VanEck bets big on Solana

February 07, 2025

Reading time: 5 minutes

Solana’s $520 target: VanEck predicts major upside for SOL by 2025

Key points:

  • VanEck projects Solana’s market cap could reach $250 billion by the end of 2025, pushing SOL’s price to $520 based on circulating supply.

  • Regulatory sentiment toward Solana ETFs is shifting, as the SEC has acknowledged Grayscale’s SOL ETF application, signaling potential approval later this year.

News - Solana (SOL) could reach $520 by the end of 2025, driven by rising demand for smart contract platforms (SCPs) and an expanding M2 money supply, according to a new forecast from investment firm VanEck.

VanEck’s prediction: SOL market cap to hit $250B - VanEck’s report projects that Solana’s market cap could surge to $250 billion by the end of next year. Using an autoregressive (AR) forecast model, the firm estimates that SOL could hit $520, assuming a floating supply of 486 million tokens.

M2 money supply expansion - VanEck predicts that the U.S. M2 money supply—a key indicator of liquidity and investment appetite—will grow to $22.3 trillion by 2025, up from its current $21.5 trillion. If M2 supply increases, more liquidity could flow into risk assets like crypto, boosting SOL’s value.

Smart contract platform growth - The SCP market is expected to expand by 43%, reaching $1.1 trillion by the end of 2025. Solana currently holds 15% of the SCP market, but VanEck forecasts a rise to 22%—supported by the blockchain’s developer dominance, increased DEX volumes, and growing revenue streams.

Regulatory shifts could benefit Solana - VanEck is one of several U.S. firms seeking approval for a Solana ETF. In a significant shift, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) acknowledged Grayscale’s SOL ETF filing, meaning a decision is due by October 2025. Previously, the SEC had rejected multiple SOL ETF applications, signaling a potential change in stance toward Solana-based investment products.

What’s next? - If liquidity conditions improve and Solana continues its growth trajectory, VanEck’s $520 target could be in play. However, macro factors, regulatory approvals, and competition from other blockchains will play a critical role in shaping Solana’s price action in 2025.

SEC takes first step toward Solana, XRP, and Litecoin ETFs: A crypto turning point?

Key points:

  • The SEC has acknowledged Grayscale’s Solana ETF filing, marking a shift in regulatory stance, with an October 11 deadline for approval or denial.

  • Cboe has submitted filings for XRP ETFs from WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital, pushing XRP into uncharted regulatory territory.

News: SEC takes major steps toward expanding crypto ETF market - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken a notable step forward in reviewing crypto ETFs, formally acknowledging Grayscale’s Solana ETF application and several filings for XRP and Litecoin ETFs.

This move signals a shift under the new pro-crypto administration, as the SEC had previously refused to acknowledge Solana ETF filings under its former leadership. With this acknowledgment, the SEC has until October 11 to approve or reject the application.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart called the development “notable,” as this marks the first time an ETF filing for a previously disputed crypto asset like Solana has been recognized for review.

The growing institutional demand for Solana-based ETFs has led to additional filings from VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital, reflecting increased confidence in the asset’s long-term growth.

Cboe pushes for XRP ETFs amid regulatory ambiguity - In another significant move, Cboe has submitted filings for XRP ETFs, seeking approval for spot XRP ETFs from WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital.

These applications rely heavily on July 2023’s Ripple lawsuit ruling, which determined that XRP’s programmatic sales did not constitute securities transactions. However, the SEC’s pending appeal adds uncertainty, making XRP’s approval a more complex regulatory challenge.

Asset managers are implementing compliance safeguards, including sourcing XRP from secondary markets rather than Ripple Labs, to address concerns and improve approval chances.

Litecoin ETF expected to be next in line - The SEC also acknowledged Grayscale’s Litecoin ETF filing, with Bloomberg analysts predicting that LTC could be next in line for approval after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

With multiple crypto ETFs under formal review, analysts anticipate 2025 will see a rapid expansion of regulated crypto investment products, particularly as institutions test the SEC’s evolving regulatory stance.

XRP drops 7.8% as ETF hype fizzles: Can it still rally to double digits?

