Powell's speech could flip crypto’s fate

August 19, 2025

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Powell’s Jackson Hole speech puts crypto on edge

Key points:

  • Bitcoin slid 7% from its recent $124K high as leverage unwinds and Fed uncertainty loom.

  • Traders await Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, seen as pivotal for September rate expectations.

News - Crypto markets enter the week in a cautious mood as attention shifts to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on August 22. Bitcoin trades near $115,000, down 7% from its $124,000 peak, with over $1 billion in leveraged positions liquidated last week. Analysts agree Powell’s tone could set the path for rates, liquidity, and risk appetite into autumn.

Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz highlighted futures positioning that shows “commercials” not decisively long, limiting upside without a macro spark. Despite nearly $4 billion in inflows to global crypto ETPs, Ethereum leading with record weekly subscriptions, momentum remains fragile.

Leverage, profit-taking pressure prices - Liquidations wiped out $270 million in a single session, with 95% from bullish bets. Ethereum bore the brunt with $170 million in losses. Short-term holders also sent over 20,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss, echoing past correction phases. Analysts warn this behavior often precedes deeper dips unless demand reabsorbs supply quickly.

At the same time, profit-taking has intensified. Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value ratio is at 21%, placing investors firmly in profit and incentivizing selling. Glassnode flagged this as the third major wave of profit-taking in the current cycle.

Will Jackson Hole flip the script? - Jackson Hole’s history as a policy pivot adds weight. Past remarks, from Bernanke’s 2010 QE signal to Powell’s hawkish 2022 stance, shifted global markets. Analysts note BTC acts as a “liquidity barometer,” making Powell’s framing on labor markets and inflation critical.

Market odds lean toward a 25-bps rate cut in September, with CME’s FedWatch showing an 83% probability. Still, if Powell surprises hawkishly, analysts expect a selloff across risk assets. A dovish tilt, however, could revive bids and set up Bitcoin for another run at $120K. At the time of writing, the total crypto market cap stands at $3.84 trillion.

Key points:

  • SharpLink boosted Ether holdings to $3.2B after a $667M buy at near-record prices.

  • Ethereum ETFs swung from $3.7B inflows to $197M in the second-largest daily outflows as unstaking pressures rose.

News - SharpLink disclosed a major Ethereum purchase of 143,593 ETH for $667.4 million at an average price of $4,648, raising its total holdings to 740,760 ETH worth about $3.2 billion. Nearly all of these tokens are staked or in liquid staking programs, generating 1,388 ETH in validator rewards.

The move comes after SharpLink reported a $103 million quarterly loss, positioning the Minneapolis-based company among notable Ethereum corporate holders. It trails BitMine Immersion Technologies, which owns 373,000 ETH across its subsidiaries, totaling 1.52 million ETH worth about $6.6 billion. Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee noted that this makes BitMine the second-largest crypto treasury behind Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which holds 629,376 BTC valued at $72.7 billion.

SharpLink has also strengthened its balance sheet, raising $537 million in August through a $390 million direct offering and $146.5 million at-the-market sale, while retaining $84 million in cash.

ETF flows reverse - After attracting $3.7 billion in inflows earlier in August, spot Ether ETFs saw $197 million in withdrawals on Monday, the second-largest daily exit since launch. BlackRock and Fidelity products led the redemptions with $87 million and $79 million pulled, respectively.

Staking pressure mounts - The outflows coincided with Ether falling below $4,300 and a validator exit queue of roughly 910,000 ETH (about $3.9 billion), pushing wait times above 15 days.

Institutional shift - On-chain data shows institutions and ETFs now hold 10.2 million ETH, while retail wallet balances have dropped to multi-year lows. Analysts suggest corporate treasuries and “shark” wallets are becoming the dominant price drivers as Ether adjusts to shifting liquidity.

Wyoming debuts first state-issued stablecoin

Key points:

  • Wyoming launched the Frontier Stable Token (FRNT), the first U.S. state-backed stablecoin, fully reserved and legally overcollateralized.

  • Backed by U.S. dollars and Treasuries with a 102% reserve rule, FRNT directs income to Wyoming’s School Foundation Fund.

News - Wyoming has officially become the first U.S. state to issue its own stablecoin. The Frontier Stable Token (FRNT) is backed by cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries with a 102% reserve requirement, ensuring overcollateralization. Oversight is handled by the Wyoming Stable Token Commission, chaired by Governor Mark Gordon.

FRNT launched across seven networks: Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, and Base. The state partnered with LayerZero for interoperability, which means FRNT could theoretically extend to more than 100 networks. At launch, public access was not available, but initial purchases are expected on Solana via Kraken in the coming days. Meanwhile, Rain has integrated FRNT on Avalanche with Visa support, enabling payments through Apple Pay and Google Pay.

A public asset, not a CBDC - Unlike corporate-issued stablecoins, FRNT is designed as a public asset, with interest from reserves flowing directly into Wyoming’s School Foundation Fund. State officials emphasized that FRNT is not a central bank digital currency, citing constitutional protections that prevent usage restrictions.

Why it matters - The launch was timed with the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium in Jackson Hole, underscoring the state’s leadership in digital assets. Together with the federal GENIUS Act under debate, Wyoming’s move positions it at the forefront of crypto regulation and innovation.

