Tariff whiplash hits Bitcoin

February 23, 2026

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Supreme Court blocks Trump tariffs as markets whipsaw, crypto tests key levels

Key points:

  • The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s sweeping tariffs, but a swift 15% replacement levy renewed volatility across markets.

  • Bitcoin briefly dipped below $65,000 as investors reacted to shifting trade policy, even as some analysts described the move as a temporary “crypto squall.”

News - The US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act when imposing broad “Liberation Day” tariffs. Markets showed only a muted reaction at first.

Bitcoin fell to roughly $66,900 before rebounding near $67,800, while equities moved modestly higher. Within hours, Trump introduced a new 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, altering the legal basis but reviving policy uncertainty. By Sunday night, Bitcoin had dropped toward $64,000, Ethereum slipped below $1,900, and Solana fell under $80.

Wall Street’s broader response remained relatively calm. The S&P 500 hovered near flat, the Nasdaq dipped slightly, the US dollar edged lower, and gold continued climbing as investors navigated the latest developments.

A “squall,” not structural damage - Fundstrat’s Tom Lee characterized Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown as a macro-driven “squall” rather than evidence of structural weakness. He pointed to rising Ethereum transaction activity, accelerating tokenization, and deeper Wall Street integration as signs that underlying crypto adoption remains intact.

Lee also noted that tariff shifts could influence inflation dynamics and give the Federal Reserve more flexibility, a backdrop he described as potentially supportive for risk assets.

From debanking to digital assets - Separately, JPMorgan acknowledged in court filings that it closed accounts tied to Trump and his businesses in February 2021. Trump’s lawsuit claims the move was politically motivated, while the bank maintains accounts are closed when they pose legal or regulatory risk.

Members of the Trump family have previously said that being debanked contributed to their deeper involvement in crypto ventures, including World Liberty Financial.

For now, markets appear steadier than during prior tariff shocks, even as trade policy and legal disputes continue to ripple through traditional and digital assets alike.

Stablecoins could fuel up to $1T in Treasury demand as market eyes $2T by 2028

Key points:

  • Standard Chartered maintains its $2T stablecoin market cap forecast by end-2028, even as growth temporarily stalls near $300B.

  • That expansion could generate $0.8T to $1T in fresh U.S. Treasury bill demand, potentially reshaping federal debt issuance.

News - Stablecoin issuers are becoming structural buyers of U.S. government debt. In its latest report, Standard Chartered reiterated its forecast that the stablecoin market will reach $2T by the end of 2028, up from roughly $300B to $320B today.

Although the bank trimmed earlier projections for Treasury bill absorption, it still expects $0.8T to $1T in incremental demand for short-term T-bills as issuers allocate reserves into high-quality liquid assets. The shift follows the passage of the GENIUS Act, which requires regulated stablecoin issuers to concentrate reserves in short-dated Treasuries.

Front-end pressure and issuance shifts - When combined with projected Federal Reserve purchases estimated between $1T and $1.2T through reserve management operations and reinvestments, total new T-bill demand could reach roughly $2.2T by 2028. That compares with approximately $1.3T in projected supply if issuance patterns remain unchanged, implying a potential shortfall near $0.9T.

Standard Chartered analysts Geoffrey Kendrick and John Davies suggest the Treasury could respond by increasing the share of bill issuance. Reallocating around $0.9T from longer-dated bonds to T-bills could even allow 30-year bond auctions to pause for three years.

The Treasury has acknowledged it is monitoring growing private-sector demand for bills in its February Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

Cyclical pause, not structural shift - Despite stablecoin growth slowing amid weaker digital asset markets and post-GENIUS adjustments, the bank describes the stall as cyclical rather than structural.

Issuers such as Tether and Circle already hold tens of billions of dollars in short-term Treasuries as reserves. As stablecoin adoption expands, particularly across global markets, that reserve allocation may increasingly anchor demand at the front end of the yield curve.

Some market participants cautioned the macro impact may be marginal unless stablecoins reach significant scale.