Key points:

  • XRP plunged 7.8% to $2.30, mirroring broader crypto market losses amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

  • Traders shrug off ETF filings, with open interest dropping 55% and futures liquidations exceeding $152 million.

News - XRP continued its downward trajectory on February 7, losing 7.8% in 24 hours to trade around $2.30. The decline comes despite a flurry of spot XRP ETF filings, as traders remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty and waning speculative momentum.

The crypto market's shift from “greed” to “fear”—triggered by President Trump’s trade war escalation—has left XRP struggling to maintain bullish momentum.

Macroeconomic pressure dampens XRP sentiment - A stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, reducing investor appetite for risk assets like XRP.

  • Job growth forecast: 238,000 new jobs in January, exceeding Wall Street’s estimate of 169,000.

  • Rate cut odds plummet: The likelihood of a March Fed rate cut has dropped to just 14.5%, down from 36.1% a month ago.

  • Stronger U.S. dollar impact: A resilient labor market boosts the dollar, making crypto assets less attractive.

XRP ETF filings fail to ignite optimism - Despite the bearish sentiment, XRP ETF applications are gaining traction. The Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe) filed for four spot XRP ETFs, backed by WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, and Canary Capital.

However, most traders appear unimpressed, with XRP sliding over 18% in the past week. Analyst Johnny Woo attributes this to traders already pricing in ETF news, keeping altcoins like XRP in a correction phase.

XRP open interest drops 55% amid liquidations - Market data shows XRP derivatives traders unwinding positions, contributing to the sell-off:

  • XRP open interest (OI) has dropped 55% in three weeks, signaling reduced trader participation.

  • Futures liquidations hit $152 million since February 3, with long traders accounting for $106.7 million.

  • Funding rate remains positive (0.0024%), but well below December highs, suggesting weak bullish conviction.

The steep drop in open interest suggests leveraged traders are exiting, triggering forced selling that accelerates downside momentum.

Can XRP still surge to $27 or even $99? - Despite its bearish outlook, some analysts remain highly optimistic about XRP’s long-term trajectory.

  • Market analyst Egrag Crypto predicts a “1,500% pump”, mirroring a 2017 fractal that saw XRP surge after touching its Bull Market Support Band (BMSB).

  • JPMorgan estimates that spot XRP ETFs could attract $4B-$8B in net assets within a year, potentially pushing XRP to the $5-$8 range.

  • More ambitious targets: Analysts like Javon Marks suggest XRP could eventually rally to $99, reflecting a 3,900% gain from current levels.

For now, XRP remains in technical limbo, struggling to hold key support levels. If $2.30 fails, the next downside target could be $1.60-$1.30. However, if bullish momentum returns, XRP could still retest $4 and beyond in 2025.

BlackRock expands Bitcoin bet—Increases stake in Strategy to 5%

Key points:

  • BlackRock boosts its stake in Strategy to 5%, increasing its Bitcoin exposure and reinforcing institutional interest.

  • Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, despite recent losses, with plans to raise $42 billion for further BTC purchases.

News - BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has increased its stake in Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) to 5%, according to a February 6 SEC filing. The move signals growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin exposure via the company led by Michael Saylor.

Strategy holds 471,107 BTC, valued at approximately $48 billion, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Following BlackRock’s increased stake, Strategy’s stock (STRK) rose 5% in pre-market trading, extending gains after its Nasdaq debut.

BlackRock and Strategy double down on Bitcoin - Despite a $670 million Q4 loss, Strategy is pushing ahead with its 21/21 Plan, a strategy to raise $42 billion in capital over three years to continue aggressively buying Bitcoin. So far, it has secured $20 billion of the target, primarily through senior convertible notes and debt financing.

Meanwhile, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF has become the 31st largest ETF in the world, with $55.5 billion in assets, holding 48.7% of all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investments. ETF inflows have played a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s 2024 rally, accounting for 75% of new capital inflows when BTC surpassed $50,000 in February.

Bitcoin’s adoption expands to U.S. state reserves - Beyond institutional investments, Bitcoin adoption is gaining traction at the state level. On February 6, Kentucky introduced a Bitcoin reserve bill, making it the 16th U.S. state to explore BTC holdings as a reserve asset.

