Trump’s latest Bitcoin promise

September 06, 2024

Reading time: 5 minutes

UTXO analysis suggests Bitcoin rally ahead, but execs remain skeptical

Key points:

  • Bitcoin's post-halving rally remains out of reach.

  • Amidst low network activity, UTXO trends come as a ray of hope.

News - Five months post-halving, Bitcoin's rally remains elusive. CryptoQuant notes that current short-term BTC investor behavior mirrors 2019 trends. A recent uptick in UTXOs under six months signals that the anticipated rally is still possible.

UTXO trends bring hope - UTXO data reveals that the number of Bitcoin holders (holding the coin for less than six months) saw a decline after the March peak. A significant BTC rally depends majorly on a new influx of investors, as historical trends show this is crucial for price increases.

Differing view from execs -Analysts like Peter Brandt caution that BTC might struggle to reach new highs if the current stagnation continues.

Jasper De Maere from Outlier Ventures argues that Bitcoin’s maturity makes the 2024 halving event less impactful on prices. He advises focusing on macroeconomic factors rather than the halving cycle.

Meanwhile, James Straten views the recent 34% drop to $49k as a normal phase in the bull run, maintaining optimism for a post-halving rally. However, Bitcoin's network activity has diminished, with active addresses hitting a three-year low, potentially impacting prices.

Market reacts to Buterin's Starknet withdrawal as STRK price seesaws

Key points:

  • Buterin’s STRK withdrawal sparks price surge and market buzz.

  • His recent multiple token moves fuel speculation and intrigue.

News - On 4 September, Vitalik Buterin unlocked and withdrew 1.268 million Starknet (STRK) tokens, valued at $470,000, from the Starknet Locked Token Grant contract. According to Wu Blockchain, Buterin now holds a total of 2.113 million STRK, worth approximately $781,000, making it his most valuable token aside from Ethereum.

Valued at $854,730 with each token priced at $0.39, Buterin's recent withdrawal has sparked intrigue about his future intentions.

Impact on STRK - This mirrors his previous move made in May, which had a notable impact on the token's price. Following his latest transaction, STRK saw a 4.53% increase within 24 hours, trading at $0.3983. Technical analysis revealed a cautiously bullish sentiment, with the RSI slightly above neutral and the MACD line suggesting potential for further gains. However, the latest figures show STRK down by 2.55%, trading at $0.3922, reflecting a shift towards bearish sentiment.

Buterin’s other withdrawals - Before the STRK token withdrawal, Vitalik Buterin made significant moves, transferring 800 ETH worth over $2.1 million to a multi-signature wallet. Additionally, he made moves of other tokens like PIKA and DIMO, which have led to diverse interpretations—some view them as possible charitable donations, while others see them as strategic portfolio reallocations.

Trump vows to slash regulations and make America the Bitcoin hub

Key points:

  • Trump reaffirms commitment to advancing cryptocurrency in the U.S.

  • Trump leads prediction market polls, gaining traction among crypto voters.

News - Former President Donald Trump recently speaking at the Economic Club of New York, reiterated his goal to establish the U.S. as the "world capital for crypto and Bitcoin" if he is re-elected.

He also pledged to streamline regulations by eliminating ten old rules for every new one, aiming to reduce bureaucratic obstacles and support the growth of emerging industries.

What’s more to it? In his recent hour-long speech, Trump outlined plans to reduce regulations, curb inflation, and enhance domestic energy production.

In addition to his crypto plans, President Trump expressed support for creating a government efficiency commission, inspired by Elon Musk’s suggestion, to audit federal spending.

Prediction data - Trump's strong crypto advocacy is proving effective, with recent data indicating increased support from crypto voters compared to Vice President Kamala Harris. According to the latest Polymarket figures, Trump is leading with 53% of the vote, while Harris trails at 46%

Crypto markets on edge as Bank of Japan signals possible rate hikes

Key points:

  • BOJ's potential rate hikes echo August's dramatic sell-off.

  • Japan's FSA tax reform proposal appears to be a distant dream for crypto investors.

News - As global markets brace for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda recently announced that the BOJ may continue raising interest rates. This has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency sector, rekindling concerns about the market turbulence experienced just a month ago.

What happened back then? On 5th August, Japan's stock market plunged 12% in its biggest drop in 37 years, driven by the “carry trade” strategy. This sell-off, which hit tech giants and the crypto market hardest, triggered Bitcoin and Ethereum’s biggest single-day losses since 2023 and saw altcoins like Solana and Dogecoin drop up to 30%.

The resulting $1.14 billion in liquidations and $600 billion market cap loss have heightened fears that the BOJ’s potential rate hikes could spark further turmoil.

More details - Currently, crypto profits face high tax rates of 15% to 55%, starkly contrasting with the 20% rate on stock trading gains. Corporations also face a 30% tax on unrealized crypto profits. To avoid the upcoming turbulence, on 30 August, Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) proposed a significant tax reform to reclassify cryptocurrencies as traditional financial assets.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • Blockchain security firm Peckshield revealed that the crypto market experienced over 10 hacks in August, resulting in a staggering $313.86 million in losses primarily driven by phishing attacks, with Bitcoin and decentralized stablecoin Dai being the main targets.

  • On 2 September, fraudsters infiltrated former President Donald Trump's 'World Liberty Financial' initiative, deceiving over 70,000 users through a fake airdrop channel, offering bogus crypto giveaways of up to $15,000 to lure individuals into connecting their wallets.

  • On 29 August, the crypto community was shaken when hackers hijacked French soccer star Kylian Mbappé's X account to promote the memecoin MBAPPE, deceiving investors, including one who lost 7,156 SOL (approximately $1.03 million).

Top 3 coins of the day

Cardano (ADA)

Key points:

  • ADA struggles to maintain bullish momentum after a brief upward trend.

  • It shows sharp declines across all timeframes.

What you should know - ADA has been experiencing a prolonged downward trend, registering a drop of over 10% in the past week. Currently trading at $0.3198, down by 1.42%, the ongoing bearish momentum continues to weigh on the price. Since the end of August, ADA has struggled to break above its resistance level at $0.36. The bearish sentiment is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is well below the neutral mark at 38, signaling persistent downward pressure. If ADA fails to breach the immediate resistance at $0.33, the RSI could drop further into oversold territory. Conversely, if ADA breaks above the next resistance level at $0.3601, a potential bullish reversal could be on the horizon.

Bonk (BONK)

Key points:

  • BONK's weekly drop mirrors its daily fall, both down by 6.7%.

  • Increased volatility may call for a bullish flipover.

What you should know - BONK reflects the broader market decline, changing hands at $0.0000157, down by 6.7%. The expanding Bollinger Bands indicate rising volatility, with the price hovering near the lower band, signaling strong selling pressure. The bearish sentiment is further confirmed by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator at -0.08. For BONK to flip to the bullish side, it must surpass the resistance level of $0.000019. However, with the price nearing the support level of $0.000014, a drop below this could make it challenging for buyers to re-enter the market.

Pepe (PEPE)

Key points:

  • PEPE echoed the broader market's bearish trend.

  • It dropped by about 9.8% in the past 7 days.

What you should know - PEPE has been in the negative zone, trading at $0.056962, down 4% in the last 24 hours. The MACD line, positioned below the signal line with a red histogram, signals ongoing selling pressure. On 2 September, PEPE experienced a bearish crossover on the MACD, and since then, it has remained in bearish territory. To initiate a trend reversal from bearish to bullish, PEPE must break above the resistance level at $0.0000076. However, failure to hold the $0.0000070 support could push it toward $0.0000063, making a bullish reversal unlikely.

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