Time to worry, Bitcoin traders?

September 26, 2025

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

‘Exhausted’ Bitcoin might be nearing the end of its cycle

Key points:

  • After holding steady at around $112K for a few days, Bitcoin dropped by 2% to hit $109K.

  • On-chain analysis hinted at the cryptocurrency’s cycle running out of steam.

News - Bitcoin’s September went from bad to worse recently after the world’s largest cryptocurrency fell on the charts once again, from around $112K to $109K. This bearishness was underlined by the Fear and Greed Index, with the same flashing a reading of 32 at press time - Down from 52 just last week.

Could deeper corrections be in store for Bitcoin though? According to on-chain data analysis, that might be the case. Especially if BTC continues to slide past its support levels.

All the signs of exhaustion - According to Glassnode, the cryptocurrency’s long-term holders realized 3.4M BTC in profits recently. All while Spot Bitcoin ETFs’ inflows slowed down after the Federal Reserve cut rates last week. This could be a sign of “exhaustion,” especially since the aforementioned figures were last seen during previous market cycle tops.

That’s not all though as according to 10x Research’s Mark Thielen, some Bitcoin holders may be starting to sell their holdings at a loss. Historically, a development like this is seen as evidence of market stress.

At the time of writing, the Short-term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) appeared to close in on zero too. This suggested that new holders may be tempted to trigger liquidations in an attempt to cut their losses.

‘Uptober’ effect no more? - As it stands, it’s anyone’s guess where Bitcoin’s price will head to next. October has traditionally been a strong bullish month for the cryptocurrency. However, 2025 might be different. According to 10x Research,

“This year, traders are positioned for another October rally, yet the usual catalysts appear to be missing. Key technical levels are converging, and the next decisive move could be as large as $20,000 in either direction. Options markets are flashing warning signals, with traders leaning heavily against a breakout. The setup suggests that the biggest surprise of Q4 may not be what most investors are betting on.”

Flare Network launches FXRP, brings XRP to DeFi

Key points:

  • FXRP, a wrapped version of XRP, will allow the token to be used in Decentralized Finance (DeFi) applications.

  • Flare also plans to expand the FAssets system to include wrapped versions of Bitcoin, Dogecoin.

News - Flare Network is in the news today after it launched its FAssets Protocol, starting with FXRP v1, a version of XRP designed for DeFi. According to RippleX, the development arm of Ripple Labs, FXRP will enable lending, borrowing, and yield generation opportunities that XRP holders couldn’t take advantage of previously.

This roll-out will be the first time that XRP, a non-smart contract, will be used in a composable DeFi system without a third party.

The roll-out itself, however, will be phased and gradual in nature. As it stands, the network has capped FXRP issuance at 5 million units per week. This cap will be pushed higher in the coming weeks and months.

“A momentous moment” - As expected, early adoption numbers have been pretty positive. According to XRP validator Vet_XO, XRP worth over $7M flowed into Flare’s core vault within hours of the announcement. As the minting progresses, these figures are likely to climb higher.

According to Flare co-founder Hugo Philion,

“This is a momentous moment and both the culmination of work we have been doing since the beginning and also the start of the next phase. One of many momentous things that will be coming in the next 12 months.”

The FAssets system is expected to introduce wrapped versions of Bitcoin and Dogecoin next.

FLR wasn’t impressed - The aforementioned announcement had an immediate impact on FLR’s price on the charts. In fact, FLR soared to a 9-month high of $0.0285. This impact was short-lived though, with the altcoin retracing soon after to $0.023 after the wider market started correcting.

Ethereum’s Buterin backs Fusaka upgrade to “fix” blob limitations

Key points:

  • Fusaka is expected to be the most significant upgrade since Dencun.

  • According to Ethereum’s co-founder, the scalability upgrade will have a “safety-first” approach.

News - Ethereum’s community is waiting anxiously for the much-anticipated Fusaka upgrade, with the same expected to go live on 03 December this year. The upgrade, on the heels of the Pectra upgrade in May, will consist of 12 EIPs aimed at boosting scalability and security, while cutting costs too.

In fact, Fusaka is expected to resolve Ethereum’s long-standing network bottlenecks, while also allowing the network to scale at a quicker, more efficient pace.

Ethereum’s co-founder is among those who has high expectations from the upgrade, with Vitalik Buterin recently claiming that Fusaka will “fix” Ethereum’s current blob limitations.

How will Fusaka “fix” Ethereum’s issues? - PeerDAS or Peer Data Availability Sampling is at the center of this upgrade - A protocol that allows nodes to verify large datasets without downloading them in full.

According to Buterin, Fusaka will retrieve small chunks of data and use erasure coding to reconstruct any missing parts. Such a method, he said, is designed to boost both efficiency and security and will be a new standard for scalable blockchain infrastructure.

He also claimed that as far as Fusaka is concerned, safety will be of the utmost priority since what is being attempted is “unprecedented.” He added,

“This is all new technology, and the core devs are wise to be super cautious on testing, even after they have been working on this for years.”

