"Uptober" hype meets reality check

September 22, 2025

 

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Will “Uptober” deliver for Bitcoin once again?

Key points:

  • Bitcoin has delivered green Octobers 10 times in the last 12 years, but history might not repeat itself this time.

  • Market liquidity and Fed rate decisions could decide whether “Uptober” lives up to the hype.

News - Bitcoin traders are debating whether October will live up to its reputation as “Uptober,” a month that has so far brought gains for the crypto market.

Since 2013, Bitcoin has finished October in the green 10 out of 12 times, earning it a reputation as one of its most reliable months. The last time BTC saw red in October was back in 2018, when it slipped by 3.8%. In bull market years like 2017 and 2021, it has soared by 48% and 40%, respectively.

If history repeats itself this year, Bitcoin could climb from around $112,700 at press time to near $165,000.

However, some are not convinced.

Mixed signals - Market watchers are divided on whether BTC can pull off another winning October. Analyst Kyle Chassé, for instance, recently hinted at an increase in the odds of another Federal Reserve rate cut next month. According to him, an easing cycle is effectively priced in and that fresh liquidity could provide fuel for a rally.

Others though believe the prices may sink before October, with a slight chance of a recovery.

Waiting for liquidity - For his part, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argued that crypto’s “up only mode” will begin once the U.S Treasury finishes filling its cash reserves, with the same surging past $850 billion earlier this month.

Once that liquidity drain is over, Hayes expects Bitcoin to resume its upward trajectory.

Tether CEO endorses Bitcoin as USDT adoption accelerates in Bolivia

Key points:

  • Industry insiders are hyping up an announcement due on 23 September, with some claiming it could be a defining moment for Bitcoin.

  • Major automakers in Bolivia are now accepting USDT as USD reserves dry up.

Bitcoin’s big moment - The world’s largest cryptocurrency is in the news today after Dennis Porter, CEO of the Satoshi Action Fund, hinted at “massive political news” that could reshape Bitcoin’s trajectory in U.S policy. His nonprofit has been active in pushing Bitcoin education and legislation in Washington.

While details remain under wraps, Porter suggested that critical phone calls were being made behind the scenes, calling the announcement a “defining moment.” The suspense was amplified by Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino after he cut through with a broader claim - Bitcoin, he said, represents “certainty” in an unstable global system.

Tether in Bolivia - Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency making headlines though, with stablecoins like USDT emerging to be at the forefront of crypto adoption around the world. Take Bolivia, for example. Here, Toyota, Yamaha, and BYD dealerships are now accepting USDT payments as the country grapples with a shortage of U.S. dollars.

The move is a major milestone in Bolivia’s crypto adoption story. In fact, over the weekend, BitGo confirmed the first Toyota purchase with USDT. All while images from dealerships highlighted signs promoting Tether as a “fast, easy, and safe” option.

Watchdog flags Trump family’s crypto deals with North Korea, Iran, Russia

Key points:

  • Trump-linked WLFI reportedly sold tokens to users tied to sanctioned groups in North Korea, Iran, and Russia.

  • Several buyers also connected to Tornado Cash, a crypto mixer previously flagged for laundering illicit funds.

News - A new report from watchdog group Accountable has raised red flags over President Donald Trump’s family cryptocurrency venture - World Liberty Financial (WLFI). According to the same, WLFI sold tokens to entities tied to North Korea, Iran, Russia, and Tornado Cash - A mixing service accused of laundering over $1 billion in illicit assets.

These findings came on the back of Trump’s broader crypto dealings, including multi-billion-dollar foreign investments, facing critical public and political scrutiny.

Deals with flagged users - Accountable found that WLFI sold 600,000 of its WLFI tokens on Inauguration Day to a trader known as “Shryder.eth,” someone who has carried out dozens of transactions with wallets sanctioned for links to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The Lazarus Group, sanctioned by the United States in 2019, is known for high-profile cyberattacks including the WannaCry ransomware attack that crippled the U.K’s NHS in 2017.

Following these flagged interactions, “Shryder.eth” was blocked from services like Uniswap, which restricts wallets tied to sanctions or illicit activities.

The report also pointed to the October 2024 sale of nearly 3,500 WLFI tokens to a user connected to Iran’s largest crypto exchange, NoBitex. That user allegedly ran a pro-Iran account on X and reposted content about U.S warships being sunk.

Links to Russia and Tornado Cash - Since February 2025, WLFI has also reportedly sold over 10,000 tokens to a user tied to A7A5, a Russian “Ruble-backed sanctions evasion tool” that was sanctioned by the U.S in August 2025.

Meanwhile, at least 62 WLFI buyers were found to have used Tornado Cash, which has long been associated with money laundering by hackers and state actors.

