Soft CPI rewrites crypto’s Fed outlook

July 14, 2026

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U.S. crypto transfer puts Trump’s no-sell pledge under scrutiny

Key points:

  • U.S. government-linked wallets moved about $288 million in seized Bitcoin and Ether to Coinbase Prime, reviving sale speculation.

  • The Bitcoin appears tied to active criminal cases, potentially placing it outside the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve’s no-sell protection.

News - Arkham data showed the U.S. government moved roughly $288 million in seized crypto to Coinbase Prime on Monday, including about 3,800 BTC worth $235 million and 30,000 ETH worth $53 million.

The Bitcoin came from seizures involving dark web dealer Ryan Farace and the defunct BTC-e exchange, passing through intermediary wallets before reaching Coinbase Prime. The Ether, tied to a money-laundering case involving Oracle employee Brian Krewson, moved directly.

Why the destination raised alarms - Large holders typically keep crypto in cold storage, so transfers to exchange-linked platforms often trigger sale speculation.

Coinbase Prime, however, also provides custody, financing, trading, and asset-staging services. The U.S. Marshals Service selected it in 2024 to manage forfeited digital assets, meaning the move could reflect custody consolidation rather than an imminent sale.

The no-sell rule has boundaries - Trump’s March 2025 executive order bars selling Bitcoin placed in the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Only coins that have completed final forfeiture can enter it.

The transferred Bitcoin appears linked to active criminal cases and may sit outside that protection. Ether is not covered by the Bitcoin restriction and instead falls under the separate Digital Asset Stockpile, which the Treasury can manage within its legal authority.

Large move, limited balance-sheet impact - Government-linked wallets still hold roughly $20.6 billion in crypto, including more than 324,000 BTC. Monday’s transfer remains a small fraction of that total.

Inflation surprise resets the Fed debate for crypto

Key points:

  • U.S. headline inflation fell 0.4% in June, while annual CPI eased to 3.5%, both coming in softer than expected.

  • Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 as yields dropped, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintained that persistent inflation would not be tolerated.

News - U.S. inflation cooled sharply in June, giving crypto and other risk assets an immediate lift. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month, compared with forecasts for a smaller decline, while the annual rate slowed from 4.2% in May to 3.5%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat for the month and rose 2.6% year over year, also below expectations. Lower energy costs helped drive the headline retreat.

A softer print changes the July setup - Bitcoin rose to about $63,400 after the release, while U.S. stock futures advanced and Treasury yields fell. The report also likely undercut rising expectations for a July rate hike, which had accelerated after Fed Governor Chris Waller signaled support for tighter policy if core inflation remained elevated.

Warsh keeps policy caution intact - Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Congress that the central bank had “no tolerance” for persistently high inflation. He also described the labor market as “broadly stable,” limiting pressure for an immediate policy shift driven by economic weakness.

One report does not settle the trend - The June data strengthens the case that inflation may have peaked in May, but the policy path still depends on coming readings. Oil prices fell heavily in June, while renewed increases and concerns about AI-related costs could complicate further progress. For crypto, the immediate relief is clear, but sustained disinflation remains the stronger test.

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CLARITY support widens, but Senate disputes deepen before recess

Key points:

  • Banking and law enforcement groups are backing the CLARITY Act while seeking different changes, exposing unresolved fights over stablecoin rewards and DeFi protections.

  • Negotiations face added pressure as White House adviser Patrick Witt prepares for military leave before the Senate’s August 8 recess.

News - The CLARITY Act is entering a crucial Senate stretch with broader support but no consensus on its language. On July 13, the American Bankers Association, Independent Community Bankers of America, and 76 state associations proposed targeted revisions to Section 404.

Days earlier, the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association (FLEOA) endorsed the bill while requesting changes to its DeFi and investigative provisions.

The deposit fight becomes more specific - Section 404 restricts returns paid for holding payment stablecoins while preserving certain activity-based rewards. Banks want lawmakers to remove “solely” and replace the “economically or functionally equivalent” test with a “substantially similar” standard, arguing the wording could let firms design incentives around the prohibition.

They warn that deposit outflows could reduce funding for mortgages, small businesses, and agricultural lending.

Support is arriving with conditions - FLEOA requested narrower DeFi protections, clearer accountability, and explicit preservation of investigative powers. National Organization of Black Law Enforcement Executives (NOBLE) had backed the legislation nine days earlier, helping counter claims that CLARITY would weaken crypto enforcement.

A deadline handoff adds pressure - Witt, who helped negotiate stablecoin yield and ethics disputes, is expected to begin military leave after July 24. Deputy Director Harry Jung is expected to assume his responsibilities, while Witt reportedly plans to remain involved.

With lawmakers due to begin recess on August 8, unresolved disputes over stablecoin rewards, developer protections, and ethics rules leave little room for delay.

Digital euro enters its rehearsal phase before any launch decision

Key points:

  • The ECB selected 36 banks and payment firms for a 12-month digital euro pilot beginning in the second half of 2027.

  • The test will cover online, offline, in-store, and e-commerce payments, but issuance still depends on EU legislation and Governing Council approval.