$60B whale transfers, treasury selling streak, and ETF outflows cloud Bitcoin’s $66K range

Key points:

  • Whale wallets have moved 900,000 BTC worth roughly $60B since February 13 as Bitcoin trades between $65,000 and $70,000.

  • Corporate treasuries and ETFs show signs of distribution, even as long-term holders and some institutions remain bullish.

News - Bitcoin is consolidating near $66,000, caught between heavy supply shifts and pockets of conviction buying. On-chain data shows large holders have moved approximately 900,000 BTC since February 13, valued at around $60B, raising concerns about potential distribution during a range-bound phase.

Price action remains confined between $65,000 and $70,000. A breakdown below $64,142 could open the door to a move toward $60,000, while a sustained push above resistance levels near $71,963 and $74,789 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup.

Treasury selling and institutional pullback - Public Bitcoin treasury companies have logged their first three-week selling streak, with smaller firms trimming holdings and Bitcoin mining company Bitdeer reducing its corporate Bitcoin balance to zero as it pivots capital toward AI infrastructure. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have also recorded five consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling about $2.6B in 2026 so far.

Crypto hedge funds are holding their highest cash levels in nearly a year, and some report zero exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Analysts attribute the defensive stance to weaker reward-to-risk profiles and macro uncertainty.

Conviction still present - Not all capital is retreating. Strategy completed its 100th Bitcoin purchase, acquiring 592 BTC for roughly $39.8M, bringing total holdings to 717,722 BTC. Meanwhile, Mexican billionaire Ricardo Salinas reiterated his support, stating he maintains 70% of his liquid assets in Bitcoin and urging followers to buy during downturns.

On-chain data also shows short-term supply maturing into longer holding cohorts, signaling reduced panic selling.

The next major move may be defined by whether Bitcoin breaks below $64,142 or reclaims higher resistance levels within the current $65,000 to $70,000 range.

Big buys, bigger losses: Ethereum’s corporate bet faces a test

Key points:

  • BitMine added roughly $98M in ETH last week, lifting holdings to over 4.42M tokens despite more than $8B in unrealized losses.

  • Founder-led selling, rising exchange inflows, and a bearish technical breakdown are increasing downside risks toward $1,500.

News - BitMine Immersion Technologies continued expanding its Ethereum treasury, reporting a weekly purchase of 51,162 ETH worth roughly $98M, bringing total holdings to more than 4.42M ETH, or about 3.66% of total supply. 

Separate reporting also cited a recent acquisition of 45,749 ETH at an average price of $1,992. The firm has spent an estimated $16.4B building its position, which is now valued at roughly half that amount, leaving unrealized losses exceeding $8B as ETH trades near $1,900.

Despite the drawdown, BitMine says it generates approximately $171M in annualized staking revenue from over 3M staked ETH.

Mounting pressure across corporate holders - The downturn extends beyond one balance sheet. ETH has fallen about 60% over the past six months and remains well below BitMine’s average cost basis of $3,843. Other corporate holders, including SharpLink Gaming and The Ether Machine, are also facing sizable paper losses.

At the same time, smart money traders are net short roughly $67M in ETH. However, whales accumulated about $44M in spot ETH across 41 wallets last week, while newly created wallets in the past 15 days purchased approximately $245M worth of ETH.

Founder selling and liquidity signals - Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has accelerated his planned sales, offloading more than 8,800 ETH in February, including 1,869 ETH worth $3.67M over two days. These transactions are part of a previously disclosed plan to liquidate 16,384 ETH to fund ecosystem initiatives.

Exchange dynamics add further sensitivity. Ethereum inflows to Binance have reached their highest level since November 2025, totaling about $33.3B over the past 30 days. Declining staking demand may also increase liquid supply in the short term.

Technically, ETH has broken below its bear pennant structure, with a projected downside target near $1,475 and psychological support around $1,500. Bulls would need to reclaim the pennant’s lower trendline and push above the 20-day EMA near $2,085 to invalidate the bearish outlook.

Did you know?