Tether hires Trump-era crypto chief for U.S. strategy

Key points:

  • Tether appoints Bo Hines, former White House Crypto Council director, as strategic advisor for U.S. expansion.

  • The move signals Tether’s commitment to U.S. compliance and deeper engagement with policymakers.

News - Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin USDT, has brought on Bo Hines as its new strategic advisor for American operations. Hines stepped down from his government role earlier this month after helping shape the landmark GENIUS Act.

In his new role, Hines will guide Tether’s entry into the U.S. market by coordinating policy outreach and cultivating relationships with lawmakers. CEO Paolo Ardoino said the hire reflects Tether’s commitment to U.S. engagement, pointing to Hines’ deep understanding of legislative processes and practical blockchain use cases.

Policy and precedent - Hines previously worked alongside Trump’s crypto and AI czar David Sacks on initiatives to modernize payments, set guardrails for stablecoin issuers, and advance Bitcoin reserve proposals. Tether believes this experience will help it navigate Washington’s complex regulatory environment while reinforcing its U.S. credibility.

Broader implications - Tether has already reinvested nearly $5 billion into American infrastructure and technology. By contrast, it has expressed skepticism over Europe’s MiCA framework, with Ardoino warning that the company will comply with U.S. rules but may scale back in regions that restrict its principles.

The decision could set the stage for a U.S.-focused dollar stablecoin that Tether says may launch in late 2025 or early 2026, pending progress with lawmakers.

Interesting facts

  • Bitcoin reached a record high of  $124,002.49 on August 14, 2025, fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a pro‑crypto U.S. regulatory environment, and strong institutional investment.

  • Japan is set to launch its first yen‑pegged stablecoin, “JPYC,” later in 2025, backed by domestic savings and Japanese government bonds, with zero transaction fees and revenue generated from bond interest.

  • Starting October 8, 2025, UK retail investors will be allowed to buy cryptocurrency‑linked Exchange‑Traded Notes (ETNs): a move by the FCA ending a long-standing restriction and signaling crypto’s growing integration into mainstream regulated finance.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Mantle (MNT)

Key points:

  • MNT climbed to $1.36, posting a 5.35% daily gain and outpacing the largely flat crypto market.

  • Price held well above the MA ribbon, while the Awesome Oscillator printed strong green bars and trading volume stayed elevated.

What you should know:

Mantle extended its winning streak after a strong breakout above key moving averages, with the price sustaining momentum above the MA ribbon cluster. The Awesome Oscillator confirmed bullish strength, showing expanding positive bars, while volume remained higher than average, pointing to continued participation from buyers. Beyond the charts, MNT’s upside was fueled by recent integrations on Bybit, including a MiCA-compliant staking product launched on August 14 and new inclusion in the exchange’s “Double Win” structured product. These moves increased utility and reduced circulating supply, strengthening demand. On-chain data also showed $9.78M in net exchange outflows, reflecting whale accumulation and lowered sell pressure. For now, traders are watching whether MNT can hold above $1.30 as support to mount a push toward the $1.40–$1.59 resistance zone.

Key points:

  • XDC was last seen trading at $0.085, up 3.41% over the past 24 hours, outperforming the broader market.

  • The price tested near-term support at the Bollinger midline while RSI hovered just below 50, and trading volume stayed moderate.

What you should know:

XDC staged a mild rebound after sliding through much of August, with RSI recovering from oversold levels to trade around the neutral zone. The price hovered near the Bollinger mid-band, suggesting a short-term consolidation phase. Volume remained steady, indicating measured interest rather than a breakout-driven move. On the fundamentals side, XDC gained traction after 21Shares launched an XDC ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange on August 14, offering EU institutions regulated access. The move bolstered credibility and aligned with XDC’s trade finance and RWA narrative. Additionally, staking momentum crossed $300M locked, supported by regulatory clarity from the SEC that eased concerns around proof-of-stake. Together, these factors improved sentiment despite the token still being down over the month. For now, traders are eyeing whether XDC can hold above $0.083–$0.085 and attempt a move toward $0.092 resistance, or risk retesting $0.076 support.

TRON (TRX)

Key points:

  • Following recent momentum, TRX hovered at $0.35, showing little change in the last 24 hours but holding gains against a flat market.

  • The 9-day SMA remained beneath the candles, while the DMI kept +DI above -DI, reflecting ongoing bullish control despite muted volume.

What you should know:

TRON maintained its position above short-term support levels, with the 9-day SMA offering a cushion for buyers. The DMI confirmed a bullish trend as the positive directional index stayed above its negative counterpart, while the ADX above 50 underscored strong trend strength despite a slight easing from recent highs. Daily trading volume softened, hinting at consolidation after TRX’s recent run-up. On the catalyst side, TRON announced native MetaMask integration on August 19, expanding access to its ecosystem, including $82B in USDT supply and dApps, for MetaMask’s 30M+ users. This followed July’s MoonPay partnership, strengthening its payment rails. Regulatory sentiment also improved after the Fed rolled back its 2023 crypto oversight framework, lifting institutional appetite. For now, TRX needs to hold $0.34 as support to sustain momentum, with $0.36 resistance as the next level to clear before bulls can target higher extensions.

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