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- Retail capping BTC’s $100K surge?
Retail capping BTC’s $100K surge?
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Is retail the reason why BTC hasn’t crossed $100K yet?
Key points:
After an impressive rally that saw Bitcoin reach a $99,645 ATH, the king coin has started to correct.
Retail participation remained unimpressive, below -0.5, showing that this cohort is yet to join the party.
News - After reaching an all-time high of $99,645 in the last week, Bitcoin saw a sizable retracement. Its price dropped to $93,408.07 at press time as BTC rose a meager 0.36% in the last 24 hours.
Retail traders yet to step in - According to a recent CryptoQuant analysis, the Korea Premium Index, which measures retail participation, remained below -0.5. This is different from historical trends, as the Index has often spiked to extreme levels before Bitcoin reached its peak.
Grounds for additional momentum? - This is a spot of good news for Bitcoin’s rally. The ongoing rally appears to be largely driven by institutional investors and ETF participation. This leaves room for extra momentum once retail enters the market.
Investors turn to HODLing - As Bitcoin breached the $90K mark, exchange outflows spiked significantly. On the 25th of November, more than 75K BTC left exchanges. This trend indicated that investors were looking towards self-custody, signaling long-term intentions. However, the Open Interest surged an impressive 62.58%, reaching $132.86B.
Caution remains - This disparity indicated that even though the total value of contracts had declined, there was an increase in the number of active positions in the market. Notably, traders were opening positions in anticipation of Bitcoin rising further. But caution remained prevalent in the market.
Ethereum shows strength, driving hopes of an altcoin season
Key points:
If Ethereum’s recent price action continues, the altcoin season could be around the corner.
The rise of altcoins, alongside the fall of Bitcoin below its ATH, further propelled ‘altcoin season‘ calls.
News - Jake Ostrovskis, an options and OTC trader at Wintermute, pointed out that the upbeat outlook for ETH has been pushing capital towards altcoins. He mentioned that for a full-blown 'altcoin season,' #ETHBTC needs to maintain strength for more than just a few sessions. So far in 2024, each bid has been hit hard, making this trend crucial as we head towards the end of the year.
Bitcoin dominance - Analyst Nicholas Merten had similar insights on Bitcoin’s dominance. He suggested that the current atmosphere suggested caution and readiness for trading opportunities. Notably, altcoins appeared to be heating up as Bitcoin approached significant milestones. Specifically, others, which tracks the altcoin sector exclusive of the top 10 tokens, had reclaimed key levels and was above the 200-day MA at press time.
Not all altcoins in the mix - However, Blockchain Center’s Altcoin Season Index revealed that the altcoin season was not yet in. Only half of the top 50 tokens were outperforming Bitcoin currently, so the index stood at 50%. For a full-blown altcoin season to occur, the index should be over 75%.
Can altcoins beat Bitcoin this time? - There were similar altcoin momentum spikes in July and September, but they fizzled out when BTC's dominance spiked.
As per Glassnode, a full-blown altcoin rally could only happen if BTC surges above $100K, followed by a drop in market dominance. They said:
"Eyes on $100K—though a market shakeout may come first!"
Global M2 falls: Bitcoin correlation raises concerns
Key points:
An analyst drew a “shockingly accurate“ correlation between Bitcoin and the Global M2 as BTC lost $5,000 in value.
If the correlation holds, the king coin could fall back to $70K.
News - In a recent X (formerly Twitter) post, analyst Joe Consorti pointed out that Bitcoin has been following the Global M2 money supply (which includes cash and short-term bank deposits) with about a 70-day delay since September 2023.
Bitcoin follows Global M2 chart - Historically, the growth of the M2 money supply has been linked to Bitcoin bull runs. When M2 increases, it often signals inflation, leading investors to turn to riskier assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Consorti warned, "I don't want to alarm anyone, but if this trend continues, Bitcoin could see a 20-25% correction." The next day, he simply added, “So far, this correlation is shockingly accurate.”
Differing opinions emerge - Not everyone agrees with Consorti's forecast. Market commentator David Quintieri argued that Bitcoin is too volatile to track against anything, suggesting that such comparisons are merely distractions and that the stock market might be a more realistic benchmark.
Glassnode's lead analyst, James Check, pointed out that much of the M2 decline is due to the strength of the dollar, which effectively devalues the M2 of the rest of the world.
Explaining the correlation - Historically, the growth of the M2 money supply has been linked to Bitcoin bull runs. When M2 increases, it often signals inflation, leading investors to turn to riskier assets like Bitcoin as a hedge. Bitcoin's price tends to rise alongside the M2 money supply due to these inflationary pressures.
Financial literacy at ‘dangerously low‘ levels in the crypto community
Key points:
Even as Bitcoin trades near its ATH, the financial literacy of the crypto community leaves much to be desired.
Traders appeared to be navigating blind in the current market, and most of them lack the foundational knowledge required to succeed.
