September Altseason? Coinbase says ETH leads

August 15, 2025

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Coinbase flags September Altseason as Ethereum takes the lead

Key points:

  • Bitcoin dominance slipped from 65% in May to about 59% in August, while altcoin market value climbed more than 50% since early July.

  • Coinbase cites institutional demand for ETH, improving liquidity, and a supportive macro backdrop as drivers for a potential September altseason.

News - Coinbase’s latest outlook argues that a full altcoin season could be weeks away, with Ethereum positioned to lead. Altseason is defined as a period when at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days. The CoinMarketCap Altseason Index is still in the low 40s, but Coinbase points to declining Bitcoin dominance, rising altcoin market capitalization, and a rebound in liquidity as conditions that could push the market toward that threshold.
Institutional activity around Ethereum is a key pillar. Digital asset treasuries hold nearly 3 million ETH, and Bitmine Immersion Technologies has acquired about 1.15 million ETH this year. Coinbase’s liquidity gauge, which tracks stablecoin issuance, trading volumes, and order book depth, has turned higher after six months of decline. If macro conditions stay supportive, a rotation from Bitcoin into large caps like ETH, followed by mid and small caps, could build through September.

Data check - Altseason trigger sits at 75% of top 50 alts outperforming BTC over 90 days. Current readings show early signals: CoinMarketCap’s index in the low 40s, Blockchain Center at 53, and CryptoRank at 50. Bitcoin dominance is near 59% after peaking above 65% in May. Altcoin market cap has risen more than 50% since early July to roughly 1.4 trillion dollars.

Liquidity and leadership - Coinbase highlights tighter spreads and deeper books as liquidity improves. Its liquidity index has started to recover, suggesting easier entry and exit for larger players. The firm expects rotation to start with blue chips such as ETH, then extend to mid and small caps as sentiment and participation broaden.

SEC delays Solana ETF verdict to October as staking fund sees record demand

Key points:

  • The SEC has delayed decisions on multiple spot Solana ETF proposals until October 16, the final allowable deadline in this review cycle.

  • The first US Solana staking ETF, SSK, hit record $13M daily inflows and $66M trading volume on August 14, pushing AUM above $150M.

News - The US Securities and Exchange Commission has postponed its decision on spot Solana ETF filings from Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital, invoking its final 60-day extension to set a hard deadline of October 16, 2025. The regulator cited the need for more time to assess market integrity, investor protections, and Solana’s regulatory classification as either a security or commodity.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart expects approval by mid-October, with further delays unlikely. Approval odds are seen as high given the pro-crypto stance of the current administration and ongoing dialogue between issuers and the SEC. Several other issuers, including VanEck, Grayscale, ProShares, and Fidelity, have Solana ETF applications pending.

While the SEC deliberates, the REX Shares Solana Staking ETF (SSK) is drawing strong investor interest. On August 14, it posted record inflows of $13 million and $66 million in daily volume, its highest since launching on July 2. Assets under management have surpassed $150 million in just six weeks, underscoring growing appetite for Solana-linked products despite a 6% drop in SOL’s price over the past day.

BlackRock stays out - BlackRock has confirmed it will not enter the Solana ETF market for now, focusing on its Bitcoin and Ethereum offerings. Analysts say this stance could influence other large asset managers’ approach to Solana exposure.

Market implications - Analysts warn the October verdict could set a precedent for other altcoin ETFs. A green light could accelerate institutional adoption, while rejection may reinforce regulatory caution for non-BTC/ETH products.

Bessent’s Bitcoin reversal rattles markets, sparks industry frustration

Key points:

  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reversed his position on Bitcoin purchases twice in one day, triggering a $55B drop in BTC’s market cap.

  • He now says the US remains committed to “exploring budget-neutral pathways” to expand its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

News - Bitcoin markets swung sharply on Thursday after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave conflicting statements about future government BTC purchases. In a morning interview with Fox Business, Bessent said the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would be limited to existing holdings valued at $15–20 billion, ruling out new buys. The comments knocked Bitcoin from $121,073 to $118,886 within 40 minutes, after it had touched a record $124,000 overnight.

Later that day, Bessent backtracked in a post on X, saying Treasury is “committed to exploring budget-neutral pathways to acquire more Bitcoin to expand the reserve” in line with President Trump’s March executive order. The Reserve, built on confiscated BTC from law enforcement seizures, currently totals 198,012 coins worth about $23.5 billion.

Industry figures remain skeptical after five months of “exploring” without action. Braiins CEO Eli Nagar accused Treasury of avoidance, while El Salvador adviser Max Keiser mocked the repeated use of the term. Some lawmakers note that congressional approval may be required for budget-neutral purchases, with Senator Cynthia Lummis urging action on her BITCOIN Act.

Legislative roadblocks - Congressional sign-off may be necessary for budget-neutral BTC buys. This could slow implementation of Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan, which also includes a Digital Asset Stockpile for other cryptocurrencies.

Market impact - Despite the clarification, BTC hovered near $118,500 by late Thursday, still down over 4% from its highs. Analysts say the whiplash adds uncertainty for traders watching US government crypto policy as a potential market catalyst.

Hong Kong bans smart contracts in cold wallets under tough new custody rules

Key points:

  • The SFC has rolled out immediate custody requirements for licensed crypto platforms, including a ban on smart contracts in cold wallets.

  • New standards mandate hardware-based security, address whitelisting, and 24/7 threat monitoring.

News - Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) has issued strict new custody rules for licensed virtual asset trading platforms (VATPs), aiming to strengthen client asset protection and tighten operational controls. The guidance, effective immediately, includes a ban on using smart contracts in cold wallet implementations, citing the need to minimise online attack vectors.

Licensed custodians must deploy certified hardware security modules, store keys offline in air-gapped environments, and implement strict multi-factor physical access controls. Withdrawals will be limited to whitelisted addresses, with continuous monitoring by a 24/7 security operations center. Operators must also verify transactions systematically, oversee third-party wallet providers, and subject systems to independent audits.

The measures follow an SFC review earlier this year that found weaknesses in some platforms’ cyber defenses, and rising overseas security incidents that caused substantial client losses. Officials say the new standards will also anchor a forthcoming licensing regime for standalone virtual asset custodians.

Industry reactions are mixed. Supporters argue the move sets a clear benchmark and could reduce major security incidents, while some warn the cost and complexity could push smaller players out, concentrating the market among larger custodians.

Part of a bigger plan - The custody rules align with the Infrastructure and Safeguards pillars of the SFC’s ASPIRe roadmap, launched in February to expand regulated product access while tightening oversight.

Broader regulatory push - Hong Kong’s crypto framework is expanding rapidly, with spot BTC and ETH ETFs approved in April, a stablecoin licensing regime effective August 1, and new OTC and staking rules for licensed operators. The SFC is also consulting on a custodian licensing bill, with public comments open until August 29.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • Scammers are exploiting a technique called "crypto address poisoning", manipulating transaction histories so users unknowingly send funds to fraudulent addresses. This method siphoned off $1.6 million in crypto in just the past week, surpassing all recorded losses from March 2025.

  • A covert North Korean operation using over 30 fake identities infiltrated crypto projects as developers, culminating in a $680,000 theft via the Favrr marketplace in June 2025, uncovered through compromised device data.

  • Scammers aired a deepfake promo featuring Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak, using doctored interviews to display a fake Bitcoin wallet and promise to “double your crypto”. Despite multiple takedown requests, YouTube has repeatedly failed to remove it.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Aerodrome Finance (AERO)

Key points:

  • At press time, AERO was trading at $1.42, marking an 8.92% gain in the last 24 hours.

  • The Parabolic SAR dots remained below the candles, while the MACD histogram held in positive territory, reflecting sustained bullish momentum.

What you should know:

AERO carried its bullish run forward, gaining on the back of a major Coinbase DEX integration that opened access to over 100 million potential users. This development has positioned Aerodrome as a liquidity hub for the Base network, boosting trading volumes and protocol visibility. On-chain data also showed a sharp drop in exchange reserves alongside a 161% rise in whale holdings since June, suggesting large investors are locking tokens into governance to capture protocol revenue. Technically, the token traded near the upper Bollinger Band, with momentum indicators supporting upside potential. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.50–$1.60, while support rests around $1.25. Sustained demand and continued Base network activity could help AERO retest higher targets, though elevated leverage in derivatives markets warrants caution.

Key points:

  • At press time, HYPE traded at $48.52, reflecting a 6.66% rise in the last 24 hours and building on its nearly 18% weekly climb.

  • The price approached the upper Bollinger Band, while the Squeeze Momentum Indicator flipped green with rising bars, signaling strengthening bullish momentum.

What you should know:

HYPE rallied as record platform activity drove trader interest, with $29B in daily volume and $7.7M in fees on August 15, much of which is channeled into its token buyback mechanism. Volume expansion supported the upward move, and the price neared resistance at $49.75, its July all-time high. A sustained breakout above this level could open the path toward $52.50, while immediate support lies near the mid-Bollinger Band around $42. The bullish Squeeze Momentum trend, alongside high participation from the ongoing altcoin rotation, has kept sentiment positive, though traders should watch for potential profit-taking if the breakout attempt fails.

Ethena (ENA)

Key points:

  • At press time, ENA was valued at $0.74, gaining 4.08% over the last 24 hours and adding to its double-digit weekly climb.

  • The price held near the upper Bollinger Band, while the CMF hovered slightly negative at -0.04, reflecting mild capital outflows despite recent gains.

What you should know:

ENA extended its rally on the back of strong whale activity and an aggressive buyback program. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes purchased $1.75M worth of ENA on August 13, reversing prior profit-taking, while large wallets absorbed 45M ENA last week. The foundation’s $260M open-market buyback, ongoing since July 21, has already removed around 8% of circulating supply, tightening liquidity. Price action remained supported by increased trading volumes, with resistance to watch at $0.82 and immediate support near $0.72. Sustained whale inflows and buybacks could reinforce bullish sentiment, though a rejection at resistance might trigger a pullback toward $0.68.

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