VanEck spots Bitcoin relief, warns of risks

March 20, 2026

 

Reading time: 5 minutes

VanEck flags ‘constructive’ signal as Bitcoin risks deepen

Key points:

  • VanEck noted slowing long-term holder selling and stable miner outflows, hinting at easing distribution pressure.

  • Weak liquidity conditions, bearish technical setups, and macro uncertainty continue to cloud Bitcoin’s recovery outlook.

News - Bitcoin traded near the $70,000 mark after a mild rebound, with fresh on-chain data suggesting experienced holders are dialing back selling activity. VanEck’s mid-March ChainCheck report showed transfer volumes declining across long-term age cohorts, a pattern often seen when seasoned participants step away from distribution. 

Miner behavior also appeared relatively restrained. Despite an 11% drop in revenues and softer mining-equity performance, miner outflows to exchanges rose only marginally, indicating operators were conserving reserves rather than accelerating liquidations.

Yet the broader market backdrop remains fragile. Price action has recently formed narrow, upward-sloping channels that resemble earlier counter-trend recoveries which preceded sharp declines. Analysts also highlighted derivatives positioning skewed toward shorts, alongside elevated unrealized profits that could translate into renewed selling if sentiment deteriorates.

Liquidity squeeze complicates the bounce - Restrictive monetary conditions and rising energy costs are limiting how global liquidity supports risk assets. Models tracking money supply growth suggest Bitcoin still trades below levels historically associated with expanding liquidity cycles.

Oil swings and geopolitics keep volatility alive - The latest bounce coincided with falling crude prices after coordinated moves by major economies to stabilize energy markets. However, persistent geopolitical tensions, cautious equity-market signals, and shifting rate-cut expectations suggest Bitcoin remains at a decisive inflection point.

Stablecoins emerge as corporate treasury priority: Ripple survey

Key points:

  • Ripple’s global survey shows most finance leaders now view digital asset solutions as essential for staying competitive.

  • Stablecoins are gaining traction as treasury tools, while security, custody, and tokenization strategies shape institutional adoption.

News - Digital assets are increasingly moving from experimental initiatives to core financial infrastructure, according to Ripple’s latest survey of more than 1,000 global finance leaders. The findings highlight a growing consensus across banks, asset managers, fintech firms, and corporates that offering digital asset capabilities is becoming a strategic requirement rather than an optional upgrade.

Support for stablecoins stood out as a defining theme. Nearly three quarters of respondents said these instruments can improve cash flow efficiency and unlock working capital, signaling that their role is expanding beyond payment execution into broader treasury management. 

Fintech companies appear to be leading this shift, with a higher share already integrating stablecoins into payment collection and treasury operations compared with traditional financial institutions.

Infrastructure choices set the competitive tone - Interest in tokenization is also accelerating. Most banks and asset managers indicated plans to work with partners to support their tokenization strategies, with secure storage and custody emerging as top priorities. Token lifecycle management and primary distribution capabilities were also highlighted as critical factors influencing adoption decisions.

Security and integration remain central concerns - Institutions continue to emphasize trusted infrastructure when entering the digital asset space. Certifications such as ISO and SOC 2 were widely viewed as essential, alongside responsive technical support and industry-specific expertise. Many respondents also expressed a preference for integrated service providers that can streamline implementation and reduce operational complexity.

Taken together, the survey suggests that infrastructure decisions made today may determine how effectively financial institutions compete as digital asset adoption deepens.

FBI warns of fake token scam targeting Tron users

Key points:

  • U.S. authorities flagged a fraudulent token impersonating the FBI to pressure Tron users into sharing personal data.

  • The incident reflects a broader surge in impersonation-driven crypto scams and evolving law enforcement tactics in the sector.

News - A new warning from the Federal Bureau of Investigation has spotlighted a phishing-style crypto scam unfolding on the Tron blockchain. According to officials, scammers are distributing a token that falsely claims to originate from federal law enforcement and delivers alarming messages to recipients about their wallets being “under investigation.”

The token urges users to complete a supposed anti-money laundering verification through an external website, warning that failure to comply could result in sanctions or a total block on assets. Authorities said such tactics rely heavily on fear, urgency, and the misuse of official branding to extract sensitive personal information. 

Users who have already submitted personal information have been encouraged to report the incident to the Internet Crime Complaint Center.

Impersonation fraud continues to expand - The warning aligns with wider data indicating a sharp rise in impersonation-based scams across the crypto ecosystem. Blockchain analytics estimates show this category of fraud grew dramatically in 2025, contributing to billions of dollars in reported losses tied to digital asset schemes.

A complex enforcement backdrop - While distancing itself from the fraudulent token, the agency has previously deployed its own digital asset tools in sting operations aimed at market manipulation. In one such case, authorities used a bait token to identify and charge individuals accused of orchestrating pump-and-dump activity.

The latest incident underscores both the growing sophistication of crypto scams and the challenges regulators face as blockchain adoption grows.

Gemini faces lawsuit as strategy pivot reshapes outlook

Key points:

  • Investors have sued Gemini over alleged misleading IPO disclosures tied to its shift toward prediction markets and restructuring moves.

  • Despite stock losses and operational changes, stronger-than-expected earnings and a diversified revenue mix have supported after-hours share gains.

