U.S. Bitcoin reserve: Big deal or not?

March 07, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

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Trump’s Bitcoin reserve: Catalyst for global adoption or symbolic gesture?

Key points:

  • President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, solidifying Bitcoin’s role as a national financial asset.

  • The order primarily includes BTC seized through criminal and civil forfeitures, excluding new government purchases.

  • Analysts expect increased institutional interest in Bitcoin but warn of limited short-term price upside due to investor disappointment.

News - In a landmark move, President Donald Trump signed an executive order on March 7, establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a National Digital Asset Stockpile. The initiative aims to formally recognize Bitcoin as a key strategic asset, but it stops short of direct government purchases—leading to mixed reactions across the crypto industry.

Ryan Rasmussen, Head of Research at Bitwise, believes this move removes regulatory uncertainty for institutional investors, reinforcing Bitcoin’s legitimacy as a national reserve asset. “Probability the government outlaws Bitcoin is definitively zero,” Rasmussen stated, expecting a wave of institutional adoption.

Market reaction: Short-term disappointment, long-term potential - Despite the historical significance of the order, Bitcoin’s price dropped 6%, falling from $90,398 to $84,967 shortly after the announcement. Analysts at Bitfinex predict rangebound trading, as investors had anticipated large-scale government purchases of Bitcoin. Instead, the government will hold only confiscated BTC, reducing sell pressure but not adding direct buying demand.

However, Unchained’s Joe Burnett sees this as a major step toward integrating Bitcoin into the global financial system, noting that the U.S. is positioning Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a monetary stability tool.

Institutional impact and global implications - While short-term market sentiment remains cautious, analysts suggest this move could spark wider adoption among hedge funds, pension funds, and financial institutions. Historically, institutional adoption has driven long-term price appreciation, as seen with Bitcoin ETFs launched by BlackRock and Fidelity, which attracted billions in assets under management.

Meanwhile, analysts warn that the lack of a defined acquisition plan leaves room for policy shifts. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has been tasked with developing a budget-neutral strategy to acquire additional BTC in the future, hinting at possible long-term accumulation.

What’s next? - The next key event for the market is Trump’s March 7 White House Crypto Summit, where further details on the Bitcoin reserve strategy may emerge. Analysts speculate that regulatory clarity on taxation and banking integration could be the next catalyst for Bitcoin’s price action.

With the U.S. government now holding approximately 198,000 BTC worth over $17 billion, this decision is already shaping the broader crypto landscape. As more nations consider Bitcoin in their financial reserves, the question remains: Is this the beginning of a global Bitcoin reserve race?

SUI soars 4%: Trump’s DeFi partnership sparks buying frenzy

Key points:

  • SUI surged 4% amid a broader market downturn, driven by a strategic partnership with Trump-backed World Liberty Financial (WLFI).

  • Canary Capital filed for an SUI ETF in Delaware, sparking investor optimism over potential institutional adoption.

News - Layer-1 blockchain Sui (SUI) has emerged as one of the top-performing assets despite the broader market downturn. The altcoin surged 4% in the past 24 hours, fueled by two major developments—a strategic partnership with Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial (WLFI) and a newly filed SUI exchange-traded fund (ETF) application by Canary Capital.

According to the Sui Foundation’s March 6 blog post, WLFI has integrated Sui-based assets into its “Macro Strategy” reserve. This development positions Sui within a growing political and financial narrative, as WLFI is closely linked to Trump’s pro-crypto stance.

Adding to the bullish momentum, Canary Capital has registered a statutory trust for an SUI ETF in Delaware, marking the first step toward bringing the asset to institutional investors. While the firm has yet to submit an official filing to the SEC, its move signals growing interest in making SUI accessible to traditional investors.

Market impact and outlook - Following these developments, SUI spiked to a high of $3.10 before slightly correcting. The coin is currently trading at $2.73, hovering just below its key resistance level of $3. A breakout above this level could push SUI toward its all-time high of $5.35, last reached in January.

Technical indicators suggest strong buying pressure. The Balance of Power (BoP) indicator remains positive at 0.18, while the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator confirms net capital inflows, reinforcing the likelihood of continued price appreciation.

However, a failure to break above $3 could trigger a downturn, with analysts pointing to $2.08 as the next major support level.

The ETF factor and institutional demand - If the SUI ETF gains traction, it could significantly impact liquidity and price action. A Sui Network ambassador noted that even a fraction of the institutional demand seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs could provide a major boost to SUI’s market cap.

