Markets jitter as CPI runs hot

September 11, 2025

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Hot CPI nudges Fed toward 25 bps cut, Bitcoin holds near $114K

Key points:

  • U.S. CPI rose 0.4% in August vs 0.3% expected; jobless claims jumped, keeping a Fed cut next week in play.

  • Bitcoin hovered near $114,000 as U.S. spot ETF inflows hit an eight-week high, while odds favor a 25 bps cut.

News - August CPI arrived hotter than forecasts at 0.4% month over month, with core CPI up 0.3% in line with estimates. Year over year, headline inflation printed 2.9%. The release coincided with a sharp rise in weekly initial jobless claims to 263,000, pointing to further labor market softening.

Markets leaned toward a smaller move at the September 17 FOMC meeting, with the CME FedWatch showing roughly 92% odds of a 25 basis point cut and about 8% for 50. Bitcoin dipped about 0.5% immediately after the data, then steadied around $114,000.

ETF flows and price action - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $757.1 million of inflows on Wednesday, the highest in eight weeks, bringing September’s tally to $1.39 billion. Analysts tied the bid to macro catalysts, including the inflation print and the looming rate decision.

Open interest rose alongside positive funding rates, while Ethereum funds showed net outflows in the same period, consistent with a rotation toward Bitcoin.

Rate cut debate: 25 vs 50 - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said a 25 basis point cut is most likely and doubted a 50 basis point move is “on the cards.” Standard Chartered, however, has argued a larger cut is possible given weaker jobs data. Market odds for a 50 bps cut eased after CPI, slipping from about 12% to near 9%.

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries under scrutiny - JPMorgan said the S&P 500 index committee’s discretionary rejection of Strategy’s inclusion, despite meeting technical criteria, signals growing caution toward companies that function as de facto Bitcoin funds.

The bank warned other index providers could reassess Bitcoin-heavy firms amid weaker equity and debt fundraising for the corporate treasury model.

Outlook - Near term, traders are focused on next week’s FOMC. A 25 bps cut is widely expected; a surprise 50 bps move would be the bigger market catalyst.

Ethereum’s rally fueled by ETFs, supply shock, and big treasury buys

Key points:

  • Ethereum has surged 140% since the Pectra upgrade, driven by institutional demand, ETF inflows, and a tightening supply, according to Sygnum.

  • BitMine boosted its ETH holdings past $9.2 billion, while futures trading volume soared to $49.4 billion, surpassing Bitcoin’s $42.9 billion.

News - Ethereum’s revival after years of underperformance is being fueled by a “perfect storm” of catalysts, according to digital asset bank Sygnum.

The smooth execution of the Pectra upgrade, which added staking and scaling improvements, has propelled ETH higher, with prices climbing 140% since the upgrade compared with Bitcoin’s 15% gain.

Institutional demand is central to this surge. ETFs and digital asset treasuries (DATs) now hold more than $43 billion worth of ETH, representing roughly 8.4% of the market cap.

Flows picked up sharply in May 2025 after the SEC clarified that staking services are not securities offerings, clearing regulatory uncertainty. Staking itself has removed nearly 30% of ETH’s supply from circulation, tightening liquidity further.

Treasuries drive accumulation - Adding to the pressure, treasury firm BitMine purchased another 46,255 ETH this week, pushing its holdings above 2.1 million ETH worth $9.2 billion. It remains the largest corporate holder, outpacing Sharplink Gaming’s 837,000 ETH.

Futures traders pile in - Speculators are also flocking to Ethereum futures. Aggregate 24-hour ETH futures volume reached $49.4 billion, surpassing Bitcoin’s $42.9 billion, Coinanalyze data shows.

The divergence comes as Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.39 billion in inflows over the past 10 days while Ethereum ETFs lost $668 million, suggesting a rotation between spot products and derivatives.

Outlook - Analysts note that Ethereum’s strong fundamentals, rising institutional participation, and ongoing supply shock could set it up for further gains, though the market’s trajectory still depends on macro events like the Fed’s rate decision.

