Standard Chartered’s next 33x crypto bet

July 01, 2026

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Citi cuts Bitcoin, Ether targets as ETF outflows deepen

Key points:

  • Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 and cut its Ether target to $2,240 from $3,175 after scrapping its ETF inflow forecast.

  • The reset followed record June outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, although XRP and HYPE funds still attracted inflows, and Cantor said Bitcoin’s bear cycle may be nearing its final stretch.

News - Citi has cut its 12-month Bitcoin and Ether targets after ETF demand weakened sharply and U.S. crypto legislation failed to deliver the catalyst the bank had expected. The bank now expects zero net ETF inflows over the next year, citing weak demand, stalled regulatory progress, and concerns around digital asset treasury selling.

The downgrade followed the worst month on record for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which posted $4.5 billion in June outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $3.55 billion of that total, while Ether ETFs saw $528.99 million in outflows.

Why Citi changed its call - Citi’s earlier outlook depended on fresh ETF demand and progress on U.S. digital asset market structure legislation. With both fading, the bank said supportive macro conditions were not enough to offset weaker flows.

The market reset cut both ways - Talos said Bitcoin and Ether long liquidations totaled $8.35 billion in Q2, reducing leverage across the market. However, thinner order-book depth left crypto less able to absorb renewed selling pressure, even after speculative positions were cleared.

Rotation did not fully break - XRP funds added $59.4 million in June, while HYPE funds drew $161 million. That showed some capital was still rotating inside crypto, even as Bitcoin and Ether products lost demand.

Cantor gave the counterpoint - Cantor Fitzgerald said Bitcoin may be in the late stage of its current bear cycle, with historical patterns pointing to a potential bottom around October. Still, the bank cautioned that macro, regulatory, and geopolitical risks could disrupt that timeline.

Standard Chartered backs Morpho as DeFi infrastructure bet

Key points:

  • Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Morpho with a $60 end-2030 target, implying roughly 33x upside from current levels.

  • The bank said Morpho could scale with DeFi’s projected growth if its Vaults business keeps attracting traditional finance-linked capital.

News - Standard Chartered has initiated coverage of Morpho, framing the DeFi lending protocol as both a lending market and infrastructure layer for onchain banks and asset managers. The bank set a $60 price target for MORPHO by the end of 2030, saying the token could outperform both Bitcoin and Ether over the same period.

The forecast is tied to Standard Chartered’s expectation that assets deployed in DeFi could grow 37x by 2030. Morpho was trading above $2 after the report landed, with sources citing gains of more than 10% to 13% over 24 hours.

Why Morpho stood out - The bank split Morpho’s business into two parts: Morpho Markets, a lending protocol compared with Aave, and Morpho Vaults, which supports onchain asset management and banking use cases. That second layer is the key differentiator in the bank’s thesis.

The TradFi bridge matters - Standard Chartered said Morpho’s growth will depend on Vaults attracting institutional capital. Integrations with Fireblocks, Anchorage, and Taurus, along with vault curators such as Steakhouse Financial, give the protocol distribution channels beyond crypto-native users.

The forecast is still conditional - Morpho’s 0% take rate currently leaves lending income with depositors, which could support adoption. Still, the $60 target depends on deeper traditional finance relationships, tokenization growth, regulatory conditions, and DeFi assets expanding broadly in line with the bank’s long-term forecast.

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Jefferies warns against Circle dip as Open USD tests USDC moat

Key points:

  • Jefferies warned against buying Circle’s dip after Open USD raised new concerns about USDC’s growth, distribution, and market share.

  • The new stablecoin consortium has more than 140 backers, including Stripe, Coinbase, Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, and Google.

News - Circle shares rebounded Wednesday after plunging roughly 17% on Tuesday, but Jefferies said the selloff may not fully reflect rising stablecoin competition. The bank warned that banks, payment firms, fintechs, and crypto companies are moving into stablecoins with built-in distribution networks that Circle did not face when USDC launched in 2018.

The concern centers on Open USD, a stablecoin from Open Standard that is expected to go live later in 2026. Its model lets businesses mint and redeem for free, shares reserve income with partners, and gives participants a role in governance.

Why Open USD stung - Stablecoin reserve income is central to Circle’s business, with Jefferies noting that Circle earns most of its revenue from interest on USDC reserves. Coinbase’s role adds another pressure point because it is both Circle’s major distribution partner and an Open USD backer.

Circle’s defense is scale - CEO Jeremy Allaire argued that USDC’s integrations, liquidity, regulatory approvals, banking relationships, and reserve infrastructure were built over years. He also questioned whether giving away nearly all reserve income would leave enough funding to sustain infrastructure.

The DeFi angle matters - If payment flows shift away from USDC, Aave’s USDC borrowing demand and utilization could face pressure, which may weigh on lending yields over time. Still, OUSD is not fully live yet, and Bernstein and ARK flagged unresolved governance, operational, and coordination risks for a 140-member consortium.

Goliath CEO pleads guilty in $400M crypto Ponzi case

Key points:

  • Former Goliath Ventures CEO Christopher Delgado pleaded guilty to fraud and money laundering tied to a crypto investment scheme prosecutors said raised at least $400 million.