The exec’s comment was a response to Dragonfly’s Hildebert Moulié, who highlighted that the Ethereum network processed six blobs per block for the first time on 24 September.

A Spot Hyperliquid ETF could be next, thanks to Bitwise

Key points:

  • New filing comes on the back of war between Perpetual Futures DEXs heating up.

  • Bitwise’s latest proposal is unlikely to meet SEC’s generic listing standards for Crypto ETFs.

News - Bitwise might be on a filing spree right now, with the asset manager in the news after it filed to launch a Hyperliquid ETF a week after it did so for Avalanche [AVAX]. The proposed ETF will hold and track HYPE - A token used for discounts on the DEX, as well as to pay fees across the blockchain network.

According to Bitwise’s Form S-1 filing before the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission, the ETF will directly hold the aforementioned token and seek to “provide exposure to the value of Hyperliquid held by the Trust.”

Additionally, it will offer in-kind creations and redemptions. This will allow shares of the funds to be exchanged for HYPE tokens, instead of cash.

All the details! - It’s worth pointing out, however, that the SEC’s formal review process hasn’t been initiated yet. That will have to wait until the asset manager files and submits Form 19b-4. This review process will determine whether the proposed ETF can be listed on a national securities exchange or not.

This process can take upto 240 days, before it is finally approved by the SEC.

Additionally, Bitwise hasn’t yet declared the exchange on which the ETF will be listed or the ticker under which it will trade.

Now, the the SEC did approve a list of generic listing standards for Crypto ETFs just last week. Under the same, an ETF may be listed in just 75 days if it meets a set of strict conditions. One of these conditions is that the underlying asset of the ETF should have been trading for at least six months on a CFTC-regulated exchange.

However, that is unlikely to play a part here. Especially since according to Bitwise’s own filing, “there are currently no Hyperliquid futures contracts registered with the CFTC.”

Crypto Scams Uncovered

  • Bitclub Network was a mining investment platform that operated from 2014 to 2019. It claimed to offer investors shares in crypto mining pools, even though it never operated any. The platform also shared fraudulent earnings reports with its investors on a regular basis. In total, the platform conned $722 million in Bitcoin from its investors.

  • Forsage was a DeFi platform operating on the Ethereum and TRON blockchains. It promoted itself as a profitable investment opportunity, one with a built-in reward system. The platform’s founders were later indicted for running a $340 million Ponzi scheme under which new investors’ funds were redirected to others on the ladder.

  • Argentina’s President Javier Milei found himself in trouble earlier this year after he promoted a little-known crypto - LIBRA - on his social media. Within hours of him doing so though, its price fell from $5 to under $1 - A typical rug-pull. Milei denied all crypto-fraud allegations, despite a host of lawsuits against him.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Story (IP)

Key points:

  • IP lost almost 50% of its value within days of hitting a new all-time high on the price charts.

  • At press time, the altcoin was trading at $7.43.

What you should know:

Until a few days ago, September was turning out to be a productive month for Story [IP]. Earlier in the month, for instance, the crypto hiked by over 20% after Heritage Distilling announced a unique treasury strategy involving Story Protocol’s native token. This was accompanied by a surge in bullish market sentiment, as well as significant whale purchases. However, this wasn’t to last.

Volatility came to the fore as the altcoin dropped soon after hitting a new ATH on the price charts. In fact, in less than a week, IP lost over 45% of its value. Its own depreciation was made worse by the rest of the market bleeding too. At the time of writing, the Moving Average’s position below the price candles underlined the market’s recent bearishness. Similarly, the RSI seemed to be heading towards the oversold zone.

Key points:

  • AVAX’s gradual uptrend has been halted and reversed by its latest bout of depreciation.

  • Altcoin is now trading close to its January 2025 levels.

What you should know:

After weeks of sustained bullish movement since mid-June, it would seem that AVAX is finally reversing course. Precipitated by Bitcoin’s own fall on the price charts, the likes of AVAX followed suit, with the altcoin dropping by almost 20%. News of Bitwise filing for an Avalanche ETF did little to rescue the crypto. Thanks to the same, AVAX is now once again trading around its January 2025 levels.

Like in IP’s case, AVAX’s technical indicators were flashing red at press time. The Moving Average, again, was well above the price candles. Similarly, the MACD line registered a bearish crossover with the Signal line.

XRP

Key points:

  • XRP’s losses over the last 48 hours haven’t been as bad as many other altcoins’.

  • Flare Network’s latest update had little impact on the altcoin’s price.

What you should know:

Unlike other market cryptos like IP and AVAX, XRP’s price wasn’t as badly affected over the last 48 hours. However, this assertion misses some valuable context. Especially since the altcoin has been on a downtrend of sorts since mid-July. In fact, since then, XRP has lost over 22% of its value on the price charts. Flare Network’s announcement of FXRP v1, designed for DeFi, did very little to support the altcoin’s price.

At the time of writing, XRP’s technical indicators were all in red. While the Moving Average was found well above the price candles to indicate bearishness, the Chaikin Money Flow crept below zero to indicate that capital outflows in the market exceeded capital inflows.

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