Raoul Pal warns: Crypto waiting room until 2026

August 29, 2025

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

Raoul Pal says crypto cycle could stretch into 2026 as XRP eyes breakout

Key points:

  • Raoul Pal believes the crypto cycle may extend into Q1 or Q2 2026, with Solana, Sui, Dogecoin, and XRP set to rotate out of the “waiting room.”

  • Analysts highlight XRP’s $3 zone as the key resistance, with charts pointing to a structural breakout that could trigger a parabolic rally.

News - Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal says the cryptocurrency market is in a “waiting room” phase, consolidating before the next explosive move. He argued that liquidity dynamics and debt rollovers in major economies may prolong the traditional four-year cycle, potentially extending into the first half of 2026.

According to Pal, Ethereum has already moved out of the waiting phase, with Solana likely next. He added that Sui, Dogecoin, and particularly XRP are preparing to “full port” into higher levels, echoing past cycles where capital rotated down the risk curve.

Analysts are paying close attention to XRP’s price structure. Market strategist Matt Hughes pointed to Gann Fan levels that show historic resistance lines now acting as support, with $3 emerging as the “final boss” barrier. XRP has tested this level multiple times in recent weeks, holding ground above $2.80. A decisive break could pave the way for a move toward all-time highs, with some projections extending into double digits.

Pal’s framing draws comparisons to 2017’s market rhythm, when Bitcoin’s surge preceded a broad altcoin rally. He noted that stablecoin inflows on Binance have already surpassed $1.65 billion, signaling fresh capital waiting to deploy.

Patience before parabolic moves - Pal urged investors not to expect “tick for tick perfection,” emphasizing that patience is required in cycles driven by liquidity. He suggested that altcoin launches outside the top 10 may take longer to catch momentum but remain part of the expansion phase.

Liquidity is the big driver - Pal stressed that global liquidity trends are central to this thesis. With the U.S., EU, China, and Japan all facing large debt rollovers, he believes central banks will be forced to maintain loose monetary policy, creating an “absurdly bullish backdrop” for risk assets like crypto.

Eric Trump hails China’s crypto power, reaffirms $1M Bitcoin bet

Key points:

  • Eric Trump praised China’s role in digital assets while calling the U.S. the leader of the “digital revolution” under his father’s presidency.

  • He doubled down on a $1 million Bitcoin prediction, citing Wall Street support and rising institutional adoption.

News - Speaking at the Bitcoin Asia conference in Hong Kong, Eric Trump lauded China as “a hell of a power” in crypto despite Beijing’s bans on trading and mining. He described the U.S.–China dynamic as central to shaping digital finance and said he would welcome a future discussion on Bitcoin between his father and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The younger Trump emphasized that, under President Donald Trump, the U.S. has made more progress on digital assets in seven months than in the past decade, crediting Wall Street, sovereign wealth funds, and retirement accounts for accelerating adoption. He added that “the United States right now is winning the digital revolution.”

Trump revealed that his own path into crypto was accelerated after U.S. banks cut ties with family businesses during the Biden administration, pushing him toward blockchain ventures. Today, he spends “90%” of his time in the industry, working on projects such as World Liberty Financial, Metaplanet, and American Bitcoin: a mining venture co-owned with his brother Donald Trump Jr. that plans a Nasdaq listing via a merger with Gryphon.

$1M Bitcoin still on the table - Eric Trump reiterated his bold call that Bitcoin will reach $1 million “within several years,” advising investors to “buy now, close your eyes, and hold long term.” Bitcoin is currently trading near $110,000, well below its August peak of $124,500.

Hong Kong as a crypto gateway - While mainland China maintains bans, Hong Kong has emerged as Beijing’s regulatory testing ground. Its new stablecoin framework positions the city as a regional hub for digital assets, aligning with Trump’s praise of its role in the global crypto conversation.

SEI joins ETF race as 21Shares files with SEC

Key points:

  • 21Shares has filed with the SEC to launch the first U.S. SEI ETF, competing with Canary Capital’s earlier application.

  • SEI rebounded from support at $0.30, with analysts eyeing a potential rally toward $0.60 as ETF momentum builds.

News - Crypto asset manager 21Shares has filed an S-1 registration with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to introduce a spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking SEI, the native token of the Sei Network. The move sets up a direct competition with Canary Capital, which applied for an SEI ETF earlier this year.

Under the filing, the ETF would use CF Benchmarks for pricing and Coinbase Custody Trust Company as custodian, with Coinbase also acting as prime broker. 21Shares has left open the possibility of staking SEI tokens to generate additional yield but noted that legal and regulatory hurdles must first be cleared.

The Sei Network, launched in August 2023, is a layer-1 blockchain designed for trading infrastructure across decentralized exchanges and marketplaces. Its token powers gas fees, governance, and DeFi applications.

With SEI currently ranked 74th by market capitalization and trading near $0.30, the ETF push underscores efforts to bring regulated access to smaller-cap crypto assets.

ETF race and market impact - Competition between 21Shares and Canary Capital reflects the broader rush to secure ETF products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. Canary Capital’s April filing proposed direct exposure to staked SEI, potentially offering investors passive income via staking rewards.

Technical context - SEI’s price has bounced 4.2% in the past 24 hours, and analysts such as Michaël van de Poppe highlighted $0.60 as the next upside target if momentum holds. Increased trading volumes during the rebound suggest accumulation at key support levels, aligning with optimism around ETF-driven adoption.

