $90K, triggering a wave of speculation on whether bullish momentum will hold.

The broader crypto market, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP, and Cardano (ADA)—all mentioned in Trump's announcement—also saw similar moves. After significant Sunday gains, many of these assets retraced, reflecting growing caution among investors.

Bitcoin’s rally faces skepticism - Despite the initial excitement, some analysts remain unconvinced about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s surge. Lekker Capital CIO Quinn Thompson dismissed the hype, stating that Trump's plan could legitimize two of the largest scams in the industry rather than provide real benefits. Similarly, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes noted that unless Congress approves funding to acquire crypto, the announcement remains “just words.”

At the same time, Santiment data suggests that Bitcoin traders often miscalculate price movements—when the market expects a rally, BTC tends to dip, and vice versa. If this pattern holds, the latest surge could be followed by another round of corrections.

Key levels to watch - Bitcoin’s next price move could be dictated by critical support and resistance levels:

  • $93,625: Holding above this level could signal a retest of $97,696, reinforcing the bullish trend.

  • $95,761: Failure to hold above this could push BTC back toward $92,005, potentially reversing gains.

What’s next? - With Bitcoin’s dominance at 60.74%, historical patterns indicate a possible transition phase where altcoins gain momentum. Analysts warn that volatility remains high, and traders should prepare for potential price swings as markets digest the long-term impact of Trump’s crypto strategy.

For now, investors remain split on whether Bitcoin will sustain its rally or face another "sell the news" event.

Crypto ETPs face record $2.9B weekly outflows as Bitcoin takes the hardest hit

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Key points:

  • Crypto ETPs recorded a staggering $2.9 billion in outflows, marking the worst week on record, driven by a mix of profit-taking, macroeconomic concerns, and the Bybit hack.

  • Bitcoin suffered the most, seeing $2.6 billion in outflows, while Ethereum also struggled with a $300 million sell-off. Meanwhile, Sui and XRP defied the trend, attracting $15.5 million and $5 million in inflows, respectively.

News - The cryptocurrency market is grappling with its biggest weekly sell-off ever, as digital asset exchange-traded products (ETPs) witnessed a record-breaking $2.9 billion in outflows over the past week, according to a March 3 CoinShares report. The latest figures mark the third consecutive week of declining investments, pushing total outflows to $3.8 billion during this period.

Analysts attribute the downturn to multiple factors, including the $1.5 billion Bybit hack, hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve policies, and profit-taking following a 19-week, $29 billion inflow streak. The impact of these factors has significantly weakened investor sentiment, driving a mass exodus from crypto investment vehicles.

Bitcoin takes the hardest hit - As the dominant asset in crypto ETPs, Bitcoin bore the brunt of the sell-off, losing $2.6 billion last week, marking one of its worst performances. Month-to-date, Bitcoin’s ETPs have seen $3.2 billion in outflows, signaling increasing investor caution amid market uncertainties.

Ethereum (ETH) also struggled, recording $300 million in weekly outflows, despite still holding $490.3 million in month-to-date inflows. Solana (SOL) faced $7.4 million in losses, reinforcing broader bearish sentiment across the altcoin sector.

Sui and XRP defy the trend - Despite the overall negative market trend, some assets managed to attract fresh inflows. Sui emerged as the top performer, bringing in $15.5 million, while XRP followed closely with $5 million in inflows. The latter’s positive performance is partly fueled by speculation surrounding a potential XRP ETF and Trump’s recent announcement that included XRP in the proposed U.S. crypto reserve.

BlackRock and Grayscale face heavy outflows - Among institutional crypto investment products, BlackRock’s iShares ETFs saw their first major sell-off, losing $1.3 billion in a single week. This follows their first recorded 2025 outflows of $22 million the previous week. Despite this setback, BlackRock’s ETFs still maintain a net inflow of $3.2 billion year-to-date, with $51 billion in total assets under management (AUM).