According to the ambassador, the potential for a SUI ETF could offer a new trading platform for both crypto and traditional investors, reducing circulating supply and driving up prices.

Despite these positives, institutional adoption remains uncertain. Factors such as regulatory scrutiny and concerns over liquidity could slow down progress. The SEC’s stance on altcoin ETFs has been cautious, often classifying similar assets as securities. However, with Trump’s administration embracing a more crypto-friendly approach, regulatory barriers may ease.

What’s next? - With Sui’s rising adoption and strategic partnerships, the coming weeks will determine whether its bullish momentum can be sustained. If SUI clears the $3 resistance, a surge toward $5+ could be on the horizon. Conversely, failure to maintain current levels could see a retest of lower support.

For now, SUI remains one of the few altcoins defying the market slump, riding the wave of ETF speculation and a high-profile political tie-in.

Cardano eyes $1 after 47% surge: Is a bigger rally coming?

Key points:

  • Cardano’s ADA surged 47% this week, with major investors accumulating millions of tokens and extending their holding periods.

  • Whale activity hit a six-month high, as large holders added 220 million ADA, reducing market supply and fueling upward momentum.

News - Cardano’s native token, ADA, has outperformed the broader market, recording an impressive 47% surge over the past seven days. This rally is largely attributed to increasing whale accumulation and long-term holders retaining their coins, signaling strong confidence in ADA’s future prospects.

ADA supply shrinks as whales double down - According to Santiment data, large investors holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have significantly increased their holdings over the past week. A total of 220 million ADA—valued at over $192 million—has been added to their portfolios.

Currently, these whales collectively own 12.74 billion ADA, marking the highest accumulation level in six months. Historically, such whale activity has reduced market supply, creating upward price momentum and fueling FOMO (fear of missing out) among retail investors.

Additionally, on-chain metrics indicate that ADA holders are choosing to retain their assets for longer periods. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that the average holding time of ADA increased by 78% over the past week, reinforcing the notion that investors see long-term value in the asset rather than quick trading opportunities.

Can ADA push past $0.92 and hit a three-month high? - ADA’s rising on-balance volume (OBV) further confirms strong demand. Currently at 52.56 billion, the OBV indicator has risen by 2% since March 1, signaling that buying pressure is outpacing selling activity.

If ADA breaks past the critical resistance level at $0.92, analysts suggest it could climb toward a three-month high of $1.30. However, if demand weakens, ADA could slide back to $0.70, testing lower support levels.

With growing institutional interest and increasing whale activity, Cardano’s momentum could continue in the coming weeks, setting the stage for further price appreciation.

Memecoin mania crashes after Libra scandal: Is the hype over?

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Key points:

  • Memecoin interest has plummeted following major rug pulls and insider-driven scandals, notably the Libra token collapse.

  • Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin generated $350M, but its price has fallen 82% from its peak, sparking concerns over market manipulation.

  • Analysts suggest memecoins are seasonal, with only a handful like DOGE, SHIB, and BONK likely to endure.

News: Memecoins face major downturn amid market shifts - After an explosive surge fueled by the launch of Donald Trump’s TRUMP memecoin, the memecoin sector is now in steep decline, with trading volumes and investor interest dropping significantly.

According to CoinGecko’s Bobby Ong, memecoin enthusiasm collapsed after a series of rug pulls, particularly the Libra token scandal, where insiders cashed out $107 million and wiped 94% of its value within hours. This marked a turning point, shattering trust in the “fair launch” narrative that many memecoins relied on.

Ong noted that Pump.fun, a popular token launchpad, saw a 90% drop in newly created tokens following the Libra incident. The platform, which once hit $3.3 billion in weekly volume, has seen trading volumes fall 63% from their January peak.

“The launch of TRUMP and MELANIA marked the top for memecoins as it sucked liquidity and attention out of all the other cryptocurrencies,” Ong said, adding that LIBRA was the final nail in the coffin.

Trump’s TRUMP memecoin: Profitable, but controversial - While memecoins have suffered, Trump’s official TRUMP memecoin has generated at least $350 million in revenue from token sales and Solana-based transaction fees, according to an analysis by the Financial Times.

Despite its financial success, TRUMP’s price has plummeted 82% from its all-time high of $75. The token’s trading strategy has raised questions, with reports indicating Trump-linked wallets engaged in strategic buybacks to stabilize its price after the launch of Melania Trump’s MELANIA memecoin.

Additionally, House Democrats have called for a ban on presidential memecoins, while New York lawmakers introduced legislation to criminalize rug pulls.