News - A recent study by the crypto gaming startup PiP World found that the financial literacy rate within the crypto community is around 25%, which is significantly lower than the average financial literacy rate in the United States, which is about twice as high. The report analyzed 12,045 anonymous responses from crypto market participants, collected between March 2022 and October 2024.
“Dangerously low“ levels - PiP World CEO Saad Naja noted that while the crypto community's financial literacy rate is only 8% lower than the global average, it is still "dangerously low." The report's findings highlighted that many traders were navigating the market without the foundational knowledge needed to succeed. Also, in another troubling spot of news, traders confessed to often acting in a “reactive, impulsive and neurotic” fashion. 76% of respondents expressed regret about their investment decisions.
Whales are most financially literate - The study also highlighted that whales, the largest holders in the community, have the highest crypto financial literacy rates of 96%. This cohort was followed by HODLers, who have a financial literacy rate of 80%. The third-most literate group, speculative traders, have a rate of 64%.
Least literate groups - The report further found that day traders, who make up 6% of crypto investors, have the lowest financial literacy rate at 27%. On the other hand, pump and dumpers, representing 18% of crypto investors, have a financial literacy rate of 45%.
More stories from the crypto ecosystem
Interesting facts
At one point, China used to account for about 65% of all cryptocurrency mining. But this came to a screeching halt in 2021, when the nation started cracking down on companies that used their equipment for crypto mining. Regardless, the country has a massive interest in blockchain technologies, with a whopping 84% of the world’s blockchain patents belonging to China.
Cryptocurrencies have seen the fastest adoption rate of any technology in history. India leads in this sector, with the highest global crypto adoption rate of 29%. On the other hand, Germany has the lowest crypto adoption rate of 6%.
On average, 33 cryptocurrencies are created every week. More than 22k cryptocurrencies have been designed since the creation of Bitcoin in 2009. So, around five new cryptocurrencies are created every day.
Top 3 coins of the day
Fantom (FTM)
Key points:
At press time, FTM was trading at $1.08.
The coin continued to gain over the last 24 hours, rising by over 10%, but indicators suggested a trend reversal soon.
What you should know:
Fantom gained 48% in November, making the altcoin one of the biggest gainers this month. As a result, FTM’s MVRV ratio saw a massive spike. This was, however, a cause for concern, as the indicator had reached 2.85 — this is a sign of FTM being overbought, prompting concerns about a trend reversal. Adding to these concerns was FTM’s Fear and Greed Index, which was at 79. This was another indication that though investors were currently bullish, it would not be long before another price reversal. The RSI was at 69.23, which is neutral according to market sentiments. But if the RSI continues to rise, it will not be long before bears take over. Keeping Fantom’s current movements in mind, $ 0.97, $ 0.86, and $ 0.80 are the most important support levels to watch for, while $ 1.15, $ 1.21, and $ 1.32 are the key resistance levels.
dogwifhat (WIF)
Key points:
At press time, WIF was trading at $3.05.
The memecoin was down by about 8.16% over the last 24 hours, making it one of the top losers during this period.
What you should know:
Investor interest in dogwifhat rose following Robinhood’s listing of WIF. The memecoin rose 13% in an hour, reaching a weekly high of $3.65 before consolidating and eventually dropping. At press time, WIF was trading at $3.05. On the 4-hour chart, the Stoch RSI looked extremely volatile. After trading at overbought levels in recent days, the indicator plunged to -1.84 then quickly rose to 25.47, showing that bulls and bears remained in a struggle, with increasing potential for a bullish reversal. WIF’s market capitalization was around $3.3 billion at this time as well, making the memecoin the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap. If dogwifhat can break through its support levels of $ 2.97, $ 2.77, and the strongest one at $ 2.47, it can chart a straight path to $5. Currently, its resistance levels are at $ 3.48, $ 3.78, and $ 3.98.
Celestia (TIA)
Key points:
At press time, TIA was trading at $8.58.
It was up by 10.35% in the last 24 hours, making it a top gainer in the last 24 hours per CoinMarketCap.
What you should know:
Celestia (TIA) has been on a roll over the past week, surging an impressive 64% in the last seven days. This movement catapulted TIA’s market cap to $3.60B at press time. The altcoin’s market sentiment was extremely bullish, with the Fear and Greed Index at 79. This bullishness was majorly sparked by TIA crossing the important resistance level of $7.34, as traders are now looking to target the $12.08 mark. The RSI was 68.30 at press time, which was neutral but dangerously close to the overbought level. If the RSI crosses this level, bears could take over, prompting a trend reversal. This was further corroborated by the CMF, which had a score of -0.07, indicating slight selling pressure. When the CMF is below zero, it suggests that there is more selling than buying. However, the MFI was 62.40. This is a bullish sign as it means that there is a strong inflow of money currently. So, TIA’s next move remains uncertain — the upcoming week will be crucial for the altcoin.
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