The end of altcoin season?

March 06, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

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Altcoin season is dead? Bitwise CIO says the next cycle will look very different

Key points:

  • Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the era of market-wide altcoin rallies is over, predicting that future gains will concentrate in projects with real-world utility.

  • Falling social chatter around “altseason” and weak altcoin performance highlight growing retail apathy toward the sector, though historically such disinterest has sometimes preceded rebounds.

News - The long-anticipated “altcoin season” may not return in the form many traders expect. According to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, the traditional cycle where capital rotates broadly from Bitcoin into Ethereum and then across the altcoin market may be over.

Instead, Hougan believes the next phase could reward projects with clear use cases and sustainable business models. Rather than a rising tide lifting every token, capital may increasingly concentrate in assets with real-world traction.

This outlook challenges the classic crypto cycle narrative seen in previous bull runs, where speculative capital flowed quickly from major assets into smaller tokens.

A more selective altcoin cycle - Hougan expects the next cycle to be far more differentiated. Tokens tied to large and operational businesses, particularly in sectors like decentralized finance, could see renewed investor attention if markets begin reassessing their valuations.

Meanwhile, macro sentiment continues to favor Bitcoin. Macroeconomist Lyn Alden recently argued that Bitcoin could outperform gold over the next few years, noting that sentiment toward BTC remains unusually negative despite its role as a macro hedge.

Structural changes in the industry may also be limiting a broad altcoin rally. Expanding token supply, low-float high-valuation launches, and competition from derivatives and prediction markets have diluted capital across the ecosystem.

Sentiment collapse could be a contrarian signal - Despite the pessimism, some indicators hint at a possible shift. Social media mentions of “altseason” have fallen to their lowest level in roughly two years.

Historically, such periods of extreme apathy have often preceded rebounds. However, analysts note that any sustained altcoin recovery may depend heavily on Bitcoin stabilizing first.

Vancouver’s Bitcoin reserve plan hits legal roadblock as Canada tests tokenized finance

Key points:

  • Vancouver city staff say Bitcoin cannot be held in municipal reserves under the Vancouver Charter, recommending the city drop its proposed Bitcoin reserve initiative.

  • Meanwhile, Canada’s central bank and major lenders are experimenting with tokenized bonds, highlighting a different path for blockchain adoption in traditional finance.

News - Vancouver’s attempt to position itself as a “Bitcoin-friendly city” has encountered a legal hurdle after municipal officials concluded that Bitcoin cannot be held as part of the city’s financial reserves.

A staff report ahead of a city council meeting determined that the Vancouver Charter and provincial financial regulations restrict municipal investments to conservative instruments such as government securities, municipal bonds, bank deposits and highly-rated commercial paper. As a result, Bitcoin does not qualify as an allowable asset for the city’s treasury.

The proposal, originally introduced by Mayor Ken Sim in late 2024, aimed to explore whether Vancouver could diversify part of its reserves into Bitcoin and potentially accept cryptocurrency for municipal payments. City staff have now recommended closing the motion after concluding that the legal framework governing municipal investments does not permit such holdings.

Why the proposal stalled - Municipal investment laws in Vancouver strictly limit how public funds can be allocated, leaving little room for assets outside traditional financial instruments. Since cryptocurrencies are not recognized within the city’s approved investment categories, the proposal faced legal barriers from the start.

Despite the setback, the concept of integrating crypto into city operations may not be entirely off the table. Officials suggested Vancouver could still explore accepting Bitcoin for taxes or municipal fees, provided any payments are immediately converted into Canadian dollars.

Canada tests blockchain in traditional finance - While Vancouver faces legal constraints around Bitcoin reserves, Canada’s financial institutions are exploring blockchain in other ways.

The Bank of Canada recently completed a pilot known as Project Samara, where Export Development Canada issued a C$100 million tokenized bond on a distributed ledger. The trial involved major lenders including RBC and TD Securities and tested the entire lifecycle of a bond, from issuance and bidding to trading, settlement and redemption.

The experiment also used tokenized versions of wholesale Canadian dollars for settlement, demonstrating how distributed ledger technology could streamline traditional financial markets.