From Solana to Dogecoin: 92 crypto ETPs await green light

Key points:

  • At least 92 crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) filings are pending with the SEC, the majority seeking ETF approval.

  • Solana leads with eight ETF applications, while XRP has seven, highlighting demand beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.

News - Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart confirmed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing 92 crypto ETP applications, underscoring Wall Street’s intensifying interest in regulated digital asset products. While ETP is the umbrella term, most of these submissions are for spot ETFs, including products tied to Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin.

This marks a sharp rise from April, when only 72 applications were in the pipeline, according to Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas. The surge reflects growing institutional appetite for altcoin exposure under a regulated framework.

Altcoins lead the charge - Among pending filings, Solana has eight ETF applications under review, followed closely by XRP with seven. Grayscale and 21Shares are also pursuing Ethereum staking ETFs, while Grayscale is seeking to convert several of its existing trusts, including those for Litecoin, Solana, Dogecoin, XRP, and Avalanche, into ETFs.

Analysts believe approval of these funds could unlock broader altcoin adoption. Bitfinex researchers noted that altcoins will likely need ETF approval before any full-scale rally can take hold.

BlackRock dominates the ETF market - BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) has already drawn over $58 billion in inflows, holding more than 3% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Its iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) has attracted $13 billion and could soon overtake Coinbase as the largest ETH holder.

The revenue impact is striking: IBIT now earns more annual fees for BlackRock than its flagship S&P 500 fund, IVV. With 92 crypto ETPs awaiting decisions, analysts warn that “ETF floodgates” could soon open, further accelerating institutional participation in digital assets.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • Law enforcement, in partnership with Chainalysis, OKX, Binance, Tether, and TRON, froze over $300 million tied to romance and “pig-butchering” crypto scams globally, underlining growing multilateral efforts to disrupt these cross-border fraud networks.

  • A crypto scam in the U.S. saw fraudsters impersonating Customs agents, coercing victims into paying fake fines via Bitcoin. The theft, involving ATM withdrawals and crypto kiosks, prompted urgent public safety alerts.

  • A cybercrime group in northern India ran fake gaming and loan apps that defrauded victims of more than $14 million, with part of the stolen money routed into cryptocurrency walletslinked abroad. Authorities have arrested three suspects and are coordinating with exchanges to trace cross-border transfers.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Pyth Network (PYTH)

Key points:

  • PYTH traded at $0.23, gaining 1.39% after swinging between $0.20 and $0.25 in the session.

  • The Supertrend flashed a buy signal with support near $0.16, while ATR spiked to 0.0199, reflecting extreme volatility.

What you should know:

PYTH staged a breakout this week, with price climbing past $0.22 after hitting intraday highs of $0.25. The Supertrend flipped bullish, positioning support at $0.16, while the Average True Range (ATR) soared to multi-month highs, signaling sharp volatility. Daily trading volume jumped to 859.35 million, far exceeding its recent averages and underscoring the scale of the rally. A major catalyst came from the U.S. Department of Commerce announcing plans to publish GDP data on-chain via Pyth Network, boosting its credibility as critical financial infrastructure. At the same time, ecosystem expansion into Hong Kong equities and DeFi partnerships has reinforced demand for its data feeds. Traders are watching whether PYTH can hold above $0.23 while testing $0.25 as short-term resistance.

Key points:

  • POL traded at $0.24, holding steady after ranging between $0.23 and $0.26 in the session.

  • The Bollinger Bands placed resistance at $0.26 and support at $0.23, while the CMF stayed positive at 0.05, suggesting modest inflows.

What you should know:

POL consolidated near $0.25 after an intraday high of $0.26, with the price resting just above the Bollinger midline at $0.24. The upper band around $0.26 acted as resistance, while the lower band near $0.23 has held as support. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remained in positive territory, reflecting mild capital inflows, and daily trading volume came in at 95.56 million, indicating steady participation. Beyond technicals, Polygon’s DeFi TVL surge to $1.23B, its highest level in 2025, has supported optimism around network adoption. However, this was tempered by $9.88M in derivatives open interest closures, hinting at caution among leveraged traders. For now, holding above $0.24 is key, with a breakout above $0.26 needed to confirm bullish continuation.

Ethena (ENA)

Key points:

  • ENA traded at $0.66, slipping 1.95% after ranging between $0.64 and $0.68 in the session.

  • The Supertrend stayed bullish with support at $0.60, while the RSI hovered near neutral at 51.20 alongside moderating volume.

What you should know:

Ethena pulled back slightly to $0.66, extending its consolidation phase after peaking near $0.80 in mid-August. The Supertrend continued to signal a buy trend, placing support around $0.60, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) steadied close to neutral levels, suggesting balanced momentum. Daily trading volume reached 175.38 million, lower than the surges seen earlier this month, reflecting cooling participation. Fundamentals remained in focus, with Ethena’s $260M buyback program steadily reducing circulating supply, helping offset broader market weakness. At the same time, demand for Ethena’s USDe stablecoin benefited from the GENIUS Act, which curtailed U.S. competition and shifted capital toward alternatives. Traders now watch $0.70 as the immediate resistance level, while $0.60 remains a crucial support to maintain ENA’s bullish structure.

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