Blockchain expert Anndy Lian noted that if Kentucky moves forward, it could set a precedent for other states, forcing regulators like the SEC and Federal Reserve to classify Bitcoin’s role in public reserves. The move follows Illinois’ proposal for a minimum five-year BTC holding strategy.

What’s next? - If Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation continues, its stock could see further institutional interest. Moreover, Kentucky’s Bitcoin reserve bill could accelerate adoption, setting the stage for nationwide recognition of BTC as a state-held asset.

Crypto scams uncovered

  • Lazarus Group’s $540M crypto heist – One of the biggest crypto hacks targeted the Ronin Network, stealing $540M from Axie Infinity’s ecosystem. Linked to North Korea, the Lazarus Group continued its attacks, accounting for $300M in crypto losses in 2023.

  • SafeMoon’s fraud & collapse – What started as a viral meme coin ended in scandal. SafeMoon’s execs were charged with fraud and money laundering, accused of misusing investor funds. After legal troubles mounted, the project filed for bankruptcy in late 2023.

  • Crypto scams hit $5.6B in 2023 – Crypto-related fraud surged 45%, with investment scams alone causing $3.9B in losses. Exploiting crypto’s speed and irreversibility, scammers lured victims through fake projects, Ponzi schemes, and online promotions.

Top 3 coins of the day

Flare (FLR)

Key points:

  • At press time, FLR was trading at $0.021, marking a significant surge of 16.19% over the last 24 hours.

  • The token emerged as one of the top daily gainers on CoinMarketCap, driven by heightened trading activity.

What you should know:

Flare's price action reflected bullish momentum, with the token recovering from its recent lows. The SMA 9 acted as dynamic resistance, but the price closed above it, signaling renewed buying interest. Additionally, the DMI showed a near convergence of the DI+ (green) and DI- (red) lines, hinting at a potential battle between bulls and bears for dominance. The Average Directional Index (ADX), however, remained below 25, indicating a weaker trend strength, despite the recent price spike. Moreover, the trading volume spiked significantly, which could either support the ongoing rally or signal a potential reversal if selling pressure increases. Immediate resistance is observed near the $0.022 level, with the SMA 9 reinforcing this zone. A sustained break above this level could pave the way for further gains, targeting $0.025. Conversely, support lies near $0.020, and a breakdown below this could result in a retracement toward $0.018. Traders should monitor the DMI for any crossovers and observe whether the ADX strengthens to confirm a stronger trend.

BNB (BNB)

Key points:

  • At press time, BNB was trading at $586, reflecting a 2.60% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • The token recorded heightened trading activity, reflecting increased market interest.

What you should know:

BNB showcased a mild recovery as it climbed to $586, bouncing off its recent lows. The Parabolic SAR dots below the candlesticks indicated the beginning of a potential bullish trend, suggesting a shift in momentum after a period of decline. However, the RSI at 31.02 signaled that the asset was still within oversold territory, which might attract short-term buyers looking for a bargain. The trading volume showed a slight increase, confirming active participation during this recovery phase. Immediate resistance lies near $628, as indicated by historical price action and the Parabolic SAR, while support can be expected around $570, providing a critical zone to watch for potential retracements. If the price sustains above the $600 level, it could pave the way for further upside, possibly retesting $650 in the coming days. Conversely, a dip below $570 may signal a continuation of bearish sentiment, pushing the price toward the $540 mark.

Onyxcoin (XCN)

Key points:

  • At press time, XCN was trading at $0.0271, reflecting a 1.17% increase over the last 24 hours.

  • It was one of the biggest losers on CoinMarketCap, with a 24-hour decline of approximately 8.62%.

What you should know:

XCN recently experienced a sharp decline after failing to sustain its upward momentum, with the Awesome Oscillator transitioning to red bars, indicating growing bearish momentum. Despite the EMA 9 line acting as a dynamic resistance, Onyxcoin's price failed to break above $0.0285, highlighting reduced buying pressure. The trading volume remained consistent but was insufficient to offset the prevailing selling pressure. If the price breaks below $0.0260, further declines toward $0.0240 could occur, while a recovery above $0.0300 may reignite bullish sentiment. Investors should monitor the Awesome Oscillator closely for a potential shift in momentum.

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