  • When everyday wallets started thinking global instead of local: A new survey shows nearly 80% of crypto users in Nigeria and South Africa now hold stablecoins, and 95% of Nigerian respondents would rather be paid in stablecoins than their national currency, highlighting just how digital money rails are leapfrogging traditional systems in emerging markets.

  • Crypto infrastructure isn’t just about finance anymore: In 2025, Mastercard teamed up with Chainlink to let cardholders buy cryptocurrencies directly on-chain, a move aimed at simplifying what has long been a technical barrier to mainstream adoption and merging traditional payments with decentralized infrastructure.

  • Education leaks into mass market culture through Super Bowl crypto ads: At Super Bowl LVI in 2022, Coinbase’s ad wasn’t a flashy brand pitch, it was a bouncing QR code that crashed its own site with 20 million scans in a minute, underscoring mainstream engagement with crypto tech.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Pippin (PIPPIN)

Key points:

  • PIPPIN climbed to $0.72 after rallying 15.72% on the day, rebounding sharply from its recent pullback and pushing back toward the $0.75–$0.78 supply zone.

  • The 20/50 MA bullish crossover held firm, EWO remained positive with expanding green bars, and rising volume confirmed sustained buying pressure.

What you should know:

PIPPIN advanced aggressively on the daily timeframe, extending its recovery from the February low near $0.18 and reclaiming territory above $0.60 before surging past $0.70. The latest candle printed a strong bullish body between $0.61 and $0.73, signaling renewed upside intent after the recent consolidation around $0.48–$0.50.

The 20 MA crossed above the 50 MA earlier in the recovery phase and continued trending upward, while price traded comfortably above both averages. Meanwhile, the EWO histogram stayed in positive territory, reflecting sustained bullish momentum rather than exhaustion. Volume expanded during the breakout leg, reinforcing the strength of the move.

The rally coincided with broader capital rotation into altcoins, as PIPPIN outperformed a weak overall crypto market. Immediate support sits at $0.70, followed by $0.65, while $0.75–$0.78 remains the next resistance zone to monitor.

Polygon (POL)

Key points:

  • POL traded at $0.109 after gaining 2.06% on the day, holding within the $0.105–$0.112 recovery band following its rebound from early February lows near $0.090.

  • Parabolic SAR remained below price, while the MACD turned positive with a recent bullish crossover and modest green histogram bars; volume, however, stayed moderate.

What you should know:

POL attempted to regain footing on the daily chart after weeks of corrective pressure that followed its January spike toward $0.180. The token bounced from the $0.088–$0.092 region earlier this month and has since been consolidating beneath the $0.112 resistance level.

The Parabolic SAR flipped below the candles during the rebound and continues to signal short-term upside bias. Meanwhile, the MACD line crossed above the signal line after an extended negative phase, with the histogram shifting into shallow green territory. That momentum recovery remained measured rather than forceful, as volume did not expand meaningfully during the latest advance.

The move appeared tied to mild capital rotation into select altcoins despite a cautious broader market backdrop. Immediate support rests at $0.105, while $0.112 remains the range ceiling to watch.

Toncoin (TON)

Key points:

  • TON closed at $1.36 after edging up 1.41%, maintaining ground above the $1.30 support zone following its recent pullback.

  • The 20 MA remained below the 50 MA with both sloping downward, RSI hovered near 43, and the recent uptick came alongside a 26.4% rise in trading volume confirming participation.

What you should know:

TON continued to trade within a broader corrective structure that began after its late 2025 highs near $2.30. The token slipped toward $1.27 earlier this month before stabilizing and forming a short-term base between $1.30 and $1.45. The latest session printed a modest recovery candle within that range.

Trend structure has not flipped bullish. The 20 MA stayed beneath the 50 MA, and both averages continued pointing lower, reflecting lingering medium-term pressure. Meanwhile, RSI rebounded from oversold territory but remained below the neutral 50 level, signaling that momentum recovery is still developing rather than accelerating.

The recent strength coincided with TON outperforming a weak broader market, while a 26.4% rise in trading volume confirmed active participation. Immediate support stands at $1.30, with $1.45 acting as near-term resistance to monitor.

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