Dubai orders KuCoin to halt unlicensed crypto operations

Key points:

  • Dubai’s VARA has ordered KuCoin-linked entities to stop offering crypto services in the emirate, citing a lack of proper licensing.

  • The directive comes as KuCoin also faces compliance scrutiny in Europe, where regulators recently halted new business activities at its Austrian subsidiary.

News - Dubai’s crypto regulator has ordered several entities operating under the KuCoin brand to immediately stop offering virtual asset services in the emirate, saying the exchange lacks the necessary license to operate there.

The Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) identified Phoenixfin Pte Ltd, MEK Global Limited, Peken Global Limited, and KuCoin Exchange EU GmbH as companies promoting services under the KuCoin name while targeting Dubai users. According to VARA, none of these entities hold authorization to provide virtual asset services in or from Dubai.

Authorities said any promotion, advertising, or solicitation tied to the exchange had not been approved and therefore violated the emirate’s regulatory framework. The regulator warned that engaging with unlicensed platforms could expose users to financial risks and potential legal consequences.

Dubai’s licensing rules for crypto platforms - Dubai introduced a comprehensive framework for virtual asset regulation through Dubai Law No. 4 of 2022, which established VARA as the authority responsible for overseeing the sector. Under the law and related federal regulations, all virtual asset service providers must obtain licensing before offering services within the jurisdiction.

Since KuCoin does not hold the required approval, regulators classified the exchange’s activities targeting Dubai residents as unauthorized. VARA advised local investors to verify that platforms appear on its public register of licensed providers before transacting.

Regulatory pressure extends beyond Dubai - The enforcement action follows separate regulatory scrutiny in Europe. Austria’s Financial Market Authority (FMA) recently restricted KuCoin’s European subsidiary from onboarding new clients and conducting new business activities.

Regulators cited failures to maintain key anti-money laundering, sanctions, and compliance roles. The company said it paused certain services while working to address those compliance requirements.

The developments highlight how regulators across multiple jurisdictions are tightening oversight of cryptocurrency platforms as global rules for the industry continue to evolve.

Strike breaks into New York’s strict crypto market

Key points:

  • Strike has received a BitLicense and money transmitter license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, allowing it to operate in one of the most tightly regulated crypto markets in the U.S.

  • The approval enables New York residents and businesses to access Strike’s Bitcoin services, including trading, bill payments, and converting direct-deposited wages into BTC.

News - Bitcoin payments platform Strike has secured a BitLicense and a money transmitter license from the New York State Department of Financial Services, clearing the way for the company to offer its services across New York.

The approval allows Strike to provide a range of Bitcoin-based financial tools to individuals and businesses in the state. These include buying and selling Bitcoin, setting up recurring purchases, and converting direct-deposited paychecks into Bitcoin. Users can also pay bills such as utilities, mortgages, and credit card balances directly from their Bitcoin holdings.

New York has long been one of the most tightly regulated jurisdictions for digital asset companies. The BitLicense framework requires firms to meet strict compliance standards, including capital reserve requirements, cybersecurity oversight, and anti-money laundering (AML) controls.

What the license means for Strike - With the approval, Strike joins a relatively small group of companies authorized to operate under New York’s digital asset regulatory framework. Other firms holding BitLicenses include Coinbase, Circle, MoonPay, eToro, and Robinhood.

Strike said customer funds remain segregated from company operations, with both Bitcoin and cash balances held one-to-one. The platform also supports price-triggered orders and automated purchases that allow users to schedule recurring Bitcoin investments.

The approval comes as Strike continues expanding its Bitcoin-focused financial services in the United States.

Expansion plans and industry context - Strike has previously outlined plans to introduce Bitcoin-backed lending products that would allow users to borrow fiat currency while continuing to hold their Bitcoin.

The move would place the company in a segment of the crypto industry that saw several major failures during the 2022 market downturn, when lenders including BlockFi, Celsius, and Genesis filed for bankruptcy.