News - Crypto exchange Gemini is confronting a proposed class-action lawsuit in New York after shareholders accused the firm of misrepresenting its growth strategy during last September’s public listing. The complaint claims IPO documents presented Gemini primarily as an expanding crypto exchange focused on global user growth, only for the company to later pivot toward a prediction-markets-driven business model.

The restructuring included workforce reduction plans of about 25%, with overall staff cuts reaching roughly 30% since early 2026, alongside withdrawals from markets such as the UK, the EU, and Australia. 

Plaintiffs argue these changes contributed to a steep stock decline. After debuting at $28, the shares briefly climbed to around $40 before falling more than 80% toward the $6 range in subsequent months, prompting investors to seek damages tied to purchases at what they describe as artificially inflated valuations.

Revenue shift draws investor attention - At the same time, Gemini’s latest financial results revealed improving revenue dynamics. Fourth-quarter revenue rose 39% year over year to about $60.3 million, beating analyst forecasts, while services and interest income surpassed trading revenue for the first time. Growth in its credit card offering and fee-structure adjustments helped stabilize transaction income even as trading volumes softened.

Prediction markets and cost cuts reshape strategy - The company has increasingly focused on expanding its regulated prediction markets platform after securing U.S. licensing, positioning the product as a steadier revenue stream less tied to crypto cycles. 

Investors appeared to welcome that shift, with shares rising in after-hours trading following the earnings release, even as the firm reported widening annual losses and continued restructuring aimed at improving profitability.

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Crypto scams uncovered

  • LIBRA’s memecoin crash has since escalated into a deeper political crypto probe: After Argentina’s President Javier Milei promoted $LIBRA in February 2025, the token briefly surged before collapsing, with blockchain analysis indicating about $99 million was withdrawn from liquidity pools. As of March 2026, investigators have been examining forensic material referencing an alleged $5 million payment discussion tied to the project’s promotion.

  • SafeMoon’s “locked liquidity” promise ended in prison time: In February 2026, SafeMoon CEO Braden John Karony was sentenced to 100 months in prison after prosecutors said he and others secretly diverted investor assets for personal use while publicly claiming the token’s liquidity was locked.

  • Pig-butchering scams got even bigger with AI in 2024: According to Chainalysis, crypto scam revenue for 2024 likely reached at least $9.9 billion, with pig-butchering scams up nearly 40% year over year and generative AI helping fraudsters scale faster.

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Top 3 coins of the day

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET)

Key points:

  • FET climbed toward the $0.24 region after rebounding from the $0.14–$0.15 demand zone, before easing slightly to trade near $0.23 at press time.

  • The 9-day SMA turned upward while the Awesome Oscillator remained in positive territory, reflecting strengthening short-term momentum.

What you should know:

FET staged a sharp recovery this week after buyers defended the $0.19–$0.20 support band and pushed price into the $0.24–$0.26 resistance zone. The move was accompanied by a visible spike in trading activity, suggesting renewed speculative participation. Market narratives also played a role. On-chain data pointed to whale accumulation of roughly 14M tokens in recent sessions, while derivatives positioning improved as open interest expanded. 

Broader optimism around AI-linked crypto projects, including continued attention on the ASI Alliance roadmap and utility developments such as agent-based payment integrations, added to sentiment. Sustained strength above $0.20 now acts as a near-term stability gauge, while rejection near $0.25 keeps upside momentum under scrutiny.

Bittensor (TAO)

Key points:

  • TAO surged to around $296 after rebounding sharply from February lows, marking a strong recovery toward the $300 supply zone.

  • The Supertrend remained below price near $218, while the EWO histogram expanded further into positive territory alongside rising trading activity.

What you should know:

TAO rallied aggressively through March, recovering from the mid-$150 region before pausing just below the $300–$310 resistance band. Momentum strengthened as the Supertrend flipped bullish and the EWO printed higher green bars, signalling sustained upside pressure. Volume spikes during the breakout phase suggested renewed speculative participation.

Sentiment improved after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang publicly praised Bittensor’s decentralized training capabilities, while the deployment of the Covenant-72B AI model reinforced the network’s enterprise positioning. Institutional optimism also grew following regulatory progress around Grayscale’s Bittensor Trust, alongside ecosystem buzz from subnet token surges. Traders now monitor whether TAO can hold above the $218 trend support while attempting another move toward overhead resistance.

Shiba Inu (SHIB)

Key points:

  • After sliding through February, SHIB carved out a short-term floor near $0.0000053 before attempting a gradual push toward the $0.0000060 zone.

  • Price hovered around the rising 9-day SMA as the Stochastic RSI retreated from overbought readings, with volume showing selective participation.

What you should know:

SHIB showed signs of stabilization in recent sessions after a prolonged downtrend, with buyers stepping in near the $0.0000053–$0.0000055 support region and driving a cautious recovery toward the $0.0000060–$0.0000062 resistance band. The move unfolded alongside improving short-term momentum as candles began clustering above the nearby moving average. However, the Stochastic RSI cooled from elevated levels, hinting that upside continuation may depend on sustained demand rather than impulsive bursts.

Fundamentally, sentiment strengthened after U.S. regulators jointly categorized SHIB as a digital commodity, reducing legal uncertainty around the token. Parallel increases in burn activity and visible whale accumulation also contributed to the rebound narrative, helping absorb selling pressure during consolidation. Market participants now track whether SHIB can hold the $0.0000055 area while building strength for another attempt at range highs.

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