News - Europe’s digital euro is moving from design into testing. The ECB chose 36 payment providers, including Deutsche Bank, Revolut, Stripe, and UniCredit, from more than 50 applicants for a pilot involving the ECB and 19 euro-area national central banks.

The beta currency will not have legal tender status. ECB and national central bank staff will act as users, while participating firms and merchants test account access, person-to-person transfers, retail payments, and e-commerce purchases.

A rehearsal, not a launch - The 12-month program will examine technical performance, operational processes, and user experience before any issuance decision. Some providers will support user access, while others will help merchants accept payments or test related services.

Private firms become the test bed - The mix of banks, fintechs, processors, and non-bank providers gives the ECB a broad environment for testing how the digital euro could operate across markets. Officials said strong participation reflects private-sector interest in helping shape Europe’s payments infrastructure.

Europe advances while the U.S. resists - The pilot sharpens the policy divide across the Atlantic. European officials are exploring a digital euro partly to strengthen monetary autonomy, reduce reliance on private payment networks, and address concerns over dollar-backed stablecoins, while U.S. policymakers continue pursuing restrictions on a Federal Reserve-issued CBDC.

A possible 2029 launch remains conditional on EU legislation and a separate decision by the ECB Governing Council.

Wall Street’s New Shopping List

Big money is rotating into a select group of stocks for the second half of 2026.

MarketBeat’s analysts tracked the move and identified 10 companies attracting fresh capital right now.

The updated 10 Best Stocks to Own in 2026 report lays out the tickers, trends, and catalysts.

Interesting facts

  • Monero refused to let its security meter hit zero: Since tail emission began at block 2,641,623 on June 9, 2022, Monero’s block reward has remained at 0.6 XMR per two-minute block, or less when block-size penalties apply, ensuring miner incentives never disappear entirely.

  • Cardano made staking a commitment without captivity: Delegated ADA never leaves the holder’s wallet, remains spendable without a lock-up, and cannot be slashed. If the chosen stake pool underperforms, the delegator risks earning fewer rewards, not losing the ADA principal.

  • Bitcoin’s first reward was sealed before the economy began: The 50 BTC subsidy created in Bitcoin’s genesis block is permanently excluded from the network’s unspent transaction output set, meaning it cannot be spent like subsequent mining rewards.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Injective (INJ)

Key points:

  • INJ returned to the top of its multiweek range, with stronger volume and a positive EWO reading giving this resistance test more weight.

  • Price remained above the 9 SMA at $4.82, while $5.05 to $5.08 is the breakout zone and $4.80 to $4.82 is the first pullback checkpoint.

What you should know:

INJ’s second challenge of range resistance arrived with stronger participation than its earlier attempt. The token rebounded from roughly $4.67 and climbed to $5.05, while volume expanded to 75.47K and the EWO turned positive at 0.340. Price also held above the rising 9 SMA at $4.82, confirming improved short-term momentum, but it remained inside the highlighted $4.92 to $5.08 resistance band. The move came two days before the July 16 Injective Summit in Washington, D.C., where institutional finance, tokenization, and onchain markets are set to take center stage. A sustained break above $5.08 confirms a range escape and shifts attention toward $5.15. Failure at the ceiling leaves $4.80 to $4.82 as the first support area.

Bittensor (TAO)

Key points:

  • TAO slid along its lower Bollinger Band before rebounding to $199.70, but CMF at -0.09 showed that capital flow still favored sellers.

  • The $195 to $196 zone is the immediate floor, while a reclaim of the $206 to $207 midpoint area is needed to signal stronger stabilization.

What you should know:

TAO’s latest bounce lacked the money-flow confirmation needed to call a clean reversal. Price had fallen from roughly $213, tracked the lower Bollinger Band near $195.90, and then recovered modestly to $199.70. CMF improved from deeper negative territory but remained below zero at -0.09, while volume reached just 5.06K on the rebound after heavier selling activity. Lingering concern around the Root Reborn governance proposal remained part of the sentiment backdrop, although Bittensor’s July 10 activation of its Conviction mechanism added a constructive counterweight by introducing locked-stake enforcement for subnet ownership. The $195 to $196 area is the key defense. A move above the Bollinger midpoint at $206.70 strengthens stabilization, while a break below the lower band exposes $193 to $194.

MemeCore (M)

Key points:

  • M surged out of a tight base and into the $1.50 to $1.59 resistance band, while RSI at 70.74 showed momentum had already reached overbought territory.

  • Volume expanded to 10.47K and price stretched well above the 9 SMA at $1.28, making $1.59 the breakout trigger and $1.28 to $1.30 the first pullback checkpoint.

What you should know:

Momentum accelerated before resistance fully gave way. M broke out of its recent $1.20 to $1.30 consolidation and climbed to $1.51, while volume expanded to 10.47K and price moved far above the 9 SMA at $1.28. RSI rose to 70.74, confirming strong buying pressure but also showing the move had become stretched inside the $1.50 to $1.59 resistance zone. The rally followed MemeCore Foundation’s approval of a treasury buyback program worth at least $10 million, although the execution schedule was not disclosed. Separate market-flow data also pointed to positive spot netflows and accumulation among larger holders. A sustained move above $1.59 confirms the breakout, while $1.28 to $1.30 is the first momentum support area.

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