Notably, while Tornado Cash was sanctioned by the Biden administration in 2022, the Trump administration lifted those sanctions earlier this year.

China challenges USD dominance, launches new stablecoin

Key points:

  • China-backed AxCNH is the first stablecoin pegged to the offshore yuan.

  • The $300B stablecoin market is projected to hit $1T by 2026.

News - At the 10th Belt and Road Summit, Central Asia-based issuer AnchorX unveiled AxCNH, the world’s first stablecoin pegged to the offshore Chinese yuan (CNH). Licensed by Kazakhstan’s Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA), the launch proves China’s ambition to compete directly in the $300 billion stablecoin market, long dominated by USD-backed tokens like USDT and USDC.

How this affects the Belt and Road - AxCNH is designed to make cross-border transactions smoother across China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a vast trade and infrastructure program linking Asia, the Middle East, and Europe. Early partners include Lenovo, Zoomlion, and Conflux - A sign that its ambitions stretch beyond Asia.

Zoomlion has already tested AxCNH payments on Conflux and plans to integrate it into BRI transactions. The token is also listed on ATAIX Eurasia for professional clients, trading in pairs against Kazakhstan’s tenge (KZT) and USDT.

Stablecoin market outlook - The timing of this launch could prove pivotal. The stablecoin market, currently worth around $300 billion, already accounts for 7.5% of the total crypto sector.

Analysts project it could soar towards $1 trillion by 2026. For investors, AxCNH offers a diversification option beyond the traditional dollar-backed stablecoins. However, challenges remain; from regulatory hurdles to building trust in a yuan-pegged token.

Did you know?

  • Before crypto, Adam Back’s Hashcash (1997) made spammers burn computing power to send emails, making mass spam costly. Years later, Bitcoin took that same proof-of-work idea and turned it into the backbone of its network security.

  • An estimated 3-4 million BTC (roughly 15-20% of total supply) are considered lost forever; stuck in old wallets, forgotten hard drives, or due to lost keys. That’s more Bitcoin than Satoshi Nakamoto ever mined.

  • Dogecoin’s mascot was actually a dog in Japan named Kabosu, a Shiba Inu adopted from an animal shelter. She died in May 2024, aged 18.

Top 3 coins of the day

Story Protocol (IP)

Key points:

  • IP spiked above $14.80 with strong volume, before consolidating at $13.60 - A sign of healthy profit-taking.

  • The OBV trended upwards, confirming that buyers backed the breakout move.

What you should know:

Story Protocol [IP] surged sharply in the last 24 hours, climbing from lows near $12.50 to briefly cimb above $14.80 before consolidating around $13.60 at press time. TradingView data highlighted a strong wave of buying momentum late on 21 September, accompanied by a spike in trading volume.

The catalyst behind this rally was likely a major new partnership with Barunson, the studio behind Parasite - The first non-English Best Picture Oscar winner. Barunson will bring its extensive film, drama, and gaming IP to Story Protocol while also leveraging its 340-billion-KRW K-content fund. The deal will allow tokenization of real-world assets such as film rights, offering creators faster royalties and giving fans new ways to invest directly in entertainment projects.

Key points:

  • At the time of writing, HYPE was trading at $49.03.

  • MACD stayed in bearish territory, confirming sustained selling activity.

What you should know:

HYPE faced downward pressure on 22 September, especially after BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes revealed he had sold his entire stash for a Ferrari, pocketing over $800,000 in profits.

The news added to the selling pressure, with HYPE sliding from above $51 to lows near $46, before recovering slightly to trade at $49 at press time.

The 1-hour chart revealed clear weakness as the RSI dropped to 35, nearing oversold territory. The MACD line also remained below the Signal line, alluding to a lack of strong buying support. Sellers dominated the market, with repeated red candles confirming sustained profit-taking after Hayes’ exit.

Despite a brief recovery attempt, HYPE remains under pressure and may struggle to reclaim its $50+ zone unless buying momentum picks up.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

Key points:

  • PUMP’s revenue climbed to $41M this month, but the price action has remained bearish.

  • Altcoin’s price slipped by >20% in a week, breaking below major supports.

What you should know:

PUMP’s recent performance underlined a clear divergence between fundamentals and market sentiment. Despite generating a strong $41 million in monthly revenues so far for Solana, the token’s price has struggled. Over the past week, PUMP has shed more than 20%, slipping below key support levels as selling pressure mounted.

The daily chart showed the token trading near $0.0060 at press time, down almost 8% in the last 24 hours alone. The drop under hinted at weakening momentum, while the volume profile data showed little cushion for buyers in this zone.

Unless bulls reclaim the $0.0070-zone, PUMP could face further downside in the near term despite its robust business metrics.

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