New York regulators have also taken action against licensed firms that fell short on compliance. One recent example involved Genesis Global Trading, which surrendered its BitLicense and paid penalties after regulatory findings tied to its AML and cybersecurity programs.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • U.S. government crypto contractor allegedly stole millions from the very wallets he helped manage: In March 2026, the FBI arrested John Daghita, a contractor linked to the U.S. Marshals Service after investigators (including ZachXBT) alleged he stole about $46 million in cryptocurrency from government-controlled wallets, exposing risks tied to outsourcing custody of seized digital assets.

  • A Florida crypto firm allegedly operated as a $328 million Ponzi scheme: In February 2026, U.S. authorities arrested Goliath Ventures CEO Christopher Alexander Delgado, accusing the firm of running a multi-year crypto investment fraud that defrauded investors of at least $328 million between 2023 and 2026.

  • A hotel seminar “crypto investment club” turned out to be a ₹100 crore ($12 million) scam: Indian cybercrime police uncovered a fake cryptocurrency platform promoted through seminars promising massive returns, with investigators estimating the scheme duped roughly 1,500 investors before withdrawals were blocked and the website disappeared.

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Top 3 coins of the day

River (RIVER)

Key points:

  • RIVER jumped to around $19.62 after briefly touching $21.37, extending its sharp rally from the February base near $8.50.

  • Parabolic SAR stayed below the candles while the MACD histogram flipped back into positive territory, pointing to strengthening bullish momentum.

What you should know:

RIVER rallied strongly and pushed toward the $21 region before easing slightly, continuing the recovery that began after the February low near $8.50. The move marked one of the strongest short-term advances among mid-cap altcoins during the latest session.

Trend signals remained supportive. Parabolic SAR dots stayed below price, confirming the current bullish structure, while the MACD histogram expanded into positive territory, suggesting that buying momentum accelerated again after the earlier pullback.

The rally also coincided with a clear increase in trading activity, reinforcing the idea that the move was supported by genuine market participation rather than thin liquidity.

Immediate resistance sits near $21–$22, while $19.5 now acts as the first support level. A deeper pullback could revisit the $18 area if momentum cools.

Internet Computer (ICP)

Key points:

  • ICP climbed to about $2.61 after testing $2.64 during the session, extending its recovery from the late-February floor near $2.20.

  • Price moved above the 9-day SMA near $2.47 while the Awesome Oscillator turned positive again near the zero line, signaling fading bearish pressure.

What you should know:

ICP strengthened modestly as buyers continued rebuilding momentum after the late-February dip toward the $2.20 region. The token gradually pushed higher in recent sessions and briefly reached the $2.64 area, marking its strongest move since mid-February.

Short-term structure improved once ICP reclaimed the 9-day SMA around $2.47, which now acts as the first support level to monitor. Holding above this level keeps the current rebound intact.

Momentum indicators also showed early signs of stabilization. The Awesome Oscillator flipped back into green territory near the zero line, indicating that selling pressure had begun fading.

Immediate resistance sits near $2.65–$2.80, while $2.47 remains the key support level. A deeper pullback could revisit $2.20 if momentum weakens.

TRON (TRX)

Key points:

  • TRX traded around $0.286 after touching $0.287 during the session, holding steady despite broader market weakness.

  • RSI hovered near 53 while price moved within the middle portion of its Bollinger structure, reflecting neutral momentum and tightening volatility.

What you should know:

TRX moved modestly higher and held near the $0.287 area, showing relative stability while several major cryptocurrencies declined during the same period. The token largely remained within a narrow trading band, suggesting consolidation rather than a strong directional breakout.

Volatility appeared limited. Price stayed within the central portion of the Bollinger structure, indicating that the market is currently ranging rather than trending aggressively.

Momentum also remained balanced. The RSI hovered slightly above the midpoint near 53, pointing to neutral conditions where neither buyers nor sellers held a decisive advantage.

Volume stayed relatively steady without significant spikes, reinforcing the idea that recent price action reflected gradual positioning rather than strong speculative inflows.

Immediate resistance sits near $0.295, while $0.285 and $0.28 remain the key support levels to watch.

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