What’s next? Will memecoins make a comeback? - Despite the downturn, analysts believe memecoins are a cyclical trend, with established projects like DOGE, SHIB, and BONK having better survival odds.

Ong speculates that the market could shift toward an extreme power-law scenario, where 99.99% of memecoins fail, but a select few thrive due to strong communities and branding.

For now, the memecoin craze appears to be cooling, but history suggests that it will eventually return—just with new players and narratives.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • In 2024, sophisticated call center operations based in Tbilisi, Georgia, employed deepfake videos and fake promotions to defraud over 6,000 individuals, amassing approximately £27 million ($35 million). Victims were lured into fraudulent investment schemes involving cryptocurrencies, highlighting the evolving tactics of scammers in the digital age.

  • In late February 2025, Philippine authorities conducted a significant raid in Pasay City, Manila, arresting 401 individuals primarily from China and Vietnam. The operation targeted a suspected cybercrime hub engaged in illicit activities, including online gambling, cryptocurrency schemes, romance, and investment scams. The crackdown underscores the ongoing efforts to combat organized cybercriminal activities exploiting the cryptocurrency landscape.

  • The official social media accounts of both the National Basketball Association (NBA)andNASCAR were compromised in early March 2025. Hackers used these platforms, each boasting millions of followers, to falsely announce the launch of cryptocurrencies named $NBA Coin and $NASCAR Coin. These unauthorized posts aimed to deceive fans into investing in fraudulent schemes, highlighting the importance of verifying information through official channels before engaging in cryptocurrency investments.

Top 3 coins of the day

Sui (SUI)

Key points:

  • At press time, SUI was trading at $2.81, reflecting a 2.96% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The price rebounded from recent lows as Bollinger Bands indicated a slight expansion, and RSI remained near the 40 level, suggesting a cautious recovery.

What you should know:

SUI has experienced a moderate recovery, climbing nearly 3% in the past day. The recent price surge follows reports that Trump-affiliated World Liberty Financial (WLFI) is considering SUI as a reserve asset, adding a fundamental catalyst to its momentum. Additionally, news of Lombard Finance launching its Liquid Staking Bitcoin Token (LBTC) on Sui has further fueled optimism around the project. From a technical perspective, Bollinger Bands showed a narrowing range earlier, signaling reduced volatility. However, the recent breakout suggests that SUI may attempt to test the upper resistance level near $3.00 if buying pressure persists. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below 50, indicating that bullish sentiment is not fully established yet. For traders, a decisive move above $3.00 could validate further upside, while a failure to maintain current levels may lead to another pullback toward the lower Bollinger Band around $2.50.

XDC Network (XDC)

Key points:

  • At press time, XDC was trading at $0.075, reflecting a 2.92% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • Despite a minor uptick, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remained in negative territory at -0.17, indicating weak capital inflows.

What you should know:

XDC saw a slight rebound, gaining nearly 3% in the past day. However, its price trajectory remains uncertain as CMF remained negative, suggesting that the recent price increase lacked strong institutional backing. The 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continued to act as a resistance level, keeping XDC from a stronger breakout. Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remained in red, indicating that momentum was still favoring the bears. If XDC fails to break above the $0.078 resistance, the asset could see another round of consolidation near $0.070 as the next support level. Traders should watch for a sustained push above the 9-day SMA, which could indicate renewed bullish momentum. Otherwise, a lack of buying pressure might lead to another decline toward lower support levels.

Ondo (ONDO)

Key points:

  • At press time, ONDO was trading at $1.03, reflecting a 10.19% decline over the last 24 hours.

  • Despite the drop, ONDO saw a resurgence in buying pressure.

What you should know:

ONDO faced a sharp downturn, losing over 10% in the past day as traders reacted to broader market movements. However, a spike in trading volume suggested renewed interest in the asset, potentially driven by institutional participation. The Parabolic SAR dots remained above the price, signaling a bearish trend. Meanwhile, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) showed a battle between buyers and sellers, with the ADX (yellow line) hovering near 26, indicating a moderately strong trend. The +DI (green line) and -DI (red line) were closely positioned, suggesting indecision in momentum. While the asset faced strong resistance around $1.20, a sustained increase in buying pressure could see ONDO retesting this level. On the downside, $0.95 remains a crucial support zone—a breakdown below this level might invite further selling pressure. Traders should monitor volume inflows and a potential shift in DMI, as a breakout above resistance could trigger another rally.

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