  • Delgado admitted to causing at least $250 million in investor losses and agreed to forfeit properties, vehicles, watches, luxury bags, jewelry, and crypto accounts.

News - Christopher Alexander Delgado, the former CEO of Goliath Ventures, has pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering in a crypto Ponzi case. Prosecutors said Goliath, formerly Gen-Z Venture Firm, solicited investors from January 2023 through January 2026 with promises of monthly returns from crypto liquidity pools.

Instead, investor money was used to pay earlier investors, process withdrawals, fund business events, and support Delgado’s personal spending. He faces up to 20 years in prison for each fraud count and up to 10 years for money laundering.

The pitch hid the structure - Goliath promoted monthly payouts tied to crypto liquidity pools, but prosecutors said new investor funds were used to meet obligations to earlier participants. That structure allowed the operation to keep paying returns and withdrawals while new investor money continued coming in.

The luxury trail exposed spending - Prosecutors said Delgado used investor funds to buy at least six homes, Lamborghinis, Rolls-Royces, Rolex watches, Louis Vuitton bags, and custom Tiffany jewelry. Under the plea deal, he agreed to surrender eight properties, 11 vehicles, 30 watches, more than 50 luxury bags and wallets, and at least 29 pieces of jewelry.

The fallout widened - Delgado’s sentencing is scheduled for October 8. The case has also drawn scrutiny of financial institutions, with investors suing JPMorgan and alleging the bank processed about $253 million in Goliath-linked deposits while ignoring red flags.

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Did you know?

  • Taiwan just turned crypto licensing into law: Taiwan’s legislature passed the Virtual Asset Service Act, setting licensing rules for crypto platforms and stablecoin issuers, along with penalties for fraud and market manipulation. The move pushes Taiwan from AML-era oversight into a fuller digital asset rulebook.

  • AI agents can now meet a crypto paywall: Publishers and API providers using AWS CloudFront and WAF can enable x402 payments, letting AI agents pay for content or API access through an HTTP 402 flow. That turns crypto payments into a machine-to-machine revenue layer, not just a consumer checkout tool.

  • Bitcoin just helped fund a Fannie Mae-backed mortgage: Better and Coinbase funded the first U.S. Fannie Mae-backed mortgage backed by Bitcoin, with the product initially supporting Bitcoin and USDC as pledged collateral. The setup lets qualified borrowers pursue a conforming mortgage without selling their digital assets first.

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Top 3 coins of the day

MemeCore (M)

Key points:

  • M ripped back above $1 after its post-crash base, jumping to around $1.15 on the latest 4H candle, but the Higher High Lower Low indicator still marked the move as a lower high.

  • Awesome Oscillator flipped positive at 0.10104, while volume rose to 324.13K, giving the rebound force but leaving $1.18-$1.20 as the first real test.

What you should know:

MemeCore’s chart seemed like a damaged market trying to stage a comeback. After the token crashed from around $2.92 to $0.51 last week, buyers pushed M back above $1, with the latest 4H candle up 25.93% near $1.15. The Awesome Oscillator turned positive at 0.10104 and volume climbed to 324.13K, showing fresh momentum behind the rebound. Still, the Higher High Lower Low indicator labeled the latest swing as a lower high, so $1.18-$1.20 is the resistance zone to monitor. The rally was helped by speculative meme coin rotation and short-term volume chasing, but ZachXBT-linked supply concerns and thin liquidity keep the recovery fragile.

Cardano (ADA)

Key points:

  • ADA bounced to around $0.157 after buyers defended the $0.141-$0.150 range, but the Higher High Lower Low indicator still marked the latest swing as a lower high.

  • DMI favored buyers, with +DI at 30.47 above -DI at 11.77 and ADX at 27.79, while volume rose to 53.03M as ADA tested $0.156-$0.160.

What you should know:

Cardano’s rebound looked like whales trying to build a floor after June’s steep decline. ADA climbed near $0.157 on the latest 4H candle, backed by 53.03M in volume and a DMI setup where +DI at 30.47 stayed well above -DI at 11.77. Still, the Higher High Lower Low indicator marked the move as a lower high, so $0.156-$0.160 is the zone to clear before the bounce looks stronger. Beyond the chart, wallets holding 10 million to 100 million ADA raised their supply share from 37.66% to 38.13%, while SecondFi’s planned $2.4 million stolen ADA return helped support sentiment.

Solana (SOL)

Key points:

  • SOL surged to around $77.41 as buyers pushed above the upper Bollinger Band near $76.90, turning $77.5-$78 into the immediate breakout test.

  • CMF stayed strong at 0.28 and volume rose to 878.33K, showing capital inflow backed the move, but a slip below $76.90 could pull price back inside the band.

What you should know:

Solana’s move had the cleanest institutional bid. SOL climbed to around $77.41 on the latest 4H candle, pushing above the upper Bollinger Band near $76.90 while CMF held at 0.28. That showed the move had capital inflow behind it, not just price expansion. Volume also rose to 878.33K, supporting the push into $77.5-$78 resistance. If SOL cools, $76.90 is the first level to monitor, followed by the middle band near $73.70. Beyond technicals, Forward Industries’ purchase of over 500,000 SOL, the World prediction market launch inside Phantom, and Solana’s OUSD stablecoin validation supported the institutional-and-ecosystem bid.

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