Meanwhile, Grayscale’s crypto ETFs lost $421 million last week, continuing their downward trend with $1 billion in outflows year-to-date. In contrast, ProShares ETFs bucked the trend, securing $76 million in inflows, making them the only major crypto ETF issuer to see positive traction during the sell-off.

What’s next for crypto ETPs? - With investor sentiment still fragile, analysts caution that macro trends, regulatory developments, and institutional participation will play crucial roles in shaping market movements. While the record-breaking outflows indicate profit-taking and weakened confidence, the continued interest in XRP and Sui suggests that not all investors are exiting the space entirely.

As Bitcoin struggles to regain its footing above the $90,000 psychological level, market participants will closely watch the Federal Reserve’s next moves, ETF-related regulatory decisions, and Trump’s upcoming White House Crypto Summit on March 7 for potential catalysts that could shift sentiment in either direction.

Did you know?

  • By the end of 2024, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $3.32 trillion, reflecting rising adoption, ETF approvals, and increasing institutional investments in digital assets.

  • As of January 2025, Bitcoin accounted for 57.2% of the total crypto market capitalization, reinforcing its status as the most dominant and influential digital asset.

  • In early March 2025, Bitcoin surged past $89,000, marking a 6.06% increase in just a day. The rally was fueled by growing institutional demand and speculation around upcoming halving events.

Top 3 coins of the day

Cardano (ADA)

Key points:

  • At press time, ADA was trading at $0.97, marking a 14.18% decline over the last 24 hours.

  • The asset witnessed a massive 60% rally in the past week, peaking at $1.17, largely driven by Trump’s announcement of ADA being part of his crypto strategic reserve before experiencing a pullback.

What you should know:

Cardano’s price has seen a significant surge in market activity, initially fueled by former President Trump’s statement on Truth Social including ADA in his crypto strategic reserve. This triggered a sharp rally, pushing the price above $1.10 before retracing to its current level. Despite the pullback, the increased trading volume and strong MA Ribbon breakout suggest that bullish momentum has not entirely faded. The RSI spiked above 60 before cooling off, indicating that ADA briefly entered an overbought zone before correcting. Meanwhile, the 200-day MA around $0.77 is acting as a key support level. If ADA maintains its position above $0.85, a retest of $1.10 and $1.17 could be on the horizon, provided buying pressure remains steady. However, failure to hold above current levels could see the asset revisit lower supports in the coming days.

Onyxcoin (XCN)

Key points:

  • At press time, XCN was trading at $0.018, reflecting a 4.30% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The price saw a strong rebound following the formation of a golden cross, signaling a potential trend reversal.

What you should know:

XCN witnessed a notable recovery after its prolonged downtrend, with the golden cross formation—where the short-term moving average crosses above the long-term moving average—indicating renewed bullish momentum. The Parabolic SAR dots shifted closer to the price action, suggesting a potential shift in trend direction. Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) showed signs of decreasing bearish momentum, with a slight increase in green bars on the histogram. The trading volume remained moderate, hinting that buyers are cautiously stepping in. If XCN can maintain its upward trajectory, resistance at $0.022 could be the next key level to watch, while a drop below $0.017 might invalidate the short-term bullish outlook.

Celestia (TIA)

Key points:

  • At press time, TIA was trading at $3.77, marking a 9.12% decline over the last 24 hours.

  • The price pullback followed a failed attempt to break the $4.50 resistance, leading to increased selling pressure.

What you should know:

TIA faced a sharp decline after struggling to sustain momentum above the $4.50 resistance level, leading to a price drop of over 15% in the past day. The Bollinger Bands widened, indicating heightened volatility, while TIA’s price retraced toward the 20-day SMA support. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator showed a weakening bullish crossover, with the histogram printing shorter green bars, signaling a potential continuation of bearish pressure. Trading volume remained relatively high, suggesting that sellers dominated the recent price movement. If the bearish trend continues, TIA might test the $3.50 support zone, while a recovery above $4.00 could open doors for another attempt at breaching $4.50.

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