This memecoin rose 250%

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Market concerns grow as Bitcoin falls below $60k, historical trends indicate cycle top

Key points:

• Key on-chain metrics of Bitcoin indicated that we might be close to a market-top

• The price drop below $60k was symptomatic of the bulls’ struggle

News - Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics showed that the bull run might be nearing its end. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $57.5k and has lost 9.96% from Monday, the 1st of July’s high at $63.8k.

Founder of Capriole Investments Charles Edward outlined some on-chain metrics that indicated potential market exhaustion. One was the long-term holder (LTH) inflation rate, a metric that Glassnode monitors.

This metric has been in an uptrend, which is worrisome because the metric tracks the annualized rate of LTHs selling BTC compared to new coins mined. A reading of 2.0 or above usually signals a cycle peak, and the metric stood at 1.9.

The Bitcoin situation is getting perilous - The analyst also looked at the Dormancy Z-score which evaluates the value of spent coins relative to their age and the transacted volume.

In April this metric soared sharply, and market price usually peaks three months after the z-score peak. Together, they indicated selling pressure from holders and caused worry among investors.

Kamala Harris meme coin surges 250% after poor debate showing from Biden

Key points:

• Deliberately misspelled Kamala Horris (KAMA) token based on the Solana network gained 250% in a day

• The rally came after the June 27 Biden-Trump debate

News - The United States President Joe Biden faced increasing pressure to drop out of the Presidential race after a poor showing in the debate against challenger Donald Trump.

Various polls showed that Trump has the lead in the race, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi stated that it is legitimate to ask whether the debate showcased an episode or condition of Biden and Trump, aged 81 and 78 respectively.

The meme coin surged hard but is still tiny - The market capitalization of KAMA stood at $11.15 million, based on data from Coingecko. Despite the nearly fourfold gain over the past week, the token is still quite small and prone to volatility. This might temper bulls’ FOMO as the rest of the market flounders.

Biden is in it to the end - The current president asserted that he will not be pressured into backing out. “I am running. No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end” he is quoted to have said in a Zoom call with campaign staff.

Polkadot spends $87 million in H1 2024, sparks sustainability concerns

Key points:

• Polkadot has spent $87 million in the first half of 2024, raising stakeholder concerns

• Prices sunk toward local lows as debate over inflows and sustainability raged online

News - The Polkadot blockchain has allocated $87 million worth of DOT tokens toward activities in the first half of 2024. This means that the project has “about 2 years of runway left” stated the treasury report, with $245 million worth of DOT tokens left in the treasury, at the time of writing.

It is hard to estimate with more confidence given the volatile nature of crypto. Additionally, the report also noted that the Polkadot Treasury is “becoming more complex and harder to grasp”.

The reaction from the community was mixed - Stakeholders vehemently debated the project's financial sustainability on social media. Victor Ji, co-founder of Manta Network, posted on X (formerly Twitter) that “It is a highly toxic ecosystem that lacks any real value for web3”, adding that it does not focus on users and adoption either.

Marketing activities saw over $36 million spent, with software development being the second largest money sink, taking $23 million to build services such as wallets and tool kits.

Like most of the other large-cap altcoins, DOT has been in a persistent downtrend since April. Bulls had defended the $5.56 support level two weeks ago but the selling pressure was ramping up.

Led by Pendle, Aave, DeFi token prices crater more than the wider crypto market

Key points:

• Pendle lost $3 billion in TVL with the June expiry

• Whale activity could incite further panic in the market

News - The Defi sector has performed worse than the broader crypto markets, losing 9% this week compared to the 5% decline for the others. Pendle was the biggest loser, shedding more than 20% on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Pendle protocol lost $3 billion in total value of assets locked (TVL). This was likely because users opted to withdraw their funds from the protocol since yields were sub-optimal, instead of rolling over their positions at the end of the June lock-up expiry.

A lull in the market compounded by holder disbelief - The Pendle TVL drop could begin to recover soon. Joshua Lim said in an interview that “there is excitement around upcoming tie-ups” which should lead to fresh inflows and assuage the TVL drop.

Other top Defi lending protocols Aave (AAVE) and Lido (LDO) lost 10%-15% in the same period. A whale transferred a combined $10.7 million of both tokens to the Binance exchange, likely for selling.

More stories from the crypto ecosystem

• XRP price struggles, but the altcoin is waiting for a breakout

• Dogecoin’s make-or-break moment: Can DOGE cross the crucial $0.1184 support?

• Vitalik Buterin’s new vision: Is a ‘faster’ Ethereum on the horizon?

• Switzerland bank adds ADA, SOL, XRP to its trading options- ETF speculation?

• Litecoin holders move to sell 928 million LTC: Will prices drop below $70?

Interesting facts

• Blockchain technology can have a positive impact on the audit profession. A research paper on blockchain innovation published in 2022 showed that it could lead to audit firms creating the potential to develop existing services. It also stated that it would allow auditors to save time when validating balances and transactions from the audited company to third parties.

• In 2021, El Salvador moved to make Bitcoin a legal tender in circulation alongside the US Dollar, but a poll from December last year showed that 85% of the people did not use Bitcoin to pay for goods or services in 2023.

• Bitcoin Dominance is a metric that measures the market capitalization of BTC as a percentage of the total crypto market share. The trends of this metric allow traders and investors to understand whether altcoins are over or underperforming BTC over a given period.

Top 3 coins of the day

Pepe (PEPE)

Key points:

• The meme coin has retraced all of the gains it made in May

• The bearish market structure could force further losses

What you should know - Pepe bulls were struggling hard to stem the bearish tide of the past six weeks. In the second half of May, PEPE rallied 92% and the meme coin sector looked healthy. Since then prices have fallen 44% and we are back at square one. The inability to defend the 78.6% retracement level at $0.0000106 meant that a downtrend was in progress on the daily timeframe. The A/D indicator showed some buying pressure came in during the final week of June, but this was not enough to begin a reversal. The RSI was at 36 and signaled a strong downtrend in progress.

Solana (SOL)

Key points:

• Solana surged by 27% in eight days but reversed its direction on Tuesday, losing 14.4% since then

• The Bitcoin price drop combined with a lack of buying pressure kept bulls on the back foot

What you should know - Solana appeared to have turned its trend bullish after climbing past the $150 mark on Tuesday the 2nd of July. However, things have gone quite wrong for the buyers in the past two days. A 14.4% price drop has almost wiped out the gains made in the final week of June and shifted the sentiment bearishly once again. The Awesome Oscillator has been below neutral zero since early June on the daily timeframe to highlight the downward bias. The OBV saw a bounce in the past ten days but this might not be enough to resuscitate the SOL bulls after the rejection from the $150 region. The $120 zone is likely to be tested again.

Toncoin (TON)

Key points:

• TON maintained its bullish market structure on the daily timeframe

• A retest of the $7 support zone might provide a buying opportunity

What you should know - Toncoin has not lost its uptrend since May. This is a sign of strength by itself given the performance of the other major altcoins in the past two months. The RSI slipped below neutral 50 to show bearish momentum was taking over, while the OBV retreated from a local resistance level. The technical indicators showed sellers were shifting the market in their favor at the time of writing, but the price action signaled a range formation that extended from $6.73 to $7.68. The rapid price drop over the past two days showed a retest of the range lows was likely, which might provide a buying opportunity. Another notable support level to buy was the $7 one.