Shiba Inu forms bullish triangle

November 29, 2024

Reading time: 5 minutes

Crypto majors surge ahead of Thanksgiving weekend

Key points:

  • Bitcoin moved to $97,200 and noted a 4% gain before the Thanksgiving weekend.

  • Ethereum scaled past the $3,500 resistance zone, reaching a high of $3,684 before retracing.

News - Bitcoin rose as high as $97,208 on Wednesday, November 28th, before falling to $95,500 during the Asian session in the early hours of Thursday. This follows the historical trend of sudden price pumps before the Thanksgiving weekend. In 2023, Bitcoin noted a 5% price gain on Wednesday, November 22nd.

The strength of Bitcoin buoyed the altcoin market as well. Ethereum registered a 9.88% increase for the day, compared to BTC’s 4.24% rally. XRP saw a 5.09% move upward, but unlike the other two, it has gone on to make another 9.76% gains by the early hours of Friday, November 29th.

Traders expect increased Ethereum volatility- Analysts pointed to the rising activity on the Ethereum network on Wednesday. Open Interest had surged by a record 6.32 million ETH, worth $2.25 billion.

The rising activity saw increased fees and revenue, as well as a growth in new wallets. This growth was greater than what was witnessed during the period from May to September when ETH prices trended downward from $3,800 to $2,300 before initiating a recovery in November.

Now, the price of Ethereum is above $3,500, and the bullish conviction is on the rise. This confidence was seen in the performance of other altcoins. DeFi tokens Aave and Uniswap saw a 15.9% and 24% gain respectively.

Shiba Inu bullish chart pattern promises 33% rally

Key points:

  • Consolidation within a symmetrical triangle pattern has spurred Shiba Inu’s bullish bias.

  • The MVRV metric showed some selling pressure from profit-taking activity

News - The second largest meme coin by market capitalization Shiba Inu has been trading within a bullish chart pattern since November 11. The strong uptrend it saw in the first two weeks of the month has given way to a period of consolidation.

The chart pattern in question is a symmetrical triangle pattern. Generally, with an uptrend preceding this pattern formation, an upward breakout is more likely. The projected target in the event of an upward breakout is $0.00003255, a 25% gain from current market prices of $0.00002606.

The Alligator indicator with its three moving averages of 13, 8, and 5 periods showed a lack of momentum on the 4-hour chart. These values are also part of the Fibonacci series, outlining the power of using Fibonacci series’ numbers in moving averages to gauge an asset’s momentum. Additionally, the Awesome Oscillator on the 4-hour timeframe also confirmed the lack of momentum with a reading close to zero.

Shiba Inu not yet overvalued- The MVRV ratio of Shiba Inu currently was nowhere near the historic highs nor lows. It was closer to the neutral value implying that the meme coin was fairly valued. It saw a 4.02% decline in the past 24 hours to reflect profit-taking activity.

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio also showed that the token was neither overvalued nor undervalued. High values for this metric would imply that compared to the volume moved on chain, the asset held a high market value, which in turn could signal a bearish reversal. These on-chain metrics’ neutral values corroborated the technical findings that Shiba Inu was in a phase of consolidation.

The past week’s spot Ethereum ETF inflows outweigh Bitcoin’s inflows

Key points:

  • Spot Ether ETFs took in $224.9 million in four trading days from November 22 to November 27.

  • Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows might have slowed, but November is still a record-breaking month.

News- Spot Ethereum exchange traded funds (ETFs) have brought in more money than their Bitcoin spot ETF counterparts from November 22nd to November 27th. In this period with four trading days, Bitcoin ETFs were able to tally a net inflow of only $35.2 million. By comparison, spot Ether ETFs drew in $224.9 million in net flows.

Measured from November 22nd, Ethereum is up by 7.37%. On November 21st alone, it saw a 9.31% rally, testing the technical resistance zone around the $3,400-$3,500 area.

The Ethereum gains of the past week can be partly attributed to the Ethereum-based Tornado Cash’s victory in a United States appeals court, and partly to the reports that crypto advocate Paul Atkins may replace Gary Gensler as a more crypto-friendly chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The U.S presidential election and the subsequent change in personnel in key departments toward a more favorable regulatory environment could have boosted the Ethereum performance in recent weeks.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still going strong- In November, Bitcoin spot ETFs have drawn in an unprecedented $6.2 billion in net inflows The previous week, from November 18th-22nd, a total of $3.1 billion in net inflows was recorded. Hence, the recent slump was just an anomaly.

It is anticipated that Ethereum, the second-largest crypto asset and the herald of an altseason, would play “catch-up” to the performance of the leaders Bitcoin and Solana. Generally, an asset lagging while others embark on a bullish run is a sign of weakness- but the 160% increase in Ether spot ETF demand since Trump’s election is a sign that this might not be the case for ETH.

AI bot convinced to part with $47,000 in adversarial agent game

Key points:

  • Pro LLM jailbreaker p0pular.eth cracks the puzzle, takes nearly $50,000 in winnings

  • The AI custodian Freysa was tricked into thinking a “new session” was introduced by entering an “admin terminal”

News - A crypto user managed to convince the AI bot Freysa to transfer $47,000 in its holdings to the user in a game that pitted users against each other in a contest of cunning.