Hyperliquid’s USDH stablecoin race heats up as Kinetiq’s TVL surges

Key points:

  • Kinetiq’s liquid staking protocol has ballooned to $2.1B TVL as users chase airdrop rewards tied to Hyperliquid’s HYPE token.

  • Eight contenders, including Paxos, Ethena, BitGo, and Native Markets, are battling to issue Hyperliquid’s USDH stablecoin, with Sunday’s validator vote set to decide the winner.

News - Hyperliquid’s ecosystem is seeing a flood of activity as both staking and stablecoin proposals draw record participation.

Kinetiq, the HYPE-powered liquid staking protocol, has jumped from $458 million in July to over $2.1 billion in total value locked, according to DefiLlama. Nearly 40 million HYPE tokens are now staked, with much of the inflow tied to its ongoing points-for-airdrop campaign.

At the same time, the fight to control Hyperliquid’s planned USDH stablecoin has turned into one of the most competitive governance battles of the year. Eight firms submitted proposals this week, including BitGo, Paxos, Ethena, Frax, Agora, Sky, OpenEden, and Native Markets.

Contenders and community pushback - BitGo emphasized regulatory compliance and pledged to buy and stake HYPE using USDH yield, while OpenEden promised to distribute 100% of its generated yield back into the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

Ethena, backed by BlackRock, offered to route 95% of revenue to Hyperliquid and cover migration costs. Paxos highlighted its global licenses and pledged larger allocations to Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund.

Native Markets currently leads both prediction markets and early validator signals, though critics have alleged unfair advantages. Dragonfly’s Haseeb Qureshi warned of a “backroom deal,” while Nansen’s Alex Svanevik defended the competitiveness of the process.

Arthur Hayes enters the fray - Maelstrom co-founder Arthur Hayes disclosed nearly $1M in Ethena’s ENA token purchases this week, adding intrigue to the race. Analysts say validator alignments, rather than sentiment polls, will ultimately decide the outcome.

Outlook - Hyperliquid validators are expected to lock in their final votes by Sunday. With $5.9B in stablecoin reserves at stake, the outcome will determine which issuer gains control of USDH and how its revenues are directed back into the Hyperliquid ecosystem.

21Shares unveils dYdX ETP as institutions eye DeFi derivatives

Key points:

  • 21Shares has listed a physically backed ETP for dYdX’s DYDX token on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, expanding its 48-product lineup.

  • The launch highlights growing institutional interest in decentralized derivatives as dYdX pursues spot markets, RWA perpetuals, and new trading features.

News - Swiss asset manager 21Shares has rolled out a new exchange-traded product tracking dYdX’s native token, DYDX.

The product, which is physically backed and supported by the dYdX Treasury subDAO through its operator kpk, began trading this week in Paris and Amsterdam. It marks the latest addition to Europe’s largest crypto ETP lineup, with 21Shares now offering 48 products representing $11 billion in assets under management.

dYdX, one of the largest decentralized derivatives exchanges, has processed more than $1.4 trillion in cumulative volume across 230 perpetual markets. Its inclusion in a regulated wrapper provides institutions with direct, compliant exposure to a sector that has historically been dominated by offshore venues.

Flow Traders will act as the market maker to ensure liquidity and pricing efficiency, while staking and auto-compounding features are set to follow.

Expanding DeFi’s reach - The product arrives as dYdX accelerates its roadmap. The protocol is preparing Telegram-based trading, spot markets starting with Solana, and perpetual contracts tied to real-world assets such as equities. These expansions aim to capture a slice of the $100 trillion global derivatives market, where DeFi’s share remains under 1%.

Industry context - The launch underscores how traditional and crypto-native platforms are converging on derivatives. In recent months, Kraken has expanded its regulated futures business, Cboe has announced “continuous futures” for Bitcoin and Ether, and Bitget has reported $750 billion in monthly derivatives volume.

Outlook - With DYDX now available through a regulated 21Shares product, institutions gain structured access to one of DeFi’s largest derivatives protocols. Backed by $11B in AUM and a growing suite of products, 21Shares’ move reflects rising demand for compliant exposure as dYdX expands into spot markets, RWA perpetuals, and new trading features.

Interesting facts

  • As investor enthusiasm cools, firms that hoard Bitcoin and other crypto assets have seen sharp stock price drops. Michael Saylor’s Strategy fell from ~$457 in July to ~$328 recently, and others with leveraged exposure have lost 50-70% from recent peaks.

  • The Avalanche Foundation is preparing to launch two digital asset treasury entities in the U.S., one new and one via converting a Nasdaq-listed firm, to buy millions of AVAX tokens, aiming to raise $1 billion to strengthen its role in capital-markets infrastructure.

  • Blockchain lender Figure just raised $787.5M in its U.S. IPO and will trade on Nasdaq under FIGR, extending the wave of crypto-native listings hitting public markets this week.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Dogecoin (DOGE)

Key points:

  • At the time of writing, DOGE traded at $0.250, marking a 2.24% rise over the last 24 hours.

  • The price stayed above its 9-day SMA, while the Awesome Oscillator showed expanding green bars, signaling growing bullish momentum.

What you should know:

Dogecoin’s latest gains came as traders looked ahead to the launch of the Dogecoin ETF ($DOJE) on September 11, a move expected to boost regulated retail and institutional access. Whales also accumulated over 285M in the last 24 hours for CleanCore’s treasury, a sign of confidence in long-term demand. On the chart, DOGE reclaimed the $0.25 mark, maintaining support at $0.245, with resistance seen near $0.265–$0.270. The Awesome Oscillator’s growing green histogram and the price holding above the 9-day SMA point to sustained bullish momentum, though the overbought conditions suggest caution. The key question is whether DOGE can hold its breakout post-ETF launch or face a short-term pullback.

Key points:

  • TAO settled at $355, gaining 2.06% in 24h as it pushed above the Bollinger midline and neared the upper band.

  • The SQZMOM histogram remained red but shrinking, pointing to fading bearish momentum and a possible bullish crossover.

What you should know:

Bittensor advanced to $355, recovering above the Bollinger midline near $331 while pressing toward the upper band around $362–$365. Trading volume of $37M came in stronger than recent days, reinforcing buyer conviction. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator showed red bars that have been contracting since early September, highlighting waning sell pressure and hinting at a potential shift in momentum if bars cross into green. Support holds near $340, with resistance at $362–$365 and a secondary ceiling near $380. Beyond the chart, institutional interest has remained a driver, with Nasdaq-listed TAO Synergies expanding holdings to over 42,000 TAO. Broader altcoin rotation, reflected in the rising Altcoin Season Index, has also funneled attention back to AI-linked tokens like TAO. Traders now look for a sustained close above the upper band to confirm breakout strength.

Ethereum (ETH)

Key points:

  • ETH closed at $4,437, rising 2.04% in the last 24h while holding above its short-term support zone.

  • The Parabolic SAR stayed above recent candles, with RSI at 55.2, showing room for further upside.

What you should know:

Ethereum’s price lifted to $4,437, supported by a modest increase in daily volume of 8.85K. The Parabolic SAR remained above the candles, reflecting persistent bullish bias, while the RSI at 55.2 suggested balanced momentum with capacity for continuation. Key resistance stands at $4,509, while $4,300 serves as the immediate support to monitor. Alongside these technicals, non-technical catalysts added momentum: U.S. spot ETH ETFs saw $1.02B in inflows on September 10, the largest since launch, while the SEC reaffirmed ETH’s status as a commodity, boosting institutional confidence. Whales holding 1k–10k ETH also accumulated over $2.5B in 24h, reinforcing buying conviction. Traders now watch if ETH can push beyond the $4,509 resistance level to unlock fresh upside potential.

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