The bot Freysa is an autonomous bot that is tasked with guarding the price pool. Participants attempting to win this prize pool must pay a fee to send a message to the bot to convince Freysa to part with the prize pool. The initial costs were relatively cheap, but as more messages came in from attempts to win the pot, the cost of sending a message go higher. A query fee of $443.24 was reached by the end of the experiment.

A portion of this cost goes into the prize pool, with the developer taking a 30% cut. The first 480 attempts were a failure, but p0pular altered Freysa’s understanding of the approveTransfer and rejectTransfer functions.

Jailbreak experience pays off- Other users tried conventional methods to convince Freysa, such as being a security auditor who has found a critical vulnerability and that Freysa should release the funds immediately.

The winner used a different approach. Freysa’s previous instructions were bypassed by pretending the bot is entering a new “admin terminal” to override the previous prompt’s rules. The jailbreak message also included instructions strictly telling the AI to avoid disclaimers such as “I can not do that”.

The next part of the trick involved knowledge that the approveTransfer function is called when the AI is convinced to send its holdings away- information that was already in Freysa.ai’s FAQ. The jailbreak prompt convinced Freysa to trigger this function for accepting incoming transfers, and the next message was the winning message that said that the user would like to contribute $100 to the treasury.

This experiment was designed to find if human ingenuity can convince an AI agent to act against its directives, and the final two messages showcased this creativity.

Crypto hacks and scams

  • MetaWin is an online casino, operating across multiple blockchains, that was hacked in November 2024 for an estimated $4 million. The platform’s “frictionless withdrawal system” had a vulnerability that a hacker exploited to target and drain the platform’s Ethereum and Solana hot wallets. An investigation by ZachXBT identified approximately 115 addresses linked with the attacker’s blockchain address, showing the attack was likely perpetrated by an organization.

  • The M2 crypto exchange saw an incident on October 31. The exchange said that there had been a “cybersecurity incident involving $13.7 million stolen which was swiftly responded to”. Customer funds were restored and the issue was quickly resolved, and the exchange took “full responsibility for any potential losses”. The theft of $13.7 million was in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana from the exchange’s hot wallets.

  • A U.S. government-controlled wallet was drained of $20 million on October 24th. Of these, $19.3 million were returned the next day, according to the on-chain data from Arkham Capital. Pseudonymous blockchain investigator ZachXBT noted that the transfers resembled the playbook of a bad actor, and that the wallet had engaged with several decentralized finance protocols and the funds were moved across a series of transfers that “looked nefarious”.

Top 3 coins of the day

Algorand (ALGO)

Key points:

  • Algorand has gained 13.85% and counting on Friday, November 29th.

  • The break of the 2024 high from March at $0.3299 was significantly bullish.

What you should know:

Algorand has been on a strong uptrend in the second half of November. It faced some resistance at $0.16 on Tuesday, November 12th, but was quick to blast past key resistance levels since then. It has rallied 153% since November 15th, The market structure on the daily chart was firmly bullish. The downtrend since March has been broken- the move beyond the 78.6% retracement level at $0.2794 was the first decisive proof of that, from a technical analysis perspective. To the north, the next targets are at $0.3856 and $0.4758. The A/D indicator was in a strong uptrend alongside the price to reflect strong buying pressure, and the MACD did not indicate momentum has slowed down on the daily timeframe. A revisit of the $0.326 region in the coming weeks would likely represent a buying opportunity. The strong gains of ALGO in recent days saw its Open Interest surge by 67% in the past 24 hours. This signaled intense bullish conviction, but also a potential for futures driving the prices higher, which could result in a pullback.

Uniswap (UNI)

Key points:

  • UNI was unable to defend the $12.94 support zone.

  • The strong swell in trading volume in November reinforced the token’s bullish prospects.

What you should know:

The RSI on the 1-day timeframe stood at 70.6 to indicate strong bullish momentum, and that the asset was in overbought territory. That does not indicate a pullback by itself, but an examination of the 12-hour chart showed a bearish momentum divergence formed over the past four days. The pullback could see Uniswap prices test the bullish breaker block highlighted in cyan at $11.7. This region had been a stern resistance back in April, and again in June. Therefore, a test of this demand zone would likely see UNI resume its uptrend. The OBV has been trending higher since late August, and the increased trading volume in recent weeks accelerated its uptrend. Together, the price action and technical indicators favored the buyers, whose next long-term targets would be $17 and $19.76.

Worldcoin (WLD)

Key points:

  • Worldcoin has reached the 23.6% extension level.

  • A price dip could see the moving averages serve as support.

What you should know:

From March to September, Worldcoin had been in a brutal downtrend. The token shed 89% of its value from the high of $11.97 it reached in March to the $1.318 value it traded at in the first week of September. In the final months of this downtrend, the token formed a descending wedge pattern. This pattern is generally bullish, and WLD bulls followed through on this in the second half of September with a breakout past $1.6. Since then, Worldcoin has maintained its uptrend for the most part, though it saw a deep retracement in late October. In November, the daily timeframe saw a bullish market structure evolve, and the 23.6% Fibonacci extension level at $2.91 was tested. To the north, the next targets are $3.34 and $3.76. Bulls would need to be far more ambitious to reclaim the levels from March, and would need sustained demand. The daily CMF was at +0.09 to show significant capital influx, while the 50 and 100-period moving averages were well below market prices to underline bullish momentum.

How